not meaning to attack you....just frustrated at this shitty situation. I need to retire and move back to Wyoming/Montana.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgfan77
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not meaning to attack you....just frustrated at this shitty situation. I need to retire and move back to Wyoming/Montana.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgfan77
I?m confused. Arizona is averaging about 50 deaths statewide per day this past week. Are you traveling all over the state to pick up bodies of suspected covid deaths? How does that work?Quote:
Originally Posted by 99jc
I highly recommend everyone read this report. Directly from the CDC and doesn’t take into account May/June stats:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html
Gutter he's not worth it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh
He won't change his stupid attacks even after a week ban.
Just report, give negative rep, and move on.
Take it from the guy who got a week ban for stooping to his level as well.
Interesting best guess for Symptomatic Case Fatality Rate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
Overall has a best guess of .4%. For
under 49, it's .05%
50-64 its .2%
65+ it's 1.3%.
With their best guess of 35% of cases being asymptomatic (and assuming they are evenly spaced out, which is probably a bad assumption), that would be
Overall - .26%
under 49 - .0325%
50-64 - .13%
65+ - .845%
Yes, and keep in mind that is not taking into account May or June stats. Mortality numbers continue to drop as case numbers go up. New reports indicate that it may be more like 45%+ are asymptomatic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0612172208.htm
As I stated several months back, when a new/novel virus emerges those that are the most susceptible to such a thing (given a lack of treatements, vaccine, or herd immunity) will die in larger numbers. Thus, you will get a large spike over the first couple months and then rates will normalize as it becomes endemic to the population. This is what we are seeing now. Case numbers are rising due to increased testing, people congregating,and lack of vaccine. This will normalize over time with or without a vaccine. It (like the flue) is a single stranded RNA virus that leads to upper and lower respiratory infections and pneumonia and they are both spread through surfaces (minor) and airborne transmission (major). Most of the assays being created now are to test for Flu A, Flu B, and Covid-19.
Still a dangerous disease and vaccine will be key but it is definitely not the end of the world as we know it as many news outlets were reporting (and continue to).
The mortality rate dropping is huge! That fact can't be stated enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
A virus is only effective as its transmittal rate. Contrary to what I've read, I still think that it's either mutated or warmer temps have made it less lethal. What are your thoughts for the fall/winter months with this still in circulation? Do you think we see what we're seeing now or does it regain its punch that we saw in NYC?
Why is everybody so fixated on the fatality rate? That's certainly important, but it's not the whole story. There's also the people that spend four weeks in the hospital, and someone has to pay for that. There's the people that have lingering serious side effects that last for months, and in many cases still haven't gone away. There's the hospitals that are getting overloaded and the mental toll that takes on the healthcare workers. Unfortunately there's no data that I'm aware of that indicates how widespread these factors are, but it's clear they're happening. Please don't fall into a false sense of security just because fewer people are dying.
[QUOTE=Joebob;1258570]Why is everybody so fixated on the fatality rate?
Because that is the most important thing.
I do understand your point hospitals about though.
I don't know where these numbers on Arizona are coming from its fake news. The gov't is full of Shit this crap is exploding in Phoenix and Houston. i have been transferred to Phoenix and i can tell you its getting serious here OASIS Hospital is overloaded.
This! The studies I mentioned aQuote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
couple of months ago being done by Stanford, UPMC, Wake Baptist, UAB,etc, showing infection rate, asymptomatic rate, mortality rate, etc.,were showing this would be the trend that we would see, and now the cdc is confirming their numbers.
I understand at ground zero it can be overwhelming but understand you are talking about one hospital in a country of 350 million people. If they are transferring all covid deaths to Oasis then you will see an influx from the spike they had a few days ago. Arizona has only reported 4 covid deaths over the past two days though. I’m sure those totals lag behind. Just realize that you are there because it’s a national hot spot so you are right now seeing the worst outbreak in the US currently. That doesn’t mean the entire US looks like that. Same reason they send the NG down after hurricanes. Doesn’t mean all of the US is flooding just the area you are going to.Quote:
Originally Posted by 99jc
Keep it squared away and come home safely and well.
Because that’s what everyone has focused on since day one. Reduce mortality rate. You can start moving the goal posts later.Quote:
Originally Posted by Joebob
It’ll come back stronger in the cooler less humid months just like the flu does. I don’t think the mortality rate will ever be as high as it first was but that goes back to what I posted before about the initial spike. About 100,000 people die from the flu or flu related illnesses each year in the US so I can see it being about like that each year especially after a seasonal vaccine is created. Those that are older or with compromised immune systems will always be at risk though even with a vaccine. Basically there will be a combo flu a, flu b, covid vaccine you will want to get each year to be safe.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh
I totally agree with everything that you've posted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
Still waiting on you to provide the names of these health systems that you service who aren't concerned about the virus...Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
Quote:
Originally Posted by 99jc
The focus from day 1 has been to not overload the hospitals. It was never about mortality rate. Based on what 99jc is saying (who is literally "boots on the ground"), some health systems are being taxed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawgology
Thanks for answering my question though regarding the cooler months. I agree w/ regarding the annual vaccine, but I'm nervous that flu + COVID season will be rough.
Your absolutely right that the focus of all of the measures have been to flatten the curve. This was done to battle the spike that would result as a novel virus entered the population. That was accomplished. There will still be hotspots as the virus makes its way through densely populated urban areas throughout the US. I do not believe you will see a mortality rate again like you saw at the beginning of this though. This has been the case in literally every country the virus has spread through. With that said, the mortality rate has been a major and constant point throughout this entire process. Initially it was reported to have anywhere from a 5-10% mortality rate with some alarmist reporting up to 15%. This was an incomplete picture and, frankly, bad reporting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh
The real story will be hospitalization and recovery rate. We won’t know the true extent of the Covid impact for another decade probably. It looks like about 1-3% of those that get the virus get it really bad and can cause sever symptoms that may have long lasting effects. The mechanisms behind this is unclear but I’m pretty sure it’s going to be genetic and related to Dysautonomia...another genetic disease that is not well treated.
Never said they weren't concerned I said they weren't freaking out. Huge difference. And I'm not mentioning the name of anyone I do business with on this board.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh
Imagine getting people who don't get that wearing a mask only has two outcomes: you help prevent spread or you look like a good citizen concerned for his fellow man.... imagine getting them to care about long term health effects.
In the country that actively fights access to healthcare for all....
Imagine. I'm sorry Joebob but you might even be more naive than me in believing in the good of man and how in depth we as society can think. And I'm pretty damn naive for thinking what I think so it's no small feat to be more naive than me.
Every day I read this board I'm glad I took the risk to leave Mississippi. I miss the hospitality and especially the food, but damn if reading this board doesn't tell me that I only got that hospitality because I didn't question as openly things I disagreed with down there and had the right color skin tone.
Do you really expect him to tell you?? Sometimes info is sacred. I'm not going to tel you who told me we weren't hiring BN I'd rather have the info. In his case, his job matters I'm sure. Don't expect to hear it and Bc you don't doesn't mean it's. Not true.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh
Bc only you can be so great. Carry on great one. But I love how you pull race into everything. I don't. I do my best NOT to see color. But I get you to mention it in every postQuote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
The focus on day 1 was to not overload the hospitals, hence the flatten the curve, raise the line. Nobody ever argued or pretended that we were going to change the area under the curve, just the shape of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh
Then, when it became clear that it was nto as bad as we thought and that there were a lot of areas that didn't have much infection present yet, instead of keeping with that approach, we moved on to the lock down indefinitely approach, or at least some places did and lots of people argued for it. What we are mostly doing now (against the apparent advice of all the screaming heads in the media and on social media) seems to be consistent with the flatten the curve approach. Keep everything as open as possible while not overwhelming the hospitals. It looks like we are doing that for the most part and some places are being taxed, as they would have to be and should be if we're going to follow that strategy. If no healthcare system gets taxed and you're not opened up completely, that means you are probably inflicting a lot more pain than necessary.
I still think the places getting hit hard now are relatively lucky. It appears that places with a lot of ac use and indoor activities are getting hit hardest now, which makes me think that colder climates are going to get this in the winter, but they are going to get it at the same time as flu and also just have to deal with the fact that respiratory viruses tend to be tougher in winter months.
SurrealQuote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
100% agree w/ you! The mortality rate is just now being thrown around to justify a rise in cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
In hindsight, and to your point, we should have had a "rolling" closure. The reason we couldn't do that is because there wasn't enough PPE for even the areas of the country who were seeing spikes. This is why Fauci said not to wear masks in the beginning and later changed his tune. There weren't enough masks to outfit every citizen in the beginning. The lack of basic supplies to combat the problem initially is what resulted in the entire country going on lock down.
This is also the reason why we are now divided as a country regarding the virus. You had people isolated for months and losing their businesses and income - only to see their area have no substantial increase in the spread of the virus. They come out of isolation bitter because they think their efforts were for naught.
Large antibody study in Spain
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journ...20)31483-5.pdf
5% positive across the country, up to 14% in some areas (Madrid)
"The majority of the Spanish population is seronegative to SARS-CoV-2 infection, even in hotspot areas.
Most PCR-confirmed cases have detectable antibodies, but a substantial proportion of people with symptoms compatible
with COVID-19 did not have a PCR test and at least a third of infections determined by serology were asymptomatic.
These results emphasise the need for maintaining public health measures to avoid a new epidemic wave."
47 million population
5% of 47 million = 2.35 million implied infections
300k cases
29k confirmed deaths
45k excess deaths in 2020
45k excess deaths / 2.35 million implied infections = 1.9% infection fatality rate
Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
Semantics. I guess now, we have to differentiate between "concerned" and "freaked out". I haven't seen anyone in this thread "freaked out", but there are some who are concerned and others who are dismissive of the entire thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
My fear is that if we aren't taking this seriously and are dismissive of the virus because of mortality rates, it may (just maybe) spread to an area where you live and take out someone that you love. As an example, if two people in the entire state of MS pass away from the virus - the mortality rate would look fantastic. If those two people are folks that you are related to and care deeply about, you're not really going to care much about the mortality rate.
I hope you've changed your stance in regards to wearing a mask. It is a simple step we all can do to show we care about our fellow brothers and sisters on this planet. You tend to be an overall positive poster on this board, so I'm sure you wear one. I would also hope you encourage everyone you come into contact with to wear one as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Bolsonaro got the 'rona
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/braz...ronavirus.html
Wonder what happens if 1 of our presidential candidates catch corona in October. Would the VP candidate in essence be the new candidate?
Here's where things get misconstrued. You can be serious and take precautions without living in fear. The majority of my customers are seniors and I love them dearly, I been doing this for over 20 years, one death is to many. My 14 year old daughter has juvenile arthritis and is on biological so she falls in the high risk category so we take precautions with her but let her be a normal teenager as much as possible during this. All those at high risk should take ever precaution, the rest of us need to keep going, and yes i practice social distancing and wear a mask. The message I'm trying to convey is that there is hope of getting through this. The healthcare professionals I know are promoting the same positive message. I don't want to get to religious on here but my faith allows me to stay positive through a crisis and to not live in fear. Once again precautions yes, but we MUST carry on or the collateral damage from this will be much greater than the virus itself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh
Taking it seriously and realistically does not equate to living in fear. Just because some of us are not downplaying everything so that we feel better personally does not mean we're living in fear. Downplaying the threat is harmful to us all as a whole because it can influence others to not take precautions to protect themselves and others. At least 130,000 people have died in our country in 4 months and we still have a long way to go.Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
Not to mention a countless number of people have been sicker than they've ever been in their lives, pushed to the brink of death, have lingering issues for months, and have completely taxed the health care systems in several of our cities.
Throwing more rep your way since it's been long enough finally. This is spot on.Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker
Wearing a mask and acknowledging risk is not living in fear. Driving a car with air bags and wearing a seatbelt is the same.
It's not that they didn't have a substantial increase in the virus. It's that when it was clear the goal of flattening the curve had been accomplished everywhere outside of New York basically, the goal posts got moved and "two weeks to flatten the curve" became something indefinite, or tied to nonsensical guidelines (like Trump's phased reopening that although it allowed for state and local governments to tailor the plan to match their circumstances, made it politically difficult for them b/c ass hats still pointed to the nonsensical tests and claimed they were ignoring the federal government's guidance). Then they compounded that by basically just saying "never mind", when a lockdown interfered with either their political goals or virtue signaling.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh
I'm out of this thread for good. No one seems to understand what I've tried to bring to this so y'all have at it. I'm gonna live my life y'all go live yours. I pray you all stay safe and healthy. Maybe we can get back to arguing State sports again one day.
Remember this?Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnson85
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jyf...3ys1b7K1A/view
You can't be taking this serious if you have a positive outlook. You're gonna kill grandma... or make her really sick... or even if she doesn't get sick, she'll have long term issues.Quote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
come on over and have a beer with the rest of us ... throwing a pool party for those who understands the sky isn't falling after allQuote:
Originally Posted by Commercecomet24
It's not wearing a mask or acknowledging risk that is living in fear. It's refusing to accept that not every bad thing can be avoided and trying to make other people's lives worse rather than accepting that something bad has happened.Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
A lot of people have died and will die from the Wuhan virus, and keeping kids out of school, or keeping them from playing sports or other social activities, isn't going to change that. It's just going to heap avoidable harm on top of all the unavoidable harm, without much gain unless we get incredibly lucky with a vaccine.
We have already asked young people to bear a pretty significant burden. Some of that was perfectly justified. There were a lot of unknowns and being cautious was the right approach. But we shouldn't ignore that it was a real harm we inflicted on a lot of kids. From being subject to abuse and hunger to the much milder but still real harm of depriving some of them of social activities and sports the spring of their senior year. And we shouldn't sign up to inflict more of that harm without an attainable purpose, and I'm still not hearing what the justification would be. We need to accept that something bad has already happened, and we're can't make it unhappen by putting our fingers in our ears and pitching a fit. At least we are dealing with a pandemic that is relatively mild for the young. Still horrible, but it could be much, much worse.