Don't look now Braves fans

This is nuts guys. The point isn't that speed guys are more valuable overall, it's just that they provide something different for an offense. If you have a ton of guys with a high OBP, speed isn't as important. But if you have guys like BJ and Simmons who have lower OBP but are still capable baseball players, you try and put them in situations that will allow them to utilize what skill set they have to best help the team around them. Hitting them 7 and 8 doesn't do their skill set any good, especially when both of them are as hot as they are right now. Simmons and BJ have both increased their BAs over 10 points during this win streak and Simmons is in the middle of a 4 game multi hit streak.

Right now BJs best spot is lead off. Not because he's great at it, but because we are maximizing his efficiency, thus helping the team. I'm not looking over the course of a game. I'm looking for one at bat where BJ will possibly succeed at getting on base. That's what's most realistic, but that's also where we have our best chance to put up a crooked number. Why? We don't have a ton of high OBP guys so BJ gives us the best opportunity to manufacture something.

Him in the lead off, Simmons with a low K rate batting 2nd that can hit and run, go to the opposite side of the field on the ground, and put a ball in play with 2 strikes to protect Upton on a 2 strike steal. Then Freeman and Upton behind. So far over BJ's 11 game hit streak, that has worked 10 different times for a run scored average of .9 runs per game by BJ. You can't tell me sabermetrics guys that you can guarantee anyone else in the Braves lineup will produce that. So far no one else who has touched the lead off spot has come close to that except for a few games where Heyward was on fire from lead off.

Will it last? No one is arguing that it will. But for right dammit now it is working. You can throw every stat Tommy La Stella has at me, but none of them will guarantee that he will succeed at scoring runs for the team at the rate BJ is currently doing it. OBP this and BA that and blah blah blah. He might be too young for a lead off role right now. Why change just for the hell of changing during a win streak? That's where statistics and overanalysis can be dangerous to a team. You roll with what works on a team like ours that doesn't have a traditional lead off hitter. You make moves and push buttons and see what works. That can suck during playoffs as we've seen, but for right now it's sucking for the teams watching us put up 5.45 runs per game over our last 11.

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Originally Posted by shoeless joe

What if those 18 extra fastballs translate into 9 hits...and 9 RBI. Them they would be a pretty doggone big deal. Let's say he took all 18 of them. Then not so much.

it is all situational...

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No. It isn't situational. It's there in black and white. The reason stated for Todd Frazier's production this year is that he has a player with tremendous speed in front of him, and that speed helps increase the number of fastballs thrown to Todd Frazier. The term used was "Frazier gets pumped fastballs". The numbers show that the increase in fastballs thrown more than likely falls into year to year variance and is not because he has a speed player in front of him. Particularly when that speed player is on base only 30% of the time.

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Originally Posted by KB21

No. It isn't situational. It's there in black and white. The reason stated for Todd Frazier's production this year is that he has a player with tremendous speed in front of him, and that speed helps increase the number of fastballs thrown to Todd Frazier. The term used was "Frazier gets pumped fastballs". The numbers show that the increase in fastballs thrown more than likely falls into year to year variance and is not because he has a speed player in front of him. Particularly when that speed player is on base only 30% of the time.

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Do you think a batter has more of an advantage when a pitcher is worried about the runner at 1st?

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Originally Posted by Dawg61

Somehow this debate has morphed into how many fastballs Todd Frazier is seeing. That's just a portion of the reason why Frazier is suddenly an All-Star this year when last year he was not. How about how many hits he's gotten because the defense is worried about Hamilton and can't shift or how many hits he's gotten while Hamilton is attempting to steal leaving a huge hole on the 2b/1b side or how many pitches in the zone is he seeing with Hamilton on base or how much effect does Hamilton have by taking the pitchers concentration off the batter and worried about him stealing? None of these questions can be answered easily but you've got to make the assumption at this point that Billy Hamilton is having an effect on Todd Frazier AND Devin Mesoraco imo too. Todd Frazier in 2013 had 63 R 19 HR 73 RBI and 6 SB. This year he's got before the ASB 53 R 17 HR 47 RBI and 13 SB. Billy Hamilton is going to help Frazier make an extra 60-80 million dollars at this rate. And let's not forget who the Reds had leading off last year too. Shin-Soo Choo whose considered an elite leadoff hitter. Todd Frazier 2014 is destroying Todd Frazier 2013.

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Todd Frazier's jump in hits has everything to do with his patient approach at the plate and very little to do with Billy Hamilton hitting in front of him. I know that with Hamilton being from Mississippi and all that we want him to be this outstanding player. He's not though. He's got outstanding speed, but his .309 OBP diminishes his overall value as a player. I absolutely would not hit him in the lead off spot if I were a manager. He would hit 6th in the order with singles hitters behind him, because the numbers show that stolen bases have more value when you have singles hitters behind the stolen base threat and less value when you are hitting sluggers behind him.

In the most superstitious sport there is, I find it ridiculous you want fredi to change his lineup so drastically in the midst of the best stretch of baseball the braves have played all year.

Fredi addressing the team, "hey guys I've been doing some studying and sabermetrics says I should completely change the lineup..."

Then fredi becomes an idiot to his players.

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Originally Posted by KB21

Todd Frazier's jump in hits has everything to do with his patient approach at the plate and very little to do with Billy Hamilton hitting in front of him. I know that with Hamilton being from Mississippi and all that we want him to be this outstanding player. He's not though. He's got outstanding speed, but his .309 OBP diminishes his overall value as a player. I absolutely would not hit him in the lead off spot if I were a manager. He would hit 6th in the order with singles hitters behind him, because the numbers show that stolen bases have more value when you have singles hitters behind the stolen base threat and less value when you are hitting sluggers behind him.

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Ever thought Frazier's patient approach was to give Hamilton a chance to run? If so, Hamilton has influenced Frazier for the better

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Originally Posted by MetEdDawg

This is nuts guys. The point isn't that speed guys are more valuable overall, it's just that they provide something different for an offense. If you have a ton of guys with a high OBP, speed isn't as important. But if you have guys like BJ and Simmons who have lower OBP but are still capable baseball players, you try and put them in situations that will allow them to utilize what skill set they have to best help the team around them. Hitting them 7 and 8 doesn't do their skill set any good, especially when both of them are as hot as they are right now. Simmons and BJ have both increased their BAs over 10 points during this win streak and Simmons is in the middle of a 4 game multi hit streak.

Right now BJs best spot is lead off. Not because he's great at it, but because we are maximizing his efficiency, thus helping the team. I'm not looking over the course of a game. I'm looking for one at bat where BJ will possibly succeed at getting on base. That's what's most realistic, but that's also where we have our best chance to put up a crooked number. Why? We don't have a ton of high OBP guys so BJ gives us the best opportunity to manufacture something.

Him in the lead off, Simmons with a low K rate batting 2nd that can hit and run, go to the opposite side of the field on the ground, and put a ball in play with 2 strikes to protect Upton on a 2 strike steal. Then Freeman and Upton behind. So far over BJ's 11 game hit streak, that has worked 10 different times for a run scored average of .9 runs per game by BJ. You can't tell me sabermetrics guys that you can guarantee anyone else in the Braves lineup will produce that. So far no one else who has touched the lead off spot has come close to that except for a few games where Heyward was on fire from lead off.

Will it last? No one is arguing that it will. But for right dammit now it is working. You can throw every stat Tommy La Stella has at me, but none of them will guarantee that he will succeed at scoring runs for the team at the rate BJ is currently doing it. OBP this and BA that and blah blah blah. He might be too young for a lead off role right now. Why change just for the hell of changing during a win streak? That's where statistics and overanalysis can be dangerous to a team. You roll with what works on a team like ours that doesn't have a traditional lead off hitter. You make moves and push buttons and see what works. That can suck during playoffs as we've seen, but for right now it's sucking for the teams watching us put up 5.45 runs per game over our last 11.

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As I have said before, the issue is that it is not working. If your lead off hitter has a .313 OBP like BJ's, he's not doing what he needs to do as a lead off hitter. We are winning, but it is in spite of Fredi's decision to put his worst two OBP hitters at the top of the order, just like the team has won in spite of Fredi since he has been the manager in Atlanta.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Do you think a batter has more of an advantage when a pitcher is worried about the runner at 1st?

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No.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

In the most superstitious sport there is, I find it ridiculous you want fredi to change his lineup so drastically in the midst of the best stretch of baseball the braves have played all year.

Fredi addressing the team, "hey guys I've been doing some studying and sabermetrics says I should completely change the lineup..."

Then fredi becomes an idiot to his players.

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I've been saying ever since they brought him up that Tommy La Stella should be the team's lead off hitter. It's a move a smart manager would have made long ago.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Do you think a batter has more of an advantage when a pitcher is worried about the runner at 1st?

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I think pitchers don't get "worried" about runners on 1st. Contrary to the easy opinion there is no jar of "focus" that means that if some thought goes into pitching with a man on 1st that automatically some percentage of "focus" will result in better outcomes for hitters because a pitcher is only "80% focused" on the hitter not 100%

Opponents average for the league with nobody on base is .247... With runners on base it's .248.

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Originally Posted by KB21

I've been saying ever since they brought him up that Tommy La Stella should be the team's lead off hitter. It's a move a smart manager would have made long ago.

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It was made. The team was 2-3. Lastella was 2-20 with 2 walks. Bj took over leadoff next day and the braves are 11-1 since. Bj has 11-game hit streak

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Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg

I think pitchers don't get "worried" about runners on 1st. Contrary to the easy opinion there is no jar of "focus" that means that if some thought goes into pitching with a man on 1st that automatically some percentage of "focus" will result in better outcomes for hitters because a pitcher is only "80% focused" on the hitter not 100%

Opponents average for the league with nobody on base is .247... With runners on base it's .248.

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There probably is, but pitchers who are more worried about the runner on 1st than the hitter rarely ever get out of AAA ball.

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Originally Posted by Pioneer Dawg

I think pitchers don't get "worried" about runners on 1st. Contrary to the easy opinion there is no jar of "focus" that means that if some thought goes into pitching with a man on 1st that automatically some percentage of "focus" will result in better outcomes for hitters because a pitcher is only "80% focused" on the hitter not 100%

Opponents average for the league with nobody on base is .247... With runners on base it's .248.

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Well those stats include all runners (slow and fast) on 1st. I know it doesn't exist, but I wish we had BA with SB threat on 1st.

Another good stat would be scoring % once you get on base. This is a stat that bj would be rated pretty high at

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Well those stats include all runners (slow and fast) on 1st. I know it doesn't exist, but I wish we had BA with SB threat on 1st.

Another good stat would be scoring % once you get on base. This is a stat that bj would be rated pretty high at

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You have to take into account the number of outs when you actually get on base. Y'all are over complicating it to stretch what isn't there.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

It was made. The team was 2-3. Lastella was 2-20 with 2 walks. Bj took over leadoff next day and the braves are 11-1 since. Bj has 11-game hit streak

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So what you are saying is that your position in the line up effects how well you hit the ball? That is exactly what you are saying, because you think Tommy La Stella's above average on base skills will not play at the lead off spot based on 22 plate appearances.

What's interesting is that BJ Upton was 4 for 22 with 0 BBs in his first 22 plate appearances as a lead off hitter, the exact same OBP as Tommy La Stella. But, because the team was winning, the change back to Tommy wasn't made. It's nonsensical.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

Well those stats include all runners (slow and fast) on 1st. I know it doesn't exist, but I wish we had BA with SB threat on 1st.

Another good stat would be scoring % once you get on base. This is a stat that bj would be rated pretty high at

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It's also a stat that he has very little control over.

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Originally Posted by KB21

As I have said before, the issue is that it is not working. If your lead off hitter has a .313 OBP like BJ's, he's not doing what he needs to do as a lead off hitter. We are winning, but it is in spite of Fredi's decision to put his worst two OBP hitters at the top of the order, just like the team has won in spite of Fredi since he has been the manager in Atlanta.

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This is where you statistics folks will never ever be right. It IS working. It may not be working because you think someone with an OBP higher than him would do better. But it IS working in that BJ Upton is producing RIGHT NOW relatively more from that spot than he was anywhere else in the line up and as of now we are scoring 2 more runs per game because of it.

So yes it is working. It doesn't matter if it's worst in the league. If I run a mile in 9 minutes and finish last, then run against those same people with a time of 8:45 but still finish last, did I do better? Yes I did. I may not have improved my overall position, but I still performed better. That is what BJ is doing and why you statistics folks always get this wrong. It is working right now because we are scoring more runs at this moment than at any point in the year and you can see that by how many times BJ is crossing the plate, especially early in the game. That is called working.

BJ was hitting below .204 before he was moved to the lead off spot with 31 runs scored in 71 games for a .44 runs/game total. He also had 92 strikeouts in those 71 games for an average of 1.3 per game. In his last 11 games he now has raised his BA 10 points, has scored 10 total runs for a .91 runs/game total over his last 11, and has lowered his K's/game to 1.2. But that's not working because he's still not your statistical definition of a lead off hitter?

The Braves were averaging 3.5 runs/game before BJ got into the lead off spot. Now they are averaging 5.45 runs/game. But tell me it's still not working because BJ should be producing more in your eyes. You see the big picture with statistics but have the inability to take the sample size and compare it to the whole and see what is truly going on. You statistics folks always have some answer as to how or why something should be changed and why certain managers are idiots or why smart managers would have made a move a long time ago. That's pure stupidity to say that some manager riding a 9 game winning streak is an idiot and should make a change because you or some statistic says so. You sabermetric folks need to get off your high horse and quit thinking your statistics make you right and validate why some manager is stupid or should make some change you think should be made.

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Originally Posted by MetEdDawg

This is where you statistics folks will never ever be right. It IS working. It may not be working because you think someone with an OBP higher than him would do better. But it IS working in that BJ Upton is producing RIGHT NOW relatively more from than spot than he was anywhere else in the line up AND more than anyone else on the team over that same stretch all year.

So yes it is working. It doesn't matter if it's worst in the league. If I run a mile in 9 minutes and finish last, then run against those same people with a time of 8:45 but still finish last, did I do better? Yes I did. I may not have improved my overall position, but I still performed better. That is what BJ is doing and why you statistics folks always get this wrong. It is working right now because we are scoring more runs at this moment than at any point in the year. That is called working.

BJ was hitting below .204 before he was moved to the lead off spot with 31 runs scored in 71 games for a .44 runs/game total. He also had 92 strikeouts in those 71 games for an average of 1.3 per game. In his last 11 games he now has raised his BA 10 points, has scored 10 total runs for a .91 runs/game total over his last 11, and has lowered his K's/game to 1.2. But that's not working because he's still not your statistical definition of a lead off hitter?

The Braves were averaging 3.5 runs/game before BJ got into the lead off spot. Now they are averaging 5.45 runs/game. But tell me it's still not working because BJ should be producing more in your eyes. You see the big picture with statistics but have the inability to take the sample size and compare it to the whole and see what is going on.

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And we are back to BJ and his .313 OBP from the lead off spot being the reason the team is scoring more runs.

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Originally Posted by KB21

And we are back to BJ and his .313 OBP from the lead off spot being the reason the team is scoring more runs.

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Well his .313 OBP is a hell of a lot higher than it was from the 8 hole or the 6 hole or the 2 hole or every other hole you can think of. You still haven't ever during this entire process made a rebuttal for .91 runs/game scored by BJ during this 11 game hitting streak from lead off. If you get that from your lead off, you are going to have a higher rate of success. We are having that right now and there is no statistic you can throw out there that will tell me someone else with lead off potential on the Braves could do it better, because it's all speculation.

You talk about small sample sizes and stuff like that and La Stella's comparables. How can you argue for La Stella at lead off with his small sample size batting lead off? How do you know his OBP will be higher long term than BJ? Because he statistics from the 7 or 8 hole tell you that? It's pure garbage. You can speculate that, but you can't say that for sure La Stella will do better long term in lead off than BJ. It might be more likely, but you can't sit here and say a smart manager would have made that move a long time ago.

Not to mention the fact you said Todd Cunningham is better right now than BJ when he has 8 career at bats in the majors over 4 years. You lose any credibility you had for that statement right there. Comparing AAA stats by a career minor leaguer to BJ Upton is laughable at best.

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Originally Posted by KB21

So what you are saying is that your position in the line up effects how well you hit the ball? That is exactly what you are saying, because you think Tommy La Stella's above average on base skills will not play at the lead off spot based on 22 plate appearances.

What's interesting is that BJ Upton was 4 for 22 with 0 BBs in his first 22 plate appearances as a lead off hitter, the exact same OBP as Tommy La Stella. But, because the team was winning, the change back to Tommy wasn't made. It's nonsensical.

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He was 5-22 (not much difference). In those 22 at bats, bj hit a hr, scored 4 times, and got a sb.

In lastella's 22 at bats, he hit 0 hr's, 0 runs, and 0 sb's