Those guys have to be interested.......that's kind of an important part of this.
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I don't expect us to land a Cam Coleman or Kewan Lacy (when he hits the portal). I think we have to find a Will Whitson type DL that is coveted by other big time schools, and simply overpay to land him. That is where things are right now.
I would rather sign a few juco kids that are just happy for the opportunity like Ashun Sheppard for free and then just go after 1-2 DL that will have a chance to make a significant impact. Are we going to land the best DL in the portal? Probably not, can we land a kid like Whitson who was going to have a big year if healthy.
We got Whitson by paying a solid amount and betting on his upside. We were right. That needs to happen again, and we need to have the money to go do it. A guy like Tobi Osunsanmi from Kansas State or Wendell Gregory from Oklahoma State. These will be tough pulls, but that is why you have to put a number in front of them that is simply too tough too ignore and then they visit and then they realize that our facilities are just as nice as any other big time program.
We can't make a comparable offer on those two, it has to be a ridiculous offer. If that mean that our 3rd string DE is a walk on or a juco kid, then so be it.
By and large the players are interested in the schools that their agents tell them they need to be interested in. That isn't the case for every player, but these agents basically tell the kids - Here are 4 schools you need to look into. Usually those 4 schools are the ones with the highest offer.
Now that isn't always the case - look at Coleman last year - but by and large, that is how this works.
Ok so by using your logic we just need to overpay everyone, by a large amount. So let's use that logic on a few players. We're going to use round numbers and say we're working with 12 million after retentions:
QB: Don't have to pay there for a starter but we'll need a backup. Going rate for a solid backup is 500K. So we'll need to go to 750K-1 million
RB: We're going to need a backup. So let's take a guy like Javontae Barnes. He'd be a solid RB2 for us. Well the market on him is going to be between 150-300K. So we need to pay him 600K by your logic because we'd also have to pay more on top of wanting to overpay because we want him to be RB2 and not the starter.
WR: We need probably 3 additional receivers. So let's take Nico Brown to start off. Transfer from Yale, he's very interested and is currently the 25th rated player in the portal. That's probably a 135-160K player. Using your logic we need to offer him 300K. Now Omarion Miller, this is the big fish I believe we will go after. He's realistically going to be a 850K-1.3 type player So again, using your logic, we need to offer him 1.7-2 mil. Now we need one more receiver, so lets just say that receiver is Jacorey Thomas from ODU. Probably like Brown, he's in that low 6 figure range. So we'd need to again offer him 250-300K.
TE: Now we're going to need a good TE because we lose Seydou. Let's just use Randy Pittman from FSU as the marker on this one. He'd probably command 175-350K. So using the overpay logic, we'd need to offer 600K.
I'm not going to continue this exercise because we've already used up about 5 million dollars and we aren't even at positions of need. Now, your rebuttal to this would be, "well we only need to overpay on the LOS." While that can be true, you're going to be left with nothing to pay the other places you need to replace production and get better. We also haven't even gotten into the depth issue we'd have under your plan. We'd waste all our money on starters and you'd want the backups to be a bunch of JUCO bandits we can get for free. That didn't exactly work out well this year.
Can we overpay if we REALLY want someone? Yes. But you can't do it at every position. Hell you can't do it at the same position. If we overpay for a guy like Xavier Chaplin or Josh Atkins, two plug and play offensive tackles, then we'd have to go cheap at other places on the OL. You just have to be comfortable, and really comfortable, with what you have coming back and the depth behind those guys. And by the way, there are positions(LT,RT,LG,DT) that I would ABSOLUTELY be ok overpaying at if it was a can't miss guy that you can get if you have to be the highest offer by 200K. But don't overpay by 500K+ just to say you did unless you WITHOUT A DOUBT know that you are getting a player that is going to produce for all 12 games and be a difference maker and a force for you. We can't have another Will Whitson situation where we overpay for a guy with injury history and he gets hurt 6 quarters into the year.
I've responded above - the key is to overpay for difference makers not depth. If we only have to overpay by 200K, that is great. I don't care if we overpay by 100 bucks, as long as we get the kid. I just don't want to lose out on a kid by 50K and then we gave a kid from Temple 50K to play 3rd string DE and make the same impact as Sanders. That is my point.
I know you can't do anything about injuries, but we have to at some point take a shot and if it works like it did with Thompson and Evans then you do it, even when it didn't work with Whitson and Hibbler.
Well the good news is we aren't going to give the kid from Temple 50K. I very seriously doubt he gets more than 10-15K.
The thing is though, I can confidently say this too, we didn't miss out on ONE KID last year because we paid 50K to [insert player]. We actually were the best offer on multiple kids that we didn't get. Kids have to want to play for you and a lot of kids don't want to spend their last collegiate year striving for 7 wins.
Deuce Knight just hopped in the portal. I'll be interested to see how that one plays out.
LSU, bears, maybe even ND will be involved.
He isn't a starter yet, but he will be expecting starter money.
That will be interesting. I don't think it is a great fit. He is talented, but he isn't ready and golding can't afford a year where his starting QB goes through growing pains.
I would rather he not end up there, the kid is very talented, but I don't think he will be ready to do much next year.
Look - I do get this, but lets see if there are impact players that sign with Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, or Louisville that we will really want.
There are going to be a bunch of kids that sign where they can start and make a bunch of money.
Selling kids on a vision of 8-9 wins with KT at QB should be easier than it has been.
The last few pages of this thread are EXACTLY why Lane left Ole Miss. Having to budget and strategize just to be talented enough to hope that if you coach great, stay healthy, and catch some breaks, you can have a shot at a playoff, is stressful I'd imagine.
At LSU, it is more like going to Costco and making selections. Not having to worry about the balance in your account, not having to worry about kids being interested....oh, and you get paid more to do it too. Must be nice. Bc at State you have to find a way to eat filet Mignon on a ramen budget....and that's just to make a bowl game. NIL sucks