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He's won more significant games than any coach we've ever had.
Well Bruce did coach here under Jackie. Not a HC but a OC.Quote:
Originally Posted by bulldawg28
He would fit right in as a State fan
He has a .614 winning % as an nfl coach.
I?m personally a little tired of analytics in most fields.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
I assume sports analytics started by reviewing past data. Well that dataset was FULL of HUMAN decisions, often times based on intuition/experience, so the data includes human decisions, feel, etc.
Similar to markets, and most other things. I love data and numbers and wish things were that easy, but I no longer believe decisions can routinely be made using just numbers.
If a coach truly believes that running the ball rests his defense, then that is a coach who the game has passed by.
Whoever said you have to run the AR and throw it 70+ percent never knew it.....Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/audio/th...y-mostly-dead/
Ted Nguyen: Yeah. There?s this old idea that if you run the ball, if you?re the more physical team, then it?s going to lead to wins. It?s going to lead to you beating down on opponents and all that. But just looking at the data over the years, a lot of the analytics experts have concluded that passing just has become a lot more efficient than running the ball. Some of the conclusions they?ve come to [are] offensive scoring in the NFL has increased over time, and that correlates with passing that has increased over time. And I think a lot of that has to do with the rule changes to make passing easier. Quarterbacks are becoming better; they?re getting better coaching at the lower levels. So it?s becoming more efficient. And the data on the stats [shows that] passing is just a much more efficient way of moving the ball than running right now.
Football is changing much like baseball did years ago. Teams are making play calls based on probability and down and distance and based on a teams weaknesses. The Super Bowl this year was very analytically driven and it was one of the most entertaining games I have ever watched.
The idea that you have to establish the run and that the run sets up play action has been proven false in multiple studies. Four of the main 5-6 offenses that the NFL uses are pass first driven- Bill Walsh WCO, Air Coryell, the Air Raid, and Run and Shoot. There is a reason for that. You score more points when you pass.
This is going on in the NFL now- I suspect it will trickle down to college in the next few years.
It's kind of silly when you think about it- essentially what McCarthy is saying is "I would rather rest my defense than score more points." Which is crazy because the whole point is to score points.
Analytics has data has to have context. That's the best way to use analytics.Quote:
Originally Posted by SPMT
To me, analytics either confirms what we think is true or it shows us that what we thought was true really wasn't right. It serves as a guide.
People also have to understand that analytics is talking about probabilities. Meaning isn't simply stating the chance that something will or will not work. You may call a play that has a 75% chance of working however there is still a 25% chance it won't work. So if you call that play and it doesn't work statistically it doesn't mean that you made a bad call.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZffa_Z_Cxs
#1 nfl defense, SF
#2 Philly
#3 Washington
SF off breakdown...
512 passes, 504 rushes
Philly offensive breakdown...
536 passes, 544 rushes
Washington off breAkdown...
554 passes, 538 rushes
All 3 were top 10 in total rushes
Time of possession isn't a good stat. Total number of plays a defense has to defend against is a much better one. It doesn't matter if the defense is on the field 40 minutes because the offense ran the clock to 1 second each time if they still only defended 60 plays. Now if they defended 90 plays, they are going to be absolutely worn out.
Got to love those who still believe the running game is the most important aspect of offense
you know why the pass has become more prevalent and efficient.... cause you cant hit the QB or WR anymore without getting a penalty called!!
It?s because passing is the most efficient way of moving the football and scoring.Quote:
Originally Posted by BorneDawg
What?s the turnover ratio of pass vs rush?
You have to acknowledged that at least a piece of that efficiency is because WR don't have to worry about a Ronnie Lott separating their head from their body coming over middle and CB can't be as aggressive defending WR. That has helped making efficiency in passing better.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
Ted Nguyen: I think that the analytics community wants to see a team really air out the ball and test the limits of how much you can pass without running the ball (or running the ball at a minimum). And I don?t think we?ve seen a team really push the limits throughout the season. We might see it with the Arizona Cardinals this year with Kliff Kingsbury coming in with his Air Raid offense. I think that they want more teams to do this, and that way, they get more data and see how far you can push the pass game.
How'd that work out for ol' Kliff? lolQuote:
Originally Posted by KB21
I believe he's enjoying a nice long vacation in Thailand or somewhere like that, lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrCoachKlein
If he would have actually pushed the limits of the passing game, he?d probably still have a job.
Last three SB champs:
KC 651 pass attempts 417 rush attempts
LA 607 pass attempts 420 rush attempts
TB 626 pass attempts 369 rush attempts
If you have Brady, Mahomes, or burrow, you should absolutely air it out. What about the 25 or so nfl teams that don't have elite qbs? Do you think hurts woulda been an mvp candidate if he threw it 60+%? I don't. The threat of his run made the pass effectiveQuote:
Originally Posted by KB21
You realize there's different ways to win, right?
The coach you're complaining about...
2022 cowboys: 647 passes, 473 runs
Dak led the nfl in ints
If you can?t throw the ball, you can?t win. Period. I don?t care how well you run it, if you can?t throw it, it doesn?t matter.
I will never understand the infatuation some Mississippi State fans have with running the ball and the TE position.
Think Kelce played a part in that Super Bowl?Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
What was miss state's run/pass split in their most successful season the last decade?
Since this is an nfl thread, what nfl team doesn't use a te?
Absolutely none and the best teams generally have very effective TEs.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Because there isn't an infatuation.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
Have a good weekend, Bo.
There isn?t? We have fans who want to remove Rufus Harvey from the line up so they can play an extra blocker.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maroonthirteen
If you can gain 5+ yards reliably on 1st down, your team is going to be good. If you cannot manage 7 yards in 2 plays running, then you will have more punts.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
KB21 sounds about like Jerruh Jones except for the powder blue racist rebel/bear/shart part and he also thinks he's the smartest SOB in the room as well. I think they are both simply SOB's.Quote:
Originally Posted by KB21
Naw he is the head dead horse beater at the Frau Brewhwer Glue Factory.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pancho
Even the Eagles threw the ball 50% of the time last year. And that was near the bottom of the NFL. Most of the NFL doesn't believe in the establish the run mantra anymore. Now it's pass to get the lead and run to stay there.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
The league as a whole throws it I believe it was 55% of the time. There are different ways to win but some are better than others. And analytics shows that passing is better.
The reality is getting 5+ yards on first down is easier to do when you pass on first down than run it. Only 6 running backs in the NFL averaged 5.0 YPC last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord McBuckethead
Last year there were 23 receivers in the NFL that averaged over 10+ a reception alone.
Analytics says that when you have a lead you should use the running game to run the clock out. Not sure what stats you are using but mine say the Eagles ran as much as they passed it. The other two still passed more than they ran.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
It has helped.Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Clark?
However, the 49ers of the 1980's were pretty analytical with how they ran their offense even though I don't think Bill Walsh realized it at the time. And they consistently had one of the best offenses in the 1980's with a pass first run the clock out philosophy. Same with the San Diego Chargers of that time as far as putting up point although they didn't win as much under Coryell because their defense wasn't very good.
So, I think that shows that passing the ball first would have worked even with stricter rules.
I would like to see MSU actually get ahead of this in football (for once) and run the offense analytically. And for the record Leach wasn't always analytical with his play calling. Like passing on third and one for example or inside the 6 yard line. Probably the most analytical offense I've seen in the SEC was LSU in 2019. I think MSU should strive to model that scheme. Before others do. And we get behind again.
SF 50.4% pass heavyQuote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Philly 50.7% run heavy
Wash 50.7% pass heavy
So 50/50