I don't see how we don't win 6. Is everyone else hitting it hard?
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I don't see how we don't win 6. Is everyone else hitting it hard?
I'm just going to say I tried opening up a bet account to put big money on A&M last year. I know friends that lost a pretty big amount too. Turns out vegas was right
The only concern I have is an injury to the QB position. We are fairly thin at that position with 0 experience in depth.
Barring a Fitz injury or a string of important injuries, we win a minimum of 6. We will win all 4 of our non conference. And we literally had by far the worst defenses in the conference and like the worst pass defense in the country. We gave up 28 or more points in 8 straight games last year and gave up 20 or more in every game but the South Carolina game. No way in hell that happens under Grantham. This team will be so much better on defense and it will give us much better scoring opportunities on offense when we aren't starting every drive from a touchback on a kickoff.Quote:
Originally Posted by Big4Dawg
Definitely go with the over. I think we will have legit chances to beat LSU, UGA, UK, TAMU, Arkansas, and OM. Auburn and Alabama scare me. But the other 6 conference games are all winnable I think.
I think we win seven. The four non-conference, UGA, UK, and Northern Miss.Quote:
Originally Posted by Big4Dawg
We have 4 sure losses in LSU, Georgia, Auburn, and Bama. But other than that- no reason we couldn't get to 6- even with Keyteon
I think y'all will be favored in 6... If you can steal a game as a road 'dog, you're a lock, IMO.
There has been optimism around every new DC we've had except Torbush.Quote:
Originally Posted by Big4Dawg
How's that?
Favored in only half of our games with 2 of those nods coming solely from points for home field advantage.
Consider also just how bad our secondary was, and it was both our corner's and safeties being equally bad yet most of the same guys who stunk it up last year will once again be our starters again this season.
Add in that Mullen has been very vocal about how excited he is to have Tolando Cleveland returning to the starting lineup at CB and that alone should have you beyond terrified of the over 5.5
Only for sure loss on our schedule is Bama. Don't @ me Random.
Of that shitstorm defense we had last year we always play auburn close even with crappy teams. I think we win at least 1 if not 2 of those 4 sure losses. Not that we couldn't lay an egg with say Kentucky or another team we should beat.Quote:
Originally Posted by Random Poster
We also had a shitty DC last year as well that had no idea what he was doing. As long as we are average on defense, which we should be with Grantham, our floor should be six.Quote:
Originally Posted by biggun
I agree. We could lose to the Hogs or aTm. We could beat LSU, AU or UGA.Quote:
Originally Posted by 99jc
I think this year it's hard to figure the SECW and MSU. Lots of "wild cards" for us. New staff on defense. Questions about our secondary and dline depth. Does our passing game do enough to keep defense honest?
Hard for me to see us winning less than 6 or more than 8.
I'm glad you included the "even with Keyteon" because Fitz's passing prowess still has me concerned. I realize it's only a spring game, but for everyone worrying about our secondary - our own QB looked like garbage against them. Did they play up, or did he have an off day?Quote:
Originally Posted by Random Poster
As civildawg stated, Vegas doesn't miss much. Cautiously optimistic they are in this case.
I think there is a MUCH better chance we win 6+ than anything less than that. There are a few possibilities that would make me hesitate to put a potload of money on it though. One, as has been mentioned, if we lose Fitz we would have a true freshman QB learning his way in the SEC. Two, our schedule is harder this year than last year. We've traded an almost sure win in SC for a very difficult trip to GA this year. Also, any year we play Bama at home its a disadvantage because we are wasting one of our home field advantage games on a team that we have virtually no shot to beat regardless of game location. If I had my rathers, I would play Bama in Tuscaloosa every year in exchange for another home game against anyone else in the SEC. Three, our defense will definitely be improved but how much is an unknown until we actually see some games. And finally, losing Fred Ross plus watching the Spring game certainly will give you pause on how much production we can get our of our passing game plus we can't really count on making many FGs at the moment. So while we should be better in enough areas that I would say we have a pretty decent chance at a 7-8 win season I still can't say that getting to 6 is an automatic given.
Do you really though? I didn't even watch the spring game cause it means absolute ****elQuote:
Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh
Whether you watched or not doesn't change the fact he threw 4 picks in one half of football against a secondary most here are worried about. Hell, he was even picked off by a D lineman (threw it right to him).Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
All I'm saying is he will have some growing pains, which could cost us a game or two. If those are against teams we think are locks, then we may not get to 6 wins.
I could also see Mullen calling plays to keep him in the pocket more this year, which would do the same.
LSU isn't anywhere close to a "for sure loss," and hasn't been for 3 years.
Also, I wouldn't put too much stock into the Spring Game considering our offense, particularly under Fitz, is predicated by the QB run game, and the QBs were wearing green jerseys. It's a hell of a lot easier to play pass defense as a DB when you know the QB isn't going to run, you can give up rushing yards without repercussions, and, ultimately, you are auditioning for a starting spot by exhibiting the best coverage you can.
Look no further than the Dear TD reception against Ole Miss....
If someone gave me $100 bill and told me to bet it I would take the over. However I don't know that I would be rushing out to put a substantial sum of my own money on it. I figure Vegas has the number about right.
Barring significant injuries, over.
Alabama is the only game that is a near for sure loss however, on the flip side, we really only have the Charleston Southern and UMass games as near sure wins. BYU, even at home, is definitely not a sure win and going on the road to Ruston, LA has definitely proven tricky in the past.Quote:
Originally Posted by Covercorner2
Uh, all of them have been pretty decent except Sirmon, who was the worst coordinator of either side of the ball in MSU football history.Quote:
Originally Posted by PassInterference
I was told that Mullen said all but one of those picks were on the recvrs not being in the correct position / route because of their inexperience and he said he wasn't worried at all ... that's what I was told fwiwQuote:
Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh
That's coachspeak for "I'm keeping the heat off my QB". But it also speaks to what I've said about Couch and Todd and not getting your hopes up this seasonQuote:
Originally Posted by FISHDAWG
LSU is the closest thing to a sure loss that we have. 16 of the last 17 years. You guys do this to yourself every year and then every year get disappointed. We haven't even had 100 rushing vs them the last 2 games COMBINED.Quote:
Originally Posted by Covercorner2
Auburn stomped us last year @ Davis Wade. It was 35-0 at half!!, destroyed from the opening whistle.Quote:
Originally Posted by 99jc
5.5 is low for my expectations but you don't truly know what the defense will look like. We think that the Jucos will pan out and Grantham will get one of the worst defenses in the country immediately turned around. If that happens, I figure on between 7-9 wins with 6 being the minimum. If the Jucos take a half season like they do sometimes then you can probably shift the win total -1 or -2. Then the expectations become 6-8 with 5 being the minimum. Fitz will look a lot better than he did in the spring but we still need some more passing options to show up. Whether it is Couch, Todd, or Mitchell being the Bear type receiver we need or the TEs picking up the slack, we need something on offense. Our run game should be pretty good with the RBs we have and Fitz being the best running QB in the country.
Our defense could also take a giant step forward if Simmons is as consistently good as we think he could be. Simmons, Sweat, and Rivers might live in the backfield which will help the entire D out tremendously.
I think it also shows how complicated Mullen has now made the offense. We aren't just a spread option running QB offense anymore. There is a reason that Dak was ready to play in Game 1 in the NFL. This isn't the same passing offense that Chris Relf ran in the Gator Bowl.Quote:
Originally Posted by Random Poster
Sirmon was by far the shittiest DC I have ever seen and it was also his first year ever at that position. Every other DC Mullen has had has at least been decent/average. If our D was decent to average last year, this would have been an 8/9 win team. Last year was also our first year in the 3/4 which takes at least a year to get everything in place. I think Grantham will give us an above average defense and the way we should be able to run the football we should be able to surprise some people.Quote:
Originally Posted by PassInterference
If I recall correctly, two of the picks went off the receivers hands.Quote:
Originally Posted by FISHDAWG
Dumbest hire in the history of hires was them hiring Ed O. Just plain dumb. That rivals them hiring Curley Hallman or Gerry Dinardo.Quote:
Originally Posted by Random Poster
Why? His body of work since OM is pretty good. He has steadied 2 programs after they fired the coach. I think he will do a great job. He is going to discipline and recruit- and let his coordinators do the coaching.Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketingBully
Is Grantham running a 3-4 or 4-3? Just curious.
I go back and forth on the O hire. Seems dumb on the surface but can't ignore his record since the OM days. He'll do dumb stuff but I think he'll surprise some ppl too.
We shall see RP. We shall see.Quote:
Originally Posted by Random Poster
Grantham is a 3-4 guy but it wouldn't surprise me if we saw multiple looks but the majority will be 3-4.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldsleeve Jr.
How many of those 17 years did LSU have a gorilla coaching them?Quote:
Originally Posted by Random Poster
The games the past three years have been decided by 10 points COMBINED, with State winning one of them. Two of them were also in Death Valley, this one is in Starkville.Quote:
Originally Posted by Random Poster
They bungled the coaching hire. They should have gone all in and given whatever it took to get Jimbo Fisher and made him such a deal that Jimbo would have been a fool to turn it down. They were never going to get Tom Herman with the Texas job opening up. Fisher was legitimately interested in the LSU job and had a great support system and felt comfortable there. I just don't see how they are going to get to where they want to go which is winning conference and national championships with Coach O.Quote:
Originally Posted by Random Poster
I got down on it a couple of weeks ago. Anything can happen but I think we can get to 6 wins.
12 or soQuote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61