http://www.athlonsports.com/college-...13-predictions
They have predicted much worse- I still think we win the Egg to finish 7-5 though
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http://www.athlonsports.com/college-...13-predictions
They have predicted much worse- I still think we win the Egg to finish 7-5 though
I love it....hope everyone predicts us that low.
I told ya'll mfers way back that we are winning 8-9 regular season games this year.
I love being overlooked preseason. It's a reasonable/safe prediction on their part, we do have a rough schedule. But I'm in the 7-8 win belief club.
I think at about half time during the Okie State game, people will realize that Chris Wilson isn't coaching our defense anymore. I want Russell to have a big year for us, but I think the offense would move more smoothly with Mullen calling the shots and Dak in the gun. I know that won't happen. But I think it would be less herky-jerky.
If we throw the ball to our te's (esp Malcolm) and use Perkins in the passing game, I think we'll be good offensively. On 1st and goal situations, dak should automatically come into the game.
But Mullen's not going to do that; he's going to continue to run perkins straight up the middle and neglect his speed off the edges. I think the defense will be solid this year, but I'm expecting more of the same underachieving on offense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goat Holder
Boy, I sure hope you are right. I'll be honest, I've definitely tempered my expectations based on the schedule and the fact we haven't really beaten anyone worth a crap during the regular season since 2010. Also, I still don't feel Russell and Mullen fit all that well together. If we can win 7+ games this year though with this schedule I will be happy.
I just don't see us pulling off more than 6 wins. I'd absolutely love if we rose up and beat some people but nothing in the past two seasons has shown me that we can. We're below average at running back (not nationally but relative to who we play against), Russell is not good in a spread system, we're not good at receiver, and even though our o-line returns everyone, it doesn't matter that much when they were terrible against good competition last season. We aren't intimidating at d tackle, our olb's are just OK, and our safeties can't cover. I'm just hoping that Auburn and Arkansas are both horrible and that we play well against Ole Miss at home... This season has a lot of potential to be long and difficult for us.
I see things much differently from you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver
I think we have one of the top 5 groups in the SEC at RB- Perkins is good, and both J-Rob and Milton were Freshmen last year
Russell while not great, is an adequate QB. Dak should also play a solid role this year. He is healthy now by the way
Our OL will be improved. I've never seen a team return all of its linemen and not be better. We were also 2nd in the SEC in fewest sacks allowed. That says alot for a team that has a statue at QB who holds the ball too long.
We may be the best team in the SEC at TE
We will be more athletic at WR- but not as smart or polished. These guys will make some plays- but the TE's will play a much bigger role this year
We have 2 draft picks starting at DE- we'll be much improved there. Adding Chris Jones in back-up role should help too
We'll be good at DT. 4 of our top 5 DT's are 4-star players. 3 of them were freshmen last year- they will be much better
Our LB's are the 2nd best group on the team. Skinner is moving to his natural position at Sam- where Cam played last year. Having Wells in at Willie LB will be an improvement also. And let's dont forget- 2 of our 3 back-up LB's are 4-star players in the Brown twins.
We have talent at CB- but it is a little green. An improved pass rush will help these guys and they will do a solid job this year.
No reason this team cant win 7 ballgames
Ok State lost 4 starters on the OL and their best RB who was drafted
They also lost 2 starters in their Secondary- which was 113th in the country in pass defense.
They gave up 40+ points 5 times last year and over 50 points twice
UPig and Arky are a little down
LSU is vulnerable and we are a sandwich game for them between Jawja and Florida
We play Ole Miss at home. Home teams in the Egg Bowl are 12-2 the last 14 years. Home field makes a big difference
This is a big season for Mullen and I expect him to come through.
Thanks to Athlon for still not getting our logo right 5 years in. I really anticipated all the magazines predicting us 6th or 7th just based on perception of OM and UPIg and Aubie getting new coaches. I'd really love a wild west year where the champ is 6-2 or something, but Bama is such a juggernaut is probably ain't fixin to happen.
I'm an MSU fan and with our schedule this year and what we lost from last year I would pick us no higher than 5th. AL, LSU and A&M will obviously be placed above us and given the way we finished and the way the Bears finished plus the fact they really didn't lose anyone of note it makes sense that they would be picked ahead of us as well. Arky and Auburn are pretty big unknowns at this point although Malzahn at Auburn should get them back righted pretty quickly. But given the uncertainty there though we really shouldn't be picked behind either one of them.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Croom Diaries
I should hope you're a MSU fan. All others suck.Quote:
Originally Posted by maroonmania
We'll see how ole Freeze adjusts to SEC defensive coordinators having an off-season to make their adjustments to his schemes. And I will say this point - last year the West basically had no spread option (that we knew of going into the year) teams as Auburn went to the pro-style and we had Tyler Russell. Ole Miss wasn't expected to do anything and they snuck up on some folks as did A&M. Now you've got A&M, OM, and Auburn back with the spread option stuff, and we'll probably be mixing in some more with Prescott. DC's will be ready. I think Freeze will have a tough go this year, especially with that schedule.
Just making the point that I'm prejudiced and even I wouldn't pick us higher than 5th right now so I'm good with what Athlon has. OM may slip back but given they return everyone and add in a top notch recruiting class I doubt they slip much.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Croom Diaries
The stat about Tyler is very telling. 8 picks in 2 games? That means he threw 2 in in 11 games? And two of those opponents were Bama & LSU. Play calling on offense was horrible! Blame the right people. Tyler should've been pulled Vs. NW and if he was we in all likelihood win & we feel better heading into this year.
It's okay to say we'll win 6. No problem, I actually believe the same. But at least come to the table with clarity for the love of God people. Goat, no way we win that many BTW. So let me shed even more light on what C34 is saying.
Defensively we will LOOK better. Here's why. In my tenure as a coach there's one thing that is evident. There is no substitute for pressure applied on a consistent basis on defense. It was one of our many flaws last year that was glaringly obvious. It leaves your coverage on an island and as you are now finding out (I've been saying for a while now) 9 was and IS better than 13. With Autry being a staple to our defense (was on fire late) I seriously think him, Smith, Brown and Co. are going to benefit greatly from a 3-4 set up IF (and this is a BIG if) we can find a serious threat at the 0 technique (NT). When we tried the 3-4 scheme last year Cherrington couldn't command a double. And if your 0 tech can't COMMAND a double you HAVE to bring pressure elsewhere which leaves gaping holes in your coverage. I think Quay fits this bill nicely. For 2 reason #1 Turner specializes in interior DL and his hiring will make Quay look like a world beater to opposing coaches who watch our defensive film. He (when Wilson finally put him in) did this to probably the best OL in the nation Vs. Bama. Jones couldn't block him 1on1. He had to get help. That's why our defense started to slow their offense down. James is the guy that CAN change us drastically on defense though. But is his heart in it? His body ready? As coach said our LBs and pretty good and Collins is a good LB coach. Better pressure (again as C34 said) will negate green DBs. Deontae is one of the most underrated players I have ever seen at MSU. This kid is a draft puck for goodness sake! Watch! He has been playing out of his natural position and will finally explode this year.
Offensively you guys know my stand here. Dak SHOULD be playing but isn't. So drop it. As a coach sometimes you have got to make do. So what to do about Tyler? Take away at least a qtr of his attempts in the passing game. Hold on, calm down let me finish. Go Ace F-wing. In this formation you have 2 TEs, and are under center with a two WR set. There are many things we can use out of this set. #1 when facing pressure motion out LdP to a 5th receiver for another option. #2 You can utilize LdP's speed outside the tackle box with tosses, sweeps, and counters. #3 this also enables us to run between the tackles with our power backs and be down right physical! #4 It allows us to use the TEs (most versatile players) in elementary routes. #5 it puts Tyler in a comfortable position which is under center. #6 It will also free up space for our WRs. Ultimately people it's going to come down to how well we perform Vs Auburn & Arky. We can beat Tsun, we should've beat them last year. But we didn't. We'll be 6-6 and THEN (finally) Dan will be able to coach a QB he recruited!
Is Tyler comfortable under center? He has never played under center.
Tyler is a Pro-set QB by way of his natural ability. I have seen him in this set and he looks truly comfortable in it. Plus they ran this formation last year a couple of times especially Vs USA.
Solid post, C57. Thanks for this.
Is there any reason to think we'll be better in the screen game this year? Perkins could be the best screen rb in the sec, but we wasted that aspect of his game last year
Quote:
Originally Posted by Msstate7
nm
All the more reason to go with the pro-set. So yes. Look I'm not an advocate of the pro-set as a base offense for the duration of Mullen being here. Just THIS year. Also I've never been a fan of changing formation periodically on a drive or to "maximize" a specific matchup. The hardest offenses to stop are the one's that all look the same. So if we stayed in this personnel grouping and ran our PA's (play actions), running, quick sets and screens it would be hard to diagnose from a coordinator's perspective. The only time you should change is #1 if you're behind and need to catch up. #2 In a 3rd or 4th and long situation. That's it! Other than that it is really difficult to diagnose. Much like a poker face. Could we win more than 6? Yes. But a few things have to happen one of which definitively be better. A.) Running game has got to consistently improve. Take pressure off of Tyler and the possibility of turning the ball over and plus dictating the flow of the game. We decrease the possessions, physically batter the opposition and create a more opportunistic situation for us to prevail. B.) Defense must get better on the DL and minimize us HAVING to bring extra guys for the sole purpose of getting pressure in the backfield. We should be sble to get penetration this year with no more than 5 guys (key to it) CONSISTENTLY! But as I said I actually see this coming to fruition. Yes Geoff is a good enough DC but alot of it will be because of Autry and Con. on the DL. C.) Better playcalling from our staff. Look I actually have kept my mouth shut about this as I know from my own experience how hard it is to CALL plays. But just like you can set your kids up for success....you can also set them up to fail. When we played aTm they used a cover 4)3 shell and basically kept everything in front of their DBs. Why didn't we run "stops" to counter it? Then once they walk the DB back down hit them with the double move? Playcalling CAN very over analyzed. We proved that last year. When tsun kept rushing extra guys to get shots on Tyler why didn't we run screens (worked perfectly for Dan's first 3 egg bowls) and draws all night till they stopped it? My H.S coach had a saying K.I.S.S. & it stood for Keep It Simple Stupid! Dumb down the offense and we should Brit find. Stop worrying about individual stats for Tyler.....they can come IF we get the "W"s!
Are you saying that the play calling was bad just in those last two games or on the entire year? I'm confused as to what you are saying with the sentence about the picks behind it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach 57
I disagree about pulling Tyler. I don't think Dak had mastered enough of the offense to make us unpredictable, and I think Northwestern would have shut us down after they figured out what we were doing. In fact, that pretty much happened when we put Dak in. We had a couple of good runs, and then Northwestern shut it down. Win or lose, you pull Tyler, and now Dan has created yet another QB controversy in the off season. Let's not forget- a BIG reason why we lost the Egg Bowl was because Dak couldn't complete a very simple pass on fourth down which flipped momentum to Ole Miss's side big time and cost us points. I think Dak has a lot of talent and a great future for us, but it's simply not quite his time yet. Much like it wasn't Tyler's time when he was a RS freshman. But I would much rather Dak learn this year rather than take the reigns unless it is absolutely necessary.
I just hope the rumors of Dan taking over more of the play calling are true. I remember when we had to turn our head sets off against Auburn a couple of years ago which pretty much forced Dan to call plays, and all of a sudden our offense got a LOT better.Quote:
Originally Posted by tenureplan
Les just seems to get into a rut sometimes and calls the same thing over and over.
I certainly would rather him call plays than coach special teamsQuote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
Todd, we lost the Egg Bowl because our offense couldn't produce pts in the 1st half after our defense gave them 4 turnovers & a bad punt which also gave us incredible field position. We score TDs on 2 of those and we win. Football is a game of momentum. When it was close at the half, I knew we were going to lose as they had weathered the storm of turnovers. Even Dan said at halftime "we SHOULD be up by 21pts." And if that goes down we keep the energy level down, crowd out of it but most importantly it would've given our offense confidence to step on their throat.
The play calling wasn't terrible ALL year. I saw a few gafs in the Troy game, USA, aTm, and in the Bama game. But I think the best offensive playcalling we had was perhaps in the LSU hand. We just had poor execution in spots. As far as the Tyler thing. You are as wrong as you can be. Dak's ability to run overcompensates his inability to throw great passes. How on earth do you think we won with Relf? Dak at this point in his career is easily better than Relf was at passing accuracy. When you are a dual threat guy the passing windows get bigger as the defense has to honor your ability to run. Dak can make those throws better than Relf did. Plus Dak is faster. We were a finesse football team last year. You tell me how can this school, since it's inception can or has been successful by being that way and I'll blow my whistle for you. It can't the ONLY way is if we had 5* WRs to throw the ball to who can break press coverage or blow the top off of a cover 3. We don't have it and we can't win that way. Basically a spread w/ a dual threat is a manufactured running game which in turn makes us, more physical, cuts down possessions, allows the defense longer breaks as T.O.P is going to be better & is and always has been the formula for success for the Maroons. Physical running game and defense! Championship football hasn't changed guys.
I definitely agree 34 that we'll be good at DE and TE. I can see us hanging with okie state for awhile but we're gonna give up too many big plays to win. I do think we've gotta good shot of beating ark and Ole miss this year cause they'll both be down at the end of the season but I'm terrified of the Auburn game. Still scarred from 2011.
If we employ much more under center/2 TE sets this season and give Russell a chance to throw more rhythmic passes off of play action then I think we can be a much improved team. If the offense is the same as last year then we're not gonna do anything.
If this is another year of "PERKINS UP THE MIDDLE" I'm going to drown myself in the bathtub.
Osu has 4 new ol. We're gonna create havoc. I think we're gonna cancel out the big plays we give up on defense with the ones we create. Preston smith and Autry are going to have big days. I also look for us to score and score big against them. I'm fairly sure we're gonna win, but I fairly often wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver
How did we win with Relf? Relf was a good college QB. But he only went 7-6 as a senior so it's not like he was Colin Kaepernick out there. Relf as a junior and a senior- and let's not forget that Relf was actually benched in favor of Tyler his senior year- had mastered the offense more than Dak had as a true freshman. You can't compare a guy that was a senior and a guy in his RS freshman year. Of course Dak is ahead of where Relf was- Relf lost two years due to being coached by Croom and playing high school in a wishbone offense for most of his life. And Dak will be better than Relf was when he is a junior and a senior, and probably as a sophomore as well for that matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach 57
We don't need 5* WR's to break press coverage- we need taller WR's that can catch. And that was something that Dan neglected in recruiting.
I think this is where people are overlooking our advantage. I look for us to be able to get pressure on these guysQuote:
Originally Posted by Msstate7
Our Defense is going to be TOTALLY different than last year. We saw a glimpse of it at the Gator Bowl with Collins calling the shots and that was with less than a month of his schemes ..Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Our front 4 will the best depth wise since CDM has been here. 2 deep.. and all talented.
LB's are going to be legit. From what I saw this spring. When BB and RB are fighting just for playing time that's all you need to know there..
Cb's will be better coached with DT and will still be good. and the S play will be much better . You saw how good Nickoe looked at the Bowl Game.
Todd, so you say we need "taller WRs" to break press coverage. Dude, just hush! Memphis had a WR who was 6'7 or 6'8 how much taller do you want them to be? And the kid couldn't beat press from ANYBODY! There's actual skill involved with hand technique in WRs almost as much as at DL. It takes more than height to break even an average press DB much less an SEC press. You are aware Relf had fractured ribs after the Auburn game his Sr. year right? Are you aware the ribs being injured affects the throwing motion?
Relf also had a broken thumb after the LSU game that year from what I understand. I know someone one that used to work in an ER in Starkville. They were there when he was brought in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach 57
That's why I said taller AND can catch. Regardless, we don't need 5* guys that can do that. Our only red zone weapon last year was Malcolm Johnson. We need someone that can run a fade in the red zone and go up and get the ball and come down with it. That wasn't Bumphis, Jameon, Morrow- because he couldn't catch, or anyone else.
I was aware that Relf had broken ribs. However, aside from the last three games of his junior year, he never was all that accurate for the most part. I'm glad he beat Ole Miss three times but looking at the big picture, he was average. Ultimately, Tyler is on pace to have about as many wins as Chris did as a starting QB with a 6-6 season. At any rate, Dak as a freshman is not as good as Relf was as a junior or a senior.
Todd no disrespect as I appreciate your baseball prowess & knowledge. But you just proved to me you don't know a whole lot about football with that statement about Dak & Relf.
Coach57.......In my nicest internet voice, "Geez, not this shit again". You have your opinion, I have mine, on Tyler Russell, the offense, and the defense. No matter how much coaching background you have, I am not changing my mind. No matter how many times you try and patronize other posters nor how many times you declare something to be true, it still doesn't make a shit. The season will be played, one of us will be right, the other will be proven wrong. Or somewhere in the middle.
But just so we're clear.....CRYSTAL f*cking clear on this (in Auggie Garrido voice):
- I think your notion that Dak should start over Tyler is insane. Not getting into the reasons for it. I just want you to know.
- I think defense was the problem on the whole of last year. The WHOLE, not just two games. You talk about momentum, I think that's variable. Some steer toward it (Houston Nutt), some steer against it (Nick Saban).
- I think we win big this year (for MSU, and against this schedule, 8-9 wins is winning big). The OL and Sr. QB/RB will allow this. Defense gets better with Geoff Collins too (see Gator Bowl).
- I will be satisfied with 6-6, happy with 7-5, but I think we hit our high mark this season at 8-4. Again, let me be clear....our expectations should be 6-7 wins, but I think this is one of our 'up' years. I am NOT saying we should EXPECT to win 8 or 9 games. It's just my prediction when considering all the factors.
I know you disagree. That's fine. But no sense in having this discussion 48 times between now and September. Bottom line, I think the offense and Tyler Russell have an outstanding year. I hope Dak Prescott gets in on the action (not starting, but just playing).
That's fine, but it seems like our coaches are agreeing with me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach 57
OK State sets the tone this year obviously, if we lose that one I dont think there is any way we can get more then 6 W's. When I look at the schedule I only see 4 sure wins (Alcorn St, Troy, Bowling Green, UK). ARK may be down but to expect us to win that game is expecting us to do something we never have. Hopefully Coach34 is right here, but I am not as optimistic. Realistically I think we go 6-6 wins vs (Alcorn State, Auburn, Troy, Bowling Green, UK, Ole Miss) and spending New Years in Memphis for the Liberty Bowl
Coaches agree with WHAT? You said that Relf in his Jr & Sr year was better than Dak is now? How are the coaches agreeing with you? Is Relf still on the team? The fact is that Tyler IS a good QB. No doubt about that. IF (big IF) he's used correctly. Let me clarify before I become the villan here (might very too late Lol). If Dan keeps using Tyler as he was used in Meridian or in the spread option game, Dak is the better option. Period! But if Dan utilizes him properly there is NO DOUBT Tyler is the better option to win games. I don't want you guys thinking I think Tyler is a bad QB. Actually I think Tyler can be our first legit pro prospect QB. But we (our coaching staff) aren't doing him any favors by the way we used him last year. He is too good for no better than the way we used him.
I've always thought that Tyler would succeed in a Mike Leach "air raid" type of system. Would like to get your thoughts on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach 57
They agree with me by starting Tyler over Dak. I said (meant) that Relf as a junior/senior was further along than Dak was as a freshman. He may still be since Dak has been out all spring- we'll see in the fall. I think Dak will catch up to Relf the junior/senior version by the end of the year at worst though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach 57
But let's not forget- the play calling Relf's senior year wasn't exactly stellar either. Which is why I am not happy that Les is still around. Yes, our o-line sucked that year, but the play calling was very bland and predictable.