Season predictions?
I say we win east and win it all. Why not?
While I'm making bold predictions, uggla and bj both hit .220 with 20 hr's.
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Season predictions?
I say we win east and win it all. Why not?
While I'm making bold predictions, uggla and bj both hit .220 with 20 hr's.
Hope they have a good year, and I look forward to seeing them play when they come to play the rangers this fall.. Got awesome tickets from Gf's work.
Furthermore, with that out of the way.
LETS GO RED SOX...LETS GO RED SOX
I predict we're in the WC play-in game and lose it. Uggla hits sub-Mendoza aGAIN. BJ "rebounds" to hit .225. We lose at least 1 more pitcher to a mid-season TJ. Yes, I'm a pessimistic asshole at this point. Losing Beachy & Medlen before the season even started has my expectations at zero.
High hopes for this yr until medlen and beachy went down. At some point a trade will prolly have to be made for a veteran starter if October is going to be realistic. That being said, if BJ an uggla can produce and heyward stays healthy it could make up for what the pitching lacks.
Edit to add: not to change topics but who was the last "high profile" free agent or trade that came to the braves and produced? Justin upton did early but didn't maintain thru the season. Would Fred mcgriff be the last good example? Or gallarraga..although his time was split???
Can't remember if Hudson was FA or trade. Wish we still had emQuote:
Originally Posted by shoeless joe
Fairly sure Huddy was FA. He wanted to get back close to home.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
The reason is we won't part with top prospects for top players. And we also don't have the budget to pay for some of the more elite FA types that were available. I'd say Sheffield was the last big trade we made who panned out.Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless joe
JD Drew was a lot better in his one year here than most remember. Renteria was really, really good for a while. I would still say Justin Upton produced last year. It fell short of expectations ultimately, but it was still a good year.
the braves minor league is pretty tapped out at this point though with guys like heyward, freeman, kimbrel, teheran, minor, simmons, etc. all making it to the bigs in the last few years.
also, the brave have the $$ to spend, they just choose not too, and spending on big FAs is really a foolish way to try to build a winner these days. you wanna look for value (like that santana 1 year deal was a GREAT move), but you don't wanna be investing 8-10 years in guys already around 30 because they are going to be burdens on your roster for at least half that deal, if not longer. and 4-5 years of wasted $20M/year salary can really hold you back.
i think the biggest issue is the braves offense on paper could seem to be better this year, but in reality won't score more runs. they got pretty lucky last year being as solid offensively as they were with 2 of the worst regular hitters in MLB and j-upton being a mess for the final 4 months of the season. even if those guys rebound, you figure there's a solid to very good chance that freeman's ridiculous BABIP with RISP will regress, chris johnson will go back to being chris johnson, and gattis will be exploited and turn into a jp arrencibia type.
Hudson was a trade. Got him for Charles Thomas and prospects. Did sign a big deal shortly thereafter.
Sheffield definitely panned out. Drew was good but a 1 yr guy. Brett Boone helped us to the series in 99 but was only 1 yr guy.
Renteria was awesome offensively but his calling card was his D and I believe he never was stellar while with braves...tho I could be wrong.
But those things should mostly level out (and I definitely disagree on Gattis, he'll be better than that). And keep in mind, Heyward and Justin Upton have plenty more they can give than they did last year. If BJ Upton can just be mostly BJ Upton instead of what he was last year and Heyward/Justin produce more than they did last year, we'll be fine even if Freeman's production comes down some and Chris Johnson regresses.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
I think Simmons will hit better than he did last year as well.
The one concern I have is the health of our SP. We absolutely have to have Teheran/Minor/Santana/Wood stay almost completely healthy. If any of them goes down for an extended period, we'll have to rely on multiple guys like Harang/Hale/Schlosser/Floyd. Ugh.
Like you said, it'll even out, bj upton and ugly can't be worse, but freeman and Chris Johnson, and maybe gattis, really couldn't be much better IMO. Unless gattis significantly improved him contact rates. And j-upton has kinda been an enigma his whole career, he could hit .260-20-70 or .300-40-120 and neither would shock me. I'll believe in heyward when he stays healthy and does it. On the surface you'd think Simmons has a good chance to improve, but his infield flyball rate is awful, unless he improves that, it's going to hold back his production.
Heyward
Bj
FF
Johnson
Justin
Uggla
Gattis
Simmons
Opening day lineup. Hopefully bj 2nd is a sign we've gained confidence back in him. If gattis hits 7th all year, this offense could be lethal
We could talk about reasons everyone will not hit well or why everyone will. All I'm saying is that Freeman and Chris Johnson may have done better than expected and could come back down some (Johnson almost certainly will), but we have several other guys who did not in any way max out what they can do.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
Our lineup as a whole did not overachieve, that's my point. I don't expect our offensive production to go down at all.
If you add up both of their BA's it may total .220. Now, Uggla may strike out 220 times all by himself.
I've really gotten burned out on the Braves. Worst thing that happened to them was Ted Turner selling them. The new owners are the biggest tight wads I have ever seen.
I say they hover around .500 and either come within a couple games of being a wildcard team. If they make the first round of the playoffs they go no further. They'll lose their three games 1-0, 3-2, and 4-1. The two run offensive explosion in game 2 will be because of an error on the 2nd baseman that allows a run to score.
Really love this day. It needs to be a National Holiday imo. I plan on watching 13 straight hours of baseball :) I think the Braves battle the Phillies for the East and Uggla hits 30 HRs this year but BJ is just terrible until he learns to cut his swing way way down. He needs two years in Japan or something. He just does not get it. Thanks for Hudson btw. Go Giants!!
You think a 96-win team becomes a .500 team basically just by losing McCann and O'Flaherty, and replacing Medlen with Santana?
Meh, the Braves are dead to me. They could all get scurvy and I wouldn't care. Not rooting for some Cobb County ball club.
wut?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
i think the braves scored more runs than they should have last year given the individual performances and complete inconsistencies scattered throughout the lineup. somehow the sum was better than the parts. i think it's not unreasonable to expect the opposite this year, where the parts are better, but the sum takes a step back.Quote:
Originally Posted by smootness
I think the Nats are overrated and a surprise team will battle the Braves so I'll go with the Phillies.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
3 "aces", one of the best SP4s in baseball, and a deep lineup doesn't do it for you?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
Nope. Nats are overrated till they prove they aren't.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
They aren't moving until 2017... And this whole post is just ridiculous anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by EAVdog
in 2013 when all the luck went against them, they still finished 86-76. the previous season they won 98 games and played the eventual world series champs in an epic 5 game playoff series. only werth and laroche are on the wrong side of 30 out of the everyday lineup, and only fister and soriano are over 30 on the staff. and their best player is 21 years old. this is a young team with years of competing ahead of them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
it just seems awfully biased to write off a whole franchise as "overrated" because in the 1st 2 years they were reasonably expected to be good because they haven't won or made a world series yet. i mean, by that standard, how are you expecting the braves to do anything?
Oh don't worry I think the Braves are overrated as well but the Braves almost always at least make the playoffs. The Nats have made it once in their franchise's history. Again till they actually do something they will stay under my overrated category.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
the nats have had basically have a 2 year window they were expected to be good. in the modern era of baseball you rebuild by bottoming out, stocking up draft picks, and then being patient while they progress and make smart trades. the nats homegrown core just really started to come together in 2012, the made some great moves (trading for gio gonzalez and ramos), only 1 questionable big free agent signing (werth), so as of right now you are looking at a 2 year window or realistically expecting anything worth a damn out of the nats. i don't care what they did 8 years ago before the current regime was running things and making smart moves.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
if you look around baseball, the cubs, the twins, and the astros are all doing the same thing the nats did. the pirates are basically at a similar point the nats were at in 2012, though they don't have the offense the nats have. imo you are a fool if you call a team overrated because they sucked for years while they were purposefully trying to suck while rebuilding. and holding a team to a standard of making a world series within 2 years of having any expectations of success or calling them an overrated bust is a hell of a high standard.
you picked the braves to at least compete with the phillies (again, how do you peg them to compete for anything?) for the east, so you apparently don't think they are too overrated.
Text from a buddy: "BJ Upton's ABs should be shown on a loop as capital punishment."
You must be a Nats fan. We can look back at our East predictions later. Mine are Braves, Phillies, Nats, Mets, Marlins. Yours are Nats, Nats, Nats, Nats, Braves. Good luck.
I can walk to the Ted from my house in East Atlanta. I will never fight traffic to go to the armpit of interstate hell that is 285/75. At least this way I don't have to care about MLB anymore.
I just want to hear a well thought out reasoning. You haven't given one. If you are purely going on gut, then fine, just admit it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
Ok. You won't like it but ok. In my opinion Desmond, Ramos, Harper, Zimmerman, Worth, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Span, LaRoche are all good players but I wouldn't classify a single one of them as ELITE players except maybe Harper. The Nats to me are hyped greater than they actually are. Maybe it's the Strasburg, Harper, Desmond effect. Something happened with the Nats once they called up Strasburg and then Harper. They suddenly became this team getting lots of attention and exposure and they didn't get it because they were kicking everyone's ass. The Nats fans got it confused and thought they were the new Yankees all of a sudden. One great regular season don't mean jack shit. They are mostly young players with exceptional talent that just haven't quite put it all together yet. That to me is the Nats. They look great on paper but fall short at the end.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
Freeman actually has always had a high line drive rate, so his high BABIP is supportable. some regression probably, but not much. ditto Chris Johnson, though not if he tries to hit more dingers to up his value.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
Gattis has a lot of room for improvement. he could certainly turn into a bust, it all depends on if he can make adjustments.
Simmons has overachieved at the plate relative to his history.
agree about J-Up. he could go either way.
2 year window without making a World Series yet = complete bust. Ok got it.
And I think you are projecting this "think they are the Yankees" shit.
As for "elite" players, who are the braves and the phillies elite players?
Freeman hits a lot of LDs, which is why his batted balls project a .340ish BABIP. And he doesn't have much speed, which makes his .371 BABIP and .443 BABIP w/ RISP last year even a bigger outlier. Bring that back to earth, like a still very good .340, and suddenly his counting stats are going to drop too. No one is suggesting he's a complete fluke and a poor hitter, just that those numbers are unsustainable.Quote:
Originally Posted by BoomBoom
yeah, but at his age you also have to factor in generally increased production and power. mostly a wash, especially if he gets more people on base in front of him, which is likely, unless BJ stays in the 2 hole for some reason known only to Fredi.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
Can't speak for phillies, but Simmons is best ss in game. CK is best closer in game. FF is outstanding defensively and offensively, but not quite elite (chance to be though).Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs
This is not true.Quote:
Originally Posted by BoomBoom
Andrelton Simmons is NOT an elite player. He could be if his offense is ever worth a shit, but he's not. Freeman could be, but so could harper (to use dawg61's rationale), and Harper has a higher ceiling. Closer is probably the least important spot on the team to have an elite guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Btw what SS was ahead of Simmons with the 2nd best WAR among SSs last season? Yeah just that "good" player Ian Desmond. He also finished 2nd in WAR among SSs in 2012. I think the nats will be ok with that, whether anyone wants to consider it "elite" or just "good".
The point isn't to bash the braves, the point is that none of his rationale for hating on the nats makes any sense whatsoever and could easily be applied to almost every other team out there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by smootness
You've obviously never watched the braves. Simmons is elite even if he hits .200. His defense is that good.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgs