Our path to a Regional...

...is not very likely. I'm going to be optimistic about our 7 remaining SEC series:

• South Carolina - let's say we take 2/3
• @ Alabama - maybe we get 1
• Florida - they're 1-8 just like us, so we ought to win 2/3 at home
• @ Auburn - again maybe 1
• Kentucky - they have a losing SEC record right now, but it's at home, so let's get 2/3
• Ole Miss - let's be super optimistic and say we take 2/3
• @ Missouri - they've had our number lately even when terrible, but let's say we get 2/3

If we do all of that, winning each remaining home series, winning the series at Missouri, and avoiding a sweep at Alabama and Auburn, that gets us to 13-17, which gives us a chance for a Regional. Not a lock, because I project an RPI around #50 at 13-17, but at least on the table. If we can do all of that and win another game to get to 14-16, I'd feel a lot better.

No SEC team has ever gotten in at 12-18. A few (including us) have gotten in at 12-17, but never 12-18 or worse. Could that change this year? Yes - no 6-12 team had ever made the men's basketball tournament before, and 2 teams did that this year for the first time. But their metrics were a lot better than ours.

It's a yearly tradition here for some posters to be saying we won't make a Regional and usually it's a lot of overreacting, but this year, anyone saying that is probably right. The path listed above is pretty optimistic. Nothing about this season makes me confident that we can go 12-9 in the SEC from here out, and even if we do, I'm not sure we get in.

"Our path to a regional is not very likely."

Understatedly he said.

I've got a better chance of tripping over my pecker

We win either way now... if we do somehow turn it on and make a regional after this start, then lemonis did a good job and gives us hope he's the guy. If we don't make a regional, we get a new coach.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

We win either way now... if we do somehow turn it on and make a regional after this start, then lemonis did a good job and gives us hope he's the guy. If we don't make a regional, we get a new coach.

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I wouldn't really call it a win if we barely sneak into a Regional and Selmon decides "At Mississippi State, simply making a Regional is good enough."

I said before the season that we need to have a winning conference record and be in the hosting discussion for Lemonis to keep his job, and I still say that. He would need to go about 15-6 over the last 21 for that to happen, but he dug himself into this hole.

Lemonis is a top 10 coach in salary and needs to give us top 10 results on the field. I know the nature of baseball makes it impossible to be top 10 literally every year, but he needs to do that some and still be decent in the off-years. Instead, the last 4 years of 2022-25 have been awful, awful, decent, and presumably awful.

I just looked also and see things pretty much the same way. We have almost no margin for error. The problem is as I see it we continue to beat ourselves much of the time with any opponent that is in our level. They have to win at least 11 or 12 to advance to the postseason, that’s a tall order for this team considering the way they are playing right now.

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Originally Posted by Cooterpoot

I've got a better chance of tripping over my pecker

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You win the internet today.

I like the Kohn/Stone paring. That gives us a good shot on Fridays.

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Originally Posted by Quaoarsking

I wouldn't really call it a win if we barely sneak into a Regional and Selmon decides "At Mississippi State, simply making a Regional is good enough."

I said before the season that we need to have a winning conference record and be in the hosting discussion for Lemonis to keep his job, and I still say that. He would need to go about 15-6 over the last 21 for that to happen, but he dug himself into this hole.

Lemonis is a top 10 coach in salary and needs to give us top 10 results on the field. I know the nature of baseball makes it impossible to be top 10 literally every year, but he needs to do that some and still be decent in the off-years. Instead, the last 4 years of 2022-25 have been awful, awful, decent, and presumably awful.

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We won't get in the regional without our level of play going way up. If that happens, then I'll have much more confidence in Lemonis.

Croach say we still make a regional. You didn't get the memo?

Settling bullpen roles and finding a lineup would work wonders.
Season is half way over. FIO

Making a regional means we're one of 64. That's our benchmark for this clown who's only even delivered that once since '21. And we even got bounced the year we did make it.

And this year's team. Oof.

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Originally Posted by confucius say

Settling bullpen roles and finding a lineup would work wonders.
Season is half way over. FIO

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This is why they play so tight. They know that if they 17 up in any way they are going back to the bench. This is the antithesis of leadership it’s micromanagement at its finest. The players are not stupid they can see what is going on around them.

we're gonna have to sweep someone. Time is running out

We don?t have the pitching.

We have one starter.

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Originally Posted by Cooterpoot

I've got a better chance of tripping over my pecker

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I can't tell if I am laughing because of how funny this is, or how true it is.

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Originally Posted by Coursesuper

This is why they play so tight. They know that if they 17 up in any way they are going back to the bench. This is the antithesis of leadership it’s micromanagement at its finest. The players are not stupid they can see what is going on around them.

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It doesn't help that Lemonis focuses so much on the pressure at playing at MSU. The game is hard enough without talking about playing in front 15k fans.

I think that is part of what happened with Hines the past two years. When a player has a ton of pressure on them to perform they're going to press and try to do too much and try to hit the baseball 600 feet. It hurts the pitchers and players in the field when they're pitching or playing defense. Trying to do too much also can lead to being over aggressive on the basepaths.

Guys like Cohen and Vitello focus on the moment because that's all you can control when you are a baseball player. If you are a pitcher- make the pitch and locate it and get a strike. If you are a hitter see the ball and hit the ball. If you are in the field catch the ball and make the play. Do that enough and you will win more often than not.

The game is hard enough without making it life and death. At the end of the day whether it's the 7th game of the World Series or if it's a bunch of kids in the yard it's the same game. It's just baseball.

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Originally Posted by cheewgumm

We don?t have the pitching.

We have one starter.

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But we have a good bullpen. And we can manage it better. Pico can give us 6 every weekend. Then go to Hungate. He keeps saying that Hungate can pitch twice a weekend- well then do it.

Throw Pruitt on Saturday and then bring in Stone. That's at least 6 innings there. Maybe more if Pruitt is on.

Throw Siary on Sunday and then bring in Ben Davis. Throw Hungate again after that. Siary can give us 3-4 and Davis can give us at least 2.

And to fill in the rest of the innings decide who the closer is between Dotson and Nate Williams and stick with it unless one of them falls apart consistently.

That still gives us McPherson, Mannell, and Grant that we can use. Get McPherson right and that's another multi inning arm.

Use Nolan Stevens as a closer too. He can easily give us an inning a weekend.

Stevens has thrown 4 pitches since March 12th. I dont think we are going to use him in a pitching role

maybe we are giving him a few weeks off like stone got

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Originally Posted by Coach34

Stevens has thrown 4 pitches since March 12th. I dont think we are going to use him in a pitching role

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And not doing stuff like that is why they're about to get fired.

Have they considered having Cupp lead off?

And they need to just stick with Sanders at second. Same offensive production but better defense than Reeves.

1. Cupp- highest OBP on the team. Give him a chance to lead off.
2. Noah Sullivan- best hitter and has more walks than K's
3. Reese- leads team in home runs
4. Downs- great power numbers and breaks up left hand hitters
5. Nolan Stevens - has second highest average on team
6. Chance- needs to see as many fastballs as possible
7. Hines- he can use the whole field!!!
8. Highfill- best catcher we have and is leading team in steals
9. Sanders- hitting almost .400

This is what our lineup should be.

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Originally Posted by msstate7

We win either way now... if we do somehow turn it on and make a regional after this start, then lemonis did a good job and gives us hope he's the guy. If we don't make a regional, we get a new coach.

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We would have to win a regional pm the road for me to have hope in our staff

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Originally Posted by HoopsDawg

I like the Kohn/Stone paring. That gives us a good shot on Fridays.

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Preferably paired with an offense that can mash

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Originally Posted by Cowbell

Preferably paired with an offense that can mash

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We should be 3-0 on Friday's/game 1's. We're 1-2.

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Originally Posted by cheewgumm

We don?t have the pitching.

We have one starter.

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Yep - we are pitching middle relievers in starting roles. We should set aside $1M for two starting pitchers. It would be the difference to make up for below average coaching

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

We should be 3-0 on Friday's/game 1's. We're 1-2.

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The problem with this team is they always lose games they should win but never win games they should have lost. There has to be balance in that to even be average.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

Have they considered having Cupp lead off?

And they need to just stick with Sanders at second. Same offensive production but better defense than Reeves.

1. Cupp- highest OBP on the team. Give him a chance to lead off.
2. Noah Sullivan- best hitter and has more walks than K's
3. Reese- leads team in home runs
4. Downs- great power numbers and breaks up left hand hitters
5. Nolan Stevens - has second highest average on team
6. Chance- needs to see as many fastballs as possible
7. Hines- he can use the whole field!!!
8. Highfill- best catcher we have and is leading team in steals
9. Sanders- hitting almost .400

This is what our lineup should be.

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Like Cupp at lead off. At least give him a shot like you say.

Hate where Downs and Hines are. However appreciate the out of the box thinking.

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Originally Posted by Cowbell

The problem with this team is they always lose games they should win but never win games they should have lost. There has to be balance in that to even be average.

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Both games we lost and had the lead and couldn't figure out that Hungate and McPherson didn't have it.

It's a management issue.

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Originally Posted by cheewgumm

Like Cupp at lead off. At least give him a shot like you say.

Hate where Downs and Hines are. However appreciate the out of the box thinking.

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I don't like him hitting there either to b me honest. I'm just working with what we have. I don't know if Hines can handle the pressure.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

I don't like him hitting there either to b me honest. I'm just working with what we have. I don't know if Hines can handle the pressure.

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Hines has been the best hitter on the team the last 8 games

You lost me at regional

What about a path to the mythical regional final?? Its about as legendary as Loch Ness or BigFoot

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Originally Posted by Coach34

Hines has been the best hitter on the team the last 8 games

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Yes but can not handle pressure. I want to keep him where he is so he can continue to rake.

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

Yes but can not handle pressure. I want to keep him where he is so he can continue to rake.

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Hunter needs to stay where he is. I'm still perplexed why Freis hasn't seen more PT. Heck he was pretty dam good at leadoff then Lemon just took him out of the lineup,.

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Originally Posted by confucius say

Settling bullpen roles and finding a lineup would work wonders.
Season is half way over. FIO

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This is the truth. Lemonis refuses to define roles until April every year. I understand not giving up on a kid after the first weekend, but these roles should've been defined and a lineup settled on in March.

Guys, Lem is just experimenting this year to build his championship run next season*

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Originally Posted by Cooterpoot

Guys, Lem is just experimenting this year to build his championship run next season*

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The sad thing is, the Lemonis apologists(and there's still a couple out there), will tell you this. They'll say we are young and next year is our year.

18-12, This was my super-fan maroon prediction when I thought we had something more than just Pico ready to compete. So 14-16 is about where MSU ends up, with original assumptions. That's with winning 6 of the last 7 series. Key is Evan Siary being #2 and winning. Ligon has to be replaced as #3. But Pruitt and Davis are not the answer. In 2024, MSU needed a good transfer Starter rather badly last summer. Arkansas got Zack Root and the Bettlejuice kid. Completely whiffed on transfer Starter.

Pitching is the biggest factor to reach 14 SEC wins.

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Originally Posted by Cooterpoot

Guys, Lem is just experimenting this year to build his championship run next season*

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Nailed it!