Keep an eye on next Tuesday

Especially if you live in the western half of MS and south of 82. Models are starting to gain some consistency on a potential severe threat in about 8 days. Not ready to say it's going to happen, but it certainly appears to be something worth watching as the models are starting to kick back some interesting parameters.

And shameless plug, if you're curious as to what I look at, parameter wise, for severe weather then you might find the video below of interest. It's one video of a five part video series I made for my chase team on severe weather topics. Give it a listen if you're having trouble sleeping. You'll either learn a couple things or have you're insomnia cured so win/win.


https://youtu.be/LeWR9JAXu4E

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Especially if you live in the western half of MS and south of 82. Models are starting to gain some consistency on a potential severe threat in about 8 days. Not ready to say it's going to happen, but it certainly appears to be something worth watching as the models are starting to kick back some interesting parameters.

And shameless plug, if you're curious as to what I look at, parameter wise, for severe weather then you might find the video below of interest. It's one video of a five part video series I made for my chase team on severe weather topics. Give it a listen if you're having trouble sleeping. You'll either learn a couple things or have you're insomnia cured so win/win.


https://youtu.be/LeWR9JAXu4E

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I was just looking at the hodographs for that day. All I can say is DAMN. I hope things change.

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Originally Posted by ArrowDawg

I was just looking at the hodographs for that day. All I can say is DAMN. I hope things change.

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The hodos, EHI, and SRH all got my attention.

They better be watching the next 6-12 hours. Storms heading down 20 towards the border and for us Coasties heavy storms heading into SW LA now.

Rained like hell in Natchez most of the night. A little over 2 inches

SPC has now issued a day 8 severe threat outlook. Those are exceedingly rare. Now, that doesn't mean it's going to be a massive high risk outbreak, but it does mean several of the models are in good enough agreement this far out that something is going to happen.

Watching this thread. I'll be headed to my place in Covington county from Nashville this weekend. Was gonna drive back to Nashville on Tuesday but probably Monday now.

Friday gonna be real rough for the Coastal area.

Although the SPC has most of the state under the slight risk, I'm still thinking the bullseye will be 100 miles each side of the river south of 82. Yazoo City, Vicksburg, Tallulah area.

Looking at the 00z run of the GFS and I'm really not seeing anything to change my mind on Tuesday being a significant severe weather event. I'm also still holding onto my thoughts that south of 82 and west of 55 is still the prime area. With this still 6 days out a lot can change, but the gfs and euro have both been consistent with this. By this weekend we'll be close enough for the NAM suite of models to start giving their opinions.

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Originally Posted by parabrave

Friday gonna be real rough for the Coastal area.

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I?m LA tonight and headed back north in the morning.

What?s the timing of this event.

They are closing schools down here left and right.

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Originally Posted by Noxdog

I?m LA tonight and headed back north in the morning.

What?s the timing of this event.

They are closing schools down here left and right.

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For the NOLA Coast area from around 3 am to noon on the coast/ For the GPT/BIX area they hve been downgrading the Percp total from 2" to now about .75". But the severe winds, Hail and tornadic activity is elevated.

https://www.weather.gov/images/lix/g...cb44b4c006418e

Quote:

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Originally Posted by parabrave

For the NOLA Coast area from around 3 am to noon on the coast/ For the GPT/BIX area they hve been downgrading the Percp total from 2" to now about .75". But the severe winds, Hail and tornadic activity is elevated.

https://www.weather.gov/images/lix/g...cb44b4c006418e

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So if I?m leaving Mobile area, say around 10 am, how bad will 45 be north?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Noxdog

So if I?m leaving Mobile area, say around 10 am, how bad will 45 be north?

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By 10:00 the mobile area will still be in it but should start clearing out about an hour north of there per the HRRR. This is primarily an overnight an early morning event.

That said, I'm seeing some chatter about an afternoon round in north AL. MS should be in the clear for the most part.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Noxdog

So if I?m leaving Mobile area, say around 10 am, how bad will 45 be north?

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Probably gonna be when that area will be getting slammed. Leave after 1400 or before 0700.


This is the timing for the Mobile Area.

http://www.weather.gov/images//mob/g...3039046c5e1ff8

Quote:

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

By 10:00 the mobile area will still be in it but should start clearing out about an hour north of there per the HRRR. This is primarily an overnight an early morning event.

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Thanks brother.

Upgrade to enhanced risk for Tuesday now.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOHvdueX0B8rhfI.jpg

Quote:

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Upgrade to enhanced risk for Tuesday now.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOHvdueX0B8rhfI.jpg

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Enhanced risk forecast 5 days out? Ouch.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DownwardDawg

Watching this thread. I'll be headed to my place in Covington county from Nashville this weekend. Was gonna drive back to Nashville on Tuesday but probably Monday now.

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If you’re a turkey hunter your gonna have a good time down here this weekend. Been around Taylorsville all week and they’re on fire!