Turning It Around After Missing a Bowl?

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10-25-2013, 11:47 PM
engie

Turning It Around After Missing a Bowl?

I know what you are saying. "Jackie turned it around a few times". And that's true. It was also a different era lacking the cut-throat nature and mega-money contracts of today's SEC. The question appears to be "how much revenue can teams afford to lose in giving coaches multiple chances to turn it around?" Simply put, there is always excitement with a new coach selling fresh hope -- and excitement sells tickets. Once interest is lost, it is a much more difficult and lengthy process to regain that interest by winning at a higher level than it is by simply blowing it up and starting over. One is a virtual guarantee(new coach), while the other is still a big risk that hasn't panned out recently, outside of extenuating circumstances. Patience does not $ell in today's environment. Buyouts get really cheap compared to not selling tickets and getting donations.

In the last 5 years, there have been 16 total SEC bowl "misses". In those 16 total cases, 10 coaches were fired that very year for it. 2 were first year coaches showing promise(Mullen and Petrino) that were retained. In the remaining 4 cases, Nutt, Joker, and Dooley all got even worse the next year and were fired then.

In the last 5 years, Gary Pinkel is the only coach that kept his job and actually returned to bowl eligibility the next year. 1 of 16 individual situations made it "back" after a single missed bowl. I consider him a special situation due to an inordinate amount of injuries to key personnel. It was obvious last year what was happening with them and how badly they missed a few pieces. I mentioned this alot in the preseason when everyone was overlooking them as a Kentucky-level doormat. He lost something like 6 starters in the preseason -- mostly in the trenches, where they already knew they had no depth, lost his Heisman-candidate(at the time) QB early, his elite national RB medically redshirted, and they limped through the #2 SOS in the country, finishing at 5-7. He drew Bama and aTm in the cross-division and played 2 8-win BCS teams in the nonconference. He still underwent a major staff overhaul with the firing of a longterm OC and several others in the off-season.

2012:
Pinkel? Successful as noted above
Dooley? Fired
Joker? Fired
John L? Fired
Chizik? Fired

2011:
Nutt? Fired
Dooley? Retained but got far worse
Joker? Retained but got far worse

2010:
Nutt? Retained but got far worse
Caldwell? Fired

2009:
Johnson? Fired
Mullen? Promise shown in year 1

2008:
Croom? Fired
Tuberville? Fired
Petrino? Promise shown in year 1
Fulmer? Fired

This isn't necessarily to draw a conclusion about Mullen -- because I believe with the 2014 schedule, it would be well above a 50% chance that he would take us bowling the next year. Then again, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Tennessee also trusted this would be true -- and all 3 then fell apart in spectacular fashion.
10-26-2013, 12:17 AM
Dannyripms

Spot on engie
10-26-2013, 06:38 AM
Tbonewannabe

Croom was fired the year after he won coach of the year. It was obvious he should go but MSU got shit for firing him at the time.
10-26-2013, 07:47 AM
Political Hack

that new stadium can't be empty, and USM isn't going to fill it.
10-26-2013, 07:51 AM
Dawgfan77

Engie, I agree 100% with you on all your post. I have posted this several times but I think its getting over looked. In year 5 to me we are not better as a program than we were in year two. Fair or not fair I also think with success Hud is having along with OM playing teams to the wire and the upset over LSU puts a dark cloud over Mullen. Those two teams seem to playing at a much higher level than we seem to be and each inherited a worse program than Mullen did (Croom 4-8, La Laff 2-10, OM 2-10)
After the way we finished 2012 and the lackadaisical way we are playing this year, I just dont see the program moving in the right direction. Yes we have been to 3 bowls and that is outstanding, but if we dont make it this year why are some poster just hell bent on keeping Mullen for one more year. Why settle for mediocrity? In stead of staying with the trend of the past why not say SCREW it Dan you had 5 years but we need to move in another direction.
10-26-2013, 08:58 AM
Tbonewannabe

I think most people see next year as setting up great for the schedule and we can be in gator bowl level bowl. My question is do you think Hud could get to that level next year? If the answer is yes what do we gain keeping Mullen? Are we going to quit collapsing in the 2nd half?

Hud did something against Petrino I haven't seen Mullen do in years.
10-26-2013, 09:02 AM
cheewgumm

Who cares if we get shit?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

Croom was fired the year after he won coach of the year. It was obvious he should go but MSU got shit for firing him at the time.
10-26-2013, 09:07 AM
Tbonewannabe

That is most people's thinking that firing Mullen this year that we will catch hell for firing him and not giving him at least one more year. I am concerned with not being competitive in 2nd halves when games are won.
10-26-2013, 09:12 AM
Dawgface

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

Croom was fired the year after he won coach of the year. It was obvious he should go but MSU got shit for firing him at the time.

Not entirely. I remember very well Mark May supporting the decision. He stated that you can't lose to your rival 45-0 and expect to hold onto your job. Of course his mush mouth companion said it was a sad day.
10-26-2013, 09:16 AM
BHildreth3

Quote:

Originally Posted by Political Hack

that new stadium can't be empty, and USM isn't going to fill it.

This is scary as hell...and it's why I believe this Egg Bowl is the most important game in our history. If we lose after several losses, Dan is fired. The administration cannot have empty seats, and they will without something to be excited about.
10-26-2013, 09:38 AM
engie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

Croom was fired the year after he won coach of the year. It was obvious he should go but MSU got shit for firing him at the time.

We are not the same school that we were when Croom was fired. Yes, that's largely thanks to Mullen -- and being in the continued monetary monolith that is the SEC, which hadn't got the first big TV contract yet in 2008 -- much less the second big one coming in 2014.

My question is -- does he have the "right" to tear it down because he built it? This is the biggest problem with MSU's approach to athletics in my opinion. Coaches become bigger than their teams -- and they are allowed to totally destroy programs before we let them go, despite multiple years of having "the writing on the wall." Then, we have a difficult time finding coaches willing to mess with a multi-year rebuild -- and when it's destroyed to that level, it still takes time to get the fans back.

We fired Croom at the perfect time -- and Mullen's initial support was largely the result of that. Let's face it -- we didn't realize it at the time, but hindsight shows us that Croom had set the table for Mullen to have immediate success with the talent that had been accumulated. Even so, it took Mullen the better part of a season showing "relentless effort" and having good performances before he first sold it out for the first time. How many years did it take Cohen and will it take Ray to get our fans back?

If we go 5-7 this year and keep him, he is bowling again next year at 6-6/7-5(yes, it's a 9 win schedule -- but this was a 7 win schedule IMO -- particularly with SC and aTm having their issues), then he's untouchable after making a bowl -- and despite 2.5 underperforming years -- you've got to keep him for at least another one. The earliest time of reckoning past this year is 2015. At which point, we've 100% missed on Hudspeth.

If he goes 6-6 this year, we've got to keep him. I'm agreeing with that much. But I don't see any reason to believe it's going to happen.
10-26-2013, 10:06 AM
bluelightstar

If we're lucky, he'll just go to UCONN and spare us having to fire him.
10-26-2013, 10:21 AM
Tbonewannabe

I think how we get to 6 wins is more important than a bowl game. What if the rest of our games look like LSU game. We beat an Ark team that is mailing it in and then have a UK/BG game to beat UM. The home team almost always wins in the Egg Bowl.

Where are these 9 wins coming from next year? We have already said UM is a L. Aub at home? They just beat A&M at a&m. They will be better next year. Bama & LSU seem to always be L. A&m probably an L. So we Have to win every other game which includes UK (who has almost everyone back from this team, they win if Nickoe is in the game instead of market), vandy, and Arkansas.
10-26-2013, 10:31 AM
Op4isabitch

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

I think most people see next year as setting up great for the schedule and we can be in gator bowl level bowl. My question is do you think Hud could get to that level next year? If the answer is yes what do we gain keeping Mullen? Are we going to quit collapsing in the 2nd half?

Hud did something against Petrino I haven't seen Mullen do in years.

Spot on post! If we were to go with Hud, I don't see anyway that he doesn't do at least as well as what Mullen could next year, After watching Huds players it seems as though they love playing for him and will play with 110% energy. The plus side is that our recruiting will be a year ahead if we cut bait now and move in the right direction with Hudspeth.
10-26-2013, 10:36 AM
Percho

Quote:

Originally Posted by engie

We are not the same school that we were when Croom was fired. Yes, that's largely thanks to Mullen -- and being in the continued monetary monolith that is the SEC, which hadn't got the first big TV contract yet in 2008 -- much less the second big one coming in 2014.

My question is -- does he have the "right" to tear it down because he built it? This is the biggest problem with MSU's approach to athletics in my opinion. Coaches become bigger than their teams -- and they are allowed to totally destroy programs before we let them go, despite multiple years of having "the writing on the wall." Then, we have a difficult time finding coaches willing to mess with a multi-year rebuild -- and when it's destroyed to that level, it still takes time to get the fans back.

We fired Croom at the perfect time -- and Mullen's initial support was largely the result of that. Let's face it -- we didn't realize it at the time, but hindsight shows us that Croom had set the table for Mullen to have immediate success with the talent that had been accumulated. Even so, it took Mullen the better part of a season showing "relentless effort" and having good performances before he first sold it out for the first time. How many years did it take Cohen and will it take Ray to get our fans back?

If we go 5-7 this year and keep him, he is bowling again next year at 6-6/7-5(yes, it's a 9 win schedule -- but this was a 7 win schedule IMO -- particularly with SC and aTm having their issues), then he's untouchable after making a bowl -- and despite 2.5 underperforming years -- you've got to keep him for at least another one. The earliest time of reckoning past this year is 2015. At which point, we've 100% missed on Hudspeth.

If he goes 6-6 this year, we've got to keep him. I'm agreeing with that much. But I don't see any reason to believe it's going to happen.

Let me ask you this.

With the new north end of DWS coming next year; What effect would you say hiring say, Hud (as fresh hope) have on sales over retaining CDM if say CDM wins 4/5, 3/5 or just wins the egg bowl?
10-26-2013, 10:43 AM
Op4isabitch

Thursday nights crowd was indicative of what to expect if we retain Mullen and the team continues to perform like they have this season. Nothing will force Stricklin's hand quicker than a lack of butts in the stands. If we were performing well and had beaten Auburn and OK St do you think the stands would have been so empty? No way! Playing poorly against inferior teams and getting blown out by the good teams isn't a recipe for getting great fan support!
10-26-2013, 11:06 AM
engie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Percho

Let me ask you this.

With the new north end of DWS coming next year; What effect would you say hiring say, Hud (as fresh hope) have on sales over retaining CDM if say CDM wins 4/5, 3/5 or just wins the egg bowl?

If Mullen finishes on the trajectory he's on(5-7/4-8) this year and is retained for next year, the difference in total revenue produced between the two will be $5-12 million next season. That includes tickets that aren't bought or bought extremely cheap and decreased private athletics donations. It's pointless to speculate beyond one year.
10-26-2013, 11:53 AM
CadaverDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluelightstar

If we're lucky, he'll just go to UCONN and spare us having to fire him.

I disagree. All those people that say it would look bad on MSU to fire Mullen....well it would look far worse if he "left us" for ****ing UConn IMO. We just need to fire him and hire Hud immediately. That way he hangs on to recruits and we don't show a state of instability for a month or two like normal. We will immediately have a replacement, and Hud's offense is similar enough to where we will use the same skill set players, etc.

In my opinion, as long as we have Hud in place when Dan is fired, nobody will say a thing about it. Not that we should care.