OM Fans Are Setting Themselves Up for Major Disappointment

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07-19-2019, 12:27 PM
ShotgunDawg

OM Fans Are Setting Themselves Up for Major Disappointment

Hearing Bo Bounds desperately trying to get OM fans excited by feeding them BS false hope & hearing some optimism from Cole Cubelic on the radio yesterday, but I just can't figure what there is to be optimistic about.

I just don't see where the wins come from...

- Moving to 3-4 defense has never worked in year 1
- New QB
- WR unit lost most of it's production
- 2 coordinators that will be attempting to undercut the head coach in an effort to get the head job. I give them till about week 7 before the shit hits the fan.
- Offensive line lost all it's good players

Looking at OM's schedule, I only see 2 certain wins. If OM wins 5-6 games, Matt Luke should be considered in SEC coach of the year conversations.

The only thing that I think OM will be substantially better at this year is limiting the plays its' porous defense has to play because Rich Rod will run the ball more. Also, they are a little lucky in that most of their tossups are at the beginning of the year when they won't be decimated yet & still have hope. I think they would lose more of the tossups if they were on the back-end of the schedule.

I don't see them having much of a chance in the losses.

As unbiased as you can be, tell me where I'm missing the mark

https://i.imgur.com/1j2fKn0.jpg
07-19-2019, 12:31 PM
timotheus

I think u have it about right. A few injuries and they will do much worse.
07-19-2019, 12:55 PM
Political Hack

4 likely losses IMO. 2 likely wins.

The rest are toss ups, with Mizzou and A&M being likely losses as well. You could say State is a toss up too just because it's a rivalry game, but I can't see us losing that one this year.
07-19-2019, 12:58 PM
Johnson85

Don't disagree with any of it. I think they've got a good situation against Arkansas. Their offense goes against UM's defensive strength (such as it is) and I assume Arkansas still doesn't have the personnel for their offense. And it's at home.

Don't know enough about Memphis or Vanderbilt or California to weigh in on. Also not sure what to think about Mizzou; is that a possible upset game?

Definitely going to be hard to them to get to 6 though.
07-19-2019, 12:59 PM
msstate7

There's no way I'd put money on it, but I wouldn't be shocked if they were 4-0 headed in to Tuscaloosa
07-19-2019, 01:08 PM
Maroonthirteen

Offensively, they will have some good freshmen players contribute immediately.
07-19-2019, 01:12 PM
StarkVegasSteve

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

There's no way I'd put money on it, but I wouldn't be shocked if they were 4-0 headed in to Tuscaloosa

They're better than people think if they roll into T-Town 4-0. I'm not saying it's not possible. The Memphis game could decide their fate for the season. If they win that one then I see a way for them to get to 6 wins. They lose that one and their season could go downhill FAST. I just don't see them being able to piece together enough stops to beat Memphis. That game will be Memphis' super bowl. The Liberty Bowl will be rocking for that one.
07-19-2019, 01:13 PM
gravedigger

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

There's no way I'd put money on it, but I wouldn't be shocked if they were 4-0 headed in to Tuscaloosa

They could and what?s more we should expect it. They are in the same shape they ere in all those years of my childhood. Shitty, but dangerous and emotional. They can?t hang with the better teams but they could damn sure upset a midrange team if they didn?t get trounced.

We are midrange. They will play inspired. Hope we are clicking on thanksgiving
07-19-2019, 01:34 PM
Jarius

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

There's no way I'd put money on it, but I wouldn't be shocked if they were 4-0 headed in to Tuscaloosa

And I would be shocked if you did not have this opinion.
07-19-2019, 01:50 PM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jarius

And I would be shocked if you did not have this opinion.

Not even sure what this is supposed to mean. They wouldn't have to be very good at all to be 4-0. Memphis played 2 P5 teams last year, and they lost both while giving up an avg of 51 ppg. Ark game is at home. Cal isn't good.
07-19-2019, 01:51 PM
ShotgunDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maroonthirteen

Offensively, they will have some good freshmen players contribute immediately.

Freshman.
07-19-2019, 02:04 PM
HancockCountyDog

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Hearing Bo Bounds desperately trying to get OM fans excited by feeding them BS false hope & hearing some optimism from Cole Cubelic on the radio yesterday, but I just can't figure what there is to be optimistic about.

I just don't see where the wins come from...

- Moving to 3-4 defense has never worked in year 1
- New QB
- WR unit lost most of it's production
- 2 coordinators that will be attempting to undercut the head coach in an effort to get the head job. I give them till about week 7 before the shit hits the fan.
- Offensive line lost all it's good players

Looking at OM's schedule, I only see 2 certain wins. If OM wins 5-6 games, Matt Luke should be considered in SEC coach of the year conversations.

The only thing that I think OM will be substantially better at this year is limiting the plays its' porous defense has to play because Rich Rod will run the ball more. Also, they are a little lucky in that most of their tossups are at the beginning of the year when they won't be decimated yet & still have hope. I think they would lose more of the tossups if they were on the back-end of the schedule.

I don't see them having much of a chance in the losses.

As unbiased as you can be, tell me where I'm missing the mark

I haven't talked to a single confederate fan that is excited about this season. In fact, most are pretending the season isn't starting in about a month. They know that they are looking at 3-5 wins and if everything breaks their way 6 wins.
07-19-2019, 02:24 PM
Ari Gold

They haven’t won 6 games the last 2 years with better players each of those years.
Will they win 6 this year ? Maybe
Could they Only win 3 or 4 this year? Absolutely
07-19-2019, 02:25 PM
Jarius

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

Not even sure what this is supposed to mean. They wouldn't have to be very good at all to be 4-0. Memphis played 2 P5 teams last year, and they lost both while giving up an avg of 51 ppg. Ark game is at home. Cal isn't good.

It means exactly what I said.
07-19-2019, 02:45 PM
Maroonthirteen

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Freshman.

Thank you very much Miss Lippy.
07-19-2019, 02:58 PM
TrapGame

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

Not even sure what this is supposed to mean. They wouldn't have to be very good at all to be 4-0. Memphis played 2 P5 teams last year, and they lost both while giving up an avg of 51 ppg. Ark game is at home. Cal isn't good.

Didn't Cal beat them last year? I remember watching that game but I can't remember if it was last year or the year before b/c I thought Shea was starting QB. Cal's HC is a good defensive minded coach. His second half adjustments just neutered om's offense.
07-19-2019, 03:03 PM
msstate7

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrapGame

Didn't Cal beat them last year? I remember watching that game but I can't remember if it was last year or the year before b/c I thought Shea was starting QB. Cal's HC is a good defensive minded coach. His second half adjustments just neutered om's offense.

2017

OM beat Texas tech as their P5 opponent last season
07-19-2019, 03:08 PM
Johnson85

Quote:

Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve

They're better than people think if they roll into T-Town 4-0. I'm not saying it's not possible. The Memphis game could decide their fate for the season. If they win that one then I see a way for them to get to 6 wins. They lose that one and their season could go downhill FAST. I just don't see them being able to piece together enough stops to beat Memphis. That game will be Memphis' super bowl. The Liberty Bowl will be rocking for that one.

That would mean they'd be better than people think, but not necessarily by much. They have 4 very winnable games to start off with that probably any SEc team other than Arky, Ole Miss, and maybe Vandy would expect to go 4-0 through.
07-19-2019, 03:28 PM
TrapGame

Quote:

Originally Posted by msstate7

2017

OM beat Texas tech as there P5 opponent last season

Thank you. I thought I remembered Shea as the starter.
07-19-2019, 03:39 PM
drunkernhelldawg

Bad teams usually get better. We'll see what happens this time, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them win 3 of their first four. In some ways, we'll be seeing their team for the first time when they open the season. It'll be easier to judge after that. I've seen more than one bad team turn it around over the years.

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