I don't see how we don't win 6. Is everyone else hitting it hard?
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I don't see how we don't win 6. Is everyone else hitting it hard?
I'm just going to say I tried opening up a bet account to put big money on A&M last year. I know friends that lost a pretty big amount too. Turns out vegas was right
The only concern I have is an injury to the QB position. We are fairly thin at that position with 0 experience in depth.
Barring a Fitz injury or a string of important injuries, we win a minimum of 6. We will win all 4 of our non conference. And we literally had by far the worst defenses in the conference and like the worst pass defense in the country. We gave up 28 or more points in 8 straight games last year and gave up 20 or more in every game but the South Carolina game. No way in hell that happens under Grantham. This team will be so much better on defense and it will give us much better scoring opportunities on offense when we aren't starting every drive from a touchback on a kickoff.Quote:
Originally Posted by Big4Dawg
Definitely go with the over. I think we will have legit chances to beat LSU, UGA, UK, TAMU, Arkansas, and OM. Auburn and Alabama scare me. But the other 6 conference games are all winnable I think.
I think we win seven. The four non-conference, UGA, UK, and Northern Miss.Quote:
Originally Posted by Big4Dawg
We have 4 sure losses in LSU, Georgia, Auburn, and Bama. But other than that- no reason we couldn't get to 6- even with Keyteon
I think y'all will be favored in 6... If you can steal a game as a road 'dog, you're a lock, IMO.
There has been optimism around every new DC we've had except Torbush.Quote:
Originally Posted by Big4Dawg
How's that?
Favored in only half of our games with 2 of those nods coming solely from points for home field advantage.
Consider also just how bad our secondary was, and it was both our corner's and safeties being equally bad yet most of the same guys who stunk it up last year will once again be our starters again this season.
Add in that Mullen has been very vocal about how excited he is to have Tolando Cleveland returning to the starting lineup at CB and that alone should have you beyond terrified of the over 5.5
Only for sure loss on our schedule is Bama. Don't @ me Random.
Of that shitstorm defense we had last year we always play auburn close even with crappy teams. I think we win at least 1 if not 2 of those 4 sure losses. Not that we couldn't lay an egg with say Kentucky or another team we should beat.Quote:
Originally Posted by Random Poster
We also had a shitty DC last year as well that had no idea what he was doing. As long as we are average on defense, which we should be with Grantham, our floor should be six.Quote:
Originally Posted by biggun
I agree. We could lose to the Hogs or aTm. We could beat LSU, AU or UGA.Quote:
Originally Posted by 99jc
I think this year it's hard to figure the SECW and MSU. Lots of "wild cards" for us. New staff on defense. Questions about our secondary and dline depth. Does our passing game do enough to keep defense honest?
Hard for me to see us winning less than 6 or more than 8.
I'm glad you included the "even with Keyteon" because Fitz's passing prowess still has me concerned. I realize it's only a spring game, but for everyone worrying about our secondary - our own QB looked like garbage against them. Did they play up, or did he have an off day?Quote:
Originally Posted by Random Poster
As civildawg stated, Vegas doesn't miss much. Cautiously optimistic they are in this case.
I think there is a MUCH better chance we win 6+ than anything less than that. There are a few possibilities that would make me hesitate to put a potload of money on it though. One, as has been mentioned, if we lose Fitz we would have a true freshman QB learning his way in the SEC. Two, our schedule is harder this year than last year. We've traded an almost sure win in SC for a very difficult trip to GA this year. Also, any year we play Bama at home its a disadvantage because we are wasting one of our home field advantage games on a team that we have virtually no shot to beat regardless of game location. If I had my rathers, I would play Bama in Tuscaloosa every year in exchange for another home game against anyone else in the SEC. Three, our defense will definitely be improved but how much is an unknown until we actually see some games. And finally, losing Fred Ross plus watching the Spring game certainly will give you pause on how much production we can get our of our passing game plus we can't really count on making many FGs at the moment. So while we should be better in enough areas that I would say we have a pretty decent chance at a 7-8 win season I still can't say that getting to 6 is an automatic given.
Do you really though? I didn't even watch the spring game cause it means absolute ****elQuote:
Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh
Whether you watched or not doesn't change the fact he threw 4 picks in one half of football against a secondary most here are worried about. Hell, he was even picked off by a D lineman (threw it right to him).Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg61
All I'm saying is he will have some growing pains, which could cost us a game or two. If those are against teams we think are locks, then we may not get to 6 wins.
I could also see Mullen calling plays to keep him in the pocket more this year, which would do the same.
LSU isn't anywhere close to a "for sure loss," and hasn't been for 3 years.
Also, I wouldn't put too much stock into the Spring Game considering our offense, particularly under Fitz, is predicated by the QB run game, and the QBs were wearing green jerseys. It's a hell of a lot easier to play pass defense as a DB when you know the QB isn't going to run, you can give up rushing yards without repercussions, and, ultimately, you are auditioning for a starting spot by exhibiting the best coverage you can.
Look no further than the Dear TD reception against Ole Miss....
If someone gave me $100 bill and told me to bet it I would take the over. However I don't know that I would be rushing out to put a substantial sum of my own money on it. I figure Vegas has the number about right.
Barring significant injuries, over.