The way I see it, our main competition for a national seed....

Are our friendly neighborhood Black Bears.

I say that based mainly on 4 things:
1) The SEC is in position to land as many as 4 national seeds, a historic number. I don't see any way there are more than 4 selected, however.
2) There are 6 potentially elite SEC teams deserving of national seed status most years in UF, USC, Vandy, TAMU, MSU, and OM. So at least two of those teams are going to be left out.
3) Texas A&M, Florida, and South Carolina appear to be locks at this point. Vandy appears to be the odd team out right now that has the most work to do down the stretch.
4) MSU and OM have very similar resumes for the 4th spot, but RIGHT NOW the edge belongs to OM. They have better record, higher RPI, much stronger nonconference SOS, and by the end of the season should have stronger overall SOS when looking at the 6 games left that each team has. They are also tied with us in the standings. All we really have going for us is our 3 out of 4 wins head to head, which is significant. But I don't think that is going to outweigh all of the other items above.

Bottom line is that there is a very strong chance we head into the final weekend still tied with OM for either first or second in the West. We all want to finish ahead of both them and A&M for the division title, but its much more important that we finish ahead of them to position ourselves better for that national seed. So I don't know about yall, but I'm rooting like hell for UGA today, UK next weekend, and A&M the final weekend. Not like anyone here should need another reason to root against OM, but there you go.

They are a legit threat, but right now we would get it based on winning 3 against them and our elite road series wins.

After looking at our SEC road record and beating them 3/4, I can't see any way they take OM over us if it came down to us two.

We are not in competition for Ole Miss for a national seed. They are going for hosting spot no doubt but they are not close to being in contention for a national seed. They don't have nearly the impressive series wins we do such as @UF. @Vandy, and @LSU. They will drop two against A&M and that will be that. We are a lock for a national seed if we don't **** it up by losing a series these last two weeks. I think 4-2 to 5-1 will sew it up. We are a projected 5 seed atm. That isn't even in the ball park of losing it.

We're not tied with them in the SEC standings. They still have another game today and if they lose we'll stay ahead of them.

If we take care of business the last two weekends:
1. We will have won 9 of our 10 SEC series
2. Won all 5 road SEC series
3. Went 3-1 against OM
4. Series wins at Vandy, FL, & LSU

We are lock for a national seed if we go 4-2 or better the next two weeks

There is no way Ole Miss U should be ahead of us. Our wins are more impressive and we're ranked higher, and we beat them head to head.

They shouldn't be, but yeah, they are. I cannot understand why they keep winning, they aren't that great by my eye. I honestly think it's a case of easy scheduling and gaming the RPI - I don't care the stats, their SOS is NOT better than ours, OOC or SEC. Their SEC schedule is probably the easiest in the conference, and they are playing everyone seemingly at their worst. I think their luck will probably run out in the postseason.

We're a consensus Top 3 team. Assuming we take care of business the next two weekends, we're a national seed. Y'all are overthinking the hell out of this.

Agree with WMD. It's ours to lose at this point. Just win.

No way OM is in our class. You are putting too much emphasis on RPI. Yes. it is a factor, but not the only factor. If you look at last year's RPI for the NS, you'll see that.

Beyond the fact we have taken 3 of 4 from them, our record against RPI Top 50 is 15-11 vs their 10-11. Their RPI advantage over us is mostly due to the, "vs RPI 101-200, where we are 4-0-1 & they are 12-0.

The committee is not going to allow OM vs 101-200 to trump our road wins at UF, Vandy, LSU, & the aforementioned 3 for 4 vs OM, including one at a neutral site.

If we close strong I don't see anyway they could take a spot from us no matter how they close. Could they get a fifth? Possible I guess but I can't see that happening.
If we don't close I agree we could leave the door open for them a little, but that's only because you can't ever tell what metric the committee will lean on this year. They can and will move the goalposts depending on the final outcome they want.

I fully expect tsun to get a seed that is less than their record. This will be an indication shot fired from the NCAA'S light artillery as to what will eventually rain down on their out of control corrupt athletic administration. For a program so disrespectful and arrogant as to stoop to the level of cheating on women's sports, there is no reason to believe their baseball team plays by the rules.

I wouldn't worry about the cheaters up north.

We control our own destiny- win and we got it. Go 3-3 and we got problems

Ha!...Scotty bringing the heat

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Originally Posted by blacklistedbully

No way OM is in our class. You are putting too much emphasis on RPI. Yes. it is a factor, but not the only factor. If you look at last year's RPI for the NS, you'll see that.

Beyond the fact we have taken 3 of 4 from them, our record against RPI Top 50 is 15-11 vs their 10-11. Their RPI advantage over us is mostly due to the, "vs RPI 101-200, where we are 4-0-1 & they are 12-0.

The committee is not going to allow OM vs 101-200 to trump our road wins at UF, Vandy, LSU, & the aforementioned 3 for 4 vs OM, including one at a neutral site.

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You are correct that RPI is just one factor. Head to head is also just one factor. Lets just list all of them out to show the whole picture:
1) RPI - Advantage OM
2) Record - Advantage OM
3) Head to Head - Advantage MSU
4) SOS - Advantage OM
5) Nonconference SOS - Advantage OM
6) Conference standings - Either advantage MSU or a wash after today
7) Marquee series wins - Advantage MSU

See, even if OM loses today, that is still 4 of 7 key metrics CURRENTLY in their favor. It's not nearly as cut and dry as many of you make it out to be. Even if we finish 5-1, OM could conceivably finish 6-1 if they take 2 of 3 from A&M, and A&M could sweep USC and you have a 3 way tie for first place in the west and 3 teams with 20 wins. And in that scenario, we might not get a national seed even with 20 wins. We need to root against them, period. This isn't a hard concept.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by War Machine Dawg

We're a consensus Top 3 team. Assuming we take care of business the next two weekends, we're a national seed. Y'all are overthinking the hell out of this.

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Consensus top 3 team according to the polls, which the NCAA has proven time and time again that they do not even give two shits about. Polls mean less than nothing in their selection process in any sport.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HSVDawg

You are correct that RPI is just one factor. Head to head is also just one factor. Lets just list all of them out to show the whole picture:
1) RPI - Advantage OM
2) Record - Advantage OM
3) Head to Head - Advantage MSU
4) SOS - Advantage OM
5) Nonconference SOS - Advantage OM
6) Conference standings - Either advantage MSU or a wash after today
7) Marquee series wins - Advantage MSU

See, even if OM loses today, that is still 4 of 7 key metrics CURRENTLY in their favor. It's not nearly as cut and dry as many of you make it out to be. Even if we finish 5-1, OM could conceivably finish 6-1 if they take 2 of 3 from A&M, and A&M could sweep USC and you have a 3 way tie for first place in the west and 3 teams with 20 wins. And in that scenario, we might not get a national seed even with 20 wins. We need to root against them, period. This isn't a hard concept.

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What about top 50 wins? Top 25 wins?

Advantage State

I've been saying the same thing for two weeks, to no avail. People can deny it all they want, they are a legit threat to get a national seed if they continue to win. Should they win today, which I think they win and then end up beating aTm 2/3 they'll have a good case.

We will finish ranked higher than them
We will finish ahead of them in the West
We have beaten them 3/4
We have more quality wins

They arent getting anything over us