Basketball Schedule Analysis

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08-20-2015, 10:27 AM
lachepas565

Basketball Schedule Analysis

I know this has been out for a little while, but I just took a look at the basketball schedule. Whoever does the scheduling needs to do a better job at getting some decent games and avoiding landmines. This schedule will make it very hard to build a decent RPI and make the win total required to make the tournament higher than is has to be. Here is the non-conference schedule. The numbers listed beside them are KenPom rankings/2015 RPI/4 year average RPI

Eastern Washington (132/74/208)
Southern (269/229/215)
Miami (46/65/60)

The strength of schedule may really hinge on beating Miami because the winner of that game will likely get:

Utah (8/19/134)

The loser will probably get

Texas Tech (146/184/191)

The other side of the bracket includes Butler, Minnesota, Temple and Missouri State so it should provide a decent opponent.

UT Martin (143/177/287)
Texas Southern (202/118/194)
UMKC (284/295/274)
Florida St (97/110/65)
Tulane (238/214/216)
Northern Colorado (257/246/243)
North Carolina Central (98/127/153)

Assuming a W vs Miami, and pulling a decent team from the other side of the Puerto Rico Shootout, I only count 4 shots at top 100 RPI wins (Miami, Utah, other team, FSU). Then, I count 8 teams that could be RPI bombs ? even beating them pulling down the rating. The only team on the schedule that?s right in the sweet spot of scheduling in North Carolina Central. They?ve been a solid team that should have a decent ranking and may even sneak into the top 100, but should still be a very winnable game. Eastern Washington may hit that category, but they have a rough history.

Then the SEC didn?t help any by not being a part of the SEC/Big 12 shootout and the SEC teams on the schedule twice are:

Arkansas ? could be solid, but just suspended a big chunk of their starting line-up
USC ? have been terrible for a while, but showed a little sign of life last year
Alabama ? just fired their coach, not sure what they?ll have next year
A&M ? decent team, but nothing flashy to put in the win column
OM ? probably taking a big step back this year

I just think that whoever put this together could have done a much better job of getting a decent strength of schedule and it will hurt when it comes to tournament selection/seeding.
08-20-2015, 11:20 AM
maroonmania

Well, on the bright side it looks like we might avoid playing a 300+ RPI team for the first time in quite a number of years. Guess there is the possibility that UT-Martin or UMKC might sink that low but hopefully they won't.
08-20-2015, 11:28 AM
messageboardsuperhero

Look for the weak schedules to end going forward. This one is on Ray.
08-20-2015, 05:29 PM
smootness

A&M is going to be really, really good. They're my pick to win the SEC.
08-20-2015, 07:51 PM
archdog

Surely you jest about aTM winning the "SEC". MSU or Kentucky are going to win the SEC.
08-20-2015, 07:57 PM
thf24

Quote:

Originally Posted by smootness

A&M is going to be really, really good. They're my pick to win the SEC.

They lost multiple key players off a terrible defense. They've got Chavis but even he isn't going to be able to fix it in one season. And they're either going to be playing a pure air-raid QB, which I'll believe will work in the SEC when I see it, or a true freshman at that position. They'll be flashy at times but I just can't see them being a contender late in the season.
08-20-2015, 08:24 PM
dickiedawg

This... Is a little sad.
08-20-2015, 08:41 PM
BayouDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by smootness

A&M is going to be really, really good. They're my pick to win the SEC.

I really don't think Billy Kennedy is a very good coach. He reminds me a lot of Stansbury. He is a good recruiter and he'll win a big game or two a year but his teams also play down to their competition and they crap the bed against a few really bad teams every year. I mean he lost to Ray once and he should have lost a couple more times. He and Johnny Jones seem to be about the same caliber. Although Simmons may be able to hide some of Jones deficiencies if he's as advertised.
08-20-2015, 08:52 PM
BayouDawg

I think if we take care of business and win atleast 10 non conference games (preferably 11), finish in the top 5 or 6 in the SEC, and win a game or two in the SEC tourney then we're in. Northern Miss didn't have many quality wins, if any, this past year and they got in. As long as we avoid losses to the really bad RPI teams then we'll be fine.
08-21-2015, 08:46 AM
lachepas565

Quote:

Originally Posted by BayouDawg

I think if we take care of business and win atleast 10 non conference games (preferably 11), finish in the top 5 or 6 in the SEC, and win a game or two in the SEC tourney then we're in. Northern Miss didn't have many quality wins, if any, this past year and they got in. As long as we avoid losses to the really bad RPI teams then we'll be fine.

Meh - they had road wins over Arkansas and Oregon and a neutral site win over Cincinnati. That was basically the resume that was good enough for first 4. They beat A&M and Florida twice, which helped the rating, but that's not a high quality win in the eyes of the committee, I don't think.

Maybe the SEC will provide more opportunity for quality wins this year, but there's not much of a shot at quality wins outside of Puerto Rico - essentially the chance at quality wins rest on the game vs Miami. If you win that game, you get another shot and possibly a 3rd. Lose to Miami, and get Texas Tech next and the last remaining shot at a decent win could be Florida St - and they haven't been great recently. That's just a lot of pressure on the Miami game.
08-21-2015, 09:56 AM
BayouDawg

Yea I forgot the Bears won at Oregon. We may need to win at FSU. That might be a quality win since it's a true road game. We get Arkansas twice so maybe we can get another road win there. We may need to finish in the top 4 in the conference to guarantee we get in. We definitely have to avoid bad losses out of conference though. There aren't enough big games on our schedule to make up for a really bad loss
08-21-2015, 12:16 PM
Dawg61

Quote:

Originally Posted by BayouDawg

Yea I forgot the Bears won at Oregon. We may need to win at FSU. That might be a quality win since it's a true road game. We get Arkansas twice so maybe we can get another road win there. We may need to finish in the top 4 in the conference to guarantee we get in. We definitely have to avoid bad losses out of conference though. There aren't enough big games on our schedule to make up for a really bad loss

Yea looks like we need to sweep OOC or only have a loss to Utah.
08-21-2015, 02:57 PM
the59dawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by thf24

They lost multiple key players off a terrible defense. They've got Chavis but even he isn't going to be able to fix it in one season. And they're either going to be playing a pure air-raid QB, which I'll believe will work in the SEC when I see it, or a true freshman at that position. They'll be flashy at times but I just can't see them being a contender late in the season.

Ummm, uh, basketball?