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Not sure how a Quad 3 road win got us that much traction but that's a massive jump for us.
What it tells me is the metrics like us and that we still I think can get a 6/7 seed if we can find ways to win 3 of the 4 unranked games and get 1 of the games against a ranked team.
Rutgers jumped 13 spots to #86; that seems like part of it
Arizona state jumped 7 spots for win at Utah
ETA... big games today
Penn state at NW (-8.5)
North Texas at SMU (-5.5)
Tulane at Memphis (-8.5)
#35 net
#33 kenpom
#32 rpi
#35 BPI
We're putting together a solid resume
I think people talk way too much about the Southern game and not nearly enough about Auburn and Tennessee.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
Tournament resumes are built on what you can do. And we've proven that we can beat two of the top teams in the country.
Right now we aren't a bubble team. We are fairly solidly in with every metric out there. Probably a 9 seed right now. And we've got more opportunities to prove what we can do.
Also, we became a Quad 1 win for Alabama, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Florida last night by moving to 35.
If we can just hold serve, win the one's that we're supposed(OM, ARK, SC), not get blown out in the two road games we'll be underdogs(Aub, A&M), and split the two toss ups(UK, @LSU), then we'll be safely in.
Here's BPI win % for rest of schedule...Quote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200
Ark 88.7%
OM 77.6%
LSU 56.0%
Kentucky 60.8%
Auburn 14.6%
aTm 21.5%
SC 73.6%
According to BPI, we have a decent shot at pulling it off
I think we win all of our home games and one of the 3 on the road. UK is falling apart. USC will be tough but double dipping with home baseball that weekend should make for a helluva crowd.
I just can’t count UK as a win because we have only beat them once since Cal was there and that was in the SEC tournament during the COVID year when they had a losing overall record. Until we prove we can beat a tournament based UK team I just have to chalk that up as a loss. That being said, I think we win the other home games including USCe. That means the LSU game probably becomes the biggest game out there. We did a good job the last 2 games taking care of business. Now if we win these next 3 I think we have a solid shot at 9-9 and probably an 8 seed
Tennessee and Auburn helped make up for Southern, but if we hadn't lost that Southern game our NET is most likely 25-28, and we are being projected as 6-7 seed instead of a 10-11. That loss has hurt us bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by MetEdDawg
If we take 3 out of the next 4 we be in. We need to beat OM here.
And if we beat southern, but lose to one of Auburn/tenn, we'd be in the same position. I guess my point is both happened, and it's time to just let it go.Quote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200
Committee will also view us as pre-Tolu/with Tolu
Can you show your work on the NET calculation?Quote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200
I don't even think the NET calculators know NET calculation, but I've got enough damn sense to know if we don't lose to a team around 200 in NET we'd be 5-10 spots higher. If you can't figure that out, then I don't know what to tell you. Why some of you can't accept that the Southern loss was awful, and possibly the worst loss in modern school history, and has made it way tougher on our tournament resume is a mystery.Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
No one is disagreeing that the loss to Southern is bad for our resume and hurts our NET, but unless you can show your work, I don't know what the point of just claiming what the NET would be had we won. Why wouldn't our NET be 24? Or 30? Or 32? Or 20? And given that offensive and defensive efficiency are components of the formula, it would depend on exactly how we won that game anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by msudawg1200
Maybe it's just a personality difference between you and me, but I would never just throw a number out there and assert it as fact unless I could back it up mathematically. Back in the day, I built an RPI spreadsheet in Excel, matched it up against the official RPI numbers, and then I could quote exactly what a win or loss would do to our ranking. I've never found an exact formula to do that for NET, but I would like to.
People forget the teams around us also play games, so sometimes a jump or fall is more due to the teams around us winning or losing.
Yep, anybody old enough to remember Mr. Temple in Calculus classes? He always demanded, on every problem ---Quote:
Originally Posted by Quaoarsking
Given:
To Find:
Show your work.
Pretty disappointing that north Texas couldn't hold on today for a big win
North Texas will eventually fall to a quad 3 win by seasons end. At the same time I think Northwestern will move up to a quad 1 win. Wazzu will end up border line