APR Math

[MetEdDawg]

Based on 2023 numbers, if I've done this right, here's where we stand if it comes to bowl teams making it with 5 wins:

We are tied for 19th in APR. Solid spot. There are currently two teams in front of us that could end up with 5 wins and beat us out for a bowl spot:

1. Wake Forest - They are 4-7 and have a game against 5-6 Syracuse. We definitely need to pull for Syracuse here.

2. Rice - They sit at 5-6 so there's nothing we can do here really. They win they take a bowl spot at 6-6. They lose and they are ahead of us in APR.

After that we are the next team up. This team needs the bowl practice and a chance to get a coach in during that time and work with the team.

Folks can crap on an 5-7 bowl all they want. I would rather get the extra practices than not get them.

[confucius say]

Anybody got an update on how many 5-7 teams should get bowl games?

[msudawg1200]

You forgot 5-6 Minnesota also

[MetEdDawg]

You forgot 5-6 Minnesota also

I knew I would miss one. You are correct. They are ahead of us as well and there's nothing we can do about that.

So we will be either the 3rd or 4th available 5 win team depending on what Wake does

[Leeshouldveflanked]

If we dont beat Ole Miss and for some reason we are offered a bowl bid we should refuse it. Time to move on, purge and rebuild.
If we beat Ole Miss, let them go to a bowl then purge and rebuild

[msudawg1200]

Anybody got an update on how many 5-7 teams should get bowl games?

Here's what it's looking like. Counting all the bowl eligible teams, plus 5 win Minnesota and Rice, and the winner of 5-6 Syracuse and 4-7 Wake(winner gets in over us regardless) there are 73 of the 82 bowl slots taken. I'm counting JMU and Jax State in the 73, because they will get picked first over any 5-7 teams. Also, Navy is 5-5 with SMU and Army left. Army is 5-6, but two wins are against FCS teams. So, pretty much the winner of the Army-Navy game is in and loser out. This is part of the 73.

Now, this means there are only 8 bowl slots we can afford to be taken for us to be team 82. There are 19 teams in play for those 8 slots. Therefore, we need these teams to go no better than 8-11. According to ESPN FPI, 9 of these teams are favored to win. Again, we need no more than 8 to win.. Now, we know College Football, especially rivalry week, never goes chalk. Here's a look at the teams and games:

Favored to win:
Va Tech at Virginia
Illinois vs Northwestern
UCF vs Houston
USF vs Charlotte
Marshall vs Ark State
ULL vs ULM
Old Dominion vs Georgia St
Northern Illinois vs Kent St
Utah St at New Mexico

Favored to lose:
Nebraska vs Iowa
Florida vs FSU
South Carolina vs Clemson
TCU at Oklahoma
BYU at Okie State
Wazzu at Washington
Cal at UCLA
Eastern Mich at Buffalo
Central Mich vs Toledo
Colorado St at Hawaii

Of course, if we just beat the RebelBearSharks Thanksgiving night none of this matters. BTW, do they still have that stupid Shark mascot? Anyway, enjoy rivalry week. Maybe, we won't have to keep up with any of these games.

[msstate7]

Does James Madison get the bowl ban lifted if there aren't enough bowl eligible teams?

[confucius say]

Here's what it's looking like. Counting all the bowl eligible teams, plus 5 win Minnesota and Rice, and the winner of 5-6 Syracuse and 4-7 Wake(winner gets in over us regardless) there are 73 of the 82 bowl slots taken. I'm counting JMU and Jax State in the 73, because they will get picked first over any 5-7 teams. Also, Navy is 5-5 with SMU and Army left. Army is 5-6, but two wins are against FCS teams. So, pretty much the winner of the Army-Navy game is in and loser out. This is part of the 73.

Now, this means there are only 8 bowl slots we can afford to be taken for us to be team 82. There are 19 teams in play for those 8 slots. Therefore, we need these teams to go no better than 8-11. According to ESPN FPI, 9 of these teams are favored to win. Again, we need no more than 8 to win.. Now, we know College Football, especially rivalry week, never goes chalk. Here's a look at the teams and games:

Favored to win:
Va Tech at Virginia
Illinois vs Northwestern
UCF vs Houston
USF vs Charlotte
Marshall vs Ark State
ULL vs ULM
Old Dominion vs Georgia St
Northern Illinois vs Kent St
Utah St vs New Mexico

Favored to lose:
Nebraska vs Iowa
Florida vs FSU
South Carolina vs Clemson
TCU at Oklahoma
BYU at Okie State
Wazzu at Washington
Cal at UCLA
Eastern Mich at Buffalo
Central Mich vs Toledo
Colorado St at Hawaii

Of course, if we just beat the RebelBearSharks Thanksgiving night none of this matters. BTW, do they still have that stupid Shark mascot? Anyway, enjoy rivalry week. Maybe, we won't have to keep up with any of these games.

Good stuff. Thanks!

[msudawg1200]

Does James Madison get the bowl ban lifted if there aren't enough bowl eligible teams?

Yes. Both them and Jax State will go before any 5-7 teams are picked. We are 4th in the pecking order of the possible 5-7 teams. Rice and Minnesota are in front of us. Wake is 4-7 but passes us if they beat Syracuse. Syracuse is 5-6 so the winner gets in over us anyway.

[MetEdDawg]

Syracuse just fired Dino Babers so that adds another interesting wrinkle to that game.

[msudawg1200]

Syracuse just fired Dino Babers so that adds another interesting wrinkle to that game.

Does make it interesting, but it's not going to affect us either way. Syracuse wins they are 6-6 and in. If they lose Wake gets to 5-7 and they are ahead of us in APR.

[Really Clark?]

Syracuse just fired Dino Babers so that adds another interesting wrinkle to that game.

Curt Cignetti...there will be mutual interest there.

Dino was 8-6, 10-3 at BG and a hot name when he took over Syracuse