Chadwell offense

[chef dixon]

Not to rain on the parade, because I think he is obviously a great coach, but can his offense really win consistently at a place like MSU? I just don't see us running the ball at a 2:1 clip and being successful in this league with the trench athletes we are going against.

I realize we aren't likely competing with Bama, UGA, LSU (and now prob Texas/OU) anyway but I see no shot at all trying to run it down their throat at that rate.

Maybe some better football minds can tell me why I'm wrong.

[Quaoarsking]

Chadwell doesn't appear to be committed to running more than passing. Coastal Carolina had more passing yards than rushing in each year from 2019 through 2022, topping out at 60.7% yards from passing in 2022.

[CaptainObvious]

Let me use some MSU math.

75 plays per game on offense. 2:1 run to pass ratio would be 50 runs to 25 passes. Even at that very unlikely number of running plays, figure 3.5 yards average per run that is 175 yards rushing conservatively speaking. Then figure the league average per pass play at 8.5 yards per pass average that is 212.5 yards a game passing. The QB ain't going 25/25 so 17 completions will net the 212.5 yards.

That is about as conservative a yards per game you would expect with a half way decent offense. My point is, even though highly unlikely to run it 50 times and only throw it 25 times, that is a pretty balanced offense. Again, very conservative but balanced.

More likely to be 40-45 runs and 30 passes though which is not 2:1 ratio.

[Pancho]

but that is hard for some to visualize

[Mjoelner34]

Let me use some MSU math.

75 plays per game on offense. 2:1 run to pass ratio would be 50 runs to 25 passes. Even at that very unlikely number of running plays, figure 3.5 yards average per run that is 175 yards rushing conservatively speaking. Then figure the league average per pass play at 8.5 yards per pass average that is 212.5 yards a game passing. The QB ain't going 25/25 so 17 completions will net the 212.5 yards.

That is about as conservative a yards per game you would expect with a half way decent offense. My point is, even though highly unlikely to run it 50 times and only throw it 25 times, that is a pretty balanced offense. Again, very conservative but balanced.

More likely to be 40-45 runs and 30 passes though which is not 2:1 ratio.

Per ESPN stats, they are actually 2.2:1 run to pass this year. 484 rushes to 219 pass attempts.

[chef dixon]

Good to know he's been more pass heavy before. Probably molding to what is working for his team in his conference right now.

We just aren't going to have the bodies to go 2:1 run/pass against the tops of our league. I'm not expecting to beat them all the time, but not losing 45-7 every time with the game over in the first quarter would be nice.

[Maroonthirteen]

We won with Jackie's offenses. We won with Mullen's offense.

This coaching change will officially close the book on the Leach/air raid era. I hope the new coach can unite the fans and get us past arguing over offensive philosophy.

[ZedFedder]

It still feels like Chadwell is a pipe dream. Do we have a realistic shot?

[Lord McBuckethead]

Let me use some MSU math.

75 plays per game on offense. 2:1 run to pass ratio would be 50 runs to 25 passes. Even at that very unlikely number of running plays, figure 3.5 yards average per run that is 175 yards rushing conservatively speaking. Then figure the league average per pass play at 8.5 yards per pass average that is 212.5 yards a game passing. The QB ain't going 25/25 so 17 completions will net the 212.5 yards.

That is about as conservative a yards per game you would expect with a half way decent offense. My point is, even though highly unlikely to run it 50 times and only throw it 25 times, that is a pretty balanced offense. Again, very conservative but balanced.

More likely to be 40-45 runs and 30 passes though which is not 2:1 ratio.

I feel like we lose most games with those numbers.

[mo7888]

I feel like we lose most games with those numbers.

Yup

[William Tecumsah Sherman]

When you are beating another team?s ass, do you not run the ball more?

[BlackSailsDawg]

Good to know he's been more pass heavy before. Probably molding to what is working for his team in his conference right now.

We just aren't going to have the bodies to go 2:1 run/pass against the tops of our league. I'm not expecting to beat them all the time, but not losing 45-7 every time with the game over in the first quarter would be nice.

Yeah he adapts to the game. If you are going to rush 3 and drop 8, he is going to run it until you stop it or move out of it. Then he is going to throw it. Everything is designed to attack space.

[confucius say]

They are 10-0 and have won by an average of 18.3 points per game. Some of that is probably running with big leads.

ETA: they have games where they have run it at more than a 3:1 ratio and a game where it's a little over a 1:1 ratio (36 runs to 29 passes).

[Dawgology]

I don’t care HOW his offense looks as long as it’s exciting and scores a 17 ton of points. If he can’t do it then I want GJ Kinne

[Mjoelner34]

Yeah he adapts to the game. If you are going to rush 3 and drop 8, he is going to run it until you stop it or move out of it. Then he is going to throw it. Everything is designed to attack space.

THAT is what we need!

[GoDawgz]

10-0 is 10-0! I dont care if he is running the wing-T as long as he's winning!
Anyone that complains about how a coach is winning needs to step away from the keyboard!
That is such a State fan base thing to do.

[confucius say]

Nobody would complain about 10-0.
People are just concerned whether what allows for 10-0 there will translate to here when we are at a decided talent disadvantage.

[TrapGame]

I'd be willing to bet Chadwell's offense does much better here than JoMo's.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Here are Chadwell's FBS offenses' run/pass splits (and, yes, I'm counting his OC stints in '17 and '18 even though Coastal Carolina was transitioning to FBS those years):

'17 - 37.2:25.3 (OC / interim HC)
'18 - 42.9:22.1 (OC)
'19 - 43.3:27.8
'20 - 43.2:23.9
'21 - 39.1:24.8
'22 - 39.5:27.8
'23 - 48.4:21.9

Couple of things strike me about that:

First, his run emphasis during his FBS career puts his run-pass split in the same ballpark as State's in 2017 with Fitzgerald at QB (though even still slightly more favoring the run). So we're not talking Ga. Tech. under Johnson or a service academy. But he's pretty damn run heavy most years.

Second, this year at Liberty is his most run-heavy FBS offense ever. He's gone that direction with almost entire new RBs from the portal. As for QBs, it looks like they had a two-QB system under Freeze in '22. Both QBs returned, but the more pass-heavy of the two has played very little this season even though he's a senior. The better runner -- who's also presumably the better QB overall at this point -- is starting now.

Third, those total play counts made me wonder about offensive pace. Turns out Chadwell's offenses often don't run many plays per game. Here are his offenses' national ranks in total plays:

'17 - 123
'18 - 121
'19 - 86
'20 - 18
'21 - 89
'22 - 62
'23 - 40

That is closer to Moorhead than Leach or Mullen. Under Leach we were 30th, 13th, and 39th. And from '15 through '17 under Mullen we were 49th, 45th and 17th. Moorhead's two years we were 97th and 91st. Though to be fair, Chadwell's yards per play have been Top 15 nationally three of the past four years, so maybe they're running fewer plays partly because they're gaining so many yards per play.

All of this just shows you that you can be successful on offense lots of different ways. Here are all his teams national scoring and total offense ranks, along with TDs-per-drive and % of yards gained per drive in his FBS years:

Char. Southern (FCS)

'13 - 73rd / 64th
'14 - 50th / 49th
'15 - 49th / 72nd
'16 - 20th / 34th

Coastal Carolina

'17 - 102nd / 106th / 63rd / 78th (reclass year / OC / interim HC)
'18 - 84th / 87th / 65th / 67th (reclass year / OC)
'19 - 55th / 73rd / 46th / 54th
'20 - 18th / 25th / 6th / 10th
'21 - 5th / 4th / 2nd / 3rd
'22 - 60th / 50th / 27th / 48th

Liberty

'23 - 10th / 7th / 3rd / 6th

For context on those Liberty numbers, here are Freeze's stats in the same categories in '21 and '22:

'21 - 25th / 35th / 17th / 43rd
'22 - 71st / 66th / 65th / 74th

Roster turnover or not, Chadwell's done a remarkable job this year.

(Defense is a different story, by the way. His defenses at C. Carolina were complete and utter garbage three of his last four years. And the defense at Liberty this year is middle of the pack or lower among CUSA teams. His DC at C. Carolina is at Ga. State now, and he now as co-DCs at Liberty -- one dude who was co-DC under Freeze and one dude who was a DL coach at other G5 schools and with Chadwell at other stops. His performance on side of the ball does not instill much confidence in his staff choices. That'd need to improve immediately if he jumps to the next level.)

[KB21]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8LsJ9FXUAA4ahu?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

[KB21]

Here is Kansas and Leipold's play call break down:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8LshxbXAAIBCmh?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

[KB21]

There are a lot of similarities between Leipold's offense and Chadwell's offense. Leipold does more stuff and is more multiple overall. Chadwell is a Keep It Simple Stupid type of coach.

[Mjoelner34]

Chadwell is a Keep It Simple Stupid type of coach.

Besides trying to turn Fitz into Dan Marino in the cold rain, I think that was Shitshow Joe's main problem. The O-line couldn't block for the 18 seconds it took for the QB to make all of his reads before deciding what to do with the ball.

[Bothrops]

The days of us having so many options at WR are about to be over. We will be run first out of necessity.