Off and Def Efficiency Numbers

[confucius say]

Anybody got ours compared to auburn?
Somebody posted a neat little linear graph that I would like to see updated if you still have access to it.

[Quaoarsking]

In FPI, we are #82 in offense and #46 in defense.
Auburn is #95 in offense and #15 in defense.

However, those are across the whole year, and I think we're a little better than both of our numbers now. I like our chances.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Here's a sample (national ranks):

State

TDs per drive - 77th
Drives that gain at least 10 yds - 101st
% of available yards gained per drive - 92nd

TDs allowed per drive - 92nd
Drives allowed that gain at least 10 yards - 83rd
% of available yards allowed per drive - 82nd

Auburn

TDs per drive - 92nd
Drives that gain at least 10 yds - 113th
% of available yards gained per drive - 124th

TDs allowed per drive - 68th
Drives allowed that gain at least 10 yards - 58th
% of available yards allowed per drive - 62nd

For context, Auburn's offensive numbers in those categories are -- alongside Arkansas's equally miserable numbers -- the worst in the SEC. Yes, even worse than Vandy. (And of course we're not many rungs higher.) They're currently even a little worse than they were last year and are approaching the rarified air of their offense in 2012, when they were winless in the SEC.

For whatever the opponent adjustments of the FEI system are worth, that scale ranks MSU's offense at 63rd nationally and Auburn at 87th. (Bottom four in the SEC are State, Vandy, Auburn, and Arkansas.) And it ranks MSU defense at 44th (10th in the SEC) and Auburn's at 15th (4th in the SEC). Those opponent adjustments tell me that the system still likes the SEC a lot because our raw defensive numbers are rough and Auburn's seem average. (I mean, vs. Power 5 teams, Auburn is bottom third in the SEC in yards allowed per play and 9th in scoring D.)

So, like last week, the matchup is about as good as we could ever hope for on the road. Auburn's offense is very, very, very bad. And their defense, while better than ours, is far from elite. And even then, their strength may be more in pass D than run D, which should play to Wright's strength.

[confucius say]

Good stuff.

[Santiago]

Auburn D shut down ole miss for the most part, but were just worn out by the 4th quarter without any help from the offense.
Our game may boil down to that in the 4th, and making a big play.

[Coach34]

Auburn D shut down ole miss for the most part, but were just worn out by the 4th quarter without any help from the offense.
Our game may boil down to that in the 4th, and making a big play.

Dart threw 17 (completing 10) passes Saturday night while they ran it 56 times.

Auburn only threw 17 passes on the night

Our game Saturday might be over in 2 1/2 hours

[BuckyIsAB****]

Auburn got gashed on the ground by an OM OL that is not great.

[MBDawg601]

In FPI, we are #82 in offense and #46 in defense.
Auburn is #95 in offense and #15 in defense.

However, those are across the whole year, and I think we're a little better than both of our numbers now. I like our chances.

200 yards of offense and 7 points.

We may actually be worse now.

Defensively, since we are throwing numbers around. Arkansas is 119th in total yards. We held them to their typical performance.

[confucius say]

Auburn got gashed on the ground by an OM OL that is not great.

True. But auburn had to respect the passing game.

[Really Clark?]

True. But auburn had to respect the passing game.

Kind of goes both ways though. Auburn's pass defense is a lot better than their rush defense so that's how teams are attacking them too.

[NWADAWG]

200 yards of offense and 7 points.

We may actually be worse now.

Defensively, since we are throwing numbers around. Arkansas is 119th in total yards. We held them to their typical performance.

Hogs offensive performance - total yards

379 - western Carolina
308 - Kent state
424 - BYU
426 - LSU
174 - ATM
286 - ole miss
250 - Bama
200 - State

200 yards is not their "typical performance".

[BrunswickDawg]

200 yards of offense and 7 points.

We may actually be worse now.

Defensively, since we are throwing numbers around. Arkansas is 119th in total yards. We held them to their typical performance.

No we didn't - we held them well below their typical performance. They were averaging 321 yards a game on the season, and 312 against P5 opponents. We held them to 200 yards. Only A&M has held them to less (174 yards) - even then A&M still somehow gave up 15 offensive points against them (compared to our 3). But, yards aren't what matters - its the score. Arkansas was averaging 29.8 points a game coming in, and averaging 25 points a game against P5 teams. We held them to 3. The next best team (OM) gave up 20.

So, does Arkansas suck? Yeah probably. But acting like we didn't have an impressive defensive performance against them is ridiculous. It's statistically the best defensive performance they have seen all year.

[Really Clark?]

200 yards of offense and 7 points.

We may actually be worse now.

Defensively, since we are throwing numbers around. Arkansas is 119th in total yards. We held them to their typical performance.

That was not their typical performance. In just yards that was their second worse performance of the season and 112 yards less than their average. You didn't and don't want to do points.

You are calling people out in threads asking if they watched the game and completely fabricating that everyone is all giddy over last Sat. It's a false narrative and you need to get over yourself. Defense played a lot better Sat. Period. We will find out shortly if it was a mirage or if it is something to build on. Quit acting like everyone is satisfied with that, they are not. You are just creating a fake narrative to make pissy posts, go find some Midol.

[Santiago]

True. But auburn had to respect the passing game.

I wonder if Auburn's offense could muster some sustaining drives, if that would give their defense even better stats as well. Not to mention, just not being worn down in the 4th.

[LC Dawg]

No we didn't - we held them well below their typical performance. They were averaging 321 yards a game on the season, and 312 against P5 opponents. We held them to 200 yards. Only A&M has held them to less (174 yards) - even then A&M still somehow gave up 15 offensive points against them (compared to our 3). But, yards aren't what matters - its the score. Arkansas was averaging 29.8 points a game coming in, and averaging 25 points a game against P5 teams. We held them to 3. The next best team (OM) gave up 20.

So, does Arkansas suck? Yeah probably. But acting like we didn't have an impressive defensive performance against them is ridiculous. It's statistically the best defensive performance they have seen all year.

Exactly.
I understand people not being happy with the season so far but not acknowledging that our defense played very well last week doesn't make sense.

[MBDawg601]

That was not their typical performance. In just yards that was their second worse performance of the season and 112 yards less than their average. You didn't and don't want to do points.

You are calling people out in threads asking if they watched the game and completely fabricating that everyone is all giddy over last Sat. It's a false narrative and you need to get over yourself. Defense played a lot better Sat. Period. We will find out shortly if it was a mirage or if it is something to build on. Quit acting like everyone is satisfied with that, they are not. You are just creating a fake narrative to make pissy posts, go find some Midol.

We are still one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Not sure what you are arguing. Sounds like you are a little upset?

[MBDawg601]

Hogs offensive performance - total yards

379 - western Carolina
308 - Kent state
424 - BYU
426 - LSU
174 - ATM
286 - ole miss
250 - Bama
200 - State

200 yards is not their "typical performance".

They haven't broken 300 yards in the past 4 games. Looks pretty typical to me.

[Really Clark?]

We are still one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Not sure what you are arguing. Sounds like you are a little upset?

Naw, just giving it back to you since you want to call people out falsely. Thought I was I pretty clear you are making up a narrative.

[Really Clark?]

They haven't broken 300 yards in the past 4 games. Looks pretty typical to me and they still out gained us.

Both offenses sucked...but we out gained them.

TAM, # 9 in the country in total defense
Bama, # 15 in the country in total defense

Would think they had a lot to do with them not gaining a lot in 2 of those games

We are 9th in conference in total defense and 7th in conference only games. Seems there are several teams worse than ours.

[MBDawg601]

Naw, just giving it back to you since you want to call people out falsely. Thought I was I pretty clear you are making up a narrative.

Calling people out? You mean disagreeing with them and stating facts about our performance?

Keep posting like a child. It is a good look for you.

[MBDawg601]

Both offenses sucked...but we out gained them.

TAM, # 9 in the country in total defense
Bama, # 15 in the country in total defense

Would think they had a lot to do with them not gaining a lot in 2 of those games

We are 9th in conference in total defense and 7th in conference only games. Seems there are several teams worse than ours.

Okay, now I can tell you are clinging to every bit of hope you have. You win. You are right. I am pleased with Saturdays game. You have convinced me.

Thanks,

[Really Clark?]

Calling people out? You mean disagreeing with them and stating facts about our performance?

Keep posting like a child. It is a good look for you.

No, asking if they watched a game because you disagree with how well the defense played. Lying that people are happy over the entire game and trying to push a fake narrative. The only thing people were happy with was we won and the defense played better.

You were the one that went down that childish path. If you are going to dish it, take it when it comes back at you.

[Really Clark?]

Okay, now I can tell you are clinging to every bit of hope you have. You win. You are right. I am pleased with Saturdays game. You have convinced me.

Thanks,

Your welcome

[MBDawg601]

No, asking if they watched a game because you disagree with how well the defense played. Lying that people are happy over the entire game and trying to push a fake narrative. The only thing people were happy with was we won and the defense played better.

You were the one that went down that childish path. If you are going to dish it, take it when it comes back at you.

I never once said anything directly to you. I am not sure what got you so upset, but if I offended you I am sorry.

I simply said that we are still not a good football team and listed some reasons why. You like to over react a bit eh?

[Really Clark?]

I never once said anything directly to you. I am not sure what got you so upset, but if I offended you I am sorry.

I simply said that we are still not a good football team and listed some reasons why. You like to over react a bit eh?

Yeah except you did actually, directly to me and CC24:

"Did either of you watch the game? It was one of the worst games I have watched in a while. It was as if I were watching a swac game. Neither team could get anything going offensively and perform simple fundamentals of throwing and catching, kicking field goals ect.

We won, yes. No-one denies that, but my God stop acting like we have turned the corner. Some folks are taking that game as the turning point of our season. We performed just as bad with an entirely different style QB.

If you think this staff is doing a well enough job coaching fundamentals and making decisions during the game, I guess the rest of us should follow suit and support less than mediocre football coaching."

Most of that was a complete fabrication of any thing we stated or believe about the program. We never said we turned the corner. We never made like we were overjoyed with the entire performance of the team. We never said the staff is doing good enough to keep following mediocre football. Never did we allude to that in anyway. That was the exact post from you.

[Commercecomet24]

Yeah except you did actually, directly to me and CC24:

"Did either of you watch the game? It was one of the worst games I have watched in a while. It was as if I were watching a swac game. Neither team could get anything going offensively and perform simple fundamentals of throwing and catching, kicking field goals ect.

We won, yes. No-one denies that, but my God stop acting like we have turned the corner. Some folks are taking that game as the turning point of our season. We performed just as bad with an entirely different style QB.

If you think this staff is doing a well enough job coaching fundamentals and making decisions during the game, I guess the rest of us should follow suit and support less than mediocre football coaching."

Most of that was a complete fabrication of any thing we stated or believe about the program. We never said we turned the corner. We never made like we were overjoyed with the entire performance of the team. We never said the staff is doing good enough to keep following mediocre football. Never did we allude to that in anyway. That was the exact post from you.

I'm gonna have to say.....yeah, this^^^^^^^^^^

I've stated repeatedly and so have you that we have a whole lot of work to do to get where we want to be as a team, but that game maybe, just maybe is what we need to make some progress. Time will tell and there's plenty of season left. I just want to see it play out. If we don't get better there'll be plenty of time for people to anguish over it then.

[MBDawg601]

Yeah except you did actually, directly to me and CC24:

"Did either of you watch the game? It was one of the worst games I have watched in a while. It was as if I were watching a swac game. Neither team could get anything going offensively and perform simple fundamentals of throwing and catching, kicking field goals ect.

We won, yes. No-one denies that, but my God stop acting like we have turned the corner. Some folks are taking that game as the turning point of our season. We performed just as bad with an entirely different style QB.

If you think this staff is doing a well enough job coaching fundamentals and making decisions during the game, I guess the rest of us should follow suit and support less than mediocre football coaching."

Most of that was a complete fabrication of any thing we stated or believe about the program. We never said we turned the corner. We never made like we were overjoyed with the entire performance of the team. We never said the staff is doing good enough to keep following mediocre football. Never did we allude to that in anyway. That was the exact post from you.

That was my exact post. The only thing I said to you was "did you either of you watch the game?" The rest was a response to CC24. I'm sorry you read it directed to you, but the reply was to Cc24.

You can get your panties out of a wad now. Go keyboard warrior someone else.

[Really Clark?]

I'm gonna have to say.....yeah, this^^^^^^^^^^

I've stated repeatedly and so have you that we have a whole lot of work to do to get where we want to be as a team, but that game maybe, just maybe is what we need to make some progress. Time will tell and there's plenty of season left. I just want to see it play out. If we don't get better there'll be plenty of time for people to anguish over it then.

I know you have and what I've said as well. 5 games left will tell the tale.

[Prediction? Pain.]

No we didn't - we held them well below their typical performance. They were averaging 321 yards a game on the season, and 312 against P5 opponents. We held them to 200 yards. Only A&M has held them to less (174 yards) - even then A&M still somehow gave up 15 offensive points against them (compared to our 3). But, yards aren't what matters - its the score. Arkansas was averaging 29.8 points a game coming in, and averaging 25 points a game against P5 teams. We held them to 3. The next best team (OM) gave up 20.

So, does Arkansas suck? Yeah probably. But acting like we didn't have an impressive defensive performance against them is ridiculous. It's statistically the best defensive performance they have seen all year.

Good point about Arkansas's suckitude and our defense's solid play not being mutually exclusive. I don't think anyone's foolish enough to think that a single great game means that our D is back to '22 form. Arkansas is indeed a terrible offense that is now on a four-game streak of sub-300 yard performances. I mean, they averaged 1.24 yards per carry against U. Miss., the lowest an SEC opponent has had against them since 2014. And KJ's passer rating against us (81.1) is his lowest in the past three years by a wide margin, and lower than any that our phenomenal 2018 defense managed to hold an SEC QB to. They suck, they've been sucking for a month, and they hit rock bottom suckitude against us. But that doesn't mean that they were playing against air on the field. Our D could've stunk the joint up with missed tackles and sloppiness and lackadaisical lollygagging. But they didn't. They saw suckitude across the way and they made their opponent wallow in it.

As luck would have it, Arkansas's twin brother of offensive horror, Auburn, is on deck this week. So our defense gets a second bite at the apple. The (slightly) stiffer test could come against Kentucky, whose offense at least sort of approaches the level of SEC mediocrity. (That could change after their likely butt kicking against UT coming up. (To be fair, though, UT's defense is solid this year.)) If we can squash an inferior offense twice in a row and then show up against UK, I think that'd be a sign that we're getting closer to where we thought we'd be at the start of the year. Big if, but hey, it's got start with a game like they had against Arkansas.

ETA: This doesn't mean, by the way, that I'm stoked about our defense's play this year. The LSU, SC, and Western Michigan games were dumb, as is the fact that we're giving up TDs on 30% of our FBS opponents' drives, a rate that's good for 91st nationally and 11th in the SEC. Stuff needs to get better. Hopefully it is.

[Commercecomet24]

That was my exact post. The only thing I said to you was "did you either of you watch the game?" The rest was a response to CC24. I'm sorry you read it directed to you, but the reply was to Cc24.

You can get your panties out of a wad now. Go keyboard warrior someone else.

Let me offer my simple reply. Saturday was a good win for the program, and yes it was ugly. Do I think it cured the issues we've had? Heck no! Could it help to turn things around? Yes. Do we have a lot of work to do? Yes. And I've stated this repeatedly and my stance is the same. We have 5 games left and we aren't changing staff or players mid season so let's just see how it plays out. If we sink there'll be a whole off season to hear how bad we suck. JMHO and you don't have to agree with me and that's cool with me, because it doesn't bother me one iota if you don't. We all have opinions and you know what they say about them lol!

[Commercecomet24]

Good point about Arkansas's suckitude and our defense's solid play not being mutually exclusive. I don't think anyone's foolish enough to think that a single great game means that our D is back to '22 form. Arkansas is indeed a terrible offense that is now on a four-game streak of sub-300 yard performances. I mean, they averaged 1.24 yards per carry against U. Miss., the lowest an SEC opponent has had against them since 2014. And KJ's passer rating against us (81.1) is his lowest in the past three years by a wide margin, and lower than any that our phenomenal 2018 defense managed to hold an SEC QB to. They suck, they've been sucking for a month, and they hit rock bottom suckitude against us. But that doesn't mean that they were playing against air on the field. Our D could've stunk the joint up with missed tackles and sloppiness and lackadaisical lollygagging. But they didn't. They saw suckitude across the way and they made their opponent wallow in it.

As luck would have it, Arkansas's twin brother of offensive horror, Auburn, is on deck this week. So our defense gets a second bite at the apple. The (slightly) stiffer test could come against Kentucky, whose offense at least sort of approaches the level of SEC mediocrity. (That could change after their likely butt kicking against UT coming up. (To be fair, though, UT's defense is solid this year.)) If we can squash an inferior offense twice in a row and then show up against UK, I think that'd be a sign that we're getting closer to where we thought we'd be at the start of the year. Big if, but hey, it's got start with a game like they had against Arkansas.

Thanks, Pain for bringing some sanity! Great post as always,.

[Really Clark?]

Good point about Arkansas's suckitude and our defense's solid play not being mutually exclusive. I don't think anyone's foolish enough to think that a single great game means that our D is back to '22 form. Arkansas is indeed a terrible offense that is now on a four-game streak of sub-300 yard performances. I mean, they averaged 1.24 yards per carry against U. Miss., the lowest an SEC opponent has had against them since 2014. And KJ's passer rating against us (81.1) is his lowest in the past three years by a wide margin, and lower than any that our phenomenal 2018 defense managed to hold an SEC QB to. They suck, they've been sucking for a month, and they hit rock bottom suckitude against us. But that doesn't mean that they were playing against air on the field. Our D could've stunk the joint up with missed tackles and sloppiness and lackadaisical lollygagging. But they didn't. They saw suckitude across the way and they made their opponent wallow in it.

As luck would have it, Arkansas's twin brother of offensive horror, Auburn, is on deck this week. So our defense gets a second bite at the apple. The (slightly) stiffer test could come against Kentucky, whose offense at least sort of approaches the level of SEC mediocrity. (That could change after their likely butt kicking against UT coming up. (To be fair, though, UT's defense is solid this year.)) If we can squash an inferior offense twice in a row and then show up against UK, I think that'd be a sign that we're getting closer to where we thought we'd be at the start of the year. Big if, but hey, it's got start with a game like they had against Arkansas.

Great info as usual!! We are on such a razor thin edge that it could go either way. We will find out soon enough.

[Homedawg]

I see we've added yet another to the board. Just swell....

[Pancho]

It's sure good to add a bit more sanity

[Really Clark?]

It's sure good to add a bit more sanity

CC24 is the most sane person on the board. More sanity would be more like his level.

[CaptainObvious]

I will say that this team is sitting 1 game below where many thought they would be at this point.

I?m sure Most of us expected losses to LSU and Alabama because we always lose to them. So the only real disappointment has to be that we are 1 of Carolina?s 2 wins and that one by 1 score.

Many here thought that Arkansas would be a tough game to win before the season and probably marked it as a probable loss on our way to 6-6.

So record wise and opportunities still in front of us wise, the team is purt near where the majority thought they would be 7 games in.

But the Offense sucks!
And the Defense sucked until last Saturday!
And Special Teams sucked Saturday!

4 and 3 with a bullet baby!!! Here we come Alabama Tree Huggers!!

[Pancho]

CC24 is the most sane person on the board. More sanity would be more like his level.

I am simply agreeing with CC24

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks, Clark and Pancho. I always try to take an overview and take the emotion out of things when evaluating(it's really hard though when you are passionate about your teams). Also things are never quite as bad or as good as they seem, it's always somewhere in the middle. Also, I know I certainly don't have all the answers and I always enjoy hearing different opinions, because that's the best way to learn and grow. This is a great board most of the time and there are so many knowledgable folks on here that it's a wealth of information. Now let's all have a group hug, they are so cathartic, lol!

[Commercecomet24]

CC24 is the most sane person on the board. More sanity would be more like his level.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Really Clark? again

[Commercecomet24]

I am simply agreeing with CC24

Have some rep!