Bowl Projections post Egg Bowl

[BeastMan]

You must read the last paragraph as it is crucial to where MSU goes. I have said BBVA all along but I have changed my mind with the UGA thrilling win shaking things up.

http://3rdand57.com/beastmans-bowl-projections-4th-edition/

[EngineerDawg]

you have a very good point with MSU to Liberty. It makes sense.

Admin should post some vbets on MSU bowl destination and natty championship game.

[Dawgdom]

State will bring more people than Vandy to either bowl...I think it depends on what the Slivenator wants.

[Ronny]

..today & some projections have us playing Rutgers in the Compass Bowl. Even though Rutgers has yet to reach 6 wins (they play South Florida on Dec. 7).

Some projections have us playing Marshall in the LIberty. Marshall is good this year with a 9-3 record with one more game to play (vs. Rice).

Bottom line I would rather play a crappy Rutgers team in B'ham than play a solid team like Marshall in the liberty.

I think Ole Miss will play Marshall in the Liberty & we will play Rutgers if they can get their 6th win. If Rutgers can't get their 6th win, who the hell knows who we play.

[CadaverDawg]

..today & some projections have us playing Rutgers in the Compass Bowl. Even though Rutgers has yet to reach 6 wins (they play South Florida on Dec. 7).

Some projections have us playing Marshall in the LIberty. Marshall is good this year with a 9-3 record with one more game to play (vs. Rice).

Bottom line I would rather play a crappy Rutgers team in B'ham than play a solid team like Marshall in the liberty.

I think Ole Miss will play Marshall in the Liberty & we will play Rutgers if they can get their 6th win. If Rutgers can't get their 6th win, who the hell knows who we play.

I agree with you on who you'd rather play...but I disagree about OM. I'm pretty sure they will be in the Music City Bowl

[CJDAWG85]

Marshall struggles against physical teams. Their RB's have fumble issues. Rutgers just flat out sucks. Either way I'm happy to be bowling again, but I'd pick Liberty if I had to choose.

[BeastMan]

American athletic Conference cannot fill there bowl spots and if they can't, CUSA gets the next spot to fill. CUSA has 6 bowl tie ins and they have more than 6 bowl eligible teams, hence me putting a CUSA team in my BBVA projection

[Ronny]

I agree with you on who you'd rather play...but I disagree about OM. I'm pretty sure they will be in the Music City Bowl

..5 updated projections today & they all had Ole Miss in the Liberty.

[CadaverDawg]

..5 updated projections today & they all had Ole Miss in the Liberty.

Really? That would be great. Who did they have in Nashville? Vandy?

[Todd4State]

..5 updated projections today & they all had Ole Miss in the Liberty.

Out of curiousity, who did they have in the Music City?

[Covercorner2]

Ole Miss does not want to face GT and their triple option attack in Nashville....

[CJDAWG85]

Most have MSU playing Rutgers in the Compass... One had MSU playing Houston... One had MSU playing Marshall in the Liberty

[Pollodawg]

Liberty is a better bowl, no doubt. And I don't think we'd have any problems with Marshall.

[Todd4State]

Liberty is a better bowl, no doubt. And I don't think we'd have any problems with Marshall.

Scheme wise, they are about the same as us. So, we won't have to prepare for some crazy offense that we don't see a lot.

[Todd4State]

Ole Miss does not want to face GT and their triple option attack in Nashville....

Wommack, Ole Miss's DC, used to be the DC there under Paul Johnson. I bet he knows their offense pretty well.

[BeastMan]

Most networks don't talk to MSU or OM folks. They just look at paper and plug. I have heard that the OM money folks are saying MCB. A big time MSU guy I know says it Liberty. I'm factoring that in fwiw . 5-7 Rutgers still be put in projections is just stupid and shows that some of the big networks don't care to be right.

[curmudgeon]

Rutgers is 5-6, they play their last regular season game Saturday against hapless South Florida. Its no different than putting a 4-3 team in a bowl game earlier or ESPN having us projected to Compass last week before we played Ole Miss. People are projecting them to win the game.

[Ronny]

Out of curiousity, who did they have in the Music City?

..bowl projection answer man:

Here's 3 sites updated Dec. 1. Look for yourself...

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/12/1/5162488/bowls-game-projections-2013-predictions-ohio-state-fsu

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1869674-bcs-standings-2013-week-15-bcs-rankings-and-bowl-game-projections

[thf24]

One possible problem with your theory on Vandy falling to the BBVA... I read this article the other day that says Liberty has firm priority over BBVA this year because Liberty didn't get an SEC team last year. Even though it probably, ironically, works against Liberty's wishes, the SEC might use that to force Liberty to take Vandy.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/jerry-palm/24292346/liberty-bowl-to-get-sec-opponent-tba

However, I may be wrong and that may not carry any weight.

[BulldogBear]

Never quite understood the Houston projection. Why would AAC send one of their better bowl teams so far down the pecking order?

[Todd4State]

..bowl projection answer man:

Here's 3 sites updated Dec. 1. Look for yourself...

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/12/1/5162488/bowls-game-projections-2013-predictions-ohio-state-fsu

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1869674-bcs-standings-2013-week-15-bcs-rankings-and-bowl-game-projections

I wasn't sure if you were exagerrating or not.

[Todd4State]

One possible problem with your theory on Vandy falling to the BBVA... I read this article the other day that says Liberty has firm priority over BBVA this year because Liberty didn't get an SEC team last year. Even though it probably, ironically, works against Liberty's wishes, the SEC might use that to force Liberty to take Vandy.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/jerry-palm/24292346/liberty-bowl-to-get-sec-opponent-tba

However, I may be wrong and that may not carry any weight.

That may also mean that it's more likely that the SEC will allow them to pick who they really want.

[cubswillwinitonedaydawg]

Bleacher Report (although probably wrong with their projections) has us in the Liberty against Marshall, and the Bears against Arkansas St. in the BBVA. That would be great. I've already seen a few "better season, better bowl" comments from Bear fans. Would love to see us get a higher bowl and them get stuck with Birmingham again, even though I'm only 2 1/2 hours from B-ham.

[BeastMan]

@curm

You're right. When I looked at the American Conference standings I misread them as 5-7.

ETA- they should beat USF and get to 6. I coulda saved myself 5 mins of figuring out who got that bid if I would have read 5-6 and not 5-7.

[Big4Dawg]

http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2013/dec/02/kyle-veazeys-late-hits-potential-liberty-teams-mor/

Can anyone PM that article?

[Coach34]

Slive will not let an 8 win SEC team fall to the bottom bowl- looks bad for the conference. End of story. When the Gator Bowl takes Georgia, it seals our fate

We are Bourbon Bowl bound

[Dawgface]

That would be funny if the bears ended up in B'ham again. I'll take anything although the Liberty would be my 1st choice.

[BogeyGolfer]

Slive will not let an 8 win SEC team fall to the bottom bowl- looks bad for the conference. End of story. When the Gator Bowl takes Georgia, it seals our fate

We are Bourbon Bowl bound

Yep, Vandy will not fall below the Liberty....Legion Field here we come!

[Big4Dawg]

Slive will not let an 8 win SEC team fall to the bottom bowl- looks bad for the conference. End of story. When the Gator Bowl takes Georgia, it seals our fate

We are Bourbon Bowl bound

Bottom bowl=Liberty & Compass.

They share the 8th/9th pick. Liberty will probably get who they want because they didn't get an SEC team last year.

[deltadawg99]

I disagree on the Cotton and Chick-Fil-A selections just because I don't think the Cotton bowl would pass on having Texas vs Texas A&M.

I know A&M was there last year, I just don't see them passing up that opportunity. Just my opinion

[BeastMan]

Slive will not let an 8 win SEC team fall to the bottom bowl- looks bad for the conference. End of story. When the Gator Bowl takes Georgia, it seals our fate

We are Bourbon Bowl bound

You do understand the BBVA and Liberty share the 8/9 pick? The Liberty Bowl isn't "above" the BBVA. If the BBVA gets the 8th pick, they take Vandy and MSU would go to the lower 9th pick Liberty Bowl

ETA- It all comes down to what bowl the SEC office decides is the 8th pick and which is the 9th.

[Coach34]

You do understand the BBVA and Liberty share the 8/9 pick? The Liberty Bowl isn't "above" the BBVA. If the BBVA gets the 8th pick, they take Vandy and MSU would go to the lower 9th pick Liberty Bowl

ETA- It all comes down to what bowl the SEC office decides is the 8th pick and which is the 9th.

Mike Slive is not going to let the #7 team standings-wise from the SEC end up in the Bourbon Bowl. Sets a bad tone for the conference

[Quaoarsking]

Never quite understood the Houston projection. Why would AAC send one of their better bowl teams so far down the pecking order?

It makes more sense to send Rutgers to the Pinstripe Bowl in NYC and Houston to Birmingham instead of sending both more than 1000 miles away. They're both pretty small fanbases as it is.

[BeastMan]

Sports Illustrated just projected MSU to Liberty and Vandy to BBVA fwiw

[thf24]

Mike Slive is not going to let the #7 team standings-wise from the SEC end up in the Bourbon Bowl. Sets a bad tone for the conference

If it were any other team in the conference everyone would agree, but in this case, given the circumstances, I think it's very possible that Slive will decide that he'd rather have the team that won't get close to selling its initial allotment in the lowest profile bowl possible than preserve the integrity of the pecking order.

[BeastMan]

If it were any other team in the conference everyone would agree, but in this case, given the circumstances, I think it's very possible that Slive will decide that he'd rather have the team that won't get close to selling its initial allotment in the lowest profile bowl possible than preserve the integrity of the pecking order.

I completely agree. The thing folks don't understand is that it stills holds the integretity of the order if SEC pick #8 goes to BBVA and they pick Vandy. Pick #9 would be Liberty and MSU. Another note no one is recognizing is that the Liberty had Vandy 2 years ago so not only could the BBVA be a "higher bowl", it would be a new destination.


ETA- Here is the SI projection link http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-football/news/20131202/college-football-bowl-projections/

ETA #2- Paul Jones now says he thinks Liberty. The reason the BBVA would want Vandy is b/c it would be the highest profile SEC team they have ever had.

[msstate7]

I completely agree. The thing folks don't understand is that it stills holds the integretity of the order if SEC pick #8 goes to BBVA and they pick Vandy. Pick #9 would be Liberty and MSU. Another note no one is recognizing is that the Liberty had Vandy 2 years ago so not only could the BBVA be a "higher bowl", it would be a new destination.


ETA- Here is the SI projection link http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-football/news/20131202/college-football-bowl-projections/

Only problem I see with that is why would bbva pick vandy over us. Bbva knows we would sell much more tickets

[Coach34]

I'm going strictly on opinion- not inside info- just dont see it happening. Would be interesting to see it happen.

[MagicDawg]

Only problem I see with that is why would bbva pick vandy over us. Bbva knows we would sell much more tickets

I may be totally misunderstanding this, but it seems like it's Vandy's 8th win that sort of forces it to happen if Compass "gets" the 1st pick and Vandy is still available.
"Congrats Compass Bowl, you get the first pick this year... aaaaaand oh by the way, you have to take Vandy because they can't slide any further than your pick based on our selection rules. Congratulations! Next... Liberty Bowl... looks like you're left with State."

[Coach34]

Looks like Vandy is signing off on going to BHam because they want an out of state bowl game. If they were bitching about it, they wouldnt fall that far

[Political Hack]

can't argue with beastman's predictions. look pretty solid to me.

[Todd4State]

Looks like Vandy is signing off on going to BHam because they want an out of state bowl game. If they were bitching about it, they wouldnt fall that far

MSU > Vandy in the eyes of the SEC office.

[HunterDawg]

I may be totally misunderstanding this, but it seems like it's Vandy's 8th win that sort of forces it to happen if Compass "gets" the 1st pick and Vandy is still available.
"Congrats Compass Bowl, you get the first pick this year... aaaaaand oh by the way, you have to take Vandy because they can't slide any further than your pick based on our selection rules. Congratulations! Next... Liberty Bowl... looks like you're left with State."

Vandy can't put 25,000 in their own stadium. No bowl wants them. Bowls at this level have to sell tickets to break even. We have a history of travelling well to Memphis. It could happen.

I kinda remember, though, that the Liberty and Compass alternate 1st pick and last year it was the Compass. If Liberty picks first, don't know if Slive will let a bowl pick a team with 2 more losses. May be an unwritten rule, but he has always said 1 more loss was the rule. Can't skip over a team with 2 more wins.

It will be interesting, but there are good arguments for both. Gotta remember, too, that Vandy has been passed over a lot recently, including last year, I think.

One other point, if you go by the standings Vandy deserves the Music City, but they played there last year and they do nothing for Nashville money wise. But still, they are really being passed over for the Music City. Will Slive let them be passed over twice?

I think Coach is right. Vandy will get to choose. If they want the Liberty, they get it, but they may want the Compass and that would be fine with everybody.

[MagicDawg]

I don't want Vandy to get screwed, certainly not twice - but I remember when we were 7-4 and stayed home altogether. I'm sympathetic, but only so far.

Ah well. I'm really far more concerned with getting that 7th win than I am with the city we play the game in or who our opponent is. That is the real critical piece of this puzzle.

[HunterDawg]

I don't want Vandy to get screwed, certainly not twice - but I remember when we were 7-4 and stayed home altogether. I'm sympathetic, but only so far.

Ah well. I'm really far more concerned with getting that 7th win than I am with the city we play the game in or who our opponent is. That is the real critical piece of this puzzle.

But what if Vandy has the same idea? If the bowls are basically equal, they may take the one they think they have the best shot of winning. 9 wins would be huge for them.

And, I think no SEC team has ever lost to a CUSA team in the Liberty. They may not want to take the risk of being the first.

[MagicDawg]

It would be huge, and I appreciate the logic.

I'm going no matter where it is. I'm enjoying the week of cogitating on it.