14 Games Left. 8 Wins gets us in a Regional

[Tater]

Pretty simple. If we want to go to a regional, we gotta win our two midweeks (or even better if they get cancelled honestly) and then 6-6 in our remaining 12 SEC games. Tall task, but it sounds a lot easier when you put it this way. 12-18 and our RPI gets us in the field this year.

Not looking to turn this into a fire Lemonis/Foxhall thread. We've all let our thoughts be known on that. Right now it's nut cutting time. If you get in the tourney then anything can happen. We have the talent to compete with anyone. We just need to not give free bases so damn much and hit just a tiny bit more consistently.

Crazy to have this terrible of a year and have this simple of a path ahead of us.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Pretty simple. If we want to go to a regional, we gotta win our two midweeks (or even better if they get cancelled honestly) and then 6-6 in our remaining 12 SEC games. Tall task, but it sounds a lot easier when you put it this way. 12-18 and our RPI gets us in the field this year.

Not looking to turn this into a fire Lemonis/Foxhall thread. We've all let our thoughts be known on that. Right now it's nut cutting time. If you get in the tourney then anything can happen. We have the talent to compete with anyone. We just need to not give free bases so damn much and hit just a tiny bit more consistently.

Crazy to have this terrible of a year and have this simple of a path ahead of us.

It sounds so easy....and then I remember that 9 of our last 12 are against Tennessee, Arkansas, and LSU with 6 of those being on the road. It ain't happening. Our goal needs to be get 4, maybe 5, and try to sneak into Hoover.

[Coach34]

Interesting scheduling down the stretch-

Mississippi is 3-15 but finishes with Georgia, Mizzou, Auburn, and Bama...They could get as many as 8 wins if they get lucky.
Mizzou is 5-13- finishes with Fla, Miss, Georgia, and Auburn. Some wins there for them
Auburn is 7-11- SC, LSU, Mississippi, and Mizzou. Tough road
Georgia is 7-11- Miss, Tenn, Mizzou, LSU

At 6-12- We arent a shoo-in for the SEC Tourney just yet

[State82]

Our goal needs to be get 4, maybe 5, and try to sneak into Hoover.

Yes. This is the only realistic goal we can achieve at this point. Better plan on having to get 5 more in conference.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

The RPI is definitely on our side. Our schedule strength, and our Q1 and Q2 win/loss, put us in decent shape. We just need actual wins. I agree that 12-18 probably puts us in a Regional. But going 6-6 in the SEC is not going to be easy. It's doable, but it's a tall order. I'm afraid that the Sunday game against Auburn will come back to haunt us. An SEC record of 7-11 would look so much better than 6-12.

2022
26-30 record
106th RPI
41st schedule strength
9-21 conference record
17-9 nonconference record
174th nonconference RPI
275th nonconference schedule strength
12-26 in Q1 and Q2 games

2023
24-17 record
35th RPI
6th schedule strength
6-12 conference record
18-5 nonconference record
32nd nonconference RPI
71st nonconference schedule strength
14-14 in Q1 and Q2 games

[EdwardDrayton]

I’d like to believe.

I WANT to believe.

I don’t believe.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Look, nothing I have seen gives me any indication that our team can win 8 out of 14 of the games we have remaining.

Do I want us to win 8, yes.

We just do not have the arms to do it. They just clearly have not gotten with the program. Or our ?program? sucks. I know our coaches can coach. I know we have some talented players but check this.

Cade smith is the only arm I trust.

Our best hitter Hines absolutely refuses to take a pitch to the opposite field and gets K?d in about every do or die situation this entire season.

Our Capt is batting like .144 against SEC pitching, absolutely refuses to swing at a first pitch down blvd, and rolls over almost everything.

Positives, Slate is playing much better. Mershawn is an upgrade over 30 error Forsyth in every measurable way, and Ledbetter keeps doing his job. Larry has fielded well most of the year and gives you quality at bats. Dakota has come on now that he lays off of breaking pitches.

It just isn?t enough when a 9-3 lead in the fifth is 17ing not enough because our pitches only have 1 pitch and it doesn?t miss bats.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Look, nothing I have seen gives me any indication that our team can win 8 out of 14 of the games we have remaining.

Do I want us to win 8, yes.

We just do not have the arms to do it. They just clearly have not gotten with the program. Or our ?program? sucks. I know our coaches can coach. I know we have some talented players but check this.

Cade smith is the only arm I trust.

Our best hitter Hines absolutely refuses to take a pitch to the opposite field and gets K?d in about every do or die situation this entire season.

Our Capt is batting like .144 against SEC pitching, absolutely refuses to swing at a first pitch down blvd, and rolls over almost everything.

Positives, Slate is playing much better. Mershawn is an upgrade over 30 error Forsyth in every measurable way, and Ledbetter keeps doing his job. Larry has fielded well most of the year and gives you quality at bats. Dakota has come on now that he lays off of breaking pitches.

It just isn?t enough when a 9-3 lead in the fifth is 17ing not enough because our pitches only have 1 pitch and it doesn?t miss bats.

I agree that it’s the arms. Do we have the arms to go 6-6 in SEC play over the next 4 weekends? I’m not seeing it.

I agree that I like Mershon over Forsythe right now. I like Forsythe, but Mershon is simply playing better and providing some spark.

I’m not quitting. I want to see us make a regional, and win that regional. But it’s a tough road ahead. I think it comes down to pitching, or lack thereof.

[RockyDog]

4-8 at best

[Cooterpoot]

Lol
Our goal should be finding a new pitching coach. OR, if things really go south, a new staff. Time to get those feelers out.

[Pancho]

Baseball has a unique way of making a coach or and entire staff appear to have no clue. we see it clearly now.

[Cooterpoot]

Pretty simple. If we want to go to a regional, we gotta win our two midweeks (or even better if they get cancelled honestly) and then 6-6 in our remaining 12 SEC games. Tall task, but it sounds a lot easier when you put it this way. 12-18 and our RPI gets us in the field this year.

Not looking to turn this into a fire Lemonis/Foxhall thread. We've all let our thoughts be known on that. Right now it's nut cutting time. If you get in the tourney then anything can happen. We have the talent to compete with anyone. We just need to not give free bases so damn much and hit just a tiny bit more consistently.

Crazy to have this terrible of a year and have this simple of a path ahead of us.

Name all the schools from the SEC to get in a regional at 12-18. I'll help you...none. Not a single team ever.

[Quaoarsking]

Name all the schools from the SEC to get in a regional at 12-18. I'll help you...none. Not a single team ever.

Yeah but the Committee has never cared about consistency. They just put in whoever they want and make up a justification on the back end. If you track their justifications from year to year it's obvious that there is no established criteria and it's all "eye test" and vibes.

If we finish 12-18 and a top 30 RPI, I think they'll probably pick us. (Or maybe we'll go 14-16 and not make it - it's all random and abritrary!)

[KOdawg1]

Gotta win 13 and any chance of that happening ended last weekend

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Name all the schools from the SEC to get in a regional at 12-18. I'll help you...none. Not a single team ever.

In 2021, Bama got in a regional at 12-17. Last year, 12 wins didn’t make it, but their RPIs were in the low 40s. Your point is valid. Our hope would be that 12-18 would be an RPI in the 20s.

[msudawg1200]

Ain't happening captain

[Coach34]

In 2021, Bama got in a regional at 12-17. Last year, 12 wins didn’t make it, but their RPIs were in the low 40s. Your point is valid. Our hope would be that 12-18 would be an RPI in the 20s.

That's where we are right now that is different. 12-18 teams arent normally in the 20's in RPI. Still quite a few games left that will change things. Makes it worth watching unless we get swept this weekend. Then you can move on to talking about June plans for vacay

[Tater]

That's where we are right now that is different. 12-18 teams arent normally in the 20's in RPI. Still quite a few games left that will change things. Makes it worth watching unless we get swept this weekend. Then you can move on to talking about June plans for vacay

I mean Im going to Omaha regardless if Lemonis and Co show up. Short hop skip and a jump away of about 5 hr drive

[somebodyshotmypaw]

That's where we are right now that is different. 12-18 teams arent normally in the 20's in RPI. Still quite a few games left that will change things. Makes it worth watching unless we get swept this weekend. Then you can move on to talking about June plans for vacay

Exactly. It’s going to be interesting if we are 12-18 with an RPI of 26. The record says NO but the RPI says YES. It will be interesting for the committee.

[Homedawg]

Pretty simple. If we want to go to a regional, we gotta win our two midweeks (or even better if they get cancelled honestly) and then 6-6 in our remaining 12 SEC games. Tall task, but it sounds a lot easier when you put it this way. 12-18 and our RPI gets us in the field this year.

Not looking to turn this into a fire Lemonis/Foxhall thread. We've all let our thoughts be known on that. Right now it's nut cutting time. If you get in the tourney then anything can happen. We have the talent to compete with anyone. We just need to not give free bases so damn much and hit just a tiny bit more consistently.

Crazy to have this terrible of a year and have this simple of a path ahead of us.

12 won't get us in.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

12 won't get us in.

I think it might.

[Homedawg]

Look, nothing I have seen gives me any indication that our team can win 8 out of 14 of the games we have remaining.

Do I want us to win 8, yes.

We just do not have the arms to do it. They just clearly have not gotten with the program. Or our ?program? sucks. I know our coaches can coach. I know we have some talented players but check this.

Cade smith is the only arm I trust.

Our best hitter Hines absolutely refuses to take a pitch to the opposite field and gets K?d in about every do or die situation this entire season.

Our Capt is batting like .144 against SEC pitching, absolutely refuses to swing at a first pitch down blvd, and rolls over almost everything.

Positives, Slate is playing much better. Mershawn is an upgrade over 30 error Forsyth in every measurable way, and Ledbetter keeps doing his job. Larry has fielded well most of the year and gives you quality at bats. Dakota has come on now that he lays off of breaking pitches.

It just isn?t enough when a 9-3 lead in the fifth is 17ing not enough because our pitches only have 1 pitch and it doesn?t miss bats.

Just thought I'd point this out. Mershon bas a lower fielding percentage than lane. Is he better at the plate and should be playing? Probably. But the fact everyone thinks he's better defensively is well..... not accurate. He's a second baseman playing ss.

[Quaoarsking]

12 won't get us in.

There's no reason to act so confident. I have no idea whether or not we'll get in with 11, 12, 13, or 14 wins because the committee has no consistency from year to year. I think we're probably out at 11 and in at 12, but that's just a guess because the committee makes bizarre decisions every year. I remember them leaving out an ACC team (North Carolina I think?) one year with an RPI of 19 and winning conference record.

[schddog72]

Lol
Our goal should be finding a new pitching coach. OR, if things really go south, a new staff. Time to get those feelers out.

The problem with letting Lem stay and hiring just a new pitching coach is what decent pitching coach in his right mind would risk coming to Starkvegas and possibly being gone after one season? If Lem is allowed to stay another year, he's still a dead man walking if it really goes south (again) in 2024.

IMHO, if changes are to be made, then get out the broom and make it a clean sweep; make it a fresh start!!

[Coach34]

The problem with letting Lem stay and hiring just a new pitching coach is what decent pitching coach in his right mind would risk coming to Starkvegas and possibly being gone after one season? If Lem is allowed to stay another year, he's still a dead man walking if it really goes south (again) in 2024.

IMHO, if changes are to be made, then get out the broom and make it a clean sweep; make it a fresh start!!

A pitching coach making 90K per season coming to State to make 400K per season would make that jump in a second. Risk is less than the reward. Lots of those guys out there

[Homedawg]

There's no reason to act so confident. I have no idea whether or not we'll get in with 11, 12, 13, or 14 wins because the committee has no consistency from year to year. I think we're probably out at 11 and in at 12, but that's just a guess because the committee makes bizarre decisions every year. I remember them leaving out an ACC team (North Carolina I think?) one year with an RPI of 19 and winning conference record.

if we have 12 wins, at best we would be about 10th in the league. Sec won't get 10 teams in with that. JMO. Now if we went to the scc tourney finals maybe so. But this exercise was presented as a reg season event. Let's just get to 12, at this point that's still a big ask.

[Cooterpoot]

Our RPI alone won't get us in. The whole conference has that high RPI. We've got to win 13+ to get in. We're pissing in the wind anyway, we aren't getting to 12 games. I could see us getting swept 3 more times. In those three series, can't see more than one win either. Staff changes are on the horizon finally!

[Coach34]

D1 has 10 SEC teams in the field of 64 as of today. Still a month to go obviously

https://d1baseball.com/projections/d1baseball-field-of-64-projections-week-11/

SEC with 5 of the top 8 seeds

[parabrave]

Can we lock this thread now????

[Tater]

Can we lock this thread now????

It had died until you bumped it. It's simple. But our bullpen coaching didn't make it easy. Going 0-3 in games you score 11-7-8.

[EdwardDrayton]

Can we lock this thread now????

Nah. Just rebrand it as 'will we get 8 TOTAL conference wins'. ****

[State82]

SEC with 5 of the top 8 seeds

One of which we traditionally could have been in the running for. But oh no, not any longer.