Severe Weather Friday Round 2 - Fight

[starkvegasdawg]

Off the bat...this one doesn't look to park near the punch of last Friday even though there is still some forecast uncertainty. The core of this system will be further north so the best forcing and wind fields will be displaced to our north. However, the best moisture return will be down in our area noted by forecast mid 60's dew points. Wind shear will be good enough to support at some level of severe threat over MS...particularly the extreme NW part of the state where an enhanced risk resides with a slight risk covering the rest of the north and most of the central part of the state. Storm mode looks to be a mix of discrete supercells and linear. Timing is not nailed down yet but expect late afternoon into the overnight hours depending on your part of the state.
www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/MS_swody4_PROB.png?1679993467

[DownwardDawg]

Thanks man.

I'll keep an eye out on the Patreon site. The content on that site is extremely thorough and detailed. Y'all should all really consider hitting that link and subscribing. For a mere $5/month you get great information and can ask specific location questions on their message board. I'm glad I joined for sure.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks man.

I'll keep an eye out on the Patreon site. The content on that site is extremely thorough and detailed. Y'all should all really consider hitting that link and subscribing. For a mere $5/month you get great information and can ask specific location questions on their message board. I'm glad I joined for sure.

Mucho gracias. I can't go into any detail now, but a guy on our team has come up with what could revolutionize early warning for tornadoes in rural areas. It's a massively ambitious project, but if we can secure the means and permissions to do it...

[DownwardDawg]

Mucho gracias. I can't go into any detail now, but a guy on our team has come up with what could revolutionize early warning for tornadoes in rural areas. It's a massively ambitious project, but if we can secure the means and permissions to do it...

Man that would be fantastic!!

[Commercecomet24]

SVD you are the best man! You and James Spann.

[Dawg_Lover]

Mucho gracias. I can't go into any detail now, but a guy on our team has come up with what could revolutionize early warning for tornadoes in rural areas. It's a massively ambitious project, but if we can secure the means and permissions to do it...


Well, from one that resides in the sticks, that is music to my ears. Will keep my fingers crossed.

[RocketDawg]

Somewhat off topic for the upcoming system - but I know as the tornado approached Amory there was plenty of official NWS warning that likely saved many lives and injuries.

How much official NWS warning was there for Rolling Fork? By the time it got through there, just about everybody had to be aware what was coming. The reason I ask is that I was watching TWC and it appeared to build up quite quickly, then hold together for for quite a time.

[DownwardDawg]

Somewhat off topic for the upcoming system - but I know as the tornado approached Amory there was plenty of official NWS warning that likely saved many lives and injuries.

How much official NWS warning was there for Rolling Fork? By the time it got through there, just about everybody had to be aware what was coming. The reason I ask is that I was watching TWC and it appeared to build up quite quickly, then hold together for for quite a time.
Not sure but people on tv were saying they had 2 minutes notice. That's hard to believe unless these people just don't pay attention to the weather at all.

[starkvegasdawg]

As I was dropping south from Bolivar county I could tell when it was near Lake Providence the storm had some real potential. That's just 15 miles. I'm not sure when it went tornado warned. I think just before it hit Rolling Fork. That's the issue with these storms that move 60mph. It is on you before you know it. I covered that in my how to shelter video in that series on YouTube. People don't realize how fast these things cover distances when they're not beholden to roads. And people don't realize how close places are straight line. You then add in that even in the best of circumstances the radar images you're looking at are 3-5 minutes old and often times 8 or more. So say you live what takes you 15 miles or 20 minutes to drive on roads from where a tornado is on the ground moving 60mph. You think you have 15-20 minutes to take shelter or drive out of the path. That's your mindset. But straight line it's only 9 miles. So your 15 minute window is now 9 minutes. Then the radar image is 6 minutes old. Now your 15 minutes is 3 minutes. So by the time you grab your car keys and get your seatbelt buckled it's on top of you and too late.

[Dawg_Lover]

As I was dropping south from Bolivar county I could tell when it was near Lake Providence the storm had some real potential. That's just 15 miles. I'm not sure when it went tornado warned. I think just before it hit Rolling Fork. That's the issue with these storms that move 60mph. It is on you before you know it. I covered that in my how to shelter video in that series on YouTube. People don't realize how fast these things cover distances when they're not beholden to roads. And people don't realize how close places are straight line. You then add in that even in the best of circumstances the radar images you're looking at are 3-5 minutes old and often times 8 or more. So say you live what takes you 15 miles or 20 minutes to drive on roads from where a tornado is on the ground moving 60mph. You think you have 15-20 minutes to take shelter or drive out of the path. That's your mindset. But straight line it's only 9 miles. So your 15 minute window is now 9 minutes. Then the radar image is 6 minutes old. Now your 15 minutes is 3 minutes. So by the time you grab your car keys and get your seatbelt buckled it's on top of you and too late.

All excellent points for consideration. Remember the scaled mileage graphs at the bottom of printed maps, where maybe 1/4 inch equaled 10 miles? I wish that was included on the bottom of my downloaded weather radar. Of course, it would need to correct itself as you adjusted the size of the screen.

[dawgday166]

As I was dropping south from Bolivar county I could tell when it was near Lake Providence the storm had some real potential. That's just 15 miles. I'm not sure when it went tornado warned. I think just before it hit Rolling Fork. That's the issue with these storms that move 60mph. It is on you before you know it. I covered that in my how to shelter video in that series on YouTube. People don't realize how fast these things cover distances when they're not beholden to roads. And people don't realize how close places are straight line. You then add in that even in the best of circumstances the radar images you're looking at are 3-5 minutes old and often times 8 or more. So say you live what takes you 15 miles or 20 minutes to drive on roads from where a tornado is on the ground moving 60mph. You think you have 15-20 minutes to take shelter or drive out of the path. That's your mindset. But straight line it's only 9 miles. So your 15 minute window is now 9 minutes. Then the radar image is 6 minutes old. Now your 15 minutes is 3 minutes. So by the time you grab your car keys and get your seatbelt buckled it's on top of you and too late.

So when TV forecaster says it will hit you at ... say at 12:42 am ... does this mean it's really more like 12:36 instead?

I would think their SW model calculations would take into account all the variables you typed in your description above.

Appreciate it dude!

[starkvegasdawg]

So when TV forecaster says it will hit you at ... say at 12:42 am ... does this mean it's really more like 12:36 instead?

I would think their SW model calculations would take into account all the variables you typed in your description above.

Appreciate it dude!

Most of the time they'll only put those tracks up right after a scan update. But even then, most will say those are approximations. Storms speed up, slow down, and change direction. All can make a difference on when they arrive. But just for an example I pulled up my radar app on my phone and it was 7 minutes behind. I changed radars and it was 3 behind. So just those two at random had an average lag of 5 minutes. The reason for the lag is that one radar image you see is actually about 4 images stacked on each other. The radar makes a scan at different degrees. Each scan is called a tilt. The lowest angle, or tilt, 0.5 degrees. I'm drawing a blank at the others but it's done to give a look at much of the storm as possible. It takes time for the radar to make a scan, adjust up to the next tilt, make a scan, rinse and repeat through all four scans. Then it has to process that information and send it out to all the radar apps and software at news studios.

[dawgday166]

Most of the time they'll only put those tracks up right after a scan update. But even then, most will say those are approximations. Storms speed up, slow down, and change direction. All can make a difference on when they arrive. But just for an example I pulled up my radar app on my phone and it was 7 minutes behind. I changed radars and it was 3 behind. So just those two at random had an average lag of 5 minutes. The reason for the lag is that one radar image you see is actually about 4 images stacked on each other. The radar makes a scan at different degrees. Each scan is called a tilt. The lowest angle, or tilt, 0.5 degrees. I'm drawing a blank at the others but it's done to give a look at much of the storm as possible. It takes time for the radar to make a scan, adjust up to the next tilt, make a scan, rinse and repeat through all four scans. Then it has to process that information and send it out to all the radar apps and software at news studios.

Thanks for the detailed response man. It helps to have a better understanding of all that.

What's your gut telling you on how active this severe weather season will be?

ETA: The reason I'm asking is I just watched a one of these YouTube guys that was using GFS I think that had 2 more troughs like the one at the end of this week coming through back to back to back with 3rd one potentially being the worst. I know it's hard to predict it that far out tho. Just was curious on your thoughts if you looked that far ahead.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks for the detailed response man. It helps to have a better understanding of all that.

What's your gut telling you on how active this severe weather season will be?

ETA: The reason I'm asking is I just watched a one of these YouTube guys that was using GFS I think that had 2 more troughs like the one at the end of this week coming through back to back to back with 3rd one potentially being the worst. I know it's hard to predict it that far out tho. Just was curious on your thoughts if you looked that far ahead.

I've heard some guys saying it looks like it is going to be an active season and one saying there will be more tornado producing storms. Fact remains, they don't know. Right now we are in an active pattern. We have this Friday with a severe threat and then early next week another one is looking possible, but out past 5-7 days it's all a roll of the dice. Anybody using just the GFS to predict long range weather activity is just somebody looking for attention in my opinion.

[starkvegasdawg]

The SPC has expanded the enhanced risk to cover more of north MS as some of the models continue to show an uptick in intensity further south and east than earlier runs. The SPC mentions potentially intense and widespread severe weather possible Friday afternoon and night. Storm mode looks to favor and mixture of discrete supercells and linear convection. I still don't think things are looking like a repeat of last Friday, but things are trending stronger. That said, the synoptic set up is different with this storm than last week which is what I think will keep it from being not quite as intense as last week. I'm hoping I'm right about this.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/MS_swody3.png?1680075604

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/MS_swody3_PROB.png?1680075724

[ArrowDawg]

I've heard some guys saying it looks like it is going to be an active season and one saying there will be more tornado producing storms. Fact remains, they don't know. Right now we are in an active pattern. We have this Friday with a severe threat and then early next week another one is looking possible, but out past 5-7 days it's all a roll of the dice. Anybody using just the GFS to predict long range weather activity is just somebody looking for attention in my opinion.

It's not helpful when famed people like Reed Timmer are blabbing on about this spring looking like another 2011.

[starkvegasdawg]

It's not helpful when famed people like Reed Timmer are blabbing on about this spring looking like another 2011.

And in a wonderful twist he was in twitter today talking down to people posting about the severe event early next week.

I respect Reed for breaking off chases to help in search and rescue. He's done that for years. But he is the biggest hype machine out there. His version of Miracle on 34th St is every time he mentions the word outbreak an angel gets it's wings.

[TNDawg35]

Looks like we Fixen to get punched in the mouth Fri afternoon up here in West TN

[Dawg_Lover]

That angel gets its wings.comment was funny. Thanks for the laugh.

And, agree on W TN, NW MS, & heard a little while ago maybe up into N MO & Iowa had a chance for severe storms.

But, sounded like when it does move through it will be like a race horse on speed.

[starkvegasdawg]

That angel gets its wings.comment was funny. Thanks for the laugh.

And, agree on W TN, NW MS, & heard a little while ago maybe up into N MO & Iowa had a chance for severe storms.

But, sounded like when it does move through it will be like a race horse on speed.

I think MO and IA are going to bear the brunt of this system. North MS is on the southern periphery of the severe weather.

[DownwardDawg]

Looks like we Fixen to get punched in the mouth Fri afternoon up here in West TN

Where ya at? I'm in Sumner county. Northeast of Nashville.

[Commercecomet24]

Y'all be safe up there. Looks like us folks down south might miss this one.

[Dawg_Lover]

Y'all be safe up there. Looks like us folks down south might miss this one.


I hope you knocked on wood after you said that. ☝️

[Dawg_Lover]

I think MO and IA are going to bear the brunt of this system. North MS is on the southern periphery of the severe weather.


Thanks, I hope NW MS gets to mostly sit this one out like CC & company.

[TNDawg35]

Where ya at? I'm in Sumner county. Northeast of Nashville.

North of Memphis in Titpon Co.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks, I hope NW MS gets to mostly sit this one out like CC & company.

I'll feel a lot more confident mid morning tomorrow in saying what I think will happen once the 12z HRRR comes in. That'll be close enough for it to cover the entire event.

[Commercecomet24]

I hope you knocked on wood after you said that. ☝️

Always, cause I've seen it change on a dime!

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC has upgraded a small area around Memphis to a tornado driven mod risk for tomorrow. Strong tornadoes are possible.

[Ranchdawg]

SPC has upgraded a small area around Memphis to a tornado driven mod risk for tomorrow. Strong tornadoes are possible.

Sorry to bother you and ask for specific locals. But my wife is driving from Collierville,Tn to central Ms Friday aprox lunchtime. She going to be ok? Or do I need to tell to leave earlier? She?s not the best driver.

Thanks for all you do!

[starkvegasdawg]

Sorry to bother you and ask for specific locals. But my wife is driving from Collierville,Tn to central Ms Friday aprox lunchtime. She going to be ok? Or do I need to tell to leave earlier? She?s not the best driver.

Thanks for all you do!

Should be fine. Storms look to approach the river late afternoon/evening last I looked. If she leaves at lunch she should make her destination fine. I'll take another look around 9:00 or so when the next 48 hour HRRR comes in.

[ArrowDawg]

And in a wonderful twist he was in twitter today talking down to people posting about the severe event early next week.

I respect Reed for breaking off chases to help in search and rescue. He's done that for years. But he is the biggest hype machine out there. His version of Miracle on 34th St is every time he mentions the word outbreak an angel gets it's wings.

I saw that, and I almost called him out on it but didn't. You're right, he does do a lot of good in the aftermath of these storms, but his comments about next week were quite hypocritical after some of the stuff he's put out there.

I greatly respect you svd for trying to avoid hyping things up. I know you were worried about that last week, but it was one of those setups that called for more attention than usual. As it turns out, rightfully so.

[starkvegasdawg]

I saw that, and I almost called him out on it but didn't. You're right, he does do a lot of good in the aftermath of these storms, but his comments about next week were quite hypocritical after some of the stuff he's put out there.

I greatly respect you svd for trying to avoid hyping things up. I know you were worried about that last week, but it was one of those setups that called for more attention than usual. As it turns out, rightfully so.

Yeah, last Friday was just one of those I had a bad feeling about. But that's one thing I really like about our chase team. The posts our social media guy makes just sticks to the facts and he doesn't try to over or under hype events.