Life Threatening Severe Event Possible Today

[starkvegasdawg]

If this ends up busting and I look like a royal idiot for that thread title I will face the music for all the insults and ridicule you care to throw at me. I'm a big boy and can take it. But the latest wording from the SPC is scary. Potential tornado outbreak is looking likely late this afternoon and evening. The graphics haven't changed much so not posting them now. If an upgrade to a high risk happens I will update with it. This outbreak, if it happens, could have multiple strong to violent tornadoes. There is one model solution that is not so bullish, but SPC is saying the more extreme solution seems more plausible at this time. Per the 06Z HRRR, supercells will begin forming along the river around 5:00-6:00pm and move NE. These will quickly go severe and most likely tornadic. Once this event starts it is going to be with us until after midnight.
If the HRRR verifies, then particularly the NW portions of the state will see multiple tornadoes, some of which could be strong and a couple that could be violent if any discrete cells can get out on their own and sustain themselves. Anybody that has interests west of I-55 and north of I-20 need to pay very close attention today. Do not dismiss any warnings.

Let's all hope in 24 hours I'm here with all of you telling me I'm a drama queen over hyping events. I'll take that gladly over what has the potential to happen today.

I know a couple of us from the team will be out actively chasing this event so let us be the idiots today being out in this weather.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

[Dawg_Lover]

Thanks, SVD, for always looking out for us, trying to keep us safe. It seems we can hardly go a week lately without severe weather threats.

After just now reading about the dangers of living in Alaska, it made me put things in perspective. After all, they have snow, ice, isolation. earthquakes, people-eating grizzly bears, and mean moose that like nothing better than stomping the living daylights out of you. It made me stop and think, in comparison I will take the heat, humidity, fire ants, monster mosquitoes, aggravating armadillos, and even tornadoes any day.

Do not get me wrong. Alaska is a fascinating, beautiful state. Just not a place I want to live. I will stay right where I am, tornadoes, and all.

Again, thanks SVD for all you do.

[99jc]

If this ends up busting and I look like a royal idiot for that thread title I will face the music for all the insults and ridicule you care to throw at me. I'm a big boy and can take it. But the latest wording from the SPC is scary. Potential tornado outbreak is looking likely late this afternoon and evening. The graphics haven't changed much so not posting them now. If an upgrade to a high risk happens I will update with it. This outbreak, if it happens, could have multiple strong to violent tornadoes. There is one model solution that is not so bullish, but SPC is saying the more extreme solution seems more plausible at this time. Per the 06Z HRRR, supercells will begin forming along the river around 5:00-6:00pm and move NE. These will quickly go severe and most likely tornadic. Once this event starts it is going to be with us until after midnight.
If the HRRR verifies, then particularly the NW portions of the state will see multiple tornadoes, some of which could be strong and a couple that could be violent if any discrete cells can get out on their own and sustain themselves. Anybody that has interests west of I-55 and north of I-20 need to pay very close attention today. Do not dismiss any warnings.

Let's all hope in 24 hours I'm here with all of you telling me I'm a drama queen over hyping events. I'll take that gladly over what has the potential to happen today.

I know a couple of us from the team will be out actively chasing this event so let us be the idiots today being out in this weather.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

me thinks this is going to get very nasty. especially Jackson to Memphis.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks, SVD! Y'all stay safe! Thanks for the info!

[SaintDawg]

There seems to be some uncertainty around this system from other weather outlets. I understand the possible overhype because you want folks to pay attention to it.

[gtowndawg]

Would you include Memphis in the threat? I have a daughter staying late for softball practice and would prefer she get home quick if Memphis is included. Thanks for the updates as always.

[DownwardDawg]

Would you include Memphis in the threat? I have a daughter staying late for softball practice and would prefer she get home quick if Memphis is included. Thanks for the updates as always.

I'm not a weather dude, but Memphis looks to be in the crosshairs to me.
I think my family and home on 84 in Covington county should be fine in this one. Worried about us in Sumner county Tennessee in the middle of the night.

Thanks Stark for all the threads brother. Stay safe out there but get us some good videos!!!

[Commercecomet24]

I'm not a weather dude, but Memphis looks to be in the crosshairs to me.
I think my family and home on 84 in Covington county should be fine in this one. Worried about us in Sumner county Tennessee in the middle of the night.

Thanks Stark for all the threads brother. Stay safe out there but get us some good videos!!!

Stay safe !

[DownwardDawg]

Stay safe !

You too man!!!
All my brothers and sisters in Mississippi stay safe!!!

[Commercecomet24]

You too man!!!
All my brothers and sisters in Mississippi stay safe!!!

Amen!

[Tater]

I'm not a weather dude, but Memphis looks to be in the crosshairs to me.
I think my family and home on 84 in Covington county should be fine in this one. Worried about us in Sumner county Tennessee in the middle of the night.

Thanks Stark for all the threads brother. Stay safe out there but get us some good videos!!!

I'm supposed to drive down 55 today / night to go to Starkville for the weekend. Be going through Memphis about 8-9. Should I adjust and aim to leave later?

Or aim to go through Jackson, TN and come down 45 instead?

[starkvegasdawg]

Try to answer all questions here.

Latest trend is for more of a squall line and less discrete cells. If that plays out then tornado threat will be slightly reduced.

Memphis will definitely be in the middle of things. Timing for Memphis looks to be 6:00-9:00. I hate that wide range but with the current disagreement on the models it's hard to get more specific. If it is mainly linear the later time will be more accurate. If we still get a discrete mode then the earlier time.

The Starkville area looks to be 9:00-midnight with the same caveat as Memphis.

[Commercecomet24]

Try to answer all questions here.

Latest trend is for more of a squall line and less discrete cells. If that plays out then tornado threat will be slightly reduced.

Memphis will definitely be in the middle of things. Timing for Memphis looks to be 6:00-9:00. I hate that wide range but with the current disagreement on the models it's hard to get more specific. If it is mainly linear the later time will be more accurate. If we still get a discrete mode then the earlier time.

The Starkville area looks to be 9:00-midnight with the same caveat as Memphis.

How you think it's looking for us down here in Jones County? Thanks for all you do!

[Commercecomet24]

I'm supposed to drive down 55 today / night to go to Starkville for the weekend. Be going through Memphis about 8-9. Should I adjust and aim to leave later?

Or aim to go through Jackson, TN and come down 45 instead?

Safe travels!

[starkvegasdawg]

How you think it's looking for us down here in Jones County? Thanks for all you do!

The further south the better as it looks now. Definitely still a severe threat, though.

[Commercecomet24]

The further south the better as it looks now. Definitely still a severe threat, though.

Thanks, appreciate all you do! And be safe out there today!

[basedog]

Thanks, appreciate all you do! And be safe out there today!

Just wear your catchers gear and you will be fine* LOL

[Commercecomet24]

Just wear your catchers gear and you will be fine* LOL

LOL! I've got a utility room full of catchers gear, helmets, bats, balls! I could start my own play it again sports!

[Tater]

Try to answer all questions here.

Latest trend is for more of a squall line and less discrete cells. If that plays out then tornado threat will be slightly reduced.

Memphis will definitely be in the middle of things. Timing for Memphis looks to be 6:00-9:00. I hate that wide range but with the current disagreement on the models it's hard to get more specific. If it is mainly linear the later time will be more accurate. If we still get a discrete mode then the earlier time.

The Starkville area looks to be 9:00-midnight with the same caveat as Memphis.

Thanks! Definitely a reason to take my time then lol.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm now headed west to stage somewhere in the delta. Probably Leland or Indianola. Right now just a pretty day but it won't last. SPC at least toying with a high risk upgrade as models are trending back towards a more discrete solution. If you see me come say or flip me off. I'm good with either.
Gentle reminder: once things get cooking I plan on live streaming on our patreon site.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsAQVDmWAAEkrkJ?format=jpg&name=large

[viverlibre]

I'm now headed west to stage somewhere in the delta. Probably Leland or Indianola. Right now just a pretty day but it won't last. SPC at least toying with a high risk upgrade as models are trending back towards a more discrete solution. If you see me come say or flip me off. I'm good with either.
Gentle reminder: once things get cooking I plan on live streaming on our patreon site.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsAQVDmWAAEkrkJ?format=jpg&name=large

Mighty bold strategy relying on a Dodge to get from Starkville to the Delta and back without breaking down. :cool:

[starkvegasdawg]

Mighty bold strategy relying on a Dodge to get from Starkville to the Delta and back without breaking down. :cool:

I chase tornadoes. I'm used to taking risks.

[Tater]

Mighty bold strategy relying on a Dodge to get from Starkville to the Delta and back without breaking down. :cool:


Them Rams are solid. My 22' 1500 making this drive smooth and easy so far.

[starkvegasdawg]

Them Rams are solid. My 22' 1500 making this drive smooth and easy so far.

Mine is an 04 2500 with 322,000 miles. But it's taken three direct hits and brought me through.

[Dawg_Lover]

Mine is an 04 2500 with 322,000 miles. But it's taken three direct hits and brought me through.


Wow, must be part Timex.

[starkvegasdawg]

Ok ladies and gentlemen. Storms now starting to develop down into LA and southern MS. These could be the beginnings of the discrete supercells and tornado event. SPC is considering the issuance of a PDS tornado watch as we get later into the afternoon. Prime tornado window is 5:00pm to midnight. I'm currently sitting in Leland waiting to see what develops.

[Tater]

Mine is an 04 2500 with 322,000 miles. But it's taken three direct hits and brought me through.

My father had a 03' he bought brand new that survived until 2019 when a certain dipshit sibling of mine totaled it when racing and running off the road. Had well over 200k miles. Great vehicles that take care of you if you take care of them. Brother walked away unscathed.

[MabenMaroon]

Appreciate your updates. The last look at the radar looks like you are well placed. Stay safe.

[parabrave]

Ok ladies and gentlemen. Storms now starting to develop down into LA and southern MS. These could be the beginnings of the discrete supercells and tornado event. SPC is considering the issuance of a PDS tornado watch as we get later into the afternoon. Prime tornado window is 5:00pm to midnight. I'm currently sitting in Leland waiting to see what develops.

You around Cleveland??

[Tater]

Thanks SVD for the Memphis window. I took the Jackson TN way and it's been much clearer. Heavy rain from St. Louis all the way down 55 was rough to drive in, but looks like 45 gonna be better than 55.

[SaintDawg]

Rolling Fork in the crosshairs now. Ooof

[parabrave]

Big one headed toward Rolling Fork/ Weather guys following it right now/

[parabrave]

Wow its huge

[RocketDawg]

Rolling Fork in the crosshairs now. Ooof

Looks like it went right through Rolling Fork (never been there, so don't know how big it is). Large debris ball indicated.

[RocketDawg]

Wow its huge

TWC says 1 mile across. Not sure how they came up with that estimate. Regardless, it's a very strong tornado.

[parabrave]

Rolling Fork just got waxed/ Chasers are in the town and say there is alot of damage. If this thing stays together Wionna is in the path.

[parabrave]

TWC says 1 mile across. Not sure how they came up with that estimate. Regardless, it's a very strong tornado.

They got it on Video. Check your PM

[LC Dawg]

Footage coming out of the path looks bad. It being dark outside is even scarier. I hope it's only property damage.

[RocketDawg]

They got it on Video. Check your PM

Thanks.

[parabrave]

Footage coming out of the path looks bad. It being dark outside is even scarier. I hope it's only property damage.

A WC got a Pic of it about 100 yards from it as it was silhouetted by lightning as it entered Rolling Fork.

[parabrave]

If anyone gets any catfish in your yards you know where they came from.

[Tater]

Rolling Fork just got waxed/ Chasers are in the town and say there is alot of damage. If this thing stays together Wionna is in the path.

jesus. id have been 30 minutes north of winona right now if SVD hadn't said anything.

[RocketDawg]

jesus. id have been 30 minutes north of winona right now if SVD hadn't said anything.

Looks like it passed just south of Winona.

[starkvegasdawg]

Silver City is destroyed. What I've seen will haunt me forever. They need all the prayers you can get.

[Commercecomet24]

Silver City is destroyed. What I've seen will haunt me forever. They need all the prayers you can get.

Praying for all those affected! Stay safe, SVD!

[RocketDawg]

Silver City is destroyed. What I've seen will haunt me forever. They need all the prayers you can get.

Any word on injuries or worse?

[starkvegasdawg]

Any word on injuries or worse?

News coming out will be heartbreaking

[Dawg_Lover]

News coming out will be heartbreaking


Just saw this article ?.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11900593/amp/Tornado-threat-30-MILLION-people-South-warned-brace-supercell-storms.html

[parabrave]

Amory in the crosshairs now and its a big one/