Severe Threat for Friday

[starkvegasdawg]

As expected, the SPC has introduced a severe threat for this Friday. Strong deep layer shear will be present and moisture looks to be sufficient to support severe weather. Still too early know specifics as to what type of storm mode and severe weather will be favored, but that will be ironed out in future updates. The GFS has also been consistent the last few days of an even more potent severe threat for that Sunday, too, but other models are in disagreement. Just something to watch.

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/MS_swody6_PROB.png?1679217187

[Pinto]

I swear this has become a stock photo and they just change the dates. Lol

Thanks for the updates and all your work.

[starkvegasdawg]

Risk for MS has stayed pretty much the same. Looking risk may be the most for central and south MS. An existing squall line should push into the state and could re-intensify as we get to the peak heating of the day. A few discrete supercells could also form out ahead of the main line

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/MS_swody5_PROB.png?1679302808

[starkvegasdawg]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/MS_swody4_PROB.png?1679389394

There is still a large model discrepancy regarding this system. The SPC summarizes it pretty well so I'll just let them give the details:
The most recent GFS shows an intense low-level jet over a large portion of LA and MS, with conditions favorable for supercells. CSU machine-learning probabilities have picked up on these favorable conditions and currently suggest a high probability of severe thunderstorms from northern LA across northern/central MS into Middle TN. However, recent guidance for the ECMWF and CMC does not match the intensity of the low-level jet from the GFS. Additionally, these models have shown more run-to-run consistency over the past few days. Severe thunderstorms are still possible across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast and Mid-South on Friday, but all of the factors mentioned above preclude introducing higher severeprobabilities with this outlook.

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