Lunardi Update

[MetEdDawg]

His update around 5:30 continues to have us as the first team not getting a bye and being in the first team in the play in game.

I really feel like a win vs Florida and we are in very very good shape. Would require a lot of chaos behind us to knock us out.

The bubble just isn't very strong right now. We haven't lost any bad games recently, but we have missed opportunities to solidify our position. I think winning either @Missouri or @Vandy would have locked us in.

[BeardoMSU]

Nice

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Beat Florida and we are in. Our tourney loss would be to Bama, so that would not hurt.

Lose to Florida and I give us a 40% chance of making it.

[KOdawg1]

Just have to take care of business Thursday

[Homedawg]

Beat Florida and we are in. Our tourney loss would be to Bama, so that would not hurt.

Lose to Florida and I give us a 40% chance of making it.

Lose to Fla and we are out. You aren't factoring in other teams winning and conference upsets. We have to beat Fla to have any shot!! And still not a given

[State82]

Lose to Florida and I give us a 40% chance of making it.

I would drop that percentage by, oh probably 40% or so if we lose.

[civildawg]

Yeah if we lose to Florida again, 0% chance

[msudawg1200]

Yeah if we lose to Florida again, 0% chance
And rightfully so. If we can't beat a barely .500 team on a neutral court with what we have at stake, then we don't deserve a bid.

[maroonmania]

And rightfully so. If we can't beat a barely .500 team on a neutral court with what we have at stake, then we don't deserve a bid.

Yea, I kind of got beat on yesterday for saying we really don't deserve a bid if we get beat by Florida but I'm not sure how else to feel if we finish 8-11 in the SEC. If we want the bid then we need to go take it this Thursday.

[basedog]

I’m calling it, we bear Florida.

[maroonmania]

I’m calling it, we bear Florida.

Yep, we are going to maul them. 😀

[R2Dawg]

Yep, we are going to maul them. 😀

We gonna win and go to dance.

Cam comes out with the fro and does damage.

[MetEdDawg]

Charleston wins their conference tournament and Oral Roberts up huge in theirs.

That's good for us. That's two bubble teams winning their conference tournaments and securing auto bids.

[Captain Falcon]

I am not ruling out that we get in even with a loss tomorrow. I think some are underestimating how little the committee has shown to care about conference tournaments in recent years. If we are in now, which most experts believe to be the case, then it stands to reason that barring a bunch of craziness in other tournaments, we still have a decent chance of getting in.

That being said, you feel a whole lot more comfortable about it if you beat Florida, so maybe let?s do that.

[Johnson85]

I am not ruling out that we get in even with a loss tomorrow. I think some are underestimating how little the committee has shown to care about conference tournaments in recent years. If we are in now, which most experts believe to be the case, then it stands to reason that barring a bunch of craziness in other tournaments, we still have a decent chance of getting in.

That being said, you feel a whole lot more comfortable about it if you beat Florida, so maybe let?s do that.

I feel like the Committee has more or less always ignored conference tournament results. People point to conference tournament results to explain committee decisions, but when I paid attention, it seemed pretty clear they didn't put much, if any, stock in them.

[msstate7]

State -3 tomorrow

[Goldendawg]

If we lose to FL, we will be 8 - 11 against our conference foes with 5 of the wins against OM, SC, and LSU. We need to win tomorrow.

[KOdawg1]

A win tomorrow will get us in.

[bullygrowl]

We are just trying to improve our seeding in the SEC tourny. We are already in. One component we are not used to having on our bubble resume is 2 quad 1 wins out of conference. That is a big factor the committee looks at and the wins over Marquette and TCU put us over the hump this year. "Conference record" has zero bearing for the selection process. I just want to beat UF to stay off the play in game.

[PGHBulldogBG]

I have mixed feelings on how the committee looks at conference tournaments. I feel like they don’t put much emphasis on it, but because we are legit right on the inside of the bubble, we have to beat Florida. I really think as long as we do that we make the play in game. What will be interesting is to see if a team like Wisconsin or Ok State were to make the conference tournament title game but lose how that will be treated. It certainly didn’t help aTm last year, so that would be messed up if they awarded it to other teams right now outside the bubble

[MetEdDawg]

The committee wants teams in the NCAA Tournament that can beat good teams. Conference tournament games are built on luck of the draw and chance in a lot of ways which is why a win against an average opponent like Florida or some of these other 1st/2nd round conference games don't move the tournament projection needle much.

The only way I think a conference tournament helps a bubble team is if they find a way to beat some good teams.

If it ended today we would be on the right side of the bubble. Beating Florida doesn't move us up more so that it validates where we currently are. Beating Bama on Friday would be a different story. That's a move up type of game.

Replacing us in the pecking order would require a team to show they can beat good teams. So the folks projected behind us need us to lose AND they need to prove they can beat a good team or two.

[msudawg1200]

Wisconsin goes down. They should be done.

[RLM38654]

Wisconsin goes down. They should be done.

Bye Bye Wisky. Lunardi never put out an updated bracket today, but on the bottom line ticker on ESPN, State isn't showing in the last 4 in. Wonder what that's all about.

[chef dixon]

Lose to Fla and we are out. You aren't factoring in other teams winning and conference upsets. We have to beat Fla to have any shot!! And still not a given

Why so down on this team? Weren't you saying all year no shot to make the dance? We are in pretty good position. Better than you are suggesting.

[Quaoarsking]

Bye Bye Wisky. Lunardi never put out an updated bracket today, but on the bottom line ticker on ESPN, State isn't showing in the last 4 in. Wonder what that's all about.

Who are the 4? Did someone from the "Last 4 Byes" fall down into there and we move up to take their spot?

According to Lunardi's official bracket from late last night, the Last 4 In are Mississippi State, Utah State, Rutgers, and Nevada.

[Homedawg]

Why so down on this team? Weren't you saying all year no shot to make the dance? We are in pretty good position. Better than you are suggesting.

Im not being down at all!! I love this team and how hard they play. Im shocked they are at this point to be honest. You're being defensive. Im just stating a point that if we lose tomorrow we are out. Maybe not fact. My post was about here we are today/ tomorrow. That's all. btw, you can go and read the other stuff I've read about Jan's and team.

[Quaoarsking]

For the record I agree we are very likely out if we lose tomorrow, and if we instead lose on Friday to Alabama we're going to be sweating it all weekend.

[Homedawg]

For the record I agree we are very likely out if we lose tomorrow, and if we instead lose on Friday to Alabama we're going to be sweating it all weekend.

For sure. Only way to think we are I is to win 2.

[PGHBulldogBG]

We have to be careful of teams like Villanova and UNC. They have the talent to win their conference tournaments and steal a bid or two

[RLM38654]

Who are the 4? Did someone from the "Last 4 Byes" fall down into there and we move up to take their spot?

According to Lunardi's official bracket from late last night, the Last 4 In are Mississippi State, Utah State, Rutgers, and Nevada.

Penn State, Utah State, Rutgers, Nevada

[RLM38654]

VA Tech getting housed by the wolfpack. NC State probably in now.

[bullygrowl]

Then he swapped Penn St and MSU with neither playing today and took us off play in. He must have gotten some intel. Like I said, we are already in and would have to be passed by 5 or 6 teams.

[Cloak]

Then he swapped Penn St and MSU with neither playing today and took us off play in. He must have gotten some intel. Like I said, we are already in and would have to be passed by 5 or 6 teams.

Here's the new update - we've moved up.

ON THE BUBBLE
LAST FOUR BYES
NC State
Boise St.
Pittsburgh
Mississippi St.

LAST FOUR IN
Penn State
Rutgers
Oklahoma St.
Utah State

FIRST FOUR OUT
Arizona St.
Nevada
North Carolina
Wisconsin

NEXT FOUR OUT
Michigan
Charleston
Clemson
Oregon