Woof. Mens NET drops to 44

[MetEdDawg]

I think not getting to that +10 margin of victory threshold the NET incorporates in a home Quad 4 game might have gotten us some.

That's a rough drop for us. I'll be interested to see how Lunardi takes that into account the next time he provides an update.

We are still a 20 win team with the chance to push that to 21 and have a .500 conference record. Need to win Saturday.

[msstate7]

And UNC right on us at 45th. They host Duke Saturday, so I could see them passing us with a Q1 win over Duke.

[msstate7]

Jans had the lead at 10 last night, and brought in walk ons. SC immediately got 4 pts on that possession. That was a mistake imo

[msstate7]

We might could get lucky getting in with a loss Saturday, but I doubt it. I think it's win or NIT

[msugolf]

I think not getting to that +10 margin of victory threshold the NET incorporates in a home Quad 4 game might have gotten us some.

That's a rough drop for us. I'll be interested to see how Lunardi takes that into account the next time he provides an update.

We are still a 20 win team with the chance to push that to 21 and have a .500 conference record. Need to win Saturday.

The 10 point margin metric is one of the dumbest analytics ever created/used

[StarkVegasSteve]

The 10 point margin metric is one of the dumbest analytics ever created/used

That is why they do not use it anymore. They stopped using that in 2020

[smootness]

That drop won't really have an effect. If we had dropped to mid-50s maybe, but a 4 point drop doesn't change anything.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Think about how much the NET would have dropped if we had LOST! You play the games you have on the schedule. We can't help that South Carolina had such a low RPI and NET. You have to win, which we did, and move on to the next one. It's time to get after Vandy's butt. That would be a good win on the road.

[MaroonFlounder]

Many of you are assuming that State will be one and done in the SEC tournament.

Just a reminder that no team wants to face our defense, which means a chance to win any game.

[trob115]

10 point metric is not used in NET anymore. A 1 pt win counts the same as a 10pt win.

[Quaoarsking]

10 point metric is not used in NET anymore. A 1 pt win counts the same as a 10pt win.

I don't think this is exactly right. From NCAA.com in December 2022:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2022-12-05/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained

"The 2021-22 men's basketball season marks the fourth season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams. In May 2020, the NCAA announced there will be changes made to the NCAA Evaluation Tool to increase accuracy and simplify it by reducing a five-component metric to just two.

The remaining factors include the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played. For example, a given efficiency value (net points per 100 possessions) against stronger opposition rates higher than the same efficiency against lesser opponents and having a certain efficiency on the road rates higher than the same efficiency at home."

So a larger win will be better for your efficiency rating than a smaller one, it's just not as explicit as it used to be.

[Quaoarsking]

I hate how the formula isn't easily available for anyone to calculate and check on our own though. Just doing that would calm a lot of concerns about it.

[LC Dawg]

Auburn's net is currently 37 and they most likely lose to Bama tonight. I'm curious to see how far they drop or if they even drop. My guess is that they don't drop or possibly move up. I think A&M moved up after losing to us but not sure.
It definitely would be good if the formula was available to the public and especially to bubble teams so they have a better idea of what they have to do. I know most coaches will say "just win" but they want to know if they have to win or not.

[Captain Falcon]

NET is an important piece of the puzzle but it?s not the only piece. There are teams with way worse NET?s than us that are also on the bubble, and teams with similar NET?s that are considered locks.

I definitely lean toward we need a win Saturday. A Q2 loss would put us right at the cut line going into conference tourneys, which is a very dangerous place to be. We might still get in but your chances are 50/50 at that point. On the other hand, win on Saturday and I think we are safe.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Auburn's net is currently 37 and they most likely lose to Bama tonight. I'm curious to see how far they drop or if they even drop. My guess is that they don't drop or possibly move up. I think A&M moved up after losing to us but not sure.
It definitely would be good if the formula was available to the public and especially to bubble teams so they have a better idea of what they have to do. I know most coaches will say "just win" but they want to know if they have to win or not.

Auburn loses tonight and I would imagine we jump them and they fall to Last 4 In.

[RLM38654]

I hate how the formula isn't easily available for anyone to calculate and check on our own though. Just doing that would calm a lot of concerns about it.

Don't know the exact formula, but it is accurate for ranking teams. It's in line with Kenpom.com, which is in line with the actual betting lines that Las Vegas has. SOS doesn't lower it either, if they beat the team like they are supposed to. If State won by 10, net probably drops to 42, win by 16(which was the line) stays at #39, win by 20-25 move up to #38 and 40+ win, they probably move up 4 or 5 spots.

[sleepy dawg]

I hate how the formula isn't easily available for anyone to calculate and check on our own though. Just doing that would calm a lot of concerns about it.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds72JOCWwAUvPIK?format=jpg&name=900x900

This is how it's done. It's calculable. I think the only difference now is that they dropped the 10 point limit.

[Quaoarsking]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds72JOCWwAUvPIK?format=jpg&name=900x900

This is how it's done. It's calculable. I think the only difference now is that they dropped the 10 point limit.

I'm looking for the exact formula, not just a vague description of it. I want to calculate NET in Excel like I used to with RPI in order to double check WarrenNolan and the NCAA.

"Team Value Index" needs to be more transparent

[PMDawg]

Many of you are assuming that State will be one and done in the SEC tournament.

Just a reminder that no team wants to face our defense, which means a chance to win any game.

We beat Vandy, we may end up playing them in round 1 of the tournament. They're playing well right now. We lose to Vandy, we could drop all the way to 11th, which puts us in essentially a play-in game vs. LSU or SC. A win against either of them does us absolutely no good. In that scenario, we probably need to win 2 games. We would play the 6-seed if we end up in the 11/14 game. There are a ton of teams that could end up 6th through 11th at this point. Just saying, relying on a win in the SECT to get us in is definitely no gimme. We need to beat Vandy, but winning on that stupid court is always tough.

ETA: Wins against Drake, Georgia, and Florida would have us as locks pushing for a 4 to 6 seed right about now.

[MaroonFlounder]

We beat Vandy, we may end up playing them in round 1 of the tournament. They're playing well right now. We lose to Vandy, we could drop all the way to 11th, which puts us in essentially a play-in game vs. LSU or SC. A win against either of them does us absolutely no good. In that scenario, we probably need to win 2 games. We would play the 6-seed if we end up in the 11/14 game. There are a ton of teams that could end up 6th through 11th at this point. Just saying, relying on a win in the SECT to get us in is definitely no gimme. We need to beat Vandy, but winning on that stupid court is always tough.

ETA: Wins against Drake, Georgia, and Florida would have us as locks pushing for a 4 to 6 seed right about now.

Yep. Vandy does have a huge home-court advantage. Having to coach from behind the goals is ridiculous, and they set that up on purpose.

The FLORIDA game is inexcusable. I know we were still figuring some things out, but to lose by 2 pts on your home court to an average to below average team.

[StarkVegasSteve]

We beat Vandy, we may end up playing them in round 1 of the tournament. They're playing well right now. We lose to Vandy, we could drop all the way to 11th, which puts us in essentially a play-in game vs. LSU or SC. A win against either of them does us absolutely no good. In that scenario, we probably need to win 2 games. We would play the 6-seed if we end up in the 11/14 game. There are a ton of teams that could end up 6th through 11th at this point. Just saying, relying on a win in the SECT to get us in is definitely no gimme. We need to beat Vandy, but winning on that stupid court is always tough.

ETA: Wins against Drake, Georgia, and Florida would have us as locks pushing for a 4 to 6 seed right about now.

We cannot drop to 11th. UGA clinched the 11 seed last night with their loss.

[R2Dawg]

For us to drop is stupid. That tells you the NET formula ain't right. We won against a team that Bama had to have OT to beat. We pass the eye test and many other tests. We are a NCAAT team, plain and simple and anyone that watches basketball says so. They also go on to say no top team wants to face us. One even said us at a 10 or 11 ain't right. We are more like a 5 seed talent and team performance wise. I tend to agree.

Our oneness that everyone plays with is amazing. Everyone seems to be on the same page. The first half last night was as good on O moving the ball as I've seen from anyone all year.

We should firmly be in tourney at this point.

[sleepy dawg]

I'm looking for the exact formula, not just a vague description of it. I want to calculate NET in Excel like I used to with RPI in order to double check WarrenNolan and the NCAA.

"Team Value Index" needs to be more transparent

I guess you're right... I emailed warren Nolan to see if he could help out. I doubt he does, but I've had luck in the past emailing other types of sites with questions.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Maybe with our new Hump renovations we can eliminate the coach from the floor altogether and have them sit 12 rows up to give the old fans that do not cheer closer seats to the floor.

[PMDawg]

We cannot drop to 11th. UGA clinched the 11 seed last night with their loss.

Good to know. I just glanced at the standings. Any way it goes, we are going to be playing someone like Vandy, Auburn, or Arkansas for our tournament life (potentially) if we lose at Vandy. We're in a better spot than we expected going into the season, but it's still fairly dangerous.

[klong-dog]

And a good chance to play Vandy again in the first game of SEC tourney. Against Vandy in Nashville twice in as many days.

[PMDawg]

And a good chance to play Vandy again in the first game of SEC tourney. Against Vandy in Nashville twice in as many days.

Yep.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Good to know. I just glanced at the standings. Any way it goes, we are going to be playing someone like Vandy, Auburn, or Arkansas for our tournament life (potentially) if we lose at Vandy. We're in a better spot than we expected going into the season, but it's still fairly dangerous.

If we lose Saturday then our outlook is very simple. SURVIVE AND ADVANCE.