Bubble Watch

[RLM38654]

After the win against ATM, I figured State would be more in according to Lunardi and Palm. I thought beating ATM and Carolina would be enough but starting not to think that way. I don't understand why Palm has both WVU and OK State ahead of MSU. Both those teams play tonight WVU @ Iowa State and OK State got Baylor at home. Need both of them to lose but my gut feeling is, they both win. Wisconsin and Penn State both lost yesterday which was huge. I'm thinking MSU may have to win out and win a game in the SEC Tournament to get out of the first four

[Cloak]

After the win against ATM, I figured State would be more in according to Lunardi and Palm. I thought beating ATM and Carolina would be enough but starting not to think that way. I don't understand why Palm has both WVU and OK State ahead of MSU. Both those teams play tonight WVU @ Iowa State and OK State got Baylor at home. Need both of them to lose but my gut feeling is, they both win. Wisconsin and Penn State both lost yesterday which was huge. I'm thinking MSU may have to win out and win a game in the SEC Tournament to get out of the first four

Where are you seeing Lunardi's updated bracket? I only see the old update from before the A&M game

[Goldendawg]

After the win against ATM, I figured State would be more in according to Lunardi and Palm. I thought beating ATM and Carolina would be enough but starting not to think that way. I don't understand why Palm has both WVU and OK State ahead of MSU. Both those teams play tonight WVU @ Iowa State and OK State got Baylor at home. Need both of them to lose but my gut feeling is, they both win. Wisconsin and Penn State both lost yesterday which was huge. I'm thinking MSU may have to win out and win a game in the SEC Tournament to get out of the first four

SEC really getting 8 teams in scares me, especially if we are #8. ACC already complaining that they deserve more than 5 as they have beat up each other. I also want AU to continue to lose out including a game one loss in the SEC tourney. Hail State!

[Goldendawg]

Where are you seeing Lunardi's updated bracket? I only see the old update from before the A&M game

Palm update now has us 1st team listed of last four in. Like you, can't find Lombardi update. Must win out and win a game or two in SEC tourney to take care of our business.

[PGHBulldogBG]

That is correct. We need to win out and win the first SEC tournament game. If we do that we should make it. If not it’s a long shot

[Bubb Rubb]

After the win against ATM, I figured State would be more in according to Lunardi and Palm. I thought beating ATM and Carolina would be enough but starting not to think that way. I don't understand why Palm has both WVU and OK State ahead of MSU. Both those teams play tonight WVU @ Iowa State and OK State got Baylor at home. Need both of them to lose but my gut feeling is, they both win. Wisconsin and Penn State both lost yesterday which was huge. I'm thinking MSU may have to win out and win a game in the SEC Tournament to get out of the first four

There's no justification for Oklahoma State, but WVU's NET is 26. No question they should be ahead of us, and a lot of other teams. They'll probably be a 6 or 7 seed in the tourney.

[msstate7]

Baylor (-1.5) at ok st
WV at Iowa st (-5)

[Bubb Rubb]

That is correct. We need to win out and win the first SEC tournament game. If we do that we should make it. If not it’s a long shot

If we beat both Vandy and SC, we are 100% in. If we beat SC but lose to Vandy, we're still probably in, but need to go on a little run in the SEC tournament to be sure. Lose to SC and we can start planning for the NIT.

[smootness]

That is correct. We need to win out and win the first SEC tournament game. If we do that we should make it. If not it?s a long shot

This is not true. Win both this week and we are almost certainly in. Win 1 and we still have a shot. Win both and a game in the SECT and there?s basically no way we?re not in.

[BrunswickDawg]

If we beat both Vandy and SC, we are 100% in. If we beat SC but lose to Vandy, we're still probably in, but need to go on a little run in the SEC tournament to be sure. Lose to SC and we can start planning for the NIT.

We've heard that song many times over the years. We aren't 100% in with those wins, or even with those and a couple of SECT wins.

[KOdawg1]

That is correct. We need to win out and win the first SEC tournament game. If we do that we should make it. If not it?s a long shot

I don't see it that way at all. Beat South Carolina, and then win one more game. Whether that be Vandy or an SEC tournament game. That should get us in. Honestly, as long as we beat USC, we would still have a decent chance, no matter what else happens.

But if we beat USCe and Vandy, we're definitely in, no matter what happens in the SECT

[smootness]

We've heard that song many times over the years. We aren't 100% in with those wins, or even with those and a couple of SECT wins.

I don’t ever remember a year where we thought we were in and didn’t make it.

[Bubb Rubb]

We've heard that song many times over the years. We aren't 100% in with those wins, or even with those and a couple of SECT wins.

If we win both of our remaining games, our NET will be somewhere around 36. If we didn't make the tourney as an at large team with a NET of 36, it will make history as the highest rated NET to not get a bid.

Win out and we're in.

[BrunswickDawg]

I don’t ever remember a year where we thought we were in and didn’t make it.

2018 - we were tied for 7th in the SEC (9-9/22-11) Bama (8-10,19-15) and A&M (9-9, 20-12), who were both behind us in the SEC got in.
2012 - we were 6th in the SEC (8-8, 21-11)
2010 - we won the West (9-7, 23-11) Florida (9-7, 21-12) got in instead

All those are years real similar to this one from a record standpoint. '12 wasn't huge snub, but we had been ranked a good bit. '18 we really should have been in.

[RLM38654]

Where are you seeing Lunardi's updated bracket? I only see the old update from before the A&M game

He hasn't updated on the website but on Saturday night they showed it on TV his last four in were 43 WVU 44 Wisconsin 45 State and OK State 46. You would think State would be ahead of Wisconsin now.

[Goldendawg]

He hasn't updated on the website but on Saturday night they showed it on TV his last four in were 43 WVU 44 Wisconsin 45 State and OK State 46. You would think State would be ahead of Wisconsin now.

I don't trust SEC getting 8 teams. Win out. Hail State!

[StarkVegasSteve]

2018 - we were tied for 7th in the SEC (9-9/22-11) Bama (8-10,19-15) and A&M (9-9, 20-12), who were both behind us in the SEC got in.
2012 - we were 6th in the SEC (8-8, 21-11)
2010 - we won the West (9-7, 23-11) Florida (9-7, 21-12) got in instead

All those are years real similar to this one from a record standpoint. '12 wasn't huge snub, but we had been ranked a good bit. '18 we really should have been in.


18 we played a terrible non con schedule and then had some just plain bad losses. @OM, @Mizzou, @Vandy, and @LSU.

12 we just folded down the stretch. Lost at home to UGA, @LSU, and @Auburn in a 3 game stretch that really tanked the season. I'm pretty sure the UGA game was the game that Hood came in the locker room after the game and said he was transferring and we had to talk him into playing the rest of the year. He was never the same and we were never the same.

10 showed that winning the West meant ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, which most of us knew already. We had bad non con losses that year. at home to Rider, and @WKU. Couple that with some bad conference losses like Auburn at home and at Bama and most knew we had to win the SEC Tourney to make it.


The difference this year is we really only have the one bad loss. @UGA.

[MoreCowbell]

How Missouri is locked in as a 6th seed is weird if we are fighting for our lives to even make a play-in game

[Bubb Rubb]

18 we played a terrible non con schedule and then had some just plain bad losses. @OM, @Mizzou, @Vandy, and @LSU.

12 we just folded down the stretch. Lost at home to UGA, @LSU, and @Auburn in a 3 game stretch that really tanked the season. I'm pretty sure the UGA game was the game that Hood came in the locker room after the game and said he was transferring and we had to talk him into playing the rest of the year. He was never the same and we were never the same.

10 showed that winning the West meant ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, which most of us knew already. We had bad non con losses that year. at home to Rider, and @WKU. Couple that with some bad conference losses like Auburn at home and at Bama and most knew we had to win the SEC Tourney to make it.


The difference this year is we really only have the one bad loss. @UGA.

Florida's a bad loss too, IMO.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Florida's a bad loss too, IMO.

It is now because Castelton is out. But at the time it wasn't viewed as bad as it is now.

[StarkVegasSteve]

How Missouri is locked in as a 6th seed is weird if we are fighting for our lives to even make a play-in game

Five Q1 wins and they're perfect against Q2, Q3, and Q4. They also have an RPI of 34. We have 4 Q1 wins, but we have 2 losses in Q2 and a loss in Q3(Georgia). Our RPI is also a tad high at 57

[smootness]

2018 - we were tied for 7th in the SEC (9-9/22-11) Bama (8-10,19-15) and A&M (9-9, 20-12), who were both behind us in the SEC got in.
2012 - we were 6th in the SEC (8-8, 21-11)
2010 - we won the West (9-7, 23-11) Florida (9-7, 21-12) got in instead

All those are years real similar to this one from a record standpoint. '12 wasn't huge snub, but we had been ranked a good bit. '18 we really should have been in.

2010 we were on the bubble but projected out by most before the Tournament field was announced. Only 4 SEC teams made it in.

2012 we were right on the edge.

2018 we weren’t even really a bubble team. Looking back at Bracketology’s, nobody even mentioned us. Records aren’t created equally and the non-conference matters a ton in college basketball. Conference record doesn’t really matter too much, it?s who you beat and who you don’t over the full course of the season. Also the makeup of the conference changes, so these records between years don’t mean that much.

Everyone currently has us in, so if we won out and missed, it would be a shock. If we split this week, we’ll be in a similar boat to 2012. If we lose both, we’ll basically be where we were in 2018.

[smootness]

How Missouri is locked in as a 6th seed is weird if we are fighting for our lives to even make a play-in game

Their resume is clearly better than ours.

[BrunswickDawg]

2010 we were on the bubble but projected out by most before the Tournament field was announced. Only 4 SEC teams made it in.

2012 we were right on the edge.

2018 we weren’t even really a bubble team. Looking back at Bracketology’s, nobody even mentioned us. Records aren’t created equally and the non-conference matters a ton in college basketball. Conference record doesn’t really matter too much, it?s who you beat and who you don’t over the full course of the season. Also the makeup of the conference changes, so these records between years don’t mean that much.

Everyone currently has us in, so if we won out and missed, it would be a shock. If we split this week, we’ll be in a similar boat to 2012. If we lose both, we’ll basically be where we were in 2018.

I'd don't disagree. But, I bet if you comb the message board archives though, our fans were making a lot of the same "Win and we are 100% in" type comments (which is what my post was really about).
Bracketology and NET has made this a lot easier to project then the old days. But, as long as humans are making the selections there is always the chance for the snub.

[smootness]

I'd don't disagree. But, I bet if you comb the message board archives though, our fans were making a lot of the same "Win and we are 100% in" type comments (which is what my post was really about).
Bracketology and NET has made this a lot easier to project then the old days. But, as long as humans are making the selections there is always the chance for the snub.

So there are 2 questions: did those teams do all we said they needed to do, and did the people who said that base it on actual information? My guess is no to at least 1 of those. I said last week we needed to finish 3-1 to feel confident, 2-2 would be on the line but possibly in, and 1-3 we’re out. If we win both this week, that’s 3-1 and we should still be in, based on the information out there. It would be a shock in that case to miss - not just to uninformed fans, but to everyone.

[Lord McBuckethead]

A NET of 38 has never been left out of the field. And the media seems to love us.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Win both this week & we’re in. That’s the long & short of it. Win 1 (SC) & we’re in going into the SEC tourney but a win or 2 would make us feel better.

[Cowbell]

Win both this week & we?re in. That?s the long & short of it. Win 1 (SC) & we?re in going into the SEC tourney but a win or 2 would make us feel better.

Well if it ain't the prodigal son***

[Captain Falcon]

So there are 2 questions: did those teams do all we said they needed to do, and did the people who said that base it on actual information? My guess is no to at least 1 of those. I said last week we needed to finish 3-1 to feel confident, 2-2 would be on the line but possibly in, and 1-3 we?re out. If we win both this week, that?s 3-1 and we should still be in, based on the information out there. It would be a shock in that case to miss - not just to uninformed fans, but to everyone.

In 2018 we lost our last two regular season games when most thought we needed both, and then went 1-1 in Nashville.

In 2012 we lost 5 of 7 to finish the regular season but all we had to do was not lose to a terrible Georgia team AGAIN in our first SECT game and we probably still get in. Welp, guess what we went and did.

In 2010 we lost our last two regular season games, one to a bad Auburn team and then another when Tennessee boat raced us on our home court. Did make a run in the SECT but then the John Wall lane violation no call happened.

So in all of those cases we finished poorly on some or all levels. Another poor finish this year would certainly hurt us but I think we?ll be fine if we beat SC and Vandy. And still have a chance even if we lose to Vandy.

[Quaoarsking]

No one on Selection Sunday thought we had any chance to get in in 2012 or 2018. We were a 4 seed in the NIT both years, not even close to a bid.

2010, though, yeah that sucked. A lot of bracketologists had us in.

[chef dixon]

Our resume is solidly stronger than almost all other teams being mentioned on the cut line. If we win both of the last two games we are going to be a 7 or 8 seed

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Our resume is solidly stronger than almost all other teams being mentioned on the cut line. If we win both of the last two games we are going to be a 7 or 8 seed

Naw we’re not getting that high. Win both & we’re a solid 10 maybe 9 seed. Win a couple in the SEC Tourney on top of that then we maybe could make it to 8 line.

[msudawg1200]

I'd don't disagree. But, I bet if you comb the message board archives though, our fans were making a lot of the same "Win and we are 100% in" type comments (which is what my post was really about).
Bracketology and NET has made this a lot easier to project then the old days. But, as long as humans are making the selections there is always the chance for the snub.

Yeah, and we didn't win in those years. We crapped our pants down the stretch, especially in 2012. We went from safely in and about a 6 seed to losing 6 of 8 to finish the season and losing to an absolute crap Georgia team twice in that stretch one being at home. The only time we came close to getting screwed was 2010 when we made it to the SECTCG and lost to Kentucky on the John Wall lane violation. I thought that got us in. Every other year you mentioned we either were undeserving, shite the bed, or both. If we win both games this week WE ARE IN. Period. End of story. Lose to Vandy and it gets dicey. Lose to SCar and start buying NIT tickets.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Naw we’re not getting that high. Win both & we’re a solid 10 maybe 9 seed. Win a couple in the SEC Tourney on top of that then we maybe could make it to 8 line.

I'd prefer to stay a 10 seed. There's not much difference between 7,8,9, and 10 seeds but there's a ton of difference between 1 and 2 seeds. You want to avoid a 1 seed as long as possible in the Tournament.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

I'd prefer to stay a 10 seed. There's not much difference between 7,8,9, and 10 seeds but there's a ton of difference between 1 and 2 seeds. You want to avoid a 1 seed as long as possible in the Tournament.

I agree

[Commercecomet24]

I agree

Dude where you been?

[smootness]

I'd prefer to stay a 10 seed. There's not much difference between 7,8,9, and 10 seeds but there's a ton of difference between 1 and 2 seeds. You want to avoid a 1 seed as long as possible in the Tournament.

Interestingly, in the modern era, while they are less likely to win the first game, 11 seeds have made the Sweet 16, Elite 8, and Final 4 more often than 10, 9, and 8 seeds. 10s have also made each of those rounds more than 9s or 8s.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Dude where you been?

I’ve been around

[Commercecomet24]

I’ve been around

Haven't seen you on here in ages. Miss your posts.

[LC Dawg]

Interestingly, in the modern era, while they are less likely to win the first game, 11 seeds have made the Sweet 16, Elite 8, and Final 4 more often than 10, 9, and 8 seeds. 10s have also made each of those rounds more than 9s or 8s.

I'd love to be an 11 seed. As I said in another thread we've got to upset someone in the 1st round and no 6 seed wants to play us and we'll scare the hell out of any 3 seed.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I'd love to be an 11 seed. As I said in another thread we've got to upset someone in the 1st round and no 6 seed wants to play us and we'll scare the hell out of any 3 seed.

The only reason I don't want to be an 11, which I'd honestly prefer, is because I feel like if we're an 11 we're gonna be in the play in. If we can be an 11 and miss the play in then give that to me all day. Not much difference in playing a 6 or 7, but it would be a sizable difference in playing a Texas or an Arizona over maybe getting Marquette once again or the most beatable Gonzaga team in the last 10 years. As I said earlier, avoid the 1 as long as possible.

Our luck we'll get hot at the right for the second time this century and end up as an 8 or 9 and have to play Houston in the second round.

[RLM38654]

After West Virginia win at Iowa State, MSU moves back to the last 4 in. Big win or not still think State should ahead of West Virginia and also Nevada who lost to slaw az Wyoming. State is going to have win tonight and cover the spread to remain #39. The NET is based off of that. Other bubble teams, tonight.

Tonight KenPom Projections
Clemson @ Virginia L, 69-63 64 30% Away
Texas Tech @ Kansas L, 78-68 70 17% Away
San Diego State @ Boise W, 67-66 67 55% Home

[Ezsoil]

I'd say Auburn is the team that should be worried ....I can see them losing out and being part of a SECT seeding logjam at 9-9

[msstate7]

https://i.postimg.cc/HxTkDSkr/9004-DCEC-F5-EC-49-AC-8-EB1-1-A320995-D749.jpg (https://postimg.cc/TyH6nJmx)

[StarkVegasSteve]

Memphis is the one team I do not get how they are safe. They have two Q1 wins and four Q2. They even have TWO Q3 losses. How the hell do the metrics favor them?

[ZedFedder]

We need Auburn to lose out. Which, I think they will, but still.

[sleepy dawg]

Memphis is the one team I do not get how they are safe. They have two Q1 wins and four Q2. They even have TWO Q3 losses. How the hell do the metrics favor them?

They're 2-3 in Q1 and 7-3 in Q2. They have 1 Q3 loss and 0 Q4 losses. Perhaps you're looking at RPI or something other than the latest NET?

[StarkVegasSteve]

They're 2-3 in Q1 and 7-3 in Q2. They have 1 Q3 loss and 0 Q4 losses. Perhaps you're looking at RPI or something other than the latest NET?

You are right. I was looking at it on my phone and it was formatted differently.

[R2Dawg]

I think Aub could be in trouble as many as they have lost down the stretch. Their losing record is bad last 10 games.

[Captain Falcon]

May be wrong on this, but I kinda think Auburn beats Tennessee on Saturday (especially with Zeigler out for the season now) and all the talk of them missing the tourney ends up being for naught.

Having said that, assuming they lose at Bama tonight, Lunardi and others will likely drop them behind us and very much in the Last In/First Out group of teams.

[parabrave]

OK I'm getting confused. Last 4 in mean you are in the bracket, 62-64?? Last 4 byes mean 65-68?? Which is better?? Does Lunardi also draw up the US Congressional Budget??

[PGHBulldogBG]

May be wrong on this, but I kinda think Auburn beats Tennessee on Saturday (especially with Zeigler out for the season now) and all the talk of them missing the tourney ends up being for naught.

Having said that, assuming they lose at Bama tonight, Lunardi and others will likely drop them behind us and very much in the Last In/First Out group of teams.

Auburn has a higher NET which won’t really fall losing to Bama or Tenn. Even if we beat Vandy, both of us will be 9-9 in conference and they won the head to head. I doubt they take State over Auburn, but I think as long as we win Saturday both State and Auburn will be in as a 10 seed barring some conference tournament upsets. Best way to secure our bid is to win Saturday and then 1 in SEC tournament. If we do that, it gives us 22 wins and I do not see how we get left out with that

[PMDawg]

It's been said a lot, but the SEC needing to get 8 for us to make it, along with UNC lurking on the wrong side of the bubble, is very scary.

[StarkVegasSteve]

OK I'm getting confused. Last 4 in mean you are in the bracket, 62-64?? Last 4 byes mean 65-68?? Which is better?? Does Lunardi also draw up the US Congressional Budget??

Last 4 in means you play in the Tues/Wed play in games. Last 4 byes means you don't have to play in that and you're in the field.

[RLM38654]

This what I think the bubble teams have to do to get in to the tournament, Also this is what I think the committee is thinking, not me. Also assuming there will be two or three bid stealers.

#39 Memphis- Memphis wins tomorrow against SMU and beats Houston on Sunday, they are in regardless of what they do in the AAC tournament.

#40 Boise State- Win at Utah State and win two in the MWC tourney, they are probably in. .

#41 West Virginia - Beat Kansas State on Saturday they are in regardless of what happens in the Big 12 tournament

#42 Auburn - Beat Alabama or Tennessee they are in

#43 Mississippi State- Beat Vandy and win a game in the SEC Tournament but my gut is telling me two games. Win two games and State is a lock, one game I think State is probably in but hanging in the balance.

#44 Nevada- Probably has to win the MWC Tournament or beat UNLV this weekend and get to the Championship game, but don't think that will be enough

#45 Arizona State- Beat UCLA and USC on the the road and win a game, maybe two in the PAC-12 Tourney

#46 Wisconsin- Has to beat Purdue and Minnesota and win two games in the Big 10 tourney

#69 North Carolina- Beat Duke and win two games in the ACC tourney

#70 Oklahoma State- Beat Texas Tech and get to the Big 12 Championship game

#71 Michigan- Beat Illinois and IU on the road and probably two games in Big 10 Tourney

#72 Utah State- Win MWC Tournament

#73 Clemson- Beat Notre Dame and get to the ACC Championship game

#74 Charleston - Win CAA Tournament

#75 Penn State- Beat Northwestern and Maryland and probably two or three games in the Big 10 tournament

#76 Texas Tech- Win the Big 12 Tournament

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Win Saturday & we’re in

[Ari Gold]

Win Saturday & we’re in

Agree... unless a few crazy things happen in conference tourneys

[RLM38654]

Michigan, Wiskey, ASU, USC and Rutgers all lost last night.