Significant Severe Weather Event Thursday

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC has issued a Day 5 enhanced threat. To add to things, as of right now the timing looks to push the storms through overnight. SPC is also already using the word outbreak. Jackson NWS this morning saying wind fields look to favor discrete supercells with tornadoes, some strong, possible. This will be a system to watch.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/MS_swody5_PROB.png?1677405791

[ArrowDawg]

SPC has issued a Day 5 enhanced threat. To add to things, as of right now the timing looks to push the storms through overnight. SPC is also already using the word outbreak. Jackson NWS this morning saying wind fields look to favor discrete supercells with tornadoes, some strong, possible. This will be a system to watch.


We live in the deep south, where mother nature apparently has set her sights on constantly torturing people almost every week of their lives with severe weather/tornadoes. It is what it is, man. This winter has already been unbelievable with how many events we've had, and we still have spring storm season coming up. And honestly, I get sick of all of this damn gloom and doom wording. It's all based on models, and models by nature are crap. They give a general sense of what MIGHT happen, not what WILL happen. All we can do is stay aware of the weather and act accordingly.

[starkvegasdawg]

We live in the deep south, where mother nature apparently has set her sights on constantly torturing people almost every week of their lives with severe weather/tornadoes. It is what it is, man. This winter has already been unbelievable with how many events we've had, and we still have spring storm season coming up. And honestly, I get sick of all of this damn gloom and doom wording. It's all based on models, and models by nature are crap. They give a general sense of what MIGHT happen, not what WILL happen. All we can do is stay aware of the weather and act accordingly.

That's why it's called forecasting and not stating fact. But these models have come a long way the last few years. And I would rather give a head up on what might happen so people can prepare that want to. Especially when the Jackson radar that covers most of the state is currently down for an upgrade and as of this morning they are not sure if it will be back up by this event. If not, then people will need to err on the side of caution as it will be very hard to get s good idea of what is going on in parts of the state.

What I won't do...and neither will my chase team on their posts...is try to make an event sound worse than it is. We're not interested in fear clicks. But if the rooms full of people with Ph.D's say it could be a dangerous day then I shall relay that info.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks for the heads up, SVD! Appreciate your info!

[Thick]

Thanks, and always appreciated!!

[parabrave]

Do you think it will affect North of 82 more than south? Saw some models that had it really impacting the NW corner?

[starkvegasdawg]

Do you think it will affect North of 82 more than south? Saw some models that had it really impacting the NW corner?

From what I've seen the current orange shaded area looks pretty dead on for now. As we get closer they'll make some final adjustments and possible upgrades.

[StarkVegasSteve]

From what I've seen the current orange shaded area looks pretty dead on for now. As we get closer they'll make some final adjustments and possible upgrades.

SVD what's the timing for these storms coming through the DFW area. Usually we're a day ahead of Mississippi with the storms.

[starkvegasdawg]

SVD what's the timing for these storms coming through the DFW area. Usually we're a day ahead of Mississippi with the storms.

This is looking originate right about Dallas so I would say any storms for you would be Thursday morning to around noon. Right now your area looks to be right on the edge of it with the worst being off to your east.

[StarkVegasSteve]

This is looking originate right about Dallas so I would say any storms for you would be Thursday morning to around noon. Right now your area looks to be right on the edge of it with the worst being off to your east.

As always, thanks for what you do SVD. I generally only start looking for severe weather when I see your posts.

[starkvegasdawg]

As always, thanks for what you do SVD. I generally only start looking for severe weather when I see your posts.

Appreciate it. I really, though, just skim the surface on what I post here. Our social media guy puts in some real work on his posts for our patreon site. First one he posts for this event I'll see if I can get permission to post it over here, too.

[starkvegasdawg]

And he has made his first post. These are the updates he makes daily when severe weather is approaching. These are typically reserved solely for our Patreon supporters (patreon.com/NMSCAS). This update is on our $1/month. Higher levels offer additional perks such as live storm chase feeds.

Post Name: Severe Weather Possible to Likely Next Week (3/02-03/03)

It's another week, and you know what that means. You guessed right; another severe weather threat is approaching, which could be significant. We will get into the details shortly, but here is a quick note on a few things. First, the severe weather threat out west today (Sunday) will not affect us much tomorrow across Mississippi and Alabama except for some scattered showers and wind gusts up to 40mph. Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in effect for West Tennessee, North, Central Alabama, and North and Central Mississippi until at least 04:00 PM, if not longer.
Now, let's talk about the severe weather threat for Thursday into Friday. As mentioned above, this threat could be significant as the Storm Prediction Center has its equivalent of an ENHANCED (3/5) Risk for severe weather across much of Mississippi and West Alabama. In addition, in this morning's outlook, the SPC mentioned that a "Severe Weather Outbreak is possible." Below is the text from the SPC regarding the Thursday timeframe:
On Thursday, an upper-level trough will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. By late afternoon on Thursday, model forecasts develop a corridor of moderate instability in east Texas and have strong deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains. This environment should support severe storms capable of large hail, wind damage, and perhaps some tornadoes. As a result, a widespread severe weather outbreak will be possible beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. The potential for severe storms should shift eastward across the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast states Thursday night where the threat for wind damage, hail, and tornadoes should continue."

NWS Jackosn and Memphis both agree that severe thunderstorms are likely Thursday going into Thursday night. Severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. This event is still several days away, so stay tuned for updates on impacts and timing over the next few days.

We are entering our peak severe weather season (from late October to mid-May), where nearly 40% of all tornadoes in Mississippi since 1950 occurred in March and April. So NOW is the time to prepare your severe weather action plans. We have severe weather tips on our website, and be sure to view our Severe Weather Video Series here: https://tinyurl.com/y83n4h6v

Attachments:
-Wind Advisory Graphic
-SPC Outlooks for Thursday and Friday.
-NWS Graphics
-Colorado State Probability Outlook

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[starkvegasdawg]

And the rest of the growth is:

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[TUSK]

FTFY


And the rest of the growth is:3371

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[SpaceBully]

Do you think it will affect North of 82 more than south? Saw some models that had it really impacting the NW corner?

North MS, above Tupelo is considered part of Tornado Alley which starts in Kansas/Oklahoma. The worst tornadoes in history have generally occurred in the north part of the state. Hwy. 82 is a good north/south boundary cut off. When I went to MSU back in the 70's, I don't think we had any tornadoes in my 4 years there. Some really bad lightning storms, but no tornadoes to my memory.

[starkvegasdawg]

North MS, above Tupelo is considered part of Tornado Alley which starts in Kansas/Oklahoma. The worst tornadoes in history have generally occurred in the north part of the state. Hwy. 82 is a good north/south boundary cut off. When I went to MSU back in the 70's, I don't think we had any tornadoes in my 4 years there. Some really bad lightning storms, but no tornadoes to my memory.

Smith county actually is the most tornado prone county in the USA. It's an inside joke on our chase team that it's not a severe event until Smith county has its tornado.

[parabrave]

North MS, above Tupelo is considered part of Tornado Alley which starts in Kansas/Oklahoma. The worst tornadoes in history have generally occurred in the north part of the state. Hwy. 82 is a good north/south boundary cut off. When I went to MSU back in the 70's, I don't think we had any tornadoes in my 4 years there. Some really bad lightning storms, but no tornadoes to my memory.

I've always thought 82 and 98 was the Tornado alley. We don't get alot of medium/long track tornadoes south of 98/ But Hattiesburg does get some whoppers.

[DownwardDawg]

I've always thought 82 and 98 was the Tornado alley. We don't get alot of medium/long track tornadoes south of 98/ But Hattiesburg does get some whoppers.

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[parabrave]

84

Well I meant to add the word between. Here on the Coast Dam ants are building their mounds bigger today. Thats not a good sign when we are forecasted to get no rain/

[Commercecomet24]

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Definitely!

[CovertDawg]

Anyone around for the F5 in Jackson in 1966?

All the F5/EF5 Tornadoes since 1950.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/usf5tors.gif

[RocketDawg]

Well I meant to add the word between. Here on the Coast Dam ants are building their mounds bigger today. Thats not a good sign when we are forecasted to get no rain/

I noticed the same thing here today. Not sure what that means weatherwise.

[parabrave]

I noticed the same thing here today. Not sure what that means weatherwise.

Well the ants are the original forecasters!!!

[Dawg_Lover]

SVD, any updates? Just curious as to your current consensus for today and tomorrow. Thanks.