MBK upcoming schedule

[msstate7]

Tcu
At South Carolina
Mizzou
Lsu
At ark
Kentucky
At OM
At mizzou
aTm
South Carolina
At vandy

BPI has us favored in 8 including this Saturday. Kentucky at home is basically a toss up 52/48 Kentucky. It's time to win some games.

[trob115]

11-0, and we get a high seed*


We desperately need a win Saturday. We could pull off a run of 6/7 if that happens.

[NCMSTFAN]

Its going to be tough. Missouri twice aren't gimmie games, UK is playing better also. We need to win 7 or 8 more games, maybe more

[parabrave]

So can we play OM and Vandy more than once?

[PGHBulldogBG]

TCU-L
@USC-W
Missouri-W
LSU-W
@Ark-L
UK-L
@Ole Miss-W
@Missouri-L
aTm-Toss up
USC-W
@Vandy- Toss up

Anywhere from 6-12 to 8-10 is what it’s looking like. That Florida loss at home was just the straw to ruin our tournament chances. If we just win that and the 2 toss ups we go 9-9 and make the tournament with 1 SEC tournament win since we have the Marquette and Utah wins.

[klong-dog]

Tcu
At South Carolina
Mizzou
Lsu
At ark
Kentucky
At OM
At mizzou
aTm
South Carolina
At vandy

BPI has us favored in 8 including this Saturday. Kentucky at home is basically a toss up 52/48 Kentucky. It's time to win some games.

Unfortunately I see 4 maybe 5 wins. We're not beating TCU either.

[EdwardDrayton]

Unfortunately I see 4 maybe 5 wins. We're not beating TCU either.

Yep. Four or five. And I would not even bet on that.

[msstate7]

A pessimistic view is certainly warranted, but I think they're gonna surprise us some. I feel pretty good about Saturday, and I never feel good about us in games like that.

[EdwardDrayton]

A pessimistic view is certainly warranted, but I think they're gonna surprise us some. I feel pretty good about Saturday, and I never feel good about us in games like that.

Don't think I'm in the pessimistic zone but certainly less than optimistic. So somewhere in between? Realistic?

[R2Dawg]

Unfortunately I see 4 maybe 5 wins. We're not beating TCU either.

After watching at Bama Wed, we got a chance. At some point we are going to win one of these.

[LC Dawg]

We just went toe to toe with the #2 team at their place. This team has some glaring weaknesses but they play hard and don't give up so I'm not giving up on them yet.
We absolutely can beat TCU and we can absolutely get blown out.
If we can pull off the upset and gain some confidence I think we string together some wins.
I'll be in the Hump tomorrow cursing refs. Hopefully its a good day.

[msstate7]

Tcu -2

[somebodyshotmypaw]

We have to make a run the remainder of the schedule.

The ones we needed that got away:
at Georgia
Florida in the Hump
Tenn in the Hump when they had 2 starters out

[NCMSTFAN]

The Georgia and Florida losses really hurt. That being said beating TCU tomorrow can be a step in the right direction. The schedule will be easier and we should be able to string together some wins.

We absolutely have to beat TCU though, They are either Quad 1 or 2 so beating them is essential. There are enough tough teams left to beat to give us a slim shot at the tournament but it starts by winning tomorrow

[msstate7]

Tcu is #13 net, so Q1

[Quaoarsking]

The metrics say we aren't that bad, but I would be pretty surprised if we could climb out of this big hole we've dug ourselves into.

I do think we're better than 50-50 to make the NIT if that means anything.

[Reunion Dog]

I can see 1-10 very easily. Y?all need to get real? this team sucks

[msstate7]

Our net is now #53. This week's opponents...

South Carolina #273
Mizzou #45

BPI favors up at 87.9% vs SC and 69.4% vs mizzou.

We obviously can't lose to SC. Mizzou is a Q2 opportunity. If we go 2-0, I think we're right back on the bubble

[R2Dawg]

Our net is now #53. This week's opponents...

South Carolina #273
Mizzou #45

BPI favors up at 87.9% vs SC and 69.4% vs mizzou.

We obviously can't lose to SC. Mizzou is a Q2 opportunity. If we go 2-0, I think we're right back on the bubble

Agree, win next two we are right there. National media likes our team too despite some bad losses. If we had finished Bama off we'd really be in good shape.

Just like a lot of years with Howland, we got to finish and get some wins that we should win.

[Ari Gold]

Unfortunately I see 4 maybe 5 wins. We're not beating TCU either.

Good morning horn frogs

[Ari Gold]

I can see 1-10 very easily. Y?all need to get real? this team sucks


Well there’s one....
keeping it real

[TALL DAWG]

How do we give Ari a rep?.

[maroonmania]

We're not beating TCU either.

You were saying?

This team can beat most anyone if they make some perimeter shots. But I know that doesn't happen very often.

[Ari Gold]

I can see 1-10 very easily. Y?all need to get real? this team sucks

Well theres 2.. just keeping it real..

[Commercecomet24]

6 more wins gets us to 20. I think thats very doable

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Well theres 2.. just keeping it real..

We are hitting the part of the schedule where we have to do some damage. We need to beat Missouri Saturday, then LSU.

[Commercecomet24]

Well theres 2.. just keeping it real..

Well so much for that awesome 1-10 prediction by Mr negativity.

[PGHBulldogBG]

6 more wins gets us to 20. I think thats very doable

I will be honest I didn?t think we had any chance to beat TCU but we did. That was our toughest game left on our schedule at the time and we won it. @Ark might match it, but that was a great win. Unfortunately, I have a bad feeling that home Florida loss is going to be the killer. We need to win 7 of the next 9 which will be tough considering @ark is pretty much a loss. We have little room for error but it can be done

[Rawdawg]

We need to go 7-2 from here out.

[Quaoarsking]

Remaining Schedule (NET)

46 Missouri
137 LSU
@ 28 Arkansas
35 Kentucky
@ 113 Ole Miss
@ 46 Missouri
43 Texas A&M
273 South Carolina
@ 93 Vanderbilt

To get to 9-9 in the SEC, we'd need to go 7-2.

[Quaoarsking]

Put another way, let's say we have 3 groups of 3 games:

The tough home games
35 Kentucky
43 Texas A&M
46 Missouri

The tough road games
@ 28 Arkansas
@ 46 Missouri
@ 93 Vanderbilt

The easier games
@ 113 Ole Miss
137 LSU
273 South Carolina

We need to go 3-0 against 1 set and 2-1 against each of the other 2, or 3-0 against 2 of them and 1-2 against the last.

We absolutely can't afford a loss to the third group, and no more than 1 loss in the first. However, we've already lost a home game to a team with a worse NET than any of those 3, and a road game to a team with a worse NET than any in the second group. We really have our work cut out for us.

[msstate7]

Tcu gets a Q2 win tonight without the guy that got hurt against us

[klong-dog]

Great win against TCU and solid road performance last night. I think this game Saturday is now our biggest game of the year. If we take care of business these next two, we'll have the excitement and mojo for UK coming to town. Can we finally get them in a meaningful game? I think your sleeping on that road game in Oxford. That one falls in the "tough" road games left. @Mizzou and @Ark aren't likely. @Vandy and @OM are 50/50. Gotta win the rest of our home games.

[msstate7]

Net up 4 spots to #50

[Ari Gold]

I can see 1-10 very easily. Y?all need to get real? this team sucks

Well theres 3
Just keeping it real
Maybe the only thing that sucks is you ..

[trob115]

Tomorrow's NET rankings should be interesting. I'm guessing 47.

[Commercecomet24]

Well theres 3
Just keeping it real
Maybe the only thing that sucks is you ..

Awesome!

[parabrave]

Tomorrow's NET rankings should be interesting. I'm guessing 47.

Yep. Beat Arky and Ky then its in the high 30s.

[msstate7]

46th in NET

[BiscuitEater]

We're not beating TCU either.



Good call!

[LC Dawg]

We have to win LSU, @OM, SC, and @Vandy. That leaves @Ark, UK, @Mizzou, and A&M. We need to win at least 2 of these.
@Ark and @Mizzou are currently Q1 and UK could end up there also. We need another Q1 win. Also need Utah to get back in the top 50 so that's a Q1 win.

[MetEdDawg]

We have to win LSU, @OM, SC, and @Vandy. That leaves @Ark, UK, @Mizzou, and A&M. We need to win at least 2 of these.
@Ark and @Mizzou are currently Q1 and UK could end up there also. We need another Q1 win. Also need Utah to get back in the top 50 so that's a Q1 win.

This pretty much sums it up right here. No bad losses, get a couple good wins. If we get to 9-9 in conference I think we are definitely in. 8-10 and things are dicey and dependent on some other things.

I'll be interested to see the updated Bracketology after the weekend. 46 in NET is fringe tournament team. Not in but in the conversation.

[NCMSTFAN]

We have to take it one game at a time but I honestly feel like we can beat everyone remaining on the schedule. That being said we can also lose to everyone remaining on our schedule. I wish we didn't dig ourselves in this hole because we are actually a good team. We just need to finish strong... we can't lose more than 3 games finishing out... dont forget we have the SEC tournament as well to try to get a few wins

[msstate7]

I'm not sure we can make it without sweeping home games, beating all but ark or mizzou on road, and winning a game in sec tourney. Making the ncaat as an at large is hard AF

[MetEdDawg]

I'm not sure we can make it without sweeping home games, beating all but ark or mizzou on road, and winning a game in sec tourney. Making the ncaat as an at large is hard AF

We definitely can do it. Prior to this weekends game, Missouri was on the 7 line according to Lunardi. They are 5-5 in conference (2 games better than us having played only 1 team currently ranked in the Top 25 in conference while we've played 5 such games).

We also now have a better NET than Missouri (46 for us and 48 for Missouri). If we can beat LSU and win @Arkansas who is 29th in NET, we will be projected in.

[Goldendawg]

We have to take it one game at a time but I honestly feel like we can beat everyone remaining on the schedule. That being said we can also lose to everyone remaining on our schedule. I wish we didn't dig ourselves in this hole because we are actually a good team. We just need to finish strong... we can't lose more than 3 games finishing out... dont forget we have the SEC tournament as well to try to get a few wins

Talked to Darrell Wilson at a recent HS game, (He is HC at IAHS and heck of a great guy). He agrees with your synopsis of a strong finish in the regular season and a win in the SEC Tourney. I asked him if he had any eligibility left and could come back and hit some three's for us. Said he was too old for that! Hail State!

[LC Dawg]

I'm not sure we can make it without sweeping home games, beating all but ark or mizzou on road, and winning a game in sec tourney. Making the ncaat as an at large is hard AF
I think we'll hold serve at home. I worry most about us dropping one of the road games that will hurt us because it's hard to win on the road - even against bad teams sometimes. Ole Miss is a rivalry game and we never seem to play well at Vandy.
@Ark will be extremely difficult but I'm curious about @Mizzou since we just beat them pretty solidly at home.

[PGHBulldogBG]

Losing that Florida game at home was really bad. I get UF is decent, but that is a game we had to win. Now we have no room for error and will have to win @ark or @Mizzou to make up for that. I think @Mizzou is a bit more feasible because we never do well @Ark. At the same time we have to beat @Ole Miss @Vandy and beat LSU, aTm and SC at home. It’s going to be very tough but that is what we need to do or somehow upset UK who is now playing like a top 15 team

[NCMSTFAN]

Talked to Darrell Wilson at a recent HS game, (He is HC at IAHS and heck of a great guy). He agrees with your synopsis of a strong finish in the regular season and a win in the SEC Tourney. I asked him if he had any eligibility left and could come back and hit some three's for us. Said he was too old for that! Hail State!

Nice!!! Hailstate!

[R2Dawg]

Losing that Florida game at home was really bad. I get UF is decent, but that is a game we had to win. Now we have no room for error and will have to win @ark or @Mizzou to make up for that. I think @Mizzou is a bit more feasible because we never do well @Ark. At the same time we have to beat @Ole Miss @Vandy and beat LSU, aTm and SC at home. It’s going to be very tough but that is what we need to do or somehow upset UK who is now playing like a top 15 team

Agree that UF loss could keep us out of tourney. How big would a road win at Bama had been? We are so close to being in. Those two games would have given us huge margin, now we have almost no margin.

This team can do it. 96 Final 4 team lost like 4 of 5 mid season but went on a tear in 2-3 weeks like no other.

[Captain Falcon]

I?m not saying we win out because that would require something pretty remarkable, but I will say that there is not a team left on our schedule that I don?t think we can beat. I wish we had weathered the January storm just a little bit better, and were 5-5 instead of 3-7, but we very much have a path filled with a bunch of winnable games.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

We just got one against LSU. Certainly not a big win, but it would have been a catastrophic loss. Now on the road against Arkansas would be a big win.

[Ari Gold]

I can see 1-10 very easily. Y?all need to get real? this team sucks

Well theres 4.
Keep keeping it real

[PGHBulldogBG]

I think the most realistic ending for this team is 8-10. That will put us at 20-11. If we win 2 SEC tournament games we make the NCAA tournament. If we do not we will be high NIT. I see losses @Ark, @Missouri. Wins against SC, @Ole Miss. Then we take 2 of the 3 from UK at home, aTm at home and @Vandy.

[RockyDog]

I think we'll hold serve at home. I worry most about us dropping one of the road games that will hurt us because it's hard to win on the road - even against bad teams sometimes. Ole Miss is a rivalry game and we never seem to play well at Vandy.
@Ark will be extremely difficult but I'm curious about @Mizzou since we just beat them pretty solidly at home.

I haven't watched much if any of Arkansas but Klein last night seemed to think that their trouble scoring and our defense would make it a very winnable game. We controlled the game at home against Mizzou, but on the road I can see their pressure getting to us and if they hit 3s it could be a game where they run us out of the gym. @scUM and @Vandy won't be gimmes either, especially after what happened last night in Nashville.

[RocketDawg]

I'm not sure we can make it without sweeping home games, beating all but ark or mizzou on road, and winning a game in sec tourney. Making the ncaat as an at large is hard AF

It is, especially for a major conference school, but the solution is to just go ahead and win all the rest of the games we have left. And the way they're playing now, they have a decent chance of doing that, or almost doing that.

[trob115]

Georgia winning today likely secures our "bad loss" as just a quad 2 loss. We couldn't afford them slipping to a Quad 3 or 4.

[PGHBulldogBG]

Georgia winning today likely secures our "bad loss" as just a quad 2 loss. We couldn't afford them slipping to a Quad 3 or 4.

I actually think the home loss to Florida is worse than the road loss to Georgia. That game is the one game we lost that really made me mad. Losing to SEC teams on the road outside Ole Miss and South Carolina is acceptable with the talent we have, and so is losing to Bama and Tenn at home along with Drake on the road who is going to win the MVC. The Florida loss was frustrating but then again I didn’t expect us to beat TCU so it kind of evens out.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

And there is another one. Down go the Hogs in Fayetteville!

[Ari Gold]

I can see 1-10 very easily. Y?all need to get real? this team sucks

Just keeping it real .. Thats 5 douche bag..

[msstate7]

Just keeping it real .. Thats 5 douche bag..

These posts are becoming the highlight of my week

[Cowbell]

These posts are becoming the highlight of my week

Let's hope it is the highlight of the month

[chef dixon]

I think a lot of us are underestimating the weight of our non conference wins. 8-10 in the conference we still are going to be close to a lock. Our resume will destroy a lot of the other bubble teams

[somebodyshotmypaw]

I think a lot of us are underestimating the weight of our non conference wins. 8-10 in the conference we still are going to be close to a lock. Our resume will destroy a lot of the other bubble teams

And the SEC schedule was so front loaded.

[Commercecomet24]

Just keeping it real .. Thats 5 douche bag..

I love these posts!

[TaleofTwoDogs]

Please, lord, help me get one more........................

[parabrave]

And the SEC schedule was so front loaded.

And now Tenn is fading while Vandy is Rising.

[msstate7]

#40 in net

[MetEdDawg]

#40 in net

Next Lunardi Bracketology we will be on there somewhere, either in the First Four In, First Four Out, or next 4 out. But we will be there.

A significant number of bubble teams lost yesterday. And with a 40 NET, that's going to put us in a great spot.

[Rawdawg]

I think a lot of us are underestimating the weight of our non conference wins. 8-10 in the conference we still are going to be close to a lock. Our resume will destroy a lot of the other bubble teams

If we don?t have the SWAC schools on this schedule our NET is in the low 30s/hi 20s

[Quaoarsking]

If we don?t have the SWAC schools on this schedule our NET is in the low 30s/hi 20s

Can you show your work on that?

I'm not doubting you per se, but I've never been able to crack the NET formula in Excel like I did with the RPI, so it's always a surprise to see what the new rankings are.

[msstate7]

Can you show your work on that?

I'm not doubting you per se, but I've never been able to crack the NET formula in Excel like I did with the RPI, so it's always a surprise to see what the new rankings are.

I'm sure he's guessing, but I think it's a pretty safe assumption. 1 swac school is too many... 3 is absurd

[Quaoarsking]

I'm sure he's guessing, but I think it's a pretty safe assumption. 1 swac school is too many... 3 is absurd

I'm not so sure. I haven't found the exact formula, but it is apparently a blend of 5 things:

Team Value Index - "Algorithm set up to reward teams who beat other good teams. Results-oriented component of the NET."
Net Effiency - points per possession on offense and defense
Winning Percentage - just straight up W/L
Adjusted Win Percentage - W/L, but adjusted for home/away
Scoring Margin - capped at 10 points in each game, and any OT game is set to 1 no matter what


So our wins against the SWAC teams by 33, 30, and 10 will maximize the 3rd, 4th, and 5th components, and probably the 2nd too. They'll probably do poorly on the 1st, but we just don't know how much that will sway things.

On the RPI, scoring margin and efficiency didn't matter at all. It was all W/L and a huge SOS component, so beating a SWAC team was actually bad. But from the best I can gather from the information I have, playing a bad team isn't going to hurt as much in the NET if you can win by 10 or more points.

All 3 of our SWAC opponents have NETs in the 300s, so it would probably have been better to blow out teams in the 200s instead, but I don't think they're "NET killers" in the same way that they're "RPI killers." ... Or maybe I'm wrong. Honestly, I think it's pretty shady for the NCAA to publish these rankings without making the formula available for anyone in the public to check and audit. I'm sure there's been a mistake in them at some point, just like the BCS had in 2010.

[Rawdawg]

Can you show your work on that?

I'm not doubting you per se, but I've never been able to crack the NET formula in Excel like I did with the RPI, so it's always a surprise to see what the new rankings are.

I have not cracked it either, however compare our resume to Arkansas.

Arkansas:
17-8
NET 23
6-7 in Q1 and Q2
1 Q3 loss
SOS7
Nonconference SOS 10

MSU
17-8
NET 40
5-8 in Q1 and Q2
0 Q3 and Q4 losses
SOS 48
Nonconference SOS 205

The glaring differences of our resumes are that we beat them out right at their place and nonconference strength of schedule.

[EdwardDrayton]

Ari enjoying this thread like a baseball weekend conference three-game sweep!! LOL!!

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Next Lunardi Bracketology we will be on there somewhere, either in the First Four In, First Four Out, or next 4 out. But we will be there.

A significant number of bubble teams lost yesterday. And with a 40 NET, that's going to put us in a great spot.

I expect Houston, Purdue, Alabama, and one more. I don’t expect it to be us.

[Quaoarsking]

http://bracketmatrix.com/

Of the 27 brackets who have updated since our win over Arkansas, we are IN in 18 of them, with an average seed of 10.7 (which would be above the play-in line).

[LC Dawg]

I have not cracked it either, however compare our resume to Arkansas.

Arkansas:
17-8
NET 23
6-7 in Q1 and Q2
1 Q3 loss
SOS7
Nonconference SOS 10

MSU
17-8
NET 40
5-8 in Q1 and Q2
0 Q3 and Q4 losses
SOS 48
Nonconference SOS 205

The glaring differences of our resumes are that we beat them out right at their place and nonconference strength of schedule.

I'm not sure how to find nonconference SOS but I was looking at TCU's resume and they played 3 SWAC schools and have a Q4 loss and their NET is 24 even after losing 3 in a row. They do have 5 Q1 wins, are 3-0 in Q2 and they have a good overall SOS because they play in the Big 12 but their nonconference schedule looks similar to ours. I'd love to see what our NET would be if we had just won one of the AL or TN games. I think not closing out one of the ones we were close in is bigger than the FL or UGA losses.

[Ari Gold]

Just keeping it real .. Thats 5 douche bag..

Well let?s start a new streak sat...

[Goldendawg]

Well let?s start a new streak sat...

We better. This will be OM's Superbowl in a very bad basketball season for them. A loss would probably change the initials of our post season hopes to NIT, like the Howland teams. Win the rest and take care of our own destiny! Hail State!

[PGHBulldogBG]

We better. This will be OM's Superbowl in a very bad basketball season for them. A loss would probably change the initials of our post season hopes to NIL, like the Howland teams. Win the rest and take care of our own destiny! Hail State!

If we lose to Ole Miss that will basically put a nail in any NCAA hopes. If we lose to this Ole Miss team we don’t deserve to go to the tournament. Our only chance at that point would probably be to win SEC tournament

[Goldendawg]

If we lose to Ole Miss that will basically put a nail in any NCAA hopes. If we lose to this Ole Miss team we don’t deserve to go to the tournament. Our only chance at that point would probably be to win SEC tournament

Corrected to NIT, have NIL on the brain these days. Agree with your post. Even boring Howland teams made NIT. Wins are where it's at. NCAA Tourney or it's another bust.

[Ari Gold]

I can see 1-10 very easily. Y?all need to get real? this team sucks

I havent forgot about ya ... just back to keeping it real .. thats 6
Suck it

[Ari Gold]

Unfortunately I see 4 maybe 5 wins. We're not beating TCU either.

Theres 6

[Commercecomet24]

I havent forgot about ya ... just back to keeping it real .. thats 6
Suck it

Keep it going Ari!

[Quaoarsking]

Maybe he meant 1 loss and 10 wins!

[msstate7]

Up 2 spots in NET to #42

[somebodyshotmypaw]

We need 3 of the last 4.

[MetEdDawg]

Up 2 spots in NET to #42

Yesterday Lunardi had us in prior to games being played.

3-1 to end the season and we probably won't need any help from the SEC tournament and I think likely don't have to play the play in game. 2-2 and it might be iffy depending on the losses. Can't lose to SC.

Utah will have to beat UCLA to likely get back to it being a Quad 1 win. Really would be great for TCU to take down Kansas Monday night.

[msstate7]

Utah sorta fading has been offset some by Akron cracking top 100 in NET; that's now a Q2 win

[MetEdDawg]

Utah sorta fading has been offset some by Akron cracking top 100 in NET; that's now a Q2 win

We also need Ole Miss to stay in the Top 135. That's a Q2 win yesterday if they stay Top 135. And if Vandy can get a few more wins and get in the Top 75, a win at their place could be Q1 win.

[Quaoarsking]

Our fellow bubble team Clemson lost to an awful Louisville (4-23, 307 NET) team to fall to a net of 80. They are most likely dead in the water, improving every other bubble team's chances.

Wisconsin lost yesterday to drop their NET to 76. We want Oregon and North Carolina to lose today.

[Ari Gold]

Yesterday Lunardi had us in prior to games being played.

3-1 to end the season and we probably won't need any help from the SEC tournament and I think likely don't have to play the play in game. 2-2 and it might be iffy depending on the losses. Can't lose to SC.

Utah will have to beat UCLA to likely get back to it being a Quad 1 win. Really would be great for TCU to take down Kansas Monday night.

Yesterday was very nice to us
Losses by West Virginia , Wisconsin , wake Forrest , Clemson
We need to pull for Nc State against unc and wash state against Oregon today

And handle our business down the stretch

[Pancho]

wellness check on reunion dog? anybody????

[StarkVegasSteve]

wellness check on reunion dog? anybody????

I am sure the weekly pineapple party last night revived his spirits****

[Pancho]

aw. them upside down pineapples

[MetEdDawg]

Latest Lunardi sheet has us as the first team not getting a bye. So the first team participating in the play in game.

Go 3-1 and we likely don't have to play in the play in portion of the tournament. We will get a bye and be seeded a 10 or higher.

[msstate7]

North Carolina lost

[BeardoMSU]

I am sure the weekly pineapple party last night revived his spirits****

Lemon Party**

[MetEdDawg]

Lunardi has Oklahoma State, Boise State, Memphis, and Nevada ahead of us with the last teams getting byes.

Memphis has Houston and is playing now. Oklahoma State has WV Monday. Nevada Boise has UNLV tonight and Nevada plays again Tuesday.

So a couple of games to pay attention to today and tomorrow.

[Captain Falcon]

Good weekend for us on the bubble. A win at Mizzou likely elevates us out of the Last 4/Dayton Play-In game level for the time being.

[msstate7]

Tcu favored by 2 tonight vs Kansas. Tcu winning would help us out

[smootness]

Huge week for us. Two very tough games, and we really need to take 1 of them.

[msstate7]

Our chances according to BPI...
At mizzou 47.0%
aTm 56.3%
SC 96.6%
At vandy 56.2%

[LC Dawg]

We match up well with Missouri but it's at their place. I'm not sure what to make of them. Since we beat them they've beaten Tenn and SC but lost solidly to Auburn and A&M.
A&M is on fire. We need a great crowd next Saturday. i had tickets offered to me but my wife says I have to go to a crawfish boil so if anyone knows a good divorce attorney send them my way.

[R2Dawg]

We match up well with Missouri but it's at their place. I'm not sure what to make of them. Since we beat them they've beaten Tenn and SC but lost solidly to Auburn and A&M.
A&M is on fire. We need a great crowd next Saturday. i had tickets offered to me but my wife says I have to go to a crawfish boil so if anyone knows a good divorce attorney send them my way.

Just go to the game and you can let you wife find the attorney.

[R2Dawg]

Our chances according to BPI...
At mizzou 47.0%
aTm 56.3%
SC 96.6%
At vandy 56.2%

Min is 2-2 but really like 3-1

[PGHBulldogBG]

We need to win the last two home games. The one thing we have not done well this year is protecting our home court. We actually have some decent road wins and OOC neutral court, but have only beat 2 decent teams at home all year long. Win the two home games and game 1 of SEC tournament and I think we are in. The bubble is pretty soft this year.

[StarkVegasSteve]

We need to win the last two home games. The one thing we have not done well this year is protecting our home court. We actually have some decent road wins and OOC neutral court, but have only beat 2 decent teams at home all year long. Win the two home games and game 1 of SEC tournament and I think we are in. The bubble is pretty soft this year.

The bubble is soft, but a blue blood like UNC sitting out there worries me. Our resume is head and shoulders better than them, 0 Q1 wins for them, but the committee is human and the thought of Carolina's fan base vs our fan base would have me nervous on Selection Sunday if we go 2-2 in the next 4 and go one and done in the tournament.

[basedog]

We match up well with Missouri but it's at their place. I'm not sure what to make of them. Since we beat them they've beaten Tenn and SC but lost solidly to Auburn and A&M.
A&M is on fire. We need a great crowd next Saturday. i had tickets offered to me but my wife says I have to go to a crawfish boil so if anyone knows a good divorce attorney send them my way.

"One Call, That's All" or "Morgan and Morgan"**

[LC Dawg]

If we go 2-2 I don't think we make the tourney. Especially if it's SC and Vandy. Even though Vandy is playing well I'm not sure they can move up enough to be a Q1 win so that would be a Q4 and Q2 win. That would put us 8-10 in conference with no big conference wins. And our two biggest wins would be very early against Marquette and TCU without their leading scorer. I just don't think that makes us very attractive to the committee.
We've got to win at least one this week and both next week.
I don't think the SEC tournament would help us much unless we had a very deep run.

[Tater]

I can see 1-10 very easily. Y?all need to get real? this team sucks

Glad to see someone held down the resident dumbass fort

[Pancho]

what ole reunion dog up to?

[NCMSTFAN]

If we go 2-2 I don't think we make the tourney. Especially if it's SC and Vandy. Even though Vandy is playing well I'm not sure they can move up enough to be a Q1 win so that would be a Q4 and Q2 win. That would put us 8-10 in conference with no big conference wins. And our two biggest wins would be very early against Marquette and TCU without their leading scorer. I just don't think that makes us very attractive to the committee.
We've got to win at least one this week and both next week.
I don't think the SEC tournament would help us much unless we had a very deep run.

The win at Arkansas was a good conference win, but we defininetly need to beat Missouri and or Texas A&M to get a couple more Quad 1/2 wins to be comfortable. Beating South Carolina won't help much but losing to them will hurt alot. Vandy is much improved and are 8-6 in conference play with wins against Arkansas, Tennessee and Auburn so that will help some too if we can get it.

[Commercecomet24]

Glad to see someone held down the resident dumbass fort

LOL, We've had plenty of that lately! Where you been?

[PGHBulldogBG]

Tonight is a huge game for us. We need to win this game to put ourselves into the tournament. Losing it won’t be detrimental, but winning it will really elevate us with another quad 1 win

[Ari Gold]

That’s a gut punch
MUST win Sat against AM

[Tater]

LOL, We've had plenty of that lately! Where you been?

I had a month long hiatus for "repeated politics". Assuming I broke my rule of not posting while drunk and posted at 34 or something stupid. Doesn't seem to have changed much as when you remove one idiot, two more grow to take his place ������

[Tater]

That’s a gut punch
MUST win Sat against AM

Win out regular season and we feel good regardless of sec tourney performance and should be at worst last four in.

Drop A&M and I think we need at least 1 win in SECT.

Drop anyone other than A&M and we need 2 wins in SECT.

Drop multiple and we need to win the SECT.

But at this point we still control our destiny. That was a tough Q1 Loss. Feels a lot like the year where we had all the quality losses "like 2010? maybe".

But the bubbly is a bubblin

[msstate7]

Our NET didn't drop (43rd), Mizzou's didn't rise (51st).

Remaining schedule...
aTm 23rd
SC 242nd
At vandy 87th

[smootness]

Tonight isn't an absolute must-win because I don't think we have to win out to make it in. But it's pretty close. 3-0 to finish and we should make it; 2-1 and we'll be right on the bubble but very possibly in. 1-2 and we are probably out.

[Commercecomet24]

I had a month long hiatus for "repeated politics". Assuming I broke my rule of not posting while drunk and posted at 34 or something stupid. Doesn't seem to have changed much as when you remove one idiot, two more grow to take his place ������

Well don't post when drunk, lol! You always have some good insights on sports. Try not to get banned again, lol!

[Goldendawg]

The bubble is soft, but a blue blood like UNC sitting out there worries me. Our resume is head and shoulders better than them, 0 Q1 wins for them, but the committee is human and the thought of Carolina's fan base vs our fan base would have me nervous on Selection Sunday if we go 2-2 in the next 4 and go one and done in the tournament.

Watched a very few minutes of recent ACC game, UNC vs. NCS maybe. ACC announcer arguing with Lombardi that ACC in conference games have cannibalized overall record of very good teams and they deserve more than 5 tourney bids and no way SEC should get 8. Lombardi stuck to his position. We better win out. I have no confidence in being SEC team number 8!

[Tater]

Well don't post when drunk, lol! You always have some good insights on sports. Try not to get banned again, lol!

Sober me knows that.

But drunk me is smarterer at the strategery of locking my phone up.

[Commercecomet24]

Sober me knows that.

But drunk me is smarterer at the strategery of locking my phone up.

Awesome, lol!

[LC Dawg]

Our NET didn't drop (43rd), Mizzou's didn't rise (51st).

Remaining schedule...
aTm 23rd
SC 242nd
At vandy 87th

I don't think wins at home against SC and at Vandy will do enough for us. We have to win Saturday or the NCAA tournament is pretty much over for us.
If we beat A&M we may could stay in last four in with a loss at Vandy.
There's always the chance of a deep run in the SEC tourney but I hope we don't have to count on that.

[NCMSTFAN]

I don't think wins at home against SC and at Vandy will do enough for us. We have to win Saturday or the NCAA tournament is pretty much over for us.
If we beat A&M we may could stay in last four in with a loss at Vandy.
There's always the chance of a deep run in the SEC tourney but I hope we don't have to count on that.

Agreed, it honestly comes down to Texas A&M at this point. I'm not saying SC and Vandy won't help us but we need another Quad 1 win and Texas A&M gives us that. As you mentioned winning a few games in the SEC tourney will help as well but its never good having to rely on that.

[Ari Gold]

I can see 1-10 very easily. Y?all need to get real? this team sucks

Lets keep it real.. there is lucky number 7 .

[smootness]

I think we probably get in at this point assuming we take care of SC, even if we lose to Vandy. Winning both essentially guarantees we're in.

[msstate7]

I think we probably get in at this point assuming we take care of SC, even if we lose to Vandy. Winning both essentially guarantees we're in.

Be prepared for multiple miracle runs in conf tournaments to screw us haha

[Ari Gold]

I can see 1-10 very easily. Y?all need to get real? this team sucks

That makes 8...
just keeping it real and getting close to dancing

[Commercecomet24]

That makes 8...
just keeping it real and getting close to dancing

Awesome! Keep it real Ari!

[msstate7]

We won last night, but we also lost... down 5 spots in NET to 44th. UNC is 45th... I don't like us being that close to them with them hosting Duke Saturday.

[NCMSTFAN]

We won last night, but we also lost... down 5 spots in NET to 44th. UNC is 45th... I don't like us being that close to them with them hosting Duke Saturday.

The NET crap is so annoying. We will be a 20 game or more winning team with wins against #6 Marquette, #11 TCU, Missouri, Arkansas, #25 Texas A&M. Years ago that would have been enough to get us in. Now, even in a win we drop spots.

[msstate7]

The NET crap is so annoying. We will be a 20 game or more winning team with wins against #6 Marquette, #11 TCU, Missouri, Arkansas, #25 Texas A&M. Years ago that would have been enough to get us in. Now, even in a win we drop spots.

I agree it's annoying, but other teams play too. When we jumped the other day, I'm sure someone fell even after a win.

[Quaoarsking]

The NET crap is so annoying. We will be a 20 game or more winning team with wins against #6 Marquette, #11 TCU, Missouri, Arkansas, #25 Texas A&M. Years ago that would have been enough to get us in. Now, even in a win we drop spots.

It's only because of the NET that we have a chance at all. If we were still using RPI, we'd be #53 and a real long shot to make it.

This was also true in 2019, where under the RPI we would have been a long shot bubble team, but instead got a 5 seed thanks to the NET.

[NCMSTFAN]

It's only because of the NET that we have a chance at all. If we were still using RPI, we'd be #53 and a real long shot to make it.

This was also true in 2019, where under the RPI we would have been a long shot bubble team, but instead got a 5 seed thanks to the NET.

Not back in the Stansbury days.... 20 wins in the SEC would get you in most years

[Quaoarsking]

Not back in the Stansbury days.... 20 wins in the SEC would get you in most years

If you had a good RPI. Stansbury actually had 3 teams that had 20 wins on Selection Sunday who didn't get in.

Someone should calculate historical NETs and see if any of those teams would have gotten in under the current system (which also has 3 more bids).

[NCMSTFAN]

If you had a good RPI. Stansbury actually had 3 teams that had 20 wins on Selection Sunday who didn't get in.

Someone should calculate historical NETs and see if any of those teams would have gotten in under the current system (which also has 3 more bids).

Good idea, i'd be interested in seeing the difference. I'm not spun up enough on NET and the Quad structure to be able to do it.

[Ari Gold]

I can see 1-10 very easily. Y?all need to get real? this team sucks

Well 8-3 and clearly on the bubble for the Dance.
Keep it Real RD and keep sucking

[Rawdawg]

Good idea, i'd be interested in seeing the difference. I'm not spun up enough on NET and the Quad structure to be able to do it.

https://barttorvik.com/resume-compare.php?team=Mississippi+St.&year=2023

[State82]

https://barttorvik.com/resume-compare.php?team=Mississippi+St.&year=2023

Interesting stuff right there. Good find.

[trob115]

Bump

[StarkVegasSteve]

Ari, do the post.

[Commercecomet24]

Ari, do the post.

This!

[BeardoMSU]

Ari, do the post.

Just stick it in...just the tip...just for a second...just to see what it's like***

[Ari Gold]

I can see 1-10 very easily. Y?all need to get real? this team sucks

That team that sucks plays Tuesday night in the Dance
Keeping it real RD

[Quaoarsking]

He hit the wrong key. He meant 1+10, or an 11 seed and got it right!

[StarkVegasSteve]

So strange how he disappears now that he made a $250 bet and we made the tournament.

[Tater]

So strange how he disappears now that he made a $250 bet and we made the tournament.

He and KB21 will be here if we lose though immediately.

It's one thing to complain about poor play and comment more during losses.

It's another to actively wish for it.

[Commercecomet24]

He and KB21 will be here if we lose though immediately.

It's one thing to complain about poor play and comment more during losses.

It's another to actively wish for it.

Amen brother!

[StarkVegasSteve]

He and KB21 will be here if we lose though immediately.

It's one thing to complain about poor play and comment more during losses.

It's another to actively wish for it.

A lot of times it is just people playing characters on message boards. Those two I do not think that is the case. They would much rather be right and Mississippi State suffer than be wrong and Mississippi State succeed. RD is negative about legitimately everything we do. If we put out a press release saying we had raised 50 million dollars he would somehow tie it back to Stricklin and how that is why we did not raise 51 million. Like I have no clue what Stricklin ever did to him. I mean some people do not like pineapple parties. Scott was not going to take the invite just because you asked. KB just has a lame ass shtick. There are a few people I actually suspected of being KB but he has been around GP too long for it to be those people.