Tulu to the Portal

[msstate7]

I dont think Tulu is leaving. My personal opinion

That would be big

[Homedawg]

One dimensional just makes you easier to defend.

[MrCoachKlein]

We led the country in pass attempts, but we finished #62 in total offense. We were 79th in yds/play

There's truth in there somewhere. Based on that set of data, coaches were not throwing the ball enough. Defense was spending too many resources to stop the run making the pass more viable. Now if you go to the other extreme, Leach offense, defenses are spending most of their resources stopping the pass which is why our shotgun draw play was so effective.

I think the happy medium is probably somewhere around 65% passing, but its more about taking what the defense is giving and to KB21s point, most of the time that's a pass.

[Leroy Jenkins]

I dont think Tulu is leaving. My personal opinion

Deleting his announcement is a good sign I would think.

[Todd4State]

There's truth in there somewhere. Based on that set of data, coaches were not throwing the ball enough. Defense was spending too many resources to stop the run making the pass more viable. Now if you go to the other extreme, Leach offense, defenses are spending most of their resources stopping the pass which is why our shotgun draw play was so effective.

I think the happy medium is probably somewhere around 65% passing, but its more about taking what the defense is giving and to KB21s point, most of the time that's a pass.

Yep! Plus it's a stretch at best to say that a team that runs it 55% of the time is "run heavy" when they're really balanced.

[KB21]

There's truth in there somewhere. Based on that set of data, coaches were not throwing the ball enough. Defense was spending too many resources to stop the run making the pass more viable. Now if you go to the other extreme, Leach offense, defenses are spending most of their resources stopping the pass which is why our shotgun draw play was so effective.

I think the happy medium is probably somewhere around 65% passing, but its more about taking what the defense is giving and to KB21s point, most of the time that's a pass.

An offense should not be built around the ground game at all.

[Coach34]

An offense should not be built around the ground game at all.

Yeah I remember all those Run-n-Shoot NC's and Super Bowl titles

[R2Dawg]

Yep! Plus it's a stretch at best to say that a team that runs it 55% of the time is "run heavy" when they're really balanced.

I think it is all relative. To the air raid, 55% run is run heavy. But most of the not crazy about air raid O folks have only called for a balanced approach and air raid folks go to extremes and think if you don't throw it 85% then you want to go back to wishbone.

I hope we can get back to some common sense balance on O, it appears that is the direction.

[Leroy Jenkins]

"Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad." *

[MrCoachKlein]

"Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad."

I've always hated that quote. 3 things can happen and 2 of them bad when you run too. Loss of yards, gain yards, fumble.

I think it comes down to making the defense defend the whole field regardless of approach. Advanced metrics favor the pass because most teams spend to many resources defending the run.

I like a pass 'heavy' offense, but I'd rather eat a life jacket than throw against a 3-5 man box again.

[Jack Lambert]

Good chance Tulu will come back. Most of the schools that he would be interested in probably have filled up their roster this late in the game.

[Coach34]

I think it comes down to making the defense defend the whole field regardless of approach.

This is what it's all about.

[KB21]

https://theathletic.com/980870/2019/07/26/teams-dont-have-to-establish-the-run-to-win-games-and-the-analytics-proves-it-but-the-run-isnt-dead-either/?source=user_shared_article

Passing is more efficient than running and leads to more points

The most obvious evidence that passing is more efficient than running is simply that pass attempts average more yards than run attempts. Passing attempts have increased for many reasons, including rules changes that limit contact from defensive backs and protect receivers from vicious hits.

[KB21]

https://www.hawkblogger.com/2017/09/relationship-passing-rushing.html

After removing 4th quarter runs, the total number of rushes only explains 2% of the variance in QBR. That?s very small, and means there?s effectively no relationship between how often a team runs and their QBR.

So what does this mean? First, QB play is extremely important to winning games. Second, there is very little to show that a team?s success in the running game influences QB play. And if running doesn?t help you pass, then running does very little to help you win. The conventional wisdom that teams should establish the running game or maintain some kind run/pass balance does not appear to be supported by evidence. Which isn?t to say that teams shouldn?t run. Rushing is helpful in goal line situations and in running out the clock at the end of the game. But in 2016, teams averaged almost 3 more yards per pass attempt (7.1) than per rush attempt (4.3). Meaning that, outside of obvious running situations, teams should likely be looking to pass even more.

[msstate7]

https://theathletic.com/980870/2019/07/26/teams-dont-have-to-establish-the-run-to-win-games-and-the-analytics-proves-it-but-the-run-isnt-dead-either/?source=user_shared_article

Passing is more efficient than running and leads to more points

The most obvious evidence that passing is more efficient than running is simply that pass attempts average more yards than run attempts. Passing attempts have increased for many reasons, including rules changes that limit contact from defensive backs and protect receivers from vicious hits.

App state was much better than us in yds/play.

We were 11th in sec in yds/play overall, and we were 13th in sec in yds/play conf games. I don't get it... we passed more than anyone in sec and the whole country

[KB21]

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/1/3/16808842/seahawks-establish-the-run-myth-nfl-analytics

[StarkVegasSteve]

App state was much better than us in yds/play.

We were 11th in sec in yds/play overall, and we were 13th in sec in yds/play conf games. I don't get it... we passed more than anyone in sec and the whole country

It is very easy. We had a QB who could not or would not throw deep. When you take that out of a predominantly pass heavy offense then the offense grinds to a halt.

[KB21]

App state was much better than us in yds/play.

We were 11th in sec in yds/play overall, and we were 13th in sec in yds/play conf games. I don't get it... we passed more than anyone in sec and the whole country

How many points did we score against TAMU, and how many did App State score against them?

You are trying to compare what they did vs Sun Belt competition where they had a talent advantage to what we did against sec competition when we had a talent deficiency against most of our opponents.

[msstate7]

It is very easy. We had a QB who could not or would not throw deep. When you take that out of a predominantly pass heavy offense then the offense grinds to a halt.

In top 10 nationally in yds/play, only 3 (Ohio st, Washington, and usc) were pass heavy

[msstate7]

How many points did we score against TAMU, and how many did App State score against them?

You are trying to compare what they did vs Sun Belt competition where they had a talent advantage to what we did against sec competition when we had a talent deficiency against most of our opponents.

Did app st play them with sec talent?

Tenn was the best offense in the sec and the country, and they ran the ball 55% of the time.

[KB21]

delete

[msstate7]

delete

Why do you keep using nfl articles in a college discussion?

[Leroy Jenkins]

I've always hated that quote. 3 things can happen and 2 of them bad when you run too. Loss of yards, gain yards, fumble.

I think it comes down to making the defense defend the whole field regardless of approach. Advanced metrics favor the pass because most teams spend to many resources defending the run.

I like a pass 'heavy' offense, but I'd rather eat a life jacket than throw against a 3-5 man box again.


Get off my lawn.

[Coach34]

https://theathletic.com/980870/2019/07/26/teams-dont-have-to-establish-the-run-to-win-games-and-the-analytics-proves-it-but-the-run-isnt-dead-either/?source=user_shared_article

Passing is more efficient than running and leads to more points

The most obvious evidence that passing is more efficient than running is simply that pass attempts average more yards than run attempts. Passing attempts have increased for many reasons, including rules changes that limit contact from defensive backs and protect receivers from vicious hits.

Nobody is arguing against throwing the ball. Nobody wants to become Army or Navy. But teams that are balanced are more successful offensively.

Top 5 Scoring teams:

Tenn- 523 runs/422 passes
Ohio State 466 runs/410 passes
USC 473 runs/ 515 passes
Georgia 557 runs/492 passes
Bammer 457 runs/438 passes

Balance is the key

[Homedawg]

Did app st play them with sec talent?

Tenn was the best offense in the sec and the country, and they ran the ball 55% of the time.

I hate it when facts get in the way of a good argument!!!

[Coach34]

In top 10 nationally in yds/play, only 3 (Ohio st, Washington, and usc) were pass heavy

in a conference that doesnt play defense

[Really Clark?]

How many points did we score against TAMU, and how many did App State score against them?

You are trying to compare what they did vs Sun Belt competition where they had a talent advantage to what we did against sec competition when we had a talent deficiency against most of our opponents.

App St also score 61 vs another P5 school. So with talent disadvantages they average 39 points per game. Add in his 2 CMU years that's 4 P5 games where he averaged 30.75 points per game. With noticeable talent disadvantage.

[msstate7]

Nobody is arguing against throwing the ball. Nobody wants to become Army or Navy. But teams that are balanced are more successful offensively.

Top 5 Scoring teams:

Tenn- 523 runs/422 passes
Ohio State 466 runs/410 passes
USC 473 runs/ 515 passes
Georgia 557 runs/492 passes
Bammer 457 runs/438 passes

Balance is the key

Your last sentence nails it. Around 55/45 tops either way should be the goal. The defense will be off guard

[MrCoachKlein]

https://theathletic.com/980870/2019/07/26/teams-dont-have-to-establish-the-run-to-win-games-and-the-analytics-proves-it-but-the-run-isnt-dead-either/?source=user_shared_article

Passing is more efficient than running and leads to more points

The most obvious evidence that passing is more efficient than running is simply that pass attempts average more yards than run attempts. Passing attempts have increased for many reasons, including rules changes that limit contact from defensive backs and protect receivers from vicious hits.

I'm with you, but there's still something lost when you go full passing.

Some things that analytics can't analyze:

Imposing your will on the defense. There's something to be said from a toughness standpoint of telling them you're gonna run them over then doing it.

It helps your OL in 2 ways. 1 they're typically bigger, so they can beat up the DL going forward vs a passive passing set. This wears out the D in the 4th. 2: It changes the way the d line plays. If they 'pin ears back' and run upfield they'll give up a huge run. Without that threat they pass rush every play.

It's demoralizing. 70 yard pass play feels like 'yeah well they got lucky'. Giving up 10 7 yard runs in a row feels like you're getting your ass kicked.

[MrCoachKlein]

Get off my lawn.

Lmao. Made me want to go watch Grand Torino

[KB21]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/defense-and-rest-time

Why is the myth that a running game can help a defense so prevalent? I suspect that a contributing factor is the conflation of pace effects (in which defenses allow fewer points if they take the field on fewer drives) with actual changes in defensive efficiency. If two teams possess the ball an equal number of times, there is nothing inherently valuable about making the other team possess the ball fewer times, because your own team will also possess the ball fewer times (unless, perhaps, an underdog is pursuing a high-variance strategy). In the end, barring defensive or special teams scores, the team with more points per drive will win, whether there are a lot of drives or few drives. But there is no evidence that time of possession helps a defense perform better when it is on the field.

[msstate7]

Probably worth noting that personnel matters. If you have Patrick Mahomes or Bryce young, sure throw heavy. If you have an avg qb, passing heavy probably isn't such a great idea

[StarkVegasSteve]

Probably worth noting that personnel matters. If you have Patrick Mahomes or Bryce young, sure throw heavy. If you have an avg qb, passing heavy probably isn't such a great idea

Yea that is a point I was trying to make in my post, probably could have worded it better. The reason pass heavy offenses are not always in the top 10 is that without an NFL talent at QB (Mahomes, Williams, Hurts, Stroud, etc) you will not succeed because you have to have that big arm to push the ball. It opens up everything underneath. Also does not hurt to have elite speed at WR.

[Quaoarsking]

In top 10 nationally in yds/play, only 3 (Ohio st, Washington, and usc) were pass heavy

What about over the last 10 years? Was 2022 typical?

What if you adjust for passes to the RBs and count those as runs (some of them essentially are)? Is "balance" best determined by a simple pass vs. run, or by dividing the field into sections and balancing where the the ball is put?

[msstate7]

What about over the last 10 years? Was 2022 typical?

What if you adjust for passes to the RBs and count those as runs (some of them essentially are)? Is "balance" best determined by a simple pass vs. run, or by dividing the field into sections and balancing where the the ball is put?

That sounds like a good project for you, Q. Let me and the board know

[MrCoachKlein]

What about over the last 10 years? Was 2022 typical?

What if you adjust for passes to the RBs and count those as runs (some of them essentially are)? Is "balance" best determined by a simple pass vs. run, or by dividing the field into sections and balancing where the the ball is put?

While we're at it, let's adjust for talent between teams. UGA could run it 100% of the time and probably not lose a game. Their OL is so good it doesn't matter

[msstate7]

While we're at it, let's adjust for talent between teams. UGA could run it 100% of the time and probably not lose a game. Their OL is so good it doesn't matter

So basically you're saying the scheme matters less than the talent? I agree with that

[MrCoachKlein]

So basically you're saying the scheme matters less than the talent? I agree with that

100%. I still believe that passing is ultimately more effective than running.

Like everything else in life there are caveats. If you throw 95% of the time like leach it starts to swing back to running being more effective. It's all about doing what the defense isn't looking for. In this day and age that usually means setting up a run game with your pass game.

I'm happy with the Barbary hire. I think he was the best available after briles rejected us. I love that hell run 50 times one game then throw 50 another. I'm a fan of taking what is given vs forcing a pass or run to establish your offense.

[Coach34]

Is there a P5 school thats 2/3 pass to run in the top 40 of the country?

[MrCoachKlein]

Is there a P5 school thats 2/3 pass to run in the top 40 of the country?

Where's pain prediction when you need him.

[msstate7]

Is there a P5 school thats 2/3 pass to run in the top 40 of the country?

Georgia southern at 62% passing at 19th nationally in total offense is the closest. I think

[MrCoachKlein]

That 3rd and 1 30 yard pass to mark Andrews was a perfect example of passing being a more effective tool if you have the balls. Run it you likely get it and a couple yards. Throw it 1 on 1 they get 30 yards. Could've been dropped and go to 4th, but D gave them the pass look and they had the stones to take the risk.

ETA: the reward outweighs the risk most of the time when it comes to passing IMO

[Really Clark?]

Is there a P5 school thats 2/3 pass to run in the top 40 of the country?

I don't see any. Even most pass first teams are less than 60%. Heck Texas Tech with Kittley was 52/48 pass to run.

[Really Clark?]

Georgia southern at 62% passing at 19th nationally in total offense is the closest. I think

They are not P5 though, that's what he was asking. I think Washington was the highest throwing percentage at 59% of Top 40 scoring teams of P5 teams.

[msstate7]

They are not P5 though, that's what he was asking. I think Washington was the highest throwing percentage at 59% of Top 40 scoring teams of P5 teams.

Reading comprehension isn't my strong point

[Really Clark?]

Reading comprehension isn't my strong point

Lol. I knew you had just mis-read it.

[Todd4State]

While we're at it, let's adjust for talent between teams. UGA could run it 100% of the time and probably not lose a game. Their OL is so good it doesn't matter

Even a school like Georgia I believe they were like 45% pass and 55% run and that's with a walk-on QB essentially. The significance there to me is if this was 1996 they would probably be more like 40% pass and 60% run or even 35/65.

The game and the thought process of coaches has been slowly shifting to where the only teams that are truly run heavy are the service academies and most teams are now pretty balanced. Other than the service academies the vast majority of the other "run heavy" teams are at like 39% pass and 61% run.

In the NFL the run pass ratio is 55% and 45% run and this year there were only 6 teams that fell below 50% and four of those 6 were at 48% or better. I think as you see more NFL coaches come to the SEC and college you are going to continue to see a gradual shift towards passing. The best thing I liked about hiring Leach is he showed that we could pass the ball here. If nothing else.

[SPMT]

Y?all are picking the fly shit out of the pepper.

Short pass or run. Same thing.

Risk is the key factory, what can be executed best is the question. That?s dependent on team strength.

[bulldawg28]

100%. I still believe that passing is ultimately more effective than running.

Like everything else in life there are caveats. If you throw 95% of the time like leach it starts to swing back to running being more effective. It's all about doing what the defense isn't looking for. In this day and age that usually means setting up a run game with your pass game.

I'm happy with the Barbary hire. I think he was the best available after briles rejected us. I love that hell run 50 times one game then throw 50 another. I'm a fan of taking what is given vs forcing a pass or run to establish your offense.

I 1000% agree. Find what's working and keep doing it until they make you stop.

[Leroy Jenkins]

Why are these kids so thirsty for attention? Everything needs to be an announcement or some other production, just make a decision and keep moving. These football players need more drama and attention than a 16 year old girl.

[Tater]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/defense-and-rest-time

Why is the myth that a running game can help a defense so prevalent? I suspect that a contributing factor is the conflation of pace effects (in which defenses allow fewer points if they take the field on fewer drives) with actual changes in defensive efficiency. If two teams possess the ball an equal number of times, there is nothing inherently valuable about making the other team possess the ball fewer times, because your own team will also possess the ball fewer times (unless, perhaps, an underdog is pursuing a high-variance strategy). In the end, barring defensive or special teams scores, the team with more points per drive will win, whether there are a lot of drives or few drives. But there is no evidence that time of possession helps a defense perform better when it is on the field.

As a stat nerd myself... there are still things you can't quantify in football perfectly.

This is one. But a simple way to look at it is this. If there are fewer drives / plays in a game... then the team with a lower point per drive / play has a higher chance of winning. Variability comes into play.

[HancockCountyDog]

So this thread has gone off the rails.

Tulu is supposed to announce something today. Anyone hearing anything?

[Msujd164]

I haven?t but a lot of our players on twitter seem excited about something this morning. Simply tweeting a lot of emojis. Will tweeted a cloud of dust.

[RockyDog]

Y?all are picking the fly shit out of the pepper.

Short pass or run. Same thing.

Risk is the key factory, what can be executed best is the question. That?s dependent on team strength.

People keep saying that, but it does not equal the same thing. The only similarity is that it involves Will Rogers and the RB (Marks or Dillon).
Other than that, you are talking handing the ball off to the guy 1 foot away from you vs throwing the ball 10-15 yards away. There's obviously more risk to putting the ball in the air. Too many bad things can happen vs handing the ball to a back.

Secondly, the blocking is totally different. A handoff behind the line of scrimmage and 6 lineman is NOT the same as throwing to a back who at most has 2 WR blocking (and most likely whiffing) in front of him and THEN asking him to make the first guy miss. How many times did Marks NOT have the guy miss his first season?

Just because the ball touches the same player's hands does not mean those plays are equal to each other.

[Ari Gold]

Don?t be shocked if he removes his name before Jan 18
Enjoy the weekend ,

Bump

[Leroy Jenkins]

Tulu is going to OM and I would imagine there's one more receiver that will follow him.

Rep

[KB21]

People keep saying that, but it does not equal the same thing. The only similarity is that it involves Will Rogers and the RB (Marks or Dillon).
Other than that, you are talking handing the ball off to the guy 1 foot away from you vs throwing the ball 10-15 yards away. There's obviously more risk to putting the ball in the air. Too many bad things can happen vs handing the ball to a back.

Secondly, the blocking is totally different. A handoff behind the line of scrimmage and 6 lineman is NOT the same as throwing to a back who at most has 2 WR blocking (and most likely whiffing) in front of him and THEN asking him to make the first guy miss. How many times did Marks NOT have the guy miss his first season?

Just because the ball touches the same player's hands does not mean those plays are equal to each other.

LOL!

[StarkVegasSteve]

I'm glad to say I was completely wrong on this. I'll go ahead and tell you the other name was Justin Robinson. Some of the stuff his dad was posting on GP had me worried. And I know OM wanted him a well. They thought they had Tulu in the bag on Friday.

[RisperDawg]

I'm glad to say I was completely wrong on this. I'll go ahead and tell you the other name was Justin Robinson. Some of the stuff his dad was posting on GP had me worried. And I know OM wanted him a well. They thought they had Tulu in the bag on Friday.

Isn't Robinson ineligible to transfer since he already did so from UGA to us?

[StarkVegasSteve]

Isn't Robinson ineligible to transfer since he already did so from UGA to us?

Coaching change. He would have applied for a waiver and gotten it.

[BankerDog]

Coaching change. He would have applied for a waiver and gotten it.

Wouldn?t have mattered-we would?ve gotten the next best thing from Carrol Academy or MRA!! Gotta lock down those MS skill position kids.

[Leroy Jenkins]

Coaching change. He would have applied for a waiver and gotten it.

NCAA just voted last week to limit 2nd time transfers to specific extenuating circumstances. Like mental/sexual abuse etc. because the portal is out of control.