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Coach34
01-12-2023, 10:59 AM
2022 App State:

23rd in the country in Scoring
21st in the country in rushing
48th in the country in passing

That's a good offense folks

2021 Central Michigan:

35th in Scoring
51st in rushing
36th in Pass O

Solid hire

Commercecomet24
01-12-2023, 11:04 AM
Yeah I like what i see in this guy. Seems very balanced and doesn't run the qb. And his offenses are very efficient.

mo7888
01-12-2023, 11:07 AM
Yeah I like what i see in this guy. Seems very balanced and doesn't run the qb. And his offenses are very efficient.

I don't...With this wasted season coming up (JoMo's 1st basically) I just hope we can have the same level of success with OM as Jo did..maybe we can win a couple more egg bowls before we have a regime change..

Very down on this hire and Arnett by extension...

Coach34
01-12-2023, 11:09 AM
I don't...With this wasted season coming up (JoMo's 1st basically) I just hope we can have the same level of success with OM as Jo did..maybe we can win a couple more egg bowls before we have a regime change..

Very down on this hire and Arnett by extension...

Shame on Arnett for hiring a top OC the last 2 seasons

dawgday166
01-12-2023, 11:10 AM
Seems to be a Jim McElwain disciple. Mac didn't do too hot at FL ... in 2015 FL was 12th in SEC in Total O, in 2016 they were last. I'll wait and see but right now I'm thinking this is a BIG change in philosophy and we sho ain't running 52 times against a GA & Bama and winning a football game. And to add to this ... there's a reason Saban got away from Mac's style of offense.

We'll see what happens but right now I don't think we have the personnel to make the transition well next year unless we really hit the portal hard.

Commercecomet24
01-12-2023, 11:10 AM
I don't...With this wasted season coming up (JoMo's 1st basically) I just hope we can have the same level of success with OM as Jo did..maybe we can win a couple more egg bowls before we have a regime change..

Very down on this hire and Arnett by extension...

Well we'll just have to agree to disagree. I loved Mike Leach and always have but we needed more balance and even Leach knew that. This is a good hire, but I respect your opinion and let's see how it plays out.

TrapGame
01-12-2023, 11:11 AM
I don't...With this wasted season coming up (JoMo's 1st basically) I just hope we can have the same level of success with OM as Jo did..maybe we can win a couple more egg bowls before we have a regime change..

Very down on this hire and Arnett by extension...

JoMo was stubborn and hardheaded. Let's hold off on the comparison until we actually see the product on the field.

TrapGame
01-12-2023, 11:12 AM
Seems to be a Jim McElwain disciple. Mac didn't do too hot at FL ... in 2015 FL was 12th in SEC in Total O, in 2016 they were last. I'll wait and see but right now I'm thinking this is a BIG change in philosophy and we sho ain't running 52 times against a GA & Bama and winning a football game. And to add to this ... there's a reason Saban got away from Mac's style of offense.

We'll see what happens but right now I don't think we have the personnel to make the transition well next year unless we really hit the portal hard.

Well, ain't nobody been doing too hot at Florida lately. So....

Commercecomet24
01-12-2023, 11:13 AM
Well, ain't nobody been doing too hot at Florida lately. So....

lol yeah outisde of ******* year with trask and pitts florida offenses haven't burned it up since Urban left.

dawgday166
01-12-2023, 11:14 AM
Well, ain't nobody been doing too hot at Florida lately. So....

Mullen actually did alright till he blew up his last year. Didn't beat Ga but nobody does. Right now I'm leaning towards I'd rather have hired Mullen back. I'll be open minded and wait & see.

ETA: And Mullen took Bama to the brink his last year at FL too ... before the rest of season crashed and burned.

mo7888
01-12-2023, 11:15 AM
Shame on Arnett for hiring a top OC the last 2 seasons

Oh please...we've seen this offense before and it doesn't work here...it's not an awful floor...we should do jomo numbers but it's an abysmal ceiling.... you'll be whining for something else (run centric) in two years and you know it..

BlackSailsDawg
01-12-2023, 11:15 AM
Seems to be a Jim McElwain disciple. Mac didn't do too hot at FL ... in 2015 FL was 12th in SEC in Total O, in 2016 they were last. I'll wait and see but right now I'm thinking this is a BIG change in philosophy and we sho ain't running 52 times against a GA & Bama and winning a football game. And to add to this ... there's a reason Saban got away from Mac's style of offense.

We'll see what happens but right now I don't think we have the personnel to make the transition well next year unless we really hit the portal hard.

A lot to be concerned about. But he will have his shot and my support.

DEDawg
01-12-2023, 11:16 AM
So regarding app state, what does their talent look like compared to the rest of the sun belt? Is he doing less with more there?

BlackSailsDawg
01-12-2023, 11:16 AM
JoMo was stubborn and hardheaded. Let's hold off on the comparison until we actually see the product on the field.

2 years from now, when the vets are gone. We are going to see what's up.

mo7888
01-12-2023, 11:17 AM
Well we'll just have to agree to disagree. I loved Mike Leach and always have but we needed more balance and even Leach knew that. This is a good hire, but I respect your opinion and let's see how it plays out.

ML absolutely knew that...you could see it in his recruiting and we were heading in that direction...we should have continued in that direction too... I'm gonna say 7 wins next season..

dawgday166
01-12-2023, 11:18 AM
So regarding app state, what does their talent look like compared to the rest of the sun belt? Is he doing less with more there?

Check his losses out. He has some under 300 yds/game too. Not sure how the overall competition really compares tho. Hope I'm wrong but this do feel sorta like a JoMo hire to me some.

mo7888
01-12-2023, 11:18 AM
Well, ain't nobody been doing too hot at Florida lately. So....

Weren't they in the seccg thecseason before last?

Jarius
01-12-2023, 11:19 AM
2022 App State:

23rd in the country in Scoring
21st in the country in rushing
48th in the country in passing

That's a good offense folks

2021 Central Michigan:

35th in Scoring
51st in rushing
36th in Pass O

Solid hire

This is a hell of a hire by Arnett. The people in here complaining about how he has run his search are clueless. He just made a bunch of really good hires. Our future is as bright as it has ever been at Mississippi State.

William Tecumsah Sherman
01-12-2023, 11:21 AM
He?s a McElwain disciple about like Riley and Dykes are Leach disciples.

mo7888
01-12-2023, 11:22 AM
This is a hell of a hire by Arnett. The people in here complaining about how he has run his search are clueless. He just made a bunch of really good hires. Our future is as bright as it has ever been at Mississippi State.

Lol... Every hire so far was lateral at best with the exception of Turner.... and we've seen this Offense before and it didn't work with a blue blood but you think it's gonna work here... uh huh...

PikeDawg15
01-12-2023, 11:23 AM
I?m talking to my southern miss friends currently about this hire because they watched a lot of sun belt football

They said this is a very bad hire. They said he very much underperformed with a 6th year senior QB and struggled to put up points against sun belt teams and stat padded against FCS opponents

I do not think will rogers can run this offense so we will be in the market for a transfer QB , I wish we could make an accommodation for Grayson Mccall?s horrible academics.

I?m currently looking into his history and last season his offense averaged between 28-24 points against sun belt conference teams.

If he can do that in the sec , we will be about 8-4 next year because his offense can run the clock out and help our defense.

I really don?t know what to say from this hire but swinging and Kendall briles to settle for the 1st year OC at app state ain?t flashy.

msstate7
01-12-2023, 11:23 AM
App st lead the sunbelt in 40+ yard passes. We bout to see what Will's arm has

msu15
01-12-2023, 11:24 AM
App st lead the sunbelt in 40+ yard passes. We bout to see what Will's arm has

Play action game baby

Coach34
01-12-2023, 11:25 AM
App st lead the sunbelt in 40+ yard passes. We bout to see what Will's arm has

Yes. QB has to throw it deep in this offense

msstate7
01-12-2023, 11:25 AM
I?m talking to my southern miss friends currently about this hire because they watched a lot of sun belt football

They said this is a very bad hire. They said he very much underperformed with a 6th year senior QB and struggled to put up points against sun belt teams and stat padded against FCS opponents

I do not think will rogers can run this offense so we will be in the market for a transfer QB , I wish we could make an accommodation for Grayson Mccall?s horrible academics.

I?m currently looking into his history and last season his offense averaged between 28-24 points against sun belt conference teams.

If he can do that in the sec , we will be about 8-4 next year because his offense can run the clock out and help our defense.

I really don?t know what to say from this hire but swinging and Kendall briles to settle for the 1st year OC at app state ain?t flashy.

App state was 2nd in scoring in conf only games. They were 3rd in total off in conf games only

dawgday166
01-12-2023, 11:26 AM
I?m talking to my southern miss friends currently about this hire because they watched a lot of sun belt football

They said this is a very bad hire. They said he very much underperformed with a 6th year senior QB and struggled to put up points against sun belt teams and stat padded against FCS opponents

I do not think will rogers can run this offense so we will be in the market for a transfer QB , I wish we could make an accommodation for Grayson Mccall?s horrible academics.

I?m currently looking into his history and last season his offense averaged between 28-24 points against sun belt conference teams.

If he can do that in the sec , we will be about 8-4 next year because his offense can run the clock out and help our defense.

I really don?t know what to say from this hire but swinging and Kendall briles to settle for the 1st year OC at app state ain?t flashy.

I tend to agree with this. Of course everytime we hire someone it's the best hire ever (with the exception of Leach who sucked), and when OM hires someone it's the worst hire ever.

Well ... everyone wanted to tear the Air Raid down and start over. Seems like they probably got their wish. We'll see how it works out now.

Jarius
01-12-2023, 11:29 AM
I?m talking to my southern miss friends currently about this hire because they watched a lot of sun belt football

They said this is a very bad hire. They said he very much underperformed with a 6th year senior QB and struggled to put up points against sun belt teams and stat padded against FCS opponents

I do not think will rogers can run this offense so we will be in the market for a transfer QB , I wish we could make an accommodation for Grayson Mccall?s horrible academics.

I?m currently looking into his history and last season his offense averaged between 28-24 points against sun belt conference teams.

If he can do that in the sec , we will be about 8-4 next year because his offense can run the clock out and help our defense.

I really don?t know what to say from this hire but swinging and Kendall briles to settle for the 1st year OC at app state ain?t flashy.

Your USM fan buddies are wrong. A simple google search proves all of that is false.

parabrave
01-12-2023, 11:29 AM
I?m talking to my southern miss friends currently about this hire because they watched a lot of sun belt football

They said this is a very bad hire. They said he very much underperformed with a 6th year senior QB and struggled to put up points against sun belt teams and stat padded against FCS opponents

I do not think will rogers can run this offense so we will be in the market for a transfer QB , I wish we could make an accommodation for Grayson Mccall?s horrible academics.

I?m currently looking into his history and last season his offense averaged between 28-24 points against sun belt conference teams.

If he can do that in the sec , we will be about 8-4 next year because his offense can run the clock out and help our defense.

I really don?t know what to say from this hire but swinging and Kendall briles to settle for the 1st year OC at app state ain?t flashy.

And you actually found more than 3 USM "fans"??

Really Clark?
01-12-2023, 11:29 AM
I?m talking to my southern miss friends currently about this hire because they watched a lot of sun belt football

They said this is a very bad hire. They said he very much underperformed with a 6th year senior QB and struggled to put up points against sun belt teams and stat padded against FCS opponents

I do not think will rogers can run this offense so we will be in the market for a transfer QB , I wish we could make an accommodation for Grayson Mccall?s horrible academics.

I?m currently looking into his history and last season his offense averaged between 28-24 points against sun belt conference teams.

If he can do that in the sec , we will be about 8-4 next year because his offense can run the clock out and help our defense.

I really don?t know what to say from this hire but swinging and Kendall briles to settle for the 1st year OC at app state ain?t flashy.

Stopped reading after Southern Miss Fan...go look at the numbers for his conference games yourself.

Coach34
01-12-2023, 11:30 AM
https://twitter.com/cfbmatrix/status/1613559122888359936?s=21&t=ETHvI8G9fZ6ESVjj37s1OA

That’s impressive

Eric Nies Grind Time
01-12-2023, 11:32 AM
I?m talking to my southern miss friends currently about this hire because they watched a lot of sun belt football

They said this is a very bad hire. They said he very much underperformed with a 6th year senior QB and struggled to put up points against sun belt teams and stat padded against FCS opponents

I do not think will rogers can run this offense so we will be in the market for a transfer QB , I wish we could make an accommodation for Grayson Mccall?s horrible academics.

I?m currently looking into his history and last season his offense averaged between 28-24 points against sun belt conference teams.

If he can do that in the sec , we will be about 8-4 next year because his offense can run the clock out and help our defense.

I really don?t know what to say from this hire but swinging and Kendall briles to settle for the 1st year OC at app state ain?t flashy.

App State was second in ppg in conference with 31.3 ppg. What are your friends talking about?

Eric Nies Grind Time
01-12-2023, 11:35 AM
Damn, that is impressive. Hope we get some quality TE transfers.

parabrave
01-12-2023, 11:38 AM
Bet Woody and Price are stoked.

Hot Rock
01-12-2023, 11:38 AM
This is what all the run more people wanted and it still has passing efficient stats.

For the Air Raid lovers, including me. Leach was the only guy running it successfully the way he ran it. Everyone had changed it to be their own version. Even he was trying to get more mobile at QB and run more. What people had missed that he was constantly tweaking it himself.

You aren't getting Leach back, this looks like one of the best not so young OC's out there. A guy with experience and up ang coming, not a retread. Passing efficiency off the charts with a run game to boot.

Good hire by Arnett in my humble not so expert opinion.

bulldawg28
01-12-2023, 11:40 AM
I love the hire! This is something our fans can get excited about.

Commercecomet24
01-12-2023, 11:42 AM
I love the hire! This is something our fans can get excited about.

Well most of us anyways, lol!

State82
01-12-2023, 11:45 AM
https://twitter.com/cfbmatrix/status/1613559122888359936?s=21&t=ETHvI8G9fZ6ESVjj37s1OA

That’s impressive

Yeah I heard Bartoo this morning on Bounds' show. He got him on the phone just before the show went off and right after the announcement of the hire. Bartoo said he likes the hire and ran down all those stats on the radio.

TrapGame
01-12-2023, 11:45 AM
https://twitter.com/cfbmatrix/status/1613559122888359936?s=21&t=ETHvI8G9fZ6ESVjj37s1OA

That’s impressive

Strong hire. Anybody saying otherwise is a football idiot.

Homedawg
01-12-2023, 11:46 AM
Lol... Every hire so far was lateral at best with the exception of Turner.... and we've seen this Offense before and it didn't work with a blue blood but you think it's gonna work here... uh huh...

And neither did CML. Maybe it's bc of Jimmy's and Joe's ....

State82
01-12-2023, 11:48 AM
Stopped reading after Southern Miss Fan

Yeah that's an automatic disqualification if it regards football opinions.

Coach34
01-12-2023, 11:51 AM
And neither did CML. Maybe it's bc of Jimmy's and Joe's ....

Leach's offense didnt work at State. Leach was 13th, 9th, and 8th in the SEC in Scoring. I'm trying to understand the logic of some of these people. Makes no sense

Here's some reality:

The "Holloway up the middle" offense was better than any offense Leach had at State

Jarius
01-12-2023, 11:54 AM
Leach's offense didnt work at State. Leach was 13th, 9th, and 8th in the SEC in Scoring. I'm trying to understand the logic of some of these people. Makes no sense

Here's some reality:

The "Holloway up the middle" offense was better than any offense Leach had at State

It’s unbelievable. They keep giving the wins to the offense as if Arnett and the defense didn’t repeatedly save our ass during that entire tenure. Anyone who thinks we are going to find a magic offense to consistently beat Alabama and Georgia is kidding themselves, but this gives us a chance to maximize what we are able to recruit offensively.

Commercecomet24
01-12-2023, 11:57 AM
In this day and age you have to have a very good pass game to be successful, no matter what shape or form that is. Barbays offense gives us a very effective pass game that should be more explosive. He runs the ball more, yes, but his passing game has been excellent.

HoopsDawg
01-12-2023, 11:58 AM
Yeah I like what i see in this guy. Seems very balanced and doesn't run the qb. And his offenses are very efficient.

I think you need to run the QB though. Especially in a run heavy offense

Jarius
01-12-2023, 12:00 PM
In this day and age you have to have a very good pass game to be successful, no matter what shape or form that is. Barbays offense gives us a very effective pass game that should be more explosive. He runs the ball more, yes, but his passing game has been excellent.

This is the best thing that could have happened for Will Rogers. He desperately needed a running game to take the pressure off of him from having to carry the offense. He’s not built to be a guy to throw it 60 times a game and have everything on his shoulders. He was at his best when we ran the football effectively. I suspect he will be ok in this offense.

MrCoachKlein
01-12-2023, 12:02 PM
This is the best thing that could have happened for Will Rogers. He desperately needed a running game to take the pressure off of him from having to carry the offense. He’s not built to be a guy to throw it 60 times a game and have everything on his shoulders. He was at his best when we ran the football effectively. I suspect he will be ok in this offense.

I wonder if Will has the arm for all of the deep shots Barbay calls.

HoopsDawg
01-12-2023, 12:02 PM
This is the best thing that could have happened for Will Rogers. He desperately needed a running game to take the pressure off of him from having to carry the offense. He’s not built to be a guy to throw it 60 times a game and have everything on his shoulders. He was at his best when we ran the football effectively. I suspect he will be ok in this offense.

I think the Leach Air Raid was the perfect offense for Will.

Prediction? Pain.
01-12-2023, 12:12 PM
Leach's offense didnt work at State. Leach was 13th, 9th, and 8th in the SEC in Scoring. I'm trying to understand the logic of some of these people. Makes no sense

Here's some reality:

The "Holloway up the middle" offense was better than any offense Leach had at State

If by "didn't work," you mean "was in the top third of the SEC in scoring offense, total offense, and 3rd down conversion % in SEC games in Year 2," then you're absolutely right.

Yeah, we dropped off some in Year 3, but we were weren't so bad that it "didn't work." I posted a bunch of stuff yesterday about how we were still roughly at or just below middle-of-the-pack in the SEC in several metrics.

Also, "Holloway up the middle" scoring offense in SEC games: 6th in the SEC. Airbone 2021 scoring offense in SEC games: 5th in the SEC.

But that last point is misleading. Dak's senior-season offense was better than Will's sophomore-season offense in many ways. 16th in F+ offense vs. 27th. Granted, the 27th ranking in Leach's second season was higher than every offense Mullen fielded at State other than '14 and '15, but whatever.

No need to bash Leach at this point. Arnett's got his man and I'm stoked to see what he does here.

Jarius
01-12-2023, 12:15 PM
I think the Leach Air Raid was the perfect offense for Will.

He needs a running game that didn’t exist in that offense. He can’t be expected to carry everything. He’s not that talented.

Santiago
01-12-2023, 12:19 PM
Seems to be a Jim McElwain disciple. Mac didn't do too hot at FL ... in 2015 FL was 12th in SEC in Total O, in 2016 they were last. I'll wait and see but right now I'm thinking this is a BIG change in philosophy and we sho ain't running 52 times against a GA & Bama and winning a football game. And to add to this ... there's a reason Saban got away from Mac's style of offense.

We'll see what happens but right now I don't think we have the personnel to make the transition well next year unless we really hit the portal hard.

To be fair, Florida is chewing up several coaches these days where they do not look at Florida how they were prior. They have more issues going on there and it spans several coaches.

dawgday166
01-12-2023, 12:20 PM
If by "didn't work," you mean "was in the top third of the SEC in scoring offense, total offense, and 3rd down conversion % in SEC games in Year 2," then you're absolutely right.

Yeah, we dropped off some in Year 3, but we were weren't so bad that it "didn't work." I posted a bunch of stuff yesterday about how we were still roughly at or just below middle-of-the-pack in the SEC in several metrics.

Also, "Holloway up the middle" scoring offense in SEC games: 6th in the SEC. Airbone 2021 scoring offense in SEC games: 5th in the SEC.

But that last point is misleading. Dak's senior-season offense was better than Will's sophomore-season offense in many ways. 16th in F+ offense vs. 27th. Granted, the 27th ranking in Leach's second season was higher than every offense Mullen fielded at State other than '14 and '15, but whatever.

No need to bash Leach at this point. Arnett's got his man and I'm stoked to see what he does here.

Naw man ... Leach sucked and his offense was never gonna work here. IMO ... Will got gun shy and was in too big a hurry to get rid of the ball this year vs last year. JMHO tho. Long term ... I think Leach's offense would've been pretty good but ... whatever.

You got any advanced stats on new guy? Surely you ain't got nothing else to do today at work do you LOL. Would appreciate it if you took the time to throw some out here too.

Coach34
01-12-2023, 12:20 PM
If by "didn't work," you mean "was in the top third of the SEC in scoring offense, total offense, and 3rd down conversion % in SEC games in Year 2," then you're absolutely right.


We were 9th in the SEC in Scoring O in Y2 of Leach. That's the bottom line. So no- that's "not working" to most people.

2015's Holloway up the middle was 5th in the SEC. So Holloway Up the Middle > Any Leach O at State

Coach34
01-12-2023, 12:22 PM
You got any advanced stats on new guy? Surely you ain't got nothing else to do today at work do you LOL. Would appreciate it if you took the time to throw some out here too.

Bartoo has tweeted a bunch of those out showing we have hired one of the OC's of the last 13 years

dawgday166
01-12-2023, 12:24 PM
Bartoo has tweeted a bunch of those out showing we have hired one of the OC's of the last 13 years

Bartoo thought JoMo was a HR hire. I trust Pain way more than Bartoo.

msstate7
01-12-2023, 12:25 PM
Bartoo thought JoMo was a HR hire. I trust Pain way more than Bartoo.

Pain liked Moorhead too

BlackSailsDawg
01-12-2023, 12:26 PM
In this day and age you have to have a very good pass game to be successful, no matter what shape or form that is. Barbays offense gives us a very effective pass game that should be more explosive. He runs the ball more, yes, but his passing game has been excellent.

So long as we can recruit for it.

dawgday166
01-12-2023, 12:28 PM
Pain liked Moorhead too

Ok ... didn't remember that. Still like Pain's stats tho. Not a huge Bartoo fan.

msstate7
01-12-2023, 12:33 PM
Ok ... didn't remember that. Still like Pain's stats tho. Not a huge Bartoo fan.

Pain is great at the advanced stats. I think sometimes he puts too much trust in them though

dawgday166
01-12-2023, 12:35 PM
Pain is great at the advanced stats. I think sometimes he puts too much trust in them though

Bartoo sure enough does.

Coach34
01-12-2023, 12:38 PM
Bartoo thought JoMo was a HR hire. I trust Pain way more than Bartoo.

The stats are the stats.

Matt3467
01-12-2023, 12:39 PM
Leach's offense didnt work at State. Leach was 13th, 9th, and 8th in the SEC in Scoring. I'm trying to understand the logic of some of these people. Makes no sense

Here's some reality:

The "Holloway up the middle" offense was better than any offense Leach had at State

Mullen's first four years were 9th, 10th, and 9th with two less teams in the conference until 2012 so the bottom. Afterwards his offenses were 8th, 10th, 2nd (found Prescott), 5th, 7th, 7th. Outside of one breakout year with Prescott his offenses in conference ranked in the bottom half. I also don't like comparing Leach's first year with covid and playing an all SEC schedule with Dan's first year as it doesn't seem right. Now we'll never know but had Leach coached here for 9 years I think we forget all about Mullen.

dawgday166
01-12-2023, 12:41 PM
The stats are the stats.

Stats can be over or under emphasized as well as manipulated.

KOdawg1
01-12-2023, 12:43 PM
Some of y'all are morons. Respectfully, of course.

This is a solid hire. He's been top 30 in the country the last 2 years. Balanced attack. Experienced play caller. I don't know what more you wanted.

Arnett has killed these hires. Brad Peterson, Bump, Friend, Turner, Barbay. Probably gonna keep Washington. Keeping Tony Hughes.

Helluva staff that keeps our momentum going. Let's ride.

PikeDawg15
01-12-2023, 12:45 PM
Some of y'all are morons. Respectfully, of course.

This is a solid hire. He's been top 30 in the country the last 2 years. Balanced attack. Experienced play caller. I don't know what more you wanted.

Arnett has killed these hires. Brad Peterson, Bump, Friend, Turner, Barbay. Probably gonna keep Washington. Keeping Tony Hughes.

Helluva staff that keeps our momentum going. Let's ride.

I wouldn?t consider Will friend to be a killer hire, but other than that it?s pretty solid

KOdawg1
01-12-2023, 12:46 PM
I wouldn?t consider Will friend to be a killer hire, but other than that it?s pretty solid

Friend is a good hire. If he weren't replacing Miller, people would be thrilled.

mo7888
01-12-2023, 12:47 PM
Stats can be over or under emphasized as well as manipulated.

And they don't mean anything without being taken within context....

Prediction? Pain.
01-12-2023, 12:48 PM
We were 9th in the SEC in Scoring O in Y2 of Leach. That's the bottom line. So no- that's "not working" to most people.

2015's Holloway up the middle was 5th in the SEC. So Holloway Up the Middle > Any Leach O at State

I'm talking SEC v. SEC games only. We were 5th in scoring offense vs. SEC teams in 2021. And 4th in total offense. And 3rd in 3rd down conversion %. Are those bad numbers? "Not working"?

You want to lump in non-con games (where Mullen almost never player P5 opponents), too? Ok. So how is 7th in the SEC in total offense in 2021 "not working" compared to Mullen's ranks in the same category in '12, '13, '16, and '17 when we finished 7th, 9th, 7th, and 6th?

And if you want to bring in national stats, cool, look at drive efficiencies. We gained more available yards per drive in Year 2 of Leach than every year of Mullen's tenure other than '14 and '15, and we scored more TDs per drive in Year 2 of Leach than every year under Mullen other than '14, '15, and '17. (And in '17, our rank was just barely higher -- 45th vs. 47th.)

Again, I don't see a reason to bash Leach's offense at this point. If you think that 2021's offense was a failure, then fine, we'll just have to disagree. Statistically it was as good as any offense (https://www.elitedawgs.com/showthread.php?89545-2021-statistical-post-mortem) Mullen put on the field save '14 and '15. But whatever. Dude's gone and isn't coming back. Talking about the potential success of our offense going forward has nothing to do with how much any of us liked or disliked Leach's system.

mo7888
01-12-2023, 12:48 PM
I wouldn?t consider Will friend to be a killer hire, but other than that it?s pretty solid

The position hires aren't bad they're just lateral in most cases....a little down with Friend and up with Turner...

dawgday166
01-12-2023, 12:52 PM
Again, I don't see a reason to bash Leach's offense at this point. If you think that 2021's offense was a failure, then fine, we'll just have to disagree. Statistically it was as good as any offense (https://www.elitedawgs.com/showthread.php?89545-2021-statistical-post-mortem) Mullen put on the field save '14 and '15. But whatever. Dude's gone and isn't coming back. Talking about the potential success of our offense going forward has nothing to do with how much any of us liked or disliked Leach's system.

Agree with this.

CoachT14
01-12-2023, 12:53 PM
Check his losses out. He has some under 300 yds/game too. Not sure how the overall competition really compares tho. Hope I'm wrong but this do feel sorta like a JoMo hire to me some.

This is nothing like Jomo. Jomo was the beneficiary of talent advantages everywhere he went.

dawgday166
01-12-2023, 12:54 PM
This is nothing like Jomo. Jomo was the beneficiary of talent advantages everywhere he went.

Good point.

Prediction? Pain.
01-12-2023, 12:58 PM
Pain is great at the advanced stats. I think sometimes he puts too much trust in them though

All hail the mighty stats!

Nah, dude, I know that I don't know much about much aside from whisky and Pink Floyd. But I do know that when someone says that some football team sucked at scoring points or moving the ball, that should usually mean that they didn't score many points or move the ball. When the statements of suckitude -- and, bear in mind, what I've been seeing the past week or two on this board aren't just statements of suckitude, but grand, unequivocal statements of abject failure like "the offense didn't work" or "the offense was atrocious" or "Will Rogers is incapable of playing well against SEC teams" -- are flatly contradicted by facts, then I get all riled up like an internet dweeb defending the honor of Captain Kirk against the hordes of Picard loving fanboys.

Commercecomet24
01-12-2023, 01:00 PM
All hail the mighty stats!

Nah, dude, I know that I don't know much about much aside from whisky and Pink Floyd. But I do know that when someone says that some football team sucked at scoring points or moving the ball, that should usually mean that they didn't score many points or move the ball. When the statements of suckitude -- and, bear in mind, what I've been seeing the past week or two on this board aren't just statements of suckitude, but grand, equivocal statements of abject failure like "the offense didn't work" or "the offense was atrocious" or "Will Rogers is incapable of playing well against SEC teams" -- are flatly contradicted by facts, then I get all riled up like an internet dweeb defending the honor of Captain Kirk against the hordes of Picaard loving fanboys.

Awesome post! Have some rep!

Cooterpoot
01-12-2023, 01:33 PM
Lol... Every hire so far was lateral at best with the exception of Turner.... and we've seen this Offense before and it didn't work with a blue blood but you think it's gonna work here... uh huh...

Did you see the air raid be Alabama for 3 years? It was awful.

Cooterpoot
01-12-2023, 01:37 PM
Bartoo thought JoMo was a HR hire. I trust Pain way more than Bartoo.

And Morehead had a great offense because of the elite players. There are no elite players at App State.

Cooterpoot
01-12-2023, 01:40 PM
If by "didn't work," you mean "was in the top third of the SEC in scoring offense, total offense, and 3rd down conversion % in SEC games in Year 2," then you're absolutely right.

Yeah, we dropped off some in Year 3, but we were weren't so bad that it "didn't work." I posted a bunch of stuff yesterday about how we were still roughly at or just below middle-of-the-pack in the SEC in several metrics.

Also, "Holloway up the middle" scoring offense in SEC games: 6th in the SEC. Airbone 2021 scoring offense in SEC games: 5th in the SEC.

But that last point is misleading. Dak's senior-season offense was better than Will's sophomore-season offense in many ways. 16th in F+ offense vs. 27th. Granted, the 27th ranking in Leach's second season was higher than every offense Mullen fielded at State other than '14 and '15, but whatever.

No need to bash Leach at this point. Arnett's got his man and I'm stoked to see what he does here.

And it went backwards this year with the whole damn team returning for the most part. The Leach Air Raid dominated lazy DCs and teams with defensive deficiencies. He ate those up.

mo7888
01-12-2023, 01:43 PM
Did you see the air raid be Alabama for 3 years? It was awful.

We had the same amount of wins against Bama with the AR as Mullen and JoMo combined...

And for the record anyone could see that the version we ran with Will wasn't what ML preferred nor was it where the offense was going... Costello is what he wanted (a big armed QB that could stretch the field vertically and laterally) and when he couldn't be patient enough to take the short patterns they were there Will ended up being our best option. Then you look at the guys we recruited after Will all of them had stronger arms and ability to make a few plays with their feet.... that's where we were going..

StarkVegasSteve
01-12-2023, 01:45 PM
Funny enough, we have played against Barbay before...2018 opener vs SFA

Prediction? Pain.
01-12-2023, 01:48 PM
Funny enough, we have played against Barbay before...2018 opener vs SFA

I saw that, too. Another interesting note about that game is that it was his first game ever as a college OC.

StarkVegasSteve
01-12-2023, 01:53 PM
So I'll deep dive later in the night on the offense but just a cursory look at the last two years:

1. If the run isn't established, we will not win.

2. We are still going to throw the ball 30-35 times on average. There may games where we only throw it 20-25 but by and large the QB is still going to have plenty of opportunities to throw.

3. Will, or whoever is at QB, cannot be a statue in the pocket. They'll have to step up in the pocket at times and there will be times where play design will dictate pocket movement.

BlackSailsDawg
01-12-2023, 02:02 PM
Some of y'all are morons. Respectfully, of course.

This is a solid hire. He's been top 30 in the country the last 2 years. Balanced attack. Experienced play caller. I don't know what more you wanted.

Arnett has killed these hires. Brad Peterson, Bump, Friend, Turner, Barbay. Probably gonna keep Washington. Keeping Tony Hughes.

Helluva staff that keeps our momentum going. Let's ride.


Personally, to not throw out the baby with the bath water. We could have made meaningful changes without putting a new OC behind the curve. He has 6 days to get at least 3 TEs and at least another QB. Really need more RBs. Marks stays injured. That leaves Price and a very green true freshman.

All he needed to do was hire an OC with a background in an air raid with changes a few weeks ago and that OC would have had a great chance to get what was needed.

Spring is huge in implementing changes and there is a chance, we will not have a roster filled for that. It is what it is and he gets my support.

BlackSailsDawg
01-12-2023, 02:05 PM
And it went backwards this year with the whole damn team returning for the most part. The Leach Air Raid dominated lazy DCs and teams with defensive deficiencies. He ate those up.

Yep. Went backwards into 9 wins! Let's keep going backwards please!

StarkVegasSteve
01-12-2023, 02:07 PM
Personally, to not throw out the baby with the bath water. We could have made meaningful changes without putting a new OC behind the curve. He has 6 days to get at least 3 TEs and at least another QB. Really need more RBs. Marks stays injured. That leaves Price and a very green true freshman.

All he needed to do was hire an OC with a background in an air raid with changes a few weeks ago and that OC would have had a great chance to get what was needed.

Spring is huge in implementing changes and there is a chance, we will not have a roster filled for that. It is what it is and he gets my support.

We have another portal window after spring practice. We have plenty of time and this guy isn't stupid. And if we don't have TE's next year then guess what.....we probably won't use a TE. We'll use bigger slots to block and tighten the splits. It's not hard to scheme that.

Cooterpoot
01-12-2023, 02:09 PM
Yep. Went backwards into 9 wins! Let's keep going backwards please!

Little Thomas, that wasn't the offense doing that every week either. We scored fewer offensive points.

BlackSailsDawg
01-12-2023, 02:11 PM
We have another portal window after spring practice. We have plenty of time and this guy isn't stupid. And if we don't have TE's next year then guess what.....we probably won't use a TE. We'll use bigger slots to block and tighten the splits. It's not hard to scheme that.

That's not the point Steve. The point is Spring is a massive need when changing to a new system. This OC will get his spring, but the chances of getting quality TEs, QB and RBs in 6 days is slim. That means those players will only have a short summer to take it all in. That portal is in May.

We could have made needed changes without going this route and we could have done it weeks ago.

BlackSailsDawg
01-12-2023, 02:12 PM
Little Thomas, that wasn't the offense doing that every week either. We scored fewer offensive points.

We won more games. Next.

Really Clark?
01-12-2023, 02:17 PM
That's not the point Steve. The point is Spring is a massive need when changing to a new system. This OC will get his spring, but the chances of getting quality TEs, QB and RBs in 6 days is slim. That means those players will only have a short summer to take it all in. That portal is in May.

We could have made needed changes without going this route and we could have done it weeks ago.

With who as OC? Hatcher? He is settled running his own program and that was from him. So who would it be to run that?

StarkVegasSteve
01-12-2023, 02:18 PM
That's not the point Steve. The point is Spring is a massive need when changing to a new system. This OC will get his spring, but the chances of getting quality TEs, QB and RBs in 6 days is slim. That means those players will only have a short summer to take it all in. That portal is in May.

We could have made needed changes without going this route and we could have done it weeks ago.

We're not going from 5 wide to the damn wishbone. We're still going to be in mostly 11, 20, or 22 personnel out of gun or pistol. This year we were generally in 20 or 10 personnel. It's not some huge philosophical switch. The linemen don't change, the backs don't change, and the receivers don't change. You really only need to find a TE or just shorten the splits in the slot.

Commercecomet24
01-12-2023, 02:23 PM
We're not going from 5 wide to the damn wishbone. We're still going to be in mostly 11, 20, or 22 personnel out of gun or pistol. This year we were generally in 20 or 10 personnel. It's not some huge philosophical switch. The linemen don't change, the backs don't change, and the receivers don't change. You really only need to find a TE or just shorten the splits in the slot.

I don't get how people aren't understanding this.

Really Clark?
01-12-2023, 02:24 PM
We're not going from 5 wide to the damn wishbone. We're still going to be in mostly 11, 20, or 22 personnel out of gun or pistol. This year we were generally in 20 or 10 personnel. It's not some huge philosophical switch. The linemen don't change, the backs don't change, and the receivers don't change. You really only need to find a TE or just shorten the splits in the slot.

Exactly. Is it change, yes. But it's not opposite side of the world change.

Coach34
01-12-2023, 02:28 PM
The position hires aren't bad they're just lateral in most cases....a little down with Friend and up with Turner...

I'd say with the switch of offensive philosophy- we have upgraded with Friend

StarkVegasSteve
01-12-2023, 02:32 PM
I don't get how people aren't understanding this.

Because a large majority think I'm speaking in hieroglyphics when I mention 11,20,22,20, or 10 personnel.

BlackSailsDawg
01-12-2023, 02:35 PM
With who as OC? Hatcher? He is settled running his own program and that was from him. So who would it be to run that?

It really doesn't matter at this point, but Arbuckle was available. Harrell was available. There were plenty to make a move to a modern air raid.

StarkVegasSteve
01-12-2023, 02:39 PM
It really doesn't matter at this point, but Arbuckle was available. Harrell was available. There were plenty to make a move to a modern air raid.

No they weren't. They had MOU's or contracts with their new schools. It wasn't the Arnett situation where he was working without having signed anything.

Commercecomet24
01-12-2023, 02:40 PM
Because a large majority think I'm speaking in hieroglyphics when I mention 11,20,22,20, or 10 personnel.

I hear ya!

mo7888
01-12-2023, 02:42 PM
I'd say with the switch of offensive philosophy- we have upgraded with Friend

With the switch to a predominantly running scheme you could very well be right... I'd still say it's a lateral move at best but I can see where you're coming from on that..

HancockCountyDog
01-12-2023, 02:45 PM
I don't get how people aren't understanding this.

You really don't think this a is a major shift in our offensive philosphy? From OL splits to simply the amount of carries we can expect to give our backs, this is a big shift.

Now, I personally like the offense we are shifting to, but claiming that it isn't a big shift, is disingenuous.

BlackSailsDawg
01-12-2023, 02:50 PM
No they weren't. They had MOU's or contracts with their new schools. It wasn't the Arnett situation where he was working without having signed anything.

Arbuckle was late Dec. Announced officially on Jan 6th. We are not going to agree on this. Meacham was an option. There are just too many out there that we could have done that.

TAMU hired Bobby after he had been hired for 1 month at UNLV.

My point is, Arnett wanted a a system change and for better or worse or wash, we are here. But to keep saying there was no options to continue is not true.

BlackSailsDawg
01-12-2023, 02:51 PM
You really don't think this a is a major shift in our offensive philosphy? From OL splits to simply the amount of carries we can expect to give our backs, this is a big shift.

Now, I personally like the offense we are shifting to, but claiming that it isn't a big shift, is disingenuous.

When the whole play book changes. It's a big shift.

When the WRs change their methods, it is a big change.

Homedawg
01-12-2023, 03:03 PM
Because a large majority think I'm speaking in hieroglyphics when I mention 11,20,22,20, or 10 personnel.

you are on a roll of good points. Keep it up!

Homedawg
01-12-2023, 03:05 PM
It really doesn't matter at this point, but Arbuckle was available. Harrell was available. There were plenty to make a move to a modern air raid.

You ever thought that CZA, as a def coord, doesn't think the air raid, as we ran it, was hard to defend????? Thus, why we aren't doing it, along w the air raid died w CML death.

MrCoachKlein
01-12-2023, 03:09 PM
I'd much rather take some pain in switching offensive schemes and get a better OC than hire a lesser OC just to fit personnel.

LibraryDawg
01-12-2023, 03:10 PM
Friend is a good hire. If he weren't replacing Miller, people would be thrilled.

What are the chances Miller is retained? Friend as the interior OL guy and Miller as the T and TE coach (or vice versa)

BlackSailsDawg
01-12-2023, 03:11 PM
You ever thought that CZA, as a def coord, doesn't think the air raid, as we ran it, was hard to defend????? Thus, why we aren't doing it, along w the air raid died w CML death.

Who the hell ever stated the way we ran anything. Not me. Not anybody that I have seen. So why try to make a point that isn't even being talked about. What is being said is that we could have made a hire in the air raid model that is updated that would not have required a complete change in play books etc.

It doesn't matter at this point, we are where we are. We are going to run the offense of Barbay creation. So let's go do it!

StarkVegasSteve
01-12-2023, 03:30 PM
What are the chances Miller is retained? Friend as the interior OL guy and Miller as the T and TE coach (or vice versa)

0.00%. He has already been released from his contract.

Bdawg
01-12-2023, 04:49 PM
I wonder if Will has the arm for all of the deep shots Barbay calls.

If Will steps into the throws and not off his back foot a lot of times, I?m sure he will be ok on deep balls. You can throw deep balls with arc with an ok arm. It?s that line shot on a 15 yard out across the hash that Will doesn?t have. He can throw it but it has to have great precision and it won?t get out there as quick as most QBs. I just don?t want Will retreating in the pocket when under pressure. Try to step up and maneuver around in the pocket so when you do turn it loose, you can get something on it or get a short run for positive yards. Will running backwards with his speed is a big mistake.

BuckyIsAB****
01-12-2023, 06:07 PM
If Will steps into the throws and not off his back foot a lot of times, I?m sure he will be ok on deep balls. You can throw deep balls with arc with an ok arm. It?s that line shot on a 15 yard out across the hash that Will doesn?t have. He can throw it but it has to have great precision and it won?t get out there as quick as most QBs. I just don?t want Will retreating in the pocket when under pressure. Try to step up and maneuver around in the pocket so when you do turn it loose, you can get something on it or get a short run for positive yards. Will running backwards with his speed is a big mistake.

It is his worst habit by far.

Bdawg
01-12-2023, 06:18 PM
It is his worst habit by far.

They got to coach that out of him!!