Offensive efficiency

[Homedawg]

Last 3 years we rank in the bottom 25% in the country. This has to improve.......

[BlackSailsDawg]

Last 3 years we rank in the bottom 25% in the country. This has to improve.......

based on what? Got a link?

[BulldogDX55]

Last 3 years we rank in the bottom 25% in the country. This has to improve.......

Im not saying our offense was a bunch of world beaters, but our style of offense is the reason for that.

Y/PA is heavily weighted in offensive efficiency metrics, and because we used a short passing game as an extension of our run and because we chewed the hell out of the clock our offensive efficiency was always going to be low under Leach's system.

[msstate7]

Im not saying our offense was a bunch of world beaters, but our style of offense is the reason for that.

Y/PA is heavily weighted in offensive efficiency metrics, and because we used a short passing game as an extension of our run and because we chewed the hell out of the clock our offensive efficiency was always going to be low under Leach's system.

Yds/play ranking nationally...
2019 wash st - 5th
2018 wash st - 34th
2017 wash st - 70th
2016 - 40th
2015 - 46th

2022 state - 79th
2021 - 64th
2020 - 104th

ETA... Washington st was top 5 in the pac 12 in yards/play in pac 12 all those years, and only 2017 not in top 5 in conf only games. At state, we've finished 12th, 9th, and 11th in sec. In conf only, we've finished 13th, 9th, and 13th

[BulldogDX55]

Yds/play ranking nationally...
2019 wash st - 5th
2018 wash st - 34th
2017 wash st - 70th
2016 - 40th
2015 - 46th

2022 state - 79th
2021 - 64th
2020 - 104th

ETA... Washington st was top 5 in the pac 12 in yards/play in pac 12 all those years, and only 2017 not in top 5 in conf only games. At state, we've finished 12th, 9th, and 11th in sec. In conf only, we've finished 13th, 9th, and 13th

That's not really a counterpoint to what I was trying to say. That said, how many good defenses did Wazzu play against per year?

[msstate7]

That's not really a counterpoint to what I was trying to say. That said, how many good defenses did Wazzu play against per year?

If the offense only works well vs defenses that aren't good, it's not the offense we need

[Coach34]

If the offense only works well vs defenses that aren't good, it's not the offense we need

<mic drop>

cant argue that

[Commercecomet24]

If the offense only works well vs defenses that aren't good, it's not the offense we need

lol, that's an excellent point!

[Prediction? Pain.]

Last 3 years we rank in the bottom 25% in the country. This has to improve.......

You could argue in that 2020 we were in the bottom 25% nationally in just about every offensive metric there is. But we weren't in 2022, and we definitely weren't in 2021.


Im not saying our offense was a bunch of world beaters, but our style of offense is the reason for that.

Y/PA is heavily weighted in offensive efficiency metrics, and because we used a short passing game as an extension of our run and because we chewed the hell out of the clock our offensive efficiency was always going to be low under Leach's system.

You're right about yards-per-play stats taking you only so far. Maybe look at % of available yards gained per drive. So regardless of whether your plays are mostly short or mostly long, the stat would show how effectively you move the ball each time you've got it by measuring the percentage of yards you gain between you and the opponent's end zone. Or, if you want to look at an offense's scoring efficiency, maybe take a look at the % of an offense's drive that ends in a touchdown instead of just points per play or points per game.

In another post, I looked at those stats for MSU's offenses back to the beginning of Mullen's tenure. Here they are again, as national ranks:

https://i.postimg.cc/0NrM98yn/Off-Eff-09-22.png

Also, for what it's worth, the aggregation of the S&P+ and FEI advanced stats systems -- known as the "F+" ranking (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/fplus/2022) -- ranked our offense in the Top 35 nationally in both 2021 (27th) and 2022 (34th), which was also within the top half of the SEC both years.

The overall point is that the offense was horrific in '20, pretty good in '21, and mediocre-to-below-par in '22. But to paint a picture of Leach's tenure as one of offensive ineptitude is inaccurate, especially within the context of the past 20 years of MSU football. (I didn't dig up stats for the last few Jackie years and the Croom era. But I don't think any of us want to see them anyway.)

Also, re: the next OC. Arnett's the coach. Whatever offense he wants is what we shall have. An OC capable of using a pocket passer like Will and the other pieces we've currently got on the roster would be great. But if not, welp, so it goes. Based on our offenses' output under Mullen, Moorhead, and Leach, I'd say that we can fail or succeed (against everyone other than Alabama, of course, whose voodoo curse against our offense continues) whether we run it bunch or pass it a bunch.

Oh, totally unrelated, but it seems like I've seen some T.O.P. comments elsewhere. Something like Arnett's against pass-happy systems because they didn't possess the ball long enough and it negatively affected the D? Time of possession ranks in the SEC under Leach: 2020 - 3rd, 2021 - 1st, 2022 - 6th. Dude may want to ground and pound, but to say that he's tired of his unit be winded makes no sense.

[msstate7]

In FEI, we were behind ark and OM the last 2 years in offense. I like comparing us to them bc we can get the same level talent as them. Their offenses were superior in traditional and advanced stats.

As far as TOP, I would give some up for more explosive plays on offense, and I think that explosiveness can come by speeding the F up even if we stay pass happy

[BlackSailsDawg]

If the offense only works well vs defenses that aren't good, it's not the offense we need

That's not true. but carry on

[Prediction? Pain.]

In FEI, we were behind ark and OM the last 2 years in offense. I like comparing us to them bc we can get the same level talent as them. Their offenses were superior in traditional and advanced stats.

As far as TOP, I would give some up for more explosive plays on offense, and I think that explosiveness can come by speeding the F up even if we stay pass happy

I'm indifferent about TOP. High or low, it's about scoring and moving the ball. I was just responding to arguments I've seen on here the past couple of days about reasons to get away from all things Leach offensively. And like you, I'm all for more explosive plays.

We were indeed behind Arkansas and U. Miss. in offensive advanced stat rankings in '21 and '22. Briles and Kiffin have done phenomenal jobs with those offenses the past two years. They likely have similar-ish talent levels to State -- per 247's roster rankings this year, we're 12th in the SEC, U. Miss. is 9th, and Arkansas is 10th -- and have probably done more with that than State. But they've outperformed several other teams in that respect, too, not just us. And, again, it's not like we've been cellar dwellers, either. Auburn, A&M, SC, and Kentucky, all of whom have more talented rosters on paper, have all finished with worse offenses than State once or twice over the past two years.

Another thing, this isn't a new phenomenon that Leach's air raid created. In four of Mullen's last five years at State -- '13, '15, '16, and '17 -- U. Miss. finished with a more highly ranked offense that State's in advanced stats. Arkansas' did the same thing in '15, '16, and '17. So if you're going to use them as a baseline, we've been behind the curve for a while.

Final nerd point while we're getting nerdy: Arkansas's '21 offense surpassed State's by the skin of its teeth. No. 22 in F+ to State's No. 27. We were better than them in % of available yards gained (35th vs. 55th), TD% of drives (45th vs. 47th), % of drives that gained at least on first down (4th vs. 83rd), and % of zero-yard-or-less 3-and-outs (31st vs. 47th). Our points per drive were a little lower than theirs in '21, but I'm guessing that has more to do with our abysmal field goal kicking last year than the offense.

Man, I've not had the most productive day in the office today . . . .

[Commercecomet24]

I'm indifferent about TOP. High or low, it's about scoring and moving the ball. I was just responding to arguments I've seen on here the past couple of days about reasons to get away from all things Leach offensively. And like you, I'm all for more explosive plays.

We were indeed behind Arkansas and U. Miss. in offensive advanced stat rankings in '21 and '22. Briles and Kiffin have done phenomenal jobs with those offenses the past two years. They likely have similar-ish talent levels to State -- per 247's roster rankings this year, we're 12th in the SEC, U. Miss. is 9th, and Arkansas is 10th -- and have probably done more with that than State. But they've outperformed several other teams in that respect, too, not just us. And, again, it's not like we've been cellar dwellers, either. Auburn, A&M, SC, and Kentucky, all of whom have more talented rosters on paper, have all finished with worse offenses that State once or twice over the past two years.

Another thing, this isn't a new phenomenon that Leach's air raid created. In four of Mullen's last five years at State -- '13, '15, '16, and '17 -- U. Miss. finished with a more highly ranked offense that State's in advanced stats. Arkansas' did the same thing in '15, '16, and '17. So if you're going to use them as a baseline, we've been behind the curve for a while.

Final nerd point while we're getting nerdy: Arkansas's '21 offense surpassed State's by the skin of its teeth. No. 22 in F+ to State's No. 27. We were better than them in % of available yards gained (35th vs. 55th), TD% of drives (45th vs. 47th), % of drives that gained at least on first down (4th vs. 83th), and % of zero-yard-or-less 3-and-outs (31st vs. 47th). Our points per drive were a little lower than theirs in '21, but I'm guessing that has more to do with our abysmal field goal kicking last year than the offense.

Man, I've not had the most productive day in the office today . . . .

You are the best stats person on here and it's not even close! Always enjoy reading your analysis!

[Really Clark?]

I'm indifferent about TOP. High or low, it's about scoring and moving the ball. I was just responding to arguments I've seen on here the past couple of days about reasons to get away from all things Leach offensively. And like you, I'm all for more explosive plays.

We were indeed behind Arkansas and U. Miss. in offensive advanced stat rankings in '21 and '22. Briles and Kiffin have done phenomenal jobs with those offenses the past two years. They likely have similar-ish talent levels to State -- per 247's roster rankings this year, we're 12th in the SEC, U. Miss. is 9th, and Arkansas is 10th -- and have probably done more with that than State. But they've outperformed several other teams in that respect, too, not just us. And, again, it's not like we've been cellar dwellers, either. Auburn, A&M, SC, and Kentucky, all of whom have more talented rosters on paper, have all finished with worse offenses that State once or twice over the past two years.

Another thing, this isn't a new phenomenon that Leach's air raid created. In four of Mullen's last five years at State -- '13, '15, '16, and '17 -- U. Miss. finished with a more highly ranked offense that State's in advanced stats. Arkansas' did the same thing in '15, '16, and '17. So if you're going to use them as a baseline, we've been behind the curve for a while.

Final nerd point while we're getting nerdy: Arkansas's '21 offense surpassed State's by the skin of its teeth. No. 22 in F+ to State's No. 27. We were better than them in % of available yards gained (35th vs. 55th), TD% of drives (45th vs. 47th), % of drives that gained at least on first down (4th vs. 83th), and % of zero-yard-or-less 3-and-outs (31st vs. 47th). Our points per drive were a little lower than theirs in '21, but I'm guessing that has more to do with our abysmal field goal kicking last year than the offense.

Man, I've not had the most productive day in the office today . . . .

You've been productive for us though!! Lol. Always great stuff!!

[Commercecomet24]

You've been productive for us though!! Lol. Always great stuff!!

And being productive for us is all that counts, lol!

[Really Clark?]

And being productive for us is all that counts, lol!

Absolutely!!

[Prediction? Pain.]

You've been productive for us though!! Lol. Always great stuff!!

Anytime you want to put me on the payroll, you just let me know. Unfortunately, getting paid in MSU message board kudos and "a job well done" may not cut it as contributions to my household's income. "But shug, look how interested everyone is in the point-value of yards! That's worth more than a vacation this year, right?"

Random as hell side bar, does anyone think Arnett would dip down into the FCS for an OC? With most of the successful and established G5 OCs spoken for already and with the difficulty of poaching a sitting P5 OC, I wonder if he'd be willing to take the plunge with someone from the FCS like U. Miss. did with Longo a few years back.

[Really Clark?]

Anytime you want to put me on the payroll, you just let me know. Unfortunately, getting paid in MSU message board kudos and "a job well done" may not cut it as contributions to my household's income. "But shug, look how interested everyone is in the point-value of yards! That's worth more than a vacation this year, right?"

Random as hell side bar, does anyone thing Arnett would dip down into the FCS for an OC? With most of the successful and established G5 OCs spoken for already and with the difficulty of poaching a sitting P5 OC, I wonder if he'd be willing to take the plunge with someone from the FCS like U. Miss. did with Longo a few years back.

Let me work on creating a position for ya! I get the feeling a year supply of hot pockets and Red Bull may not be enough to pull ya. What else you need? Haha

Man that's a good question, I've thought of that. I mean Hatcher has been brought up a lot by posters. I don't really know enough about them and how they operate but James Madison was really good in FCS and first year in FBS put up a lot of points. What they are doing translated immediately.

[Lord McBuckethead]

We were efficient enough to come in 7th in the SEC overall. 3rd in the west.
All other numbers don't matter.
I want to be efficient enough to beat our schedule next year by 1 pt per game.

[Commercecomet24]

Anytime you want to put me on the payroll, you just let me know. Unfortunately, getting paid in MSU message board kudos and "a job well done" may not cut it as contributions to my household's income. "But shug, look how interested everyone is in the point-value of yards! That's worth more than a vacation this year, right?"

Random as hell side bar, does anyone think Arnett would dip down into the FCS for an OC? With most of the successful and established G5 OCs spoken for already and with the difficulty of poaching a sitting P5 OC, I wonder if he'd be willing to take the plunge with someone from the FCS like U. Miss. did with Longo a few years back.

You mean getting rep added on here isn't enough payment? I can let you have my vcash if that would help, lol!

There are some very good fcs oc out there. Might be worth a look.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Let me work on creating a position for ya! I get the feeling a year supply of hot pockets and Red Bull may not be enough to pull ya. What else you need? Haha

Man that's a good question, I've thought of that. I mean Hatcher has been brought up a lot by posters. I don't really know enough about them and how they operate but James Madison was really good in FCS and first year in FBS put up a lot of points. What they are doing translated immediately.

Yeah, Samford's offense has been awesome the past two years. Maybe longer, I don't know. But I don't know what's Hatcher and what's his OCs. His current OC was new in '22; he was the TE/ST coach on staff for the four previous years. The OC in '20 and '21 went to MTSU this year and their offense stunk. (Though to be fair, it did in '21, too.) And then the OC before that went to LSU as an offensive analyst, then to the NYG in the same role, and is now an offensive analyst for Florida. The consistency among that turnover leads me to think that maybe Hatcher is the one running the offense. But who knows.

There are several consistently great offenses in the FCS to choose from. (Princeton's current OC, for example, has had them rolling for three or four straight years, I think.) But I bet it's super hard to separate the wheat from the chaff, even more so than it already is in coaching searches.

[Commercecomet24]

Let me work on creating a position for ya! I get the feeling a year supply of hot pockets and Red Bull may not be enough to pull ya. What else you need? Haha

Man that's a good question, I've thought of that. I mean Hatcher has been brought up a lot by posters. I don't really know enough about them and how they operate but James Madison was really good in FCS and first year in FBS put up a lot of points. What they are doing translated immediately.

James Madison always seems to have a outstanding offense and it's very diverse as well. I believe Mike Shanahan has been oc there for a couple of years.

[Really Clark?]

James Madison always seems to have a outstanding offense and it's very diverse as well. I believe Mike Shanahan has been oc there for a couple of years.

Yeah they have. Mike Shanahan is the OC now and Shane Montgomery was before him, he's now at University of Buffalo (they have been very average). Just didn't know who actually game plans/calls plays for them.

ETA. I found it, Shanahan has been calling plays the last 2 years.

[msstate7]

James Madison always seems to have an outstanding offense and it's very diverse as well. I believe Mike Shanahan has been oc there for a couple of years.

Shanahan Jr?

[Commercecomet24]

Shanahan Jr?

No he's not the son of Mike(Broncos coach).

[Desoto1967]

I remember Lashley gettin several false starts his last season. Did penalty yards go down in 22?

[msstate7]

No he's not the son of Mike(Broncos coach).

Good. I woulda hired him on the spot haha

[Coach34]

I remember Lashley gettin several false starts his last season. Did penalty yards go down in 22?

We had 15 fewer penalties this season....BUT we had MORE penalty yards this year. So fewer little false starts and such but more PI and personal foul types