Snow for Christmas?

[msstate7]

Saw on Facebook that GFS showing it. Anything to it or just Facebook lies?

[KOdawg1]

10 day forecast shows highs will be in 30s.

I personally love it. Not much worse than a muggy 78 degree Christmas day

[Desoto1967]

in Southaven it is showing snow showers in the morning next Thursday, with low 20s that Friday and Christmas Eve

Maybe something on the ground here Christmas?

[TrapGame]

Hell, in Mississippi I'll take a chilly Christmas. It sure beats balmy weather and wearing shorts over to my mom's house for lunch.

[starkvegasdawg]

A couple of early runs were showing a chance at snow, but latest model consensus is dry and cold.

[starkvegasdawg]

Now let me add, I just looked at the NWS blend of models and it's showing 1-2" for north MS and a dusting to just under an inch for the rest of the state. Yes, the rest of the state. Starting Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. I'm still very low confidence but a guy can dream.

[starkvegasdawg]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkB3rxuWQAYbRPf?format=jpg&name=large

[huffy]

Now let me add, I just looked at the NWS blend of models and it's showing 1-2" for north MS and a dusting to just under an inch for the rest of the state. Yes, the rest of the state. Starting Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. I'm still very low confidence but a guy can dream.

Deleted - joke with bad taste :)

[DownwardDawg]

Now let me add, I just looked at the NWS blend of models and it's showing 1-2" for north MS and a dusting to just under an inch for the rest of the state. Yes, the rest of the state. Starting Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. I'm still very low confidence but a guy can dream.

Yeah, up here in Tennessee some days the forecast shows 1-3" multiple days around Christmas then the next time I look it's clear all those days. It's gonna be cold though!!

[DownwardDawg]

Right now it showing me 1-3 inches on the 22nd and 6 degrees!!!! Crazy! Headed to The Sip on the 23rd!!

[State82]

Not much worse than a muggy 78 degree Christmas day

I despise that.

[RocketDawg]

A couple of early runs were showing a chance at snow, but latest model consensus is dry and cold.

And the model runs will change a dozen times, at least, until late next week. Here's what the NWS says about it. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc_key_messages/CPC-Key-Message-latest.png

[DownwardDawg]

And the model runs will change a dozen times, at least, until late next week. Here's what the NWS says about it. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc_key_messages/CPC-Key-Message-latest.png

It's changed everyday, and multiple times per day that I've looked.

[trojandawg]

None for us on the I10 corridor.

[Pancho]

fly out with snow and land in Tampa to 88 degrees

[RocketDawg]

fly out with snow and land in Tampa to 88 degrees

If it's really cold here, chances are it'll be pretty chilly in Tampa. Just depends on the timing of the fronts.

I've seen forecast max temp for next Friday (Christmas Eve eve) at 21 in my neck of the woods.

[starkvegasdawg]

And the model runs will change a dozen times, at least, until late next week. Here's what the NWS says about it. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc_key_messages/CPC-Key-Message-latest.png

They will change. Models have a tremendously hard time with winter weather in the south. Keep in mind, the storm systems that might bring snow don't even exist now. And once they form, if they form, they have to travel in a perfect path to draw moisture into cold air without warming it above freezing. Too far north and it's all rain. Too far south and the moisture never over rides the cold air. What does look to be certain is that cold air will be in place late next week as an arctic front pushes though the area. So item 1 needed for snow...check. Then it just comes down to those yet to exist storm systems. Will they form? If they form what will be their track? That is impossible to know right now. And won't be known until several days from now. That's why I said I have very low confidence in this happening. But the NWS blend of models is starting to consistently show it the last couple days. The GFS is on again off again. The noon run had it back in. The euro has been consistently dry and cold. The Canadian is back behind Applebees smoking weed and doesn't know what's going on. So just sit back and let's see what happens. If you're a die hard skeptic who thinks it will never snow like my dad was, and then it doesn't snow you weren't disappointed. But if part of you, like me, loves watching it snow and the thought of seeing a little snow near or on Christmas - no matter how small the chance - just brings a smile to your face and a little joy in your heart, then you have something to hope for.

[RocketDawg]

We've had several occasions with flurries or light snow on Christmas Day, but the best was in 2010 when accumulations varied from 2.5" to 7" or so in the area. https://whnt.com/weather/valleywx-blog/blast-of-winters-past-the-rare-white-christmas/ I think I've heard that an official White Christmas has to have 1" or greater.

We're planning on going to Atlanta this year on Friday but may have to at least make some alteration to plans. Weather Channel says Friday's high will be 25 in Atlanta with a possiblilty of snow (at this time). My car has summer tires, which really shouldn't be used below 45 degrees, but certainly not into the teens and single digits, snow or not. Wife's car has all-season so those would be OK. Might require driving through Chattanooga, then down I-75. That's about 50 miles farther but doesn't have significant hills. I don't want to drive through the mountains with snow on the roads, plus her car is RWD which is not good for snow. My car is AWD but the summer performance tires won't cut it. There should have been a Huntsville/Atlanta Interstate, or least a freeway, years ago.

[parabrave]

None for us on the I10 corridor.

Um there is a possibilty for the coast.

[starkvegasdawg]

Nothing new to report. The models showing snow are still showing snow. The models showing cold and dry are still showing cold and dry.

[parabrave]

Hey Vdog check out this dashcam video if the New Orleans Tornado.

https://youtu.be/J5lE6QPIsrE

At 29 secs you can make out the roof blowing off the house in the foreground

[SaintDawg]

What's the local word from the weatherheads about the impending Ice Age descending on us this week? Hearing of a 50 degree temp drop in 12 hrs.😳🥶

[starkvegasdawg]

What's the local word from the weatherheads about the impending Ice Age descending on us this week? Hearing of a 50 degree temp drop in 12 hrs.😳🥶

Some places could see a 50 degree drop Thursday night. Most will be in the 35-40 drop. Windchills below zero Friday morning Jackson north.

[defiantdog]

Some places could see a 50 degree drop Thursday night. Most will be in the 35-40 drop. Windchills below zero Friday morning Jackson north.
So..... you're saying it's going to be cold.

[Activated Alpha]

So..... you're saying it's going to be cold.

Cold? Pssh this is jogging weather....

[Cooterpoot]

The models showing cold and dry are still showing cold and dry.

NWS is obviously picking up my ex-wife on radar.

[RocketDawg]

Do you guys remember December 1989? Midnight temp was 9 and that was the high for the day. Daytime temperature stayed below zero the entire time, with, if I remember correctly, wind chill near -40. It looks like this cold snap will be about 10 degrees warmer. There was essentially no snow.

[DownwardDawg]

Do you guys remember December 1989? Midnight temp was 9 and that was the high for the day. Daytime temperature stayed below zero the entire time, with, if I remember correctly, wind chill near -40. It looks like this cold snap will be about 10 degrees warmer. There was essentially no snow.

I went deer hunting that morning. I was much younger, dumber, and more mad at the deer than I am today.
I'll never forget that. There was 3 of us. We went simply because we had never hunted in that cold of weather.

[State82]

NWS is obviously picking up my ex-wife on radar.

She must be running or flying with mine. Flying on brooms. That picks up much better on radar.

[DownwardDawg]

Now they're saying it's gonna be 3 degrees and 100% snow Thursday night. The high Friday is 15. We have to drive Friday from Nashville to Mississippi.

[Todd4State]

Now they're saying it's gonna be 3 degrees and 100% snow Thursday night. The high Friday is 15. We have to drive Friday from Nashville to Mississippi.

Driving is my biggest concern. Mississippi does not know how to handle snow. Moreso Mississippi does not know how to handle ice.

I don't want to have to buy myself a new car for Christmas.

[Pancho]

Now they're saying it's gonna be 3 degrees and 100% snow Thursday night. The high Friday is 15. We have to drive Friday from Nashville to Mississippi.

Our relatives are driving as well and now plan to leave after work thursday instead of waiting til friday morning to depart.

[starkvegasdawg]

Still looks like very little snow for MS. Best case is looking like around an inch near the TN border. Most places will see a dusting at best with how things look now.

[Gypsy_RoadDawg]

I went deer hunting that morning. I was much younger, dumber, and more mad at the deer than I am today.
I'll never forget that. There was 3 of us. We went simply because we had never hunted in that cold of weather.

That is so like something I would have done back in the day.

[CaptainObvious]

Now they're saying it's gonna be 3 degrees and 100% snow Thursday night. The high Friday is 15. We have to drive Friday from Nashville to Mississippi.

It will be a dry snow at those temps. Does the term Freeze Dried ring your cowbell?

[DownwardDawg]

Our relatives are driving as well and now plan to leave after work thursday instead of waiting til friday morning to depart.

Yeah, now were talking leaving Thursday after lunch instead of Friday.

[DownwardDawg]

Just got a notification for -15 degree wind chill on Friday. Glad I'll be in Mississippi!!!

[DownwardDawg]

It will be a dry snow at those temps. Does the term Freeze Dried ring your cowbell?

Haha!!!

[Liverpooldawg]

Do you guys remember December 1989? Midnight temp was 9 and that was the high for the day. Daytime temperature stayed below zero the entire time, with, if I remember correctly, wind chill near -40. It looks like this cold snap will be about 10 degrees warmer. There was essentially no snow.

I duck hunted on the TENN-Tom Waterway during that. The whole thing was frozen, except for a small patch that happened to be right in one of our wade in spots. We had ducks. The only thing we could figure is that there must have been an underwater spring there. Everything else was frozen solid enough to walk on without cracking the ice. It was dang cold.

[Rawdawg]

With the rain during the week and on Thursday, what do you think road conditions and trees/power lines will be like?

[RocketDawg]

Our relatives are driving as well and now plan to leave after work thursday instead of waiting til friday morning to depart.

We're supposed to go to Atlanta for Christmas. Whether we do will depend on road conditions. Probably will be OK, but going through the mountains with snow on the roads could be tough.

[TNDawg35]

Still looks like very little snow for MS. Best case is looking like around an inch near the TN border. Most places will see a dusting at best with how things look now.

What about N of Memphis around Atoka/Covington?

[starkvegasdawg]

What about N of Memphis around Atoka/Covington?

From what I'm seeing now 1" max for most places. A few isolated areas may see some banding and might see 2".

[DownwardDawg]

With the rain during the week and on Thursday, what do you think road conditions and trees/power lines will be like?

That's why I'm probably driving the family Thursday evening instead of Friday. It should rain heavy Thursday night then turn to snow and hard freeze before Friday morning. That's my concern.

[Dawg_Lover]

For NW MS, they are predicting a chance of rain Thursday afternoon shortly before temps drop, to single digit level, that night. Regardless of snow, the chance of a thin ice layer, on roads, could be a real concern, for travelers. On top of that, high winds are predicted for Friday.

[Goldendawg]

So when should I go to the "Pig" for milk and bread here in NE MS?** Hail State!

[RocketDawg]

From what I'm seeing now 1" max for most places. A few isolated areas may see some banding and might see 2".

Thing is, it doesn't matter if it's a half inch or 6 inches, the roads can be just as dangerous. In fact, 6 inches might mitigate sidewise sliding a bit. I saw a stat somewhere recently that the vast majority of accidents occur with light snowfalls, even in or northern states where they claim to be "used" to it.

When I took my Subaru Forester out a couple of years ago when we had 4" or so, it was solid as a rock. It even had an X-Drive, or some such name, that was meant for offloading, mud, and snow. It works well. My Audi doesn't have that sort of setting.

A word of caution if you have a car with "summer performance" tires: Don't drive it in below freezing temps, and certainly not in single digits. The tread blocks can actually because so stiff they break off (if that happens for more than 4 hours, go to the ER ;) ). Plus, even if they stay in one piece the traction sucks. https://www.tirerack.com/tires/tiretech/techpage.jsp?techid=273

[RocketDawg]

So when should I go to the "Pig" for milk and bread here in NE MS?** Hail State!

Wife did regular grocery shopping today at Publix and she said they were stocking as soon as people pulled stuff of the shelf. You should be good to shop Thursday if you want to fight the crowds.

[was21]

Wife did regular grocery shopping today at Publix and she said they were stocking as soon as people pulled stuff of the shelf. You should be good to shop Thursday if you want to fight the crowds.

Lucky you with a Publix....love that store. Guess they don't locate in Mississippi because of the stupid liquour laws.

[RocketDawg]

Lucky you with a Publix....love that store. Guess they don't locate in Mississippi because of the stupid liquour laws.

There's one a bit over a mile to my north, and a larger one about the same distance to the south. I really like Publix - friendly staff and high quality food. And a good deli and bakery. Publix sells wine here, but not sure about liquor.

[DownwardDawg]

I'm thinking if I leave the Nashville area around lunch Friday, that will give enough time for the 18 wheelers to eat up all the ice on the roads. It'll be freezing but sunny with trucks all up and down the road. Maybe......
I still may leave Thursday.

[DownwardDawg]

There's one a bit over a mile to my north, and a larger one about the same distance to the south. I really like Publix - friendly staff and high quality food. And a good deli and bakery. Publix sells wine here, but not sure about liquor.

Same here. Love Publix. But they don't sell liquor in Tennessee. Only wine. And that just started a year or so ago. I have 4 Publix within 5 miles of my home. Crazy.

[EdwardDrayton]

So when should I go to the "Pig" for milk and bread here in NE MS?** Hail State!

My grandfather always cracked me up when I visited as a kid. He would tell my grandmother he was taking me to the Wobblin' Hog.

[EdwardDrayton]

Same here. Love Publix. But they don't sell liquor in Tennessee. Only wine. And that just started a year or so ago. I have 4 Publix within 5 miles of my home. Crazy.

Publix is unparalleled. We have one here in Fairhope with two more about to open!!

[DownwardDawg]

My grandfather always cracked me up when I visited as a kid. He would tell my grandmother he was taking me to the Wobblin' Hog.

Haha!!

[starkvegasdawg]

Snow is still looking scarce with this system, but cold will be in abundance. Take this with a grain of salt, but the 12Z run of the HRRR was showing windchill values 6:00am Friday morning -20 along the TN line and around -16 along the Highway 82 corridor. Below zero readings were as far south as Hattiesburg. If this verifies, or anything close to it, make sure all outside animals are as prepared as they can be. Check in those with limited heat. We're getting our heat repaired today just in time. And make sure any portable heaters are properly ventilated to prevent carbon monoxide poisoning.

[TNDawg35]

Snow is still looking scarce with this system, but cold will be in abundance. Take this with a grain of salt, but the 12Z run of the HRRR was showing windchill values 6:00am Friday morning -20 along the TN line and around -16 along the Highway 82 corridor. Below zero readings were as far south as Hattiesburg. If this verifies, or anything close to it, make sure all outside animals are as prepared as they can be. Check in those with limited heat. We're getting our heat repaired today just in time. And make sure any portable heaters are properly ventilated to prevent carbon monoxide poisoning.

Gonna be a cold morning in the duck blind…

[starkvegasdawg]

18z run not backing off cold from 12z run.

[DownwardDawg]

If I weren't traveling to Mississippi, I would take my survival gear and head to the deer woods. Not far from the truck......

[RocketDawg]

Snow is still looking scarce with this system, but cold will be in abundance. Take this with a grain of salt, but the 12Z run of the HRRR was showing windchill values 6:00am Friday morning -20 along the TN line and around -16 along the Highway 82 corridor. Below zero readings were as far south as Hattiesburg. If this verifies, or anything close to it, make sure all outside animals are as prepared as they can be. Check in those with limited heat. We're getting our heat repaired today just in time. And make sure any portable heaters are properly ventilated to prevent carbon monoxide poisoning.

I remember a time when I was growing up in Meridian, I think in the early 60s because I was in junior high then, that the actual temperature dropped to 0. That was the first time ever for them, and I believe the last as well.

[Todd4State]

How bad is the ice supposed to be? That's my concern.

[starkvegasdawg]

How bad is the ice supposed to be? That's my concern.

All precip should be light. Problem is that it's coming at night with little traffic and once the temp plummets any moisture will flash freeze to surfaces turning them into a skating rink. North of 82 I would be very careful driving tonight once the front passes and tomorrow morning. Also getting power outages due to wind.

[RocketDawg]

All precip should be light. Problem is that it's coming at night with little traffic and once the temp plummets any moisture will flash freeze to surfaces turning them into a skating rink. North of 82 I would be very careful driving tonight once the front passes and tomorrow morning. Also getting power outages due to wind.

Memphis was down to 17 at 7 p.m. with light snow, and they were at 44 at 6:00. A 27 degree drop in one hour. They may be getting "river effect" snow.

Here, to the east and slightly south, it's still 49. That's a powerful front.

[Todd4State]

All precip should be light. Problem is that it's coming at night with little traffic and once the temp plummets any moisture will flash freeze to surfaces turning them into a skating rink. North of 82 I would be very careful driving tonight once the front passes and tomorrow morning. Also getting power outages due to wind.

What about driving up Christmas Eve in the morning from Jackson to Memphis?

[starkvegasdawg]

What about driving up Christmas Eve in the morning from Jackson to Memphis?

I would think roads should be ok by then. Especially the main roads.

[DownwardDawg]

The snow is coming down pretty hard now in Nashville area. It was fun to watch it start. Like a switch flipped. We heading to The Sip tomorrow but gonna wait until lunch. Let the wrecks and 18 wheelers clear the roads first.

[DownwardDawg]

Good thing about highways, the trucks never stop. Some wreck, but they drive nonstop and beat the ice up.

[starkvegasdawg]

Now light snow in Starkvegas. About to ease out the door and see what I can see.

[RocketDawg]

Temperature has just started dropping at my house, about 8:35.

[starkvegasdawg]

Temperature has just started dropping at my house, about 8:35.

In Starkville it went from 51 and raining to 32 and snowing in less than an hour.

[Todd4State]

I would think roads should be ok by then. Especially the main roads.

Thank you so much!

[DownwardDawg]

I need to post a video

[DownwardDawg]

It's 13 here now. Wind chill -4

[hailmari]

Road conditions are already pretty bad in Desoto county. I saw 8 cars off the road on I55 between Hernando and Southaven.

[DownwardDawg]

https://i.postimg.cc/853pLm3w/0-D395-AF9-0-EEB-492-E-BFCC-8-D707209160-B.png

[parabrave]

Checkout the southern edge of the snowline. It stops at I 40 and the western edge of the Smokies.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/CONUS/GEOCOLOR/20223571911_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-1250x750.jpg

[DownwardDawg]

What about driving up Christmas Eve in the morning from Jackson to Memphis?

Drove from Nashville to Collins MS today. Once we got south of Thompson Station TN, it was like it never rained, snowed, nothing. Traffic moving 80 mph like usual!! Lol

[DownwardDawg]

Checkout the southern edge of the snowline. It stops at I 40 and the western edge of the Smokies.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/CONUS/GEOCOLOR/20223571911_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-1250x750.jpg

Yeah. This shows about what I saw today. Right as we were about to get out of Tennessee, the roads were as clear as usual.

[Pancho]

this change in forecast has us in north MS all abuzz this morning. 1" or so is in the process of coming down

[ArrowDawg]

Enjoy winter while it lasts. Our weather is going to get stupid (again) starting next weekend.

[Pancho]

I'll be in Tampa