Weatherdawgs, how's it looking for Tuesday/Wednesday

[Commercecomet24]

Hey guys always appreciate your info and value your opinions! What's this severe threat for Tuesday/Wednesday looking like? SPC seems to be pretty concerned about it. Thanks for all y'all do!

[DownwardDawg]

I stole the grand baby from Mississippi this morning. She's up here with me for a while. I need some snow!! What y'all got weather dawgs???!!!?!!!

[starkvegasdawg]

I want to be excited for this event, but I can't. Especially for the northern half of the state. Everything I am seeing is limiting instability to LA and the southern half of MS. I just haven't seen anything that blows my skirt up for AR and the western delta of MS. That said, instability is the only thing lacking for those areas as wind shear will be more than sufficient. A lot of times models will under perform on moisture return so it could end up being more than it appears now. The mid range models are just now picking up on the first half of the event and right now they're keeping moisture and instability confined down south. The SPC is still confident, though, so I'm not one to argue with them. But if I had a gun to my head and asked my opinion, I would say this will be primarily confined to LA south of I-20 on Tuesday and shift into central and south MS into Wednesday with Tuesday looking to be the worst day. Again, all subject to how robust moisture return will be to fuel instability.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks, SVD! As usual we are in the shooting gallery here in Jones county lol! Appreciate the info!

[RocketDawg]

I want to be excited for this event, but I can't. Especially for the northern half of the state. Everything I am seeing is limiting instability to LA and the southern half of MS. I just haven't seen anything that blows my skirt up for AR and the western delta of MS. That said, instability is the only thing lacking for those areas as wind shear will be more than sufficient. A lot of times models will under perform on moisture return so it could end up being more than it appears now. The mid range models are just now picking up on the first half of the event and right now they're keeping moisture and instability confined down south. The SPC is still confident, though, so I'm not one to argue with them. But if I had a gun to my head and asked my opinion, I would say this will be primarily confined to LA south of I-20 on Tuesday and shift into central and south MS into Wednesday with Tuesday looking to be the worst day. Again, all subject to how robust moisture return will be to fuel instability.

Don't know about you guys, but I certainly hope it underperforms for precipitation. We've had enough rain in the past two weeks to last for two months.

[starkvegasdawg]

I stole the grand baby from Mississippi this morning. She's up here with me for a while. I need some snow!! What y'all got weather dawgs???!!!?!!!

I'll tell you right now nobody on this planet wants snow more than me. There's been some hints of a possible dusting here and there, but nothing I'll get my hopes up over.

[yjnkdawg]

Thanks SVD for all you do. I'll take the snow anytime over severe weather.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks SVD for all you do. I'll take the snow anytime over severe weather.

Amen to this!

[Liverpooldawg]

I want to be excited for this event, but I can't. Especially for the northern half of the state. Everything I am seeing is limiting instability to LA and the southern half of MS. I just haven't seen anything that blows my skirt up for AR and the western delta of MS. That said, instability is the only thing lacking for those areas as wind shear will be more than sufficient. A lot of times models will under perform on moisture return so it could end up being more than it appears now. The mid range models are just now picking up on the first half of the event and right now they're keeping moisture and instability confined down south. The SPC is still confident, though, so I'm not one to argue with them. But if I had a gun to my head and asked my opinion, I would say this will be primarily confined to LA south of I-20 on Tuesday and shift into central and south MS into Wednesday with Tuesday looking to be the worst day. Again, all subject to how robust moisture return will be to fuel instability.

I'm excited you aren't excited.

[DownwardDawg]

https://i.postimg.cc/sXzgfcwz/53-B43695-0-A94-418-F-865-E-62-FA8-F784238.jpg

Downtown Nashville this past January. More of this please!!!

[PGHBulldogBG]

I stole the grand baby from Mississippi this morning. She's up here with me for a while. I need some snow!! What y'all got weather dawgs???!!!?!!!

We already had that in November. You all can take it the rest of the winter

[starkvegasdawg]

00z run of the NAM is in and still not impressed. Southern LA is getting a good mix of parameters for severe weather, but I'm just not seeing it right now for north of I-20. I've been wrong before. May be again here. But I'm not seeing anything now making me want to burn vacation time.

[DownwardDawg]

We already had that in November. You all can take it the rest of the winter

Lol. Living my whole life in Mississippi, I'm enjoying the snow in north Tennessee. It ain't nothing like Pennsylvania though!!!

[starkvegasdawg]

Ok. Got to put something out there before you start seeing it all over social media. The latest GFS coming in now is showing accumulating snow for parts of MS around the 82 corridor next Monday (19th). The NWS National Blend of Models is showing a dusting on the 20th. Am I saying it is going to snow? Absolutely not. I never believe it's going to snow until I've watched flakes fall for at least an hour. This is the first run the GFS has shown snow. The NWS blend has hinted at a dusting a day or so now. If nothing else there is growing consensus of a pattern change at least bringing temps out of the upper 70's and back to more December like temps. Maybe no more swatting mosquitoes in the deer stand. And who knows? Maybe...just maybe we see a couple flakes before Christmas.

But with the gfs showing snow on just one run the hype sites will start pumping out posts of snowmageddon before Christmas.

[Commercecomet24]

00z run of the NAM is in and still not impressed. Southern LA is getting a good mix of parameters for severe weather, but I'm just not seeing it right now for north of I-20. I've been wrong before. May be again here. But I'm not seeing anything now making me want to burn vacation time.

How's it looking for jones/jasper county? Thanks svd!

[starkvegasdawg]

How's it looking for jones/jasper county? Thanks svd!

Maybe, but from what I'm seeing this is going to struggle to do much in MS as it looks now.

[Commercecomet24]

Maybe, but from what I'm seeing this is going to struggle to do much in MS as it looks now.

Thanks, man!

[starkvegasdawg]

Here is the latest from the SPC for Tuesday. The enhanced area is also now in a hatched tornado threat meaning a risk for EF2+ tornadoes. I just don't see what they're seeing, but please listen to them over me.

3356

[RocketDawg]

https://i.postimg.cc/sXzgfcwz/53-B43695-0-A94-418-F-865-E-62-FA8-F784238.jpg

Downtown Nashville this past January. More of this please!!!

Looks like the city was slow to clear the roads. Don't know about Tennessee, but here the State is responsible for clearing major roads (Interstates, US highways) and the city does other streets. The city does a lot better job than the state does.

[DownwardDawg]

Looks like the city was slow to clear the roads. Don't know about Tennessee, but here the State is responsible for clearing major roads (Interstates, US highways) and the city does other streets. The city does a lot better job than the state does.

Yeah. The city did pretty good. This is actually I-65 headed into Nashville. It was a damn epic snow though. It was hard for them to keep up. It was just one of those times when I absolutely had to be out there or no way I would have been. My vehicle is built for that mess but it was everyone else I was worried about. People were sliding all over the place.

[RocketDawg]

Yeah. The city did pretty good. This is actually I-65 headed into Nashville. It was a damn epic snow though. It was hard for them to keep up. It was just one of those times when I absolutely had to be out there or no way I would have been. My vehicle is built for that mess but it was everyone else I was worried about. People were sliding all over the place.

I recongnize the interchange in the distance. I can't remember if we had snow at the time Nashville had that storm or not. We had 2 or 3 decent ones here but it was just warm enough that the roads were OK for the most part.

[Commercecomet24]

Bump. Any updates? Doesn't look to good for south Mississippi

[parabrave]

Bump. Any updates? Doesn't look to good for south Mississippi

Well our area just went from slight to enhanced.

[starkvegasdawg]

Things have trended up since my last post. Moisture return is indeed coming in more than first forecast and areas south of I-20. I still don't think the north part of the state sees much but can't rule it out.

[Commercecomet24]

Things have trended up since my last post. Moisture return is indeed coming in more than first forecast and areas south of I-20. I still don't think the north part of the state sees much but can't rule it out.

Not what I wanted to hear lol! Always appreciate your info!

[EdwardDrayton]

Yeah that's not going to do anything good for my hunting plans next week in Dallas County.

[starkvegasdawg]

LA getting hit pretty hard now. Storm is definitely maximizing potential. With few points now forecast or be higher over MS it isn't out of the realm of possibility to except a rough day tomorrow. The further south you are the higher the chance. Once you start getting north of Jackson you begin to outrun the best moisture. One caveat to that is eastern MS where moisture return will have longer to occur. That could allow severe storms to edge further north to maybe downtown Louisvuuuhhhlll. I'll admit I underestimated this storm system when I was looking at it a few days ago.

[parabrave]

TWs popping up around Shreveport and the 20 corridor. Could be a rough night for the Vicksburg area.

[starkvegasdawg]

Severe weather has started to push across the river into MS with a severe thunderstorm warning near Greenville. There are a couple tornado warned storms back into AR. I'm hoping the tornado threat may be starting to wane some, but certainly not gone.

[Maverick91]

What about mobile area?

[parabrave]

What about mobile area?

Morning to afternoon.

[Maverick91]

Morning to afternoon.

We taking actual tornados or just wind and rain ?

[parabrave]

We taking actual tornados or just wind and rain ?

We are in an enhanced, 3of 5, level. That's pretty high for the coast.

https://www.weather.gov/images/lix/graphicast/3.png?5db3d7fd0ae7431257572dda4654d6ed

[starkvegasdawg]

We taking actual tornados or just wind and rain ?

All modes of severe weather possible. Shear profiles are favorable for discrete supercells and bowing segments.

[Maverick91]

Preciate it guys!

[starkvegasdawg]

Storm is producing severe weather much further north than I ever thought it would.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks for the updates y'all! Appreciate it! Now tell the severe weather to go away!

[trojandawg]

What's it looking like for west ms gulf Coast tomorrow?

[starkvegasdawg]

Storm between Vicksburg and Rolling Fork with a huge debris signature. Tornado is on the ground with this storm.

[Commercecomet24]

Storm between Vicksburg and Rolling Fork with a huge debris signature. Tornado is on the ground with this storm.

Yeah I saw it was confirmed by law enforcement. Said very large tornado. Dang!

[starkvegasdawg]

Yeah I saw it was confirmed by law enforcement. Said very large tornado. Dang!
It has since weakened but for a couple of scans it had a monster debris ball and debris was being lofted to 20,000'. That's a strong tornado. As a comparison, the Louisville EF-4 lofted debris 25,000'.

[starkvegasdawg]

Watch issued

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fj6oUUoXoAATXA3?format=jpg&name=medium

[Dawg_Lover]

Watch issued

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fj6oUUoXoAATXA3?format=jpg&name=medium

SVD, it looks like the bad stuff may be creeping your way. Do you think conditions will hold up long enough to cause any concern for your area?

[starkvegasdawg]

SVD, it looks like the bad stuff may be creeping your way. Do you think conditions will hold up long enough to cause any concern for your area?

I honestly don't know. This storm has done way more than I thought it would ever do. I thought it would be confined much further south and even the current SPC outlook is saying that. I'm hoping those two rogue supercells that have been responsible for the tornado warnings are starting to be ingested into the main line. That will reduce the tornado threat so long as new ones don't develop. I need to be asleep but can't quit watching these storms. If they maintain intensity as they get closer then I'll ease into the truck and go take a look.

[Commercecomet24]

It has since weakened but for a couple of scans it had a monster debris ball and debris was being lofted to 20,000'. That's a strong tornado. As a comparison, the Louisville EF-4 lofted debris 25,000'.

I hope no one was injured or homes lost.

[Dawg_Lover]

I honestly don't know. This storm has done way more than I thought it would ever do. I thought it would be confined much further south and even the current SPC outlook is saying that. I'm hoping those two rogue supercells that have been responsible for the tornado warnings are starting to be ingested into the main line. That will reduce the tornado threat so long as new ones don't develop. I need to be asleep but can't quit watching these storms. If they maintain intensity as they get closer then I'll ease into the truck and go take a look.

No driving into a 4th one okay?!
Be safe out there!

[parabrave]

Time for the live streaming chasers on youtube.

[parabrave]

It has since weakened but for a couple of scans it had a monster debris ball and debris was being lofted to 20,000'. That's a strong tornado. As a comparison, the Louisville EF-4 lofted debris 25,000'.

Hey Vdog yall might want to stay up a few more hours.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey Vdog yall might want to stay up a few more hours.

I'm trying. Storm doesn't look impressive on radar at the moment.

[Commercecomet24]

Looks like we're in the shooting gallery down here again!

[parabrave]

Looks like we're in the shooting gallery down here again!

It's just starting for you. Take a look to the west. And now NWS just upgraded the pine belt to a moderate risk/

[Commercecomet24]

It's just starting for you. Take a look to the west. And now NWS just upgraded the pine belt to a moderate risk/

Yeah they upgraded us about an hour ago. Not gonna be a fun day today!

[Dawg_Lover]

Yeah they upgraded us about an hour ago. Not gonna be a fun day today!


Y?all stay safe down there. I have a niece living with her grandmother near Soso.

[Bodawg]

Looks like a PDS is about to be issued for the southern half of the state. Many super cells ate ramping up.

[Commercecomet24]

Y?all stay safe down there. I have a niece living with her grandmother near Soso.

Thanks! I live in Shady Grove so she's not to far away!

[Bodawg]

Amazing amount of hook echoes forming

[Dawg_Lover]

Thanks! I live in Shady Grove so she's not too far away!

You really are then, because they are on 533 just north of Shady Grove-Moss Rd. You have more than your share of sketchy weather down there. Seems like every time I turn around, I am watching the radar in your part of the world. Hoping it winds down, for a while, after this.

[parabrave]

Amazing amount of hook echoes forming

Yep the NWS New Orleans has 4 active warnings ongoing from Madisonville to Mccomb

[KB21]

Yeah they upgraded us about an hour ago. Not gonna be a fun day today!

Yep, and I'm at the clinic today in Oak Grove with my wife and kids at home alone.

[Commercecomet24]

You really are then, because they are on 533 just north of Shady Grove-Moss Rd. You have more than your share of sketchy weather down there. Seems like every time I turn around, I am watching the radar in your part of the world. Hoping it winds down, for a while, after this.

Wow, she is close! Yeah it's always a shooting gallery down here. Hope they're safe. If there's every anything i can do for them, let me know!

[Commercecomet24]

Yep, and I'm at the clinic today in Oak Grove with my wife and kids at home alone.

Hope y'all stay safe and sound!

[Bodawg]

PDS warning for Jasper and Newton counties

[Dawg_Lover]

Wow, she is close! Yeah it's always a shooting gallery down here. Hope they're safe. If there's every anything i can do for them, let me know!

Thank you very much. I am sure her grandmother, Jan Blevins, would be appreciative. Thankfully, she has a lot of relatives nearby.

[Commercecomet24]

Thank you very much. I am sure her grandmother, Jan Blevins, would be appreciative. Thankfully, she has a lot of relatives nearby.

Great that they have family close by, that always helps.

[DownwardDawg]

I can't win for losing with all this weather stuff. Spent several years on the coast running from hurricanes. Moved away but my Dad stayed on the water in Bay St Louis until he passed in 2017. Even rebuilt after Katrina. Then I spent the rest of my life in Covington county on Hwy 84 dodging tornadoes. Finally got out of there, only to leave daughter, son in law, and granddaughter at my old place. My new home is northeast of Nashville on Old Hickory lake, Cumberland river. You know what'll happen next. Another damn flood I'm sure.

[Bodawg]

Heads up Hattiesburg Petal. Warned storm going into Purvis

[Dawg_Lover]

I can't win for losing with all this weather stuff. Spent several years on the coast running from hurricanes. Moved away but my Dad stayed on the water in Bay St Louis until he passed in 2017. Even rebuilt after Katrina. Then I spent the rest of my life in Covington county on Hwy 84 dodging tornadoes. Finally got out of there, only to leave daughter, son in law, and granddaughter at my old place. My new home is northeast of Nashville on Old Hickory lake, Cumberland river. You know what'll happen next. Another damn flood I'm sure.

Even though that area is beautiful, it is not so pretty when you are treading water. 😳

[DownwardDawg]

Covington county lookout!! Just talked to daughter. Warning happening now.

[KB21]

I can't win for losing with all this weather stuff. Spent several years on the coast running from hurricanes. Moved away but my Dad stayed on the water in Bay St Louis until he passed in 2017. Even rebuilt after Katrina. Then I spent the rest of my life in Covington county on Hwy 84 dodging tornadoes. Finally got out of there, only to leave daughter, son in law, and granddaughter at my old place. My new home is northeast of Nashville on Old Hickory lake, Cumberland river. You know what'll happen next. Another damn flood I'm sure.

I'd consider moving to Montana, but I'd have to deal with blizzards up there.

[shoeless joe]

That area gets hammered every single time. Collins to Raleigh to laurel is about as much of a tornado alley as there can be.

[KB21]

Hope y'all stay safe and sound!

Just got word that Hattiesburg Clinic is closing the clinic at 1:30.

[DownwardDawg]

Wow. This has turned out to be an unreal tornado day.

[DownwardDawg]

Just got word that Hattiesburg Clinic is closing the clinic at 1:30.

Maybe that's why I can't get Dr K office on the phone today.

[Really Clark?]

Ovett - Johnson in Jones Co has one on the ground

[RocketDawg]

I can't win for losing with all this weather stuff. Spent several years on the coast running from hurricanes. Moved away but my Dad stayed on the water in Bay St Louis until he passed in 2017. Even rebuilt after Katrina. Then I spent the rest of my life in Covington county on Hwy 84 dodging tornadoes. Finally got out of there, only to leave daughter, son in law, and granddaughter at my old place. My new home is northeast of Nashville on Old Hickory lake, Cumberland river. You know what'll happen next. Another damn flood I'm sure.

The Nashville area is certainly prone to flooding. Not sure about your particular area.

[RocketDawg]

Just flipped to the Weather Channel. Things are really popping in south Mississippi - tornado heading for Meridian at the moment.

[Commercecomet24]

Feels like I'm playing weather Russian roulette today. Geez

[DownwardDawg]

Feels like I'm playing weather Russian roulette today. Geez

You are..... unfortunately. Stay safe!!

[Dawg_Lover]

[Tornado Damage Reports so far today to NOAA NWS]

MADISON MS MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED OFF OF ROCK ROAD. (JAN)

MADISON MS DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES OFF RESERVOIR ... SOME DESTROYED. (JAN)

RANKIN MS POULTRY HOUSES DESTROYED IN OPEN FIELD. (JAN)

EVANGELINE LA PICTURE OF TORNADO IN A FIELD JUST WEST OF LA 29. (LCH)

IBERIA LA DEBRIS DETECTED ON RADAR. SKYCAM VIDEO OF LARGE TORNADO CROSSING 90 AND ADMIRAL DOYLE INTO THE SOUTH SIDE OF NEW IBERIA. (LCH)

IBERIA LA MEDICAL CENTER IN NEW IBERIA SUSTAINED DAMAGE. (LCH)

ASCENSION LA SPOTTER CONFIRMS TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN WEST OF DONALDSONVILLE. (LIX)

EVANGELINE LA NUMEROUS PARISH ROADS FLOODED. (LCH)

NEWTON MS TREES UPROOTED AND HOMES DAMAGED ABOUT 1 MILE NORTH OF HICKORY MS ALONG EDWARDS ROAD. (JAN)

NEWTON MS SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED AND SNAPPED ALONG ROSE ROAD IN HICKORY ... JUST NORTH OF I-20. (JAN)

FORREST MS STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOUSES AT THE INTERSECTION OF POP RUNNELS ROAD AND MACEDONIA ROAD IN PETAL. (JAN)

LAUDERDALE MS ROOF BLOWN OFF TRAILER NEAR TOOMSUBA. (JAN)

ST. CHARLES LA CONFIRMED DAMAGE ALONG SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD WITH A HOUSE DAMAGED ... POWER POLES AND STREET LIGHTS DOWN. (LIX)

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

[Commercecomet24]

You are..... unfortunately. Stay safe!!

Thanks man! Is your family ok? Looks like it's starting to settle down some hopefully!

[DownwardDawg]

Thanks man! Is your family ok? Looks like it's starting to settle down some hopefully!

They all good. Dodged it again it looks like!

[Commercecomet24]

They all good. Dodged it again it looks like!

So glad to hear! We managed to dodge it again too! I saw that wall cloud on 16th ave today. My office is right across the street from Laurel ford. When I heard the tornado warning I stepped outside and there it was just behind Laurel ford. So glad it broke up!

[DownwardDawg]

So glad to hear! We managed to dodge it again too! I saw that wall cloud on 16th ave today. My office is right across the street from Laurel ford. When I heard the tornado warning I stepped outside and there it was just behind Laurel ford. So glad it broke up!

Wow!! Glad y'all are ok!!!

[Commercecomet24]

Wow!! Glad y'all are ok!!!

Yep we're all good. Lot of warned storms today but thankfully it appears not a lot of damage and haven't heard of any injuries

[parabrave]

Snout to get poppin here on the Coast. Confirmed Tornado in E NO near JazzLand.

[Maverick91]

Mobile still looking to have a rough night?

[Homedawg]

They all good. Dodged it again it looks like!

glad you all are safe. rough day.

[DownwardDawg]

glad you all are safe. rough day.

Yes. Very rough day. Hopefully everyone is safe.

[parabrave]

Had a small tornado touchdown briefly at the Biloxi VA.