BeastMan
11-27-2013, 01:34 PM
It's funny how things work out. This is my favorite thing I write every week and takes the most time to compile and is the least read thing I do. I you want to give the page view http://3rdand57.com/things-to-watch-in-sec-games-1128-1130/
But I'm just going to copy and paste the whole thing. I love writing these.
Ole Miss at MSU (11/28)
-3rd down conversion is a huge stat for Ole Miss because it shows that they are on schedule. They are 5th in the SEC converting 46.58% of the time. MSU is 3rd in the SEC in 3rd down defense (35.17 %).
-The Ole Miss RB stable is averaging 6.53, 5.02, and 7.36 yards per carry. Better than MSU?s top 3 RBs but MSU has a better team rushing average of 4.87 yards per carry vs 4.79.
-Turnovers will be huge in this one. MSU is +5 and Ole Miss is +2 in turnover margin. Bo Wallace has only thrown 6 INTs all year long. MSU?s defense has 11 INTs and 10 are by 3 players. Both MSU and Ole Miss are at the top of the conference in forced fumbles. The Rebels have 12 and the Bulldogs have 11.
-Often times rivalry games come down to field goals. Ole Miss connects on a respectable 73.7 % of their attempts. MSU is 122nd out of 125 FBS teams only connecting 44.4% of the time.
Arkansas at LSU (11/29)
-The Hogs have lost 8 straight and have not beat a BCS opponent this year. That should stand traveling to Baton Rouge.
-You must score points to win the game (duh) and the Hogs are 109th in the nation in scoring offense (20.1 ppg). Meanwhile the LSU offense is 21rst in the nation in scoring (37.5 ppg).
-LSU has the SEC?s 3rd ranked QB in Zazh Mettenberger (266 ypg), 3rd RB in Jeremy Hill (104 ypg), and 3rd & 4th WRs in Odell Beckham (100.1 ypg) and Jarvis Landry (96.3 ypg).
-Arkansas has arguably the best young RB 1-2 punch in the SEC in freshman Alex Collins (90.73 ypg) and Jonathan Williams (76.55 ypg).
Florida State at Florida
-The Gators are coming off 6 straight losses where they have not scored over 20 points in a game. The Georgia Southern game is of note because GSU didn?t even complete a pass to beat the Gators.
-FSU brings the nations #2 scoring offense (55.2 ppg) and the nations #2 scoring defense (11.4 ppg). Oh my goodness.
-Jameis Winston has actually been better on the road this year. Away from Tallahassee he is averaging 322.3 ypg, 70% completion, 13 TD, 3 INT, and a rating of 194.98.
-When looking at turnover margin it gets worse. Florida is -1 on the year and FSU is +16.
Wake Forrest at Vandy
-Vandy is looking to position themselves better for their 3rd straight bowl game and 2nd straight 8 win season. The Dores have beaten the Deamon Deacons by 34 points for 2 years in a row.
-In Vandy?s last 3 games (all wins) the offense has only averaged 283 yards per game. Although they are heavy favorites, they must play a better offensive game to guarantee that 8th win.
-Wake Forrest has ensured themselves their 5th straight sub .500 year with their last winning season in 2008. They have not beaten Vandy since 2010 (before James Franklin?s arrival).
-The Dores defense has always been an attacking unit since Franklin?s arrival and this year is no different. They are 2nd in the SEC in TFLs and 5th in sacks.
Georgia Tech at Georgia
-Although it?s his first career start, UGA junior Hutson Mason is not a young guy that doesn?t know the system. Will be interesting to see how he does in his first start on the road in a rivalry game.
-With Mason in, expect heavy doses of RB Todd Gurley. He has had a nice year averaging 6.3 yards per carry and 97.63 yards per game.
-The bigest math-up of this fame is UGA?s SEC 3rd ranked rushing defense (138.09 ypg) vs Georgia Tech?s 5th ranked rushing attack in the nation (316.09 ypg).
-A key to the game is if GT can throw just a little bit to keep UGA honest. GT QB Vad Lee is statistically one of, if not ?the?, worst passers in college football. He has a 47.1 completion percentage and has 7 INTs going with only 8 TDs.
Alabama at Auburn
-My favorite stat here is the records. With Auburn at 10-1 and Bama at 11-0 this Iron Bowl will have National Championship implications. It?s nice for this storied rivalry to return to that.
-This isn?t your granddad?s Iron Bowl. Bama is the SEC?s 2nd ranked scoring offense (39.7 ppg) and Auburn is 4th (39 ppg). Fireworks anyone?
-This game matches up the SEC?s #1 rushing attack (Auburn, 320.27 ypg) vs the SEC?s #1 rushing defense (Bama, 91.27 ypg).
-Another game changing match-up is the SEC?s top redzone scoring offense (Auburn, scores 87.5 %) versus the SEC?s top redzone defense (Bama, allows scores only 60%).
Clemson at South Carolina
-Big time QB duel in Connor Shaw (61.8 % completion, 1,983 yards, 20 TDs, 1 INT. 417 rushing yards, 4 TDs) versus Tajh Boyd (67.3 % completion, 3,248 yards, 29 TDs, 7 INTs. 268 rushing yards, 8 TDs).
-Should be a fun offensive game with 2 of the better scoring offenses in the country. Clemson is 9th in the nation at 42.3 ppg and South Carolina is 32nd at 34.4. I?d suggest that when you take the conference?s defenses into account, those numbers are almost even.
-RB Mike Davis is the SEC?s top rusher averaging 111.20 yards per game. He has to be thinking he can have success on the Tigers who are 54th nationally against the run giving up 153.73 yards per game.
-When you look at scoring defenses, both teams are dead even. Clemson gives up 20.2 points per game and South Carolina gives up 20.3.
Tennessee at Kentucky
-This game is strictly a battle of pride. UT cannot get to a bowl at 4-7 and 2-9 Kentucky has not beaten a BCS conference opponent this year.
-Both teams are bottom half in the SEC in scoring offense and defense. UT is 11th in offense and defense and Kentucky is 12th in offense and 14th in defense.
-A game like this often comes down to who was coached better. UT is the SEC?s least penalized team and +2 in turnover margin. Kentucky is 5th most penalized and -1 in turnover margin.
-QB play has really hurt both teams and their passing numbers show it. The Vols are 13th and BBN is 10th. UT even has an awful 10-16 TD to INT ratio.
Texas A&M at Mizzou
-The Missouri Tigers control their own destiny to Atlanta for the SEC?s Championship Game. Win and their in and likely go to either the Sugar or Capital One Bowl.
-People don?t realize how good Missouri is. They are 13th in the nation in scoring offense (39.7 ppg) and 15th in scoring defense (19.3 ppg).
-The key to the game is stopping Johnny Manziel. He goes for 321.5 passing yards a game and 60.45 rushing yards per game. By the way he has 40 total TDs. Mizzou needs to watch the LSU tape for the last 2 years as they seem to be the only team that can slow him down.
-A&M?s offense is a scoring machine but Mizzou has the SEC?s 2nd ranked rushing attack (238 ypg) to counter that. A game-plan that controls the clock and flow of the game is a must against A&M.
But I'm just going to copy and paste the whole thing. I love writing these.
Ole Miss at MSU (11/28)
-3rd down conversion is a huge stat for Ole Miss because it shows that they are on schedule. They are 5th in the SEC converting 46.58% of the time. MSU is 3rd in the SEC in 3rd down defense (35.17 %).
-The Ole Miss RB stable is averaging 6.53, 5.02, and 7.36 yards per carry. Better than MSU?s top 3 RBs but MSU has a better team rushing average of 4.87 yards per carry vs 4.79.
-Turnovers will be huge in this one. MSU is +5 and Ole Miss is +2 in turnover margin. Bo Wallace has only thrown 6 INTs all year long. MSU?s defense has 11 INTs and 10 are by 3 players. Both MSU and Ole Miss are at the top of the conference in forced fumbles. The Rebels have 12 and the Bulldogs have 11.
-Often times rivalry games come down to field goals. Ole Miss connects on a respectable 73.7 % of their attempts. MSU is 122nd out of 125 FBS teams only connecting 44.4% of the time.
Arkansas at LSU (11/29)
-The Hogs have lost 8 straight and have not beat a BCS opponent this year. That should stand traveling to Baton Rouge.
-You must score points to win the game (duh) and the Hogs are 109th in the nation in scoring offense (20.1 ppg). Meanwhile the LSU offense is 21rst in the nation in scoring (37.5 ppg).
-LSU has the SEC?s 3rd ranked QB in Zazh Mettenberger (266 ypg), 3rd RB in Jeremy Hill (104 ypg), and 3rd & 4th WRs in Odell Beckham (100.1 ypg) and Jarvis Landry (96.3 ypg).
-Arkansas has arguably the best young RB 1-2 punch in the SEC in freshman Alex Collins (90.73 ypg) and Jonathan Williams (76.55 ypg).
Florida State at Florida
-The Gators are coming off 6 straight losses where they have not scored over 20 points in a game. The Georgia Southern game is of note because GSU didn?t even complete a pass to beat the Gators.
-FSU brings the nations #2 scoring offense (55.2 ppg) and the nations #2 scoring defense (11.4 ppg). Oh my goodness.
-Jameis Winston has actually been better on the road this year. Away from Tallahassee he is averaging 322.3 ypg, 70% completion, 13 TD, 3 INT, and a rating of 194.98.
-When looking at turnover margin it gets worse. Florida is -1 on the year and FSU is +16.
Wake Forrest at Vandy
-Vandy is looking to position themselves better for their 3rd straight bowl game and 2nd straight 8 win season. The Dores have beaten the Deamon Deacons by 34 points for 2 years in a row.
-In Vandy?s last 3 games (all wins) the offense has only averaged 283 yards per game. Although they are heavy favorites, they must play a better offensive game to guarantee that 8th win.
-Wake Forrest has ensured themselves their 5th straight sub .500 year with their last winning season in 2008. They have not beaten Vandy since 2010 (before James Franklin?s arrival).
-The Dores defense has always been an attacking unit since Franklin?s arrival and this year is no different. They are 2nd in the SEC in TFLs and 5th in sacks.
Georgia Tech at Georgia
-Although it?s his first career start, UGA junior Hutson Mason is not a young guy that doesn?t know the system. Will be interesting to see how he does in his first start on the road in a rivalry game.
-With Mason in, expect heavy doses of RB Todd Gurley. He has had a nice year averaging 6.3 yards per carry and 97.63 yards per game.
-The bigest math-up of this fame is UGA?s SEC 3rd ranked rushing defense (138.09 ypg) vs Georgia Tech?s 5th ranked rushing attack in the nation (316.09 ypg).
-A key to the game is if GT can throw just a little bit to keep UGA honest. GT QB Vad Lee is statistically one of, if not ?the?, worst passers in college football. He has a 47.1 completion percentage and has 7 INTs going with only 8 TDs.
Alabama at Auburn
-My favorite stat here is the records. With Auburn at 10-1 and Bama at 11-0 this Iron Bowl will have National Championship implications. It?s nice for this storied rivalry to return to that.
-This isn?t your granddad?s Iron Bowl. Bama is the SEC?s 2nd ranked scoring offense (39.7 ppg) and Auburn is 4th (39 ppg). Fireworks anyone?
-This game matches up the SEC?s #1 rushing attack (Auburn, 320.27 ypg) vs the SEC?s #1 rushing defense (Bama, 91.27 ypg).
-Another game changing match-up is the SEC?s top redzone scoring offense (Auburn, scores 87.5 %) versus the SEC?s top redzone defense (Bama, allows scores only 60%).
Clemson at South Carolina
-Big time QB duel in Connor Shaw (61.8 % completion, 1,983 yards, 20 TDs, 1 INT. 417 rushing yards, 4 TDs) versus Tajh Boyd (67.3 % completion, 3,248 yards, 29 TDs, 7 INTs. 268 rushing yards, 8 TDs).
-Should be a fun offensive game with 2 of the better scoring offenses in the country. Clemson is 9th in the nation at 42.3 ppg and South Carolina is 32nd at 34.4. I?d suggest that when you take the conference?s defenses into account, those numbers are almost even.
-RB Mike Davis is the SEC?s top rusher averaging 111.20 yards per game. He has to be thinking he can have success on the Tigers who are 54th nationally against the run giving up 153.73 yards per game.
-When you look at scoring defenses, both teams are dead even. Clemson gives up 20.2 points per game and South Carolina gives up 20.3.
Tennessee at Kentucky
-This game is strictly a battle of pride. UT cannot get to a bowl at 4-7 and 2-9 Kentucky has not beaten a BCS conference opponent this year.
-Both teams are bottom half in the SEC in scoring offense and defense. UT is 11th in offense and defense and Kentucky is 12th in offense and 14th in defense.
-A game like this often comes down to who was coached better. UT is the SEC?s least penalized team and +2 in turnover margin. Kentucky is 5th most penalized and -1 in turnover margin.
-QB play has really hurt both teams and their passing numbers show it. The Vols are 13th and BBN is 10th. UT even has an awful 10-16 TD to INT ratio.
Texas A&M at Mizzou
-The Missouri Tigers control their own destiny to Atlanta for the SEC?s Championship Game. Win and their in and likely go to either the Sugar or Capital One Bowl.
-People don?t realize how good Missouri is. They are 13th in the nation in scoring offense (39.7 ppg) and 15th in scoring defense (19.3 ppg).
-The key to the game is stopping Johnny Manziel. He goes for 321.5 passing yards a game and 60.45 rushing yards per game. By the way he has 40 total TDs. Mizzou needs to watch the LSU tape for the last 2 years as they seem to be the only team that can slow him down.
-A&M?s offense is a scoring machine but Mizzou has the SEC?s 2nd ranked rushing attack (238 ypg) to counter that. A game-plan that controls the clock and flow of the game is a must against A&M.