This week can change everything

[PikeDawg15]

The Egg bowl must be won by Mississippi State

No ifs ands or buts

We have to win this no matter what.

The momentum of the State of Mississippi can be totally flipped on its head in less 1 week of time.

I am 99% sure Lane Kiffin is the next Auburn head coach and anyone ole miss gets will be a down grade and they will lose so much momentum

The Old Money at Ole Miss is not hiring Deion Sanders.

If we win the egg and South Carolina loses to clemson, we have a 90%+ chance of heading to the Citrus Bowl and that is the best bowl game not in the NY6

A lot rides on this week and ole miss is majorly distracted.

We have to take advantage and do this right

Everything ole miss has built the last 3 years to get ahead of us can die and go down in flames in less than a week.

Their roster will be gutted, their recruits will be flipped, and their coach will be gone

We need to embarrass them on their home field and walk out of their with all the momentum in the world to take over the state again.

Coach Leach, I like you as a person and like ive said before I want to see you succeed

I have been negative ever since LSU game but if he wins this game thursday and everything else happens accordingly.

Our fanbase will be back on the pirate ship


WIN THE EGG SCREW THE REBELS

HAIL DAMN STATE

[TrapGame]

Win the Egg, win the bowl game and all will be well. Lane leaving will be the icing on the cake. I've already seen some rumors that Jeff Lebby is the guy a lot of boosters want to replace Lane. That doesn't exactly send shivers down my spine.

[PikeDawg15]

Win the Egg, win the bowl game and all will be well. Lane leaving will be the icing on the cake. I've already seen some rumors that Jeff Lebby is the guy a lot of boosters want to replace Lane. That doesn't exactly send shivers down my spine.

Doesnt scare me at all.

That will not be their first call though.

They have the money to spend they will try to offer matt rhule or lance leipold or some big name coach

They will probably have to settle for jeff lebby though.

I think this will demoralize their NIL efforts and momentum

[msstate7]

8-4 citrus bowl season would be quite impressive. I'm not a big leach guy, but this would be a successful season 99% of the time here... 2018 would be the exception

ETA... I'm having a hard time seeing us in citrus.

Georgia playoffs
Bama and Tenn in NY6
LSU in citrus

[Desoto1967]

Did TCU winning last week keep Tenn out of the NY6? If so wouldn't they go to Orlando?

[Quaoarsking]

Did TCU winning last week keep Tenn out of the NY6? If so wouldn't they go to Orlando?

Why would it have? TCU was going to be ranked higher than Tennessee anyway.

[msstate7]

Why would it have? TCU was going to be ranked higher than Tennessee anyway.

If Tenn wins this week, they'll still be NY6 imo. I don't think you can put lsu over them unless lsu wins... if lsu wins, they'll be in the playoffs

[Johnson85]

Did TCU winning last week keep Tenn out of the NY6? If so wouldn't they go to Orlando?

TCU didn't have anything to do with it I don't think. 4 SEC teams will have to be in NY6 games (so basically 1/3 of the NY6 Slots) for an 8-4 MSU team to have a shot at the Citrus, and the Big 12 is already guaranteed a spot, so TCU choking wouldn't open up a spot for the SEC. Right now, UGA is in. Barring an upset by A&M, I think LSU is in. They were 6th (behind UT) last week. Can't imagine losing to UGA in the SEC CG would put them out of the top 11. UTenn was 5th before losing to USCe, so it's just a question of how fall they fall. Does an UT with wins over LSU and Bama but losses to UGA and USCe fall outside of the top 11? The USCe loss isn't good, but the Bama and LSU wins are going to be better than any win most of the top 11 will have, the UGA will be as good of a loss as you can have, so it's just does a slip up against USCe kill them when they went 2-1 against top 10 teams? Also, not sure how you can put an LSU team that lost to FSU, UTenn, and UGA in over a UT team that has losses to UGA and USCe.

ETA: Also, even if we were the next logical team for the Citrus, we still likely wouldn't get picked. I think Citrus can skip over a team as long as there is no more than one game of difference in their records (or is that an old rule? Only rule now may be that the loser of the SEC CG can't fall below the Citrus). I think the Citrus would probably take USCe over MSU.

[Homedawg]

8-4 citrus bowl season would be quite impressive. I'm not a big leach guy, but this would be a successful season 99% of the time here... 2018 would be the exception

ETA... I'm having a hard time seeing us in citrus.

Georgia playoffs
Bama and Tenn in NY6
LSU in citrus

we aren't going to the citrus

[Quaoarsking]

Also if the Big 10 or Big 12 had an upset in their championship game, it might bump out an SEC team from the NY6, as TCU, Ohio State, and Michigan are all likely NY6 bound regardless.

[Desoto1967]

What if LSU somehow beats Georgia in Atlanta?

[was21]

All those excellent points....and why it probably ain't gonna happen

[ScoobaDawg]

win or retire. those are the only options to me.

[msudawg1200]

we aren't going to the citrus
Why do you say this? Do you not know how the bowl system works? If we win, and UGA, Bama, Tenn, and LSU stay in the NY6 Bowls, which they should, we should be in the Citrus as long as Clemson beats SCar.

[Quaoarsking]

What if LSU somehow beats Georgia in Atlanta?

Georgia still goes to the CFP and LSU still goes to a non-CFP NY6

[Commercecomet24]

I really like Leach but losing a third straight egg bowl would not be good at all. Win the Egg and a bowl game and finish 9-4 would be a great year. A lot hinges on Thursday night. Nut cuttin time!

[TrapGame]

Not to hijack the thread, but without Hooker I wouldn't be surprised if Vandy beats Tennessee.

[Cooterpoot]

Everything? No. Our recruiting is still bad. But Leach can gain some support for sure.

[RiverCityDawg]

we aren't going to the citrus

Are you just saying you don't think we win the egg bowl?

Or are you saying LSU is going to lose to A&M, Tennessee is going to lose to Vandy or South Carolina is going to beat Clemson?

Because if we win the egg bowl and all those favorites win and stay in the top 12 of the CFP rankings, we would be in the Citrus.

[PikeDawg15]

If Tenn wins this week, they'll still be NY6 imo. I don't think you can put lsu over them unless lsu wins... if lsu wins, they'll be in the playoffs

LSU will be in the NY6 regardless.

If anyone is getting lowered its bama

Tennessee beat bama 10-2

LSU beat bama 10-2

I also see it hard not putting bama in the NY6 as a 10-2 team this year with the current bowl line up

Thats why I see Georgia , LSU, Tennessee, and bama all in the NY6

Leaving the Citrus to us, ole miss, or south carolina

[Saltydog]

Tell our run defense all this because they're going to have a tough night I'm afraid.

[PikeDawg15]

TCU didn't have anything to do with it I don't think. 4 SEC teams will have to be in NY6 games (so basically 1/3 of the NY6 Slots) for an 8-4 MSU team to have a shot at the Citrus, and the Big 12 is already guaranteed a spot, so TCU choking wouldn't open up a spot for the SEC. Right now, UGA is in. Barring an upset by A&M, I think LSU is in. They were 6th (behind UT) last week. Can't imagine losing to UGA in the SEC CG would put them out of the top 11. UTenn was 5th before losing to USCe, so it's just a question of how fall they fall. Does an UT with wins over LSU and Bama but losses to UGA and USCe fall outside of the top 11? The USCe loss isn't good, but the Bama and LSU wins are going to be better than any win most of the top 11 will have, the UGA will be as good of a loss as you can have, so it's just does a slip up against USCe kill them when they went 2-1 against top 10 teams? Also, not sure how you can put an LSU team that lost to FSU, UTenn, and UGA in over a UT team that has losses to UGA and USCe.

ETA: Also, even if we were the next logical team for the Citrus, we still likely wouldn't get picked. I think Citrus can skip over a team as long as there is no more than one game of difference in their records (or is that an old rule? Only rule now may be that the loser of the SEC CG can't fall below the Citrus). I think the Citrus would probably take USCe over MSU.

The citrus will be the highest ranked SEC team in the CFB playoff poll that isnt in the NY6

[PikeDawg15]

Why do you say this? Do you not know how the bowl system works? If we win, and UGA, Bama, Tenn, and LSU stay in the NY6 Bowls, which they should, we should be in the Citrus as long as Clemson beats SCar.

He is probably saying that because he thinks Ole Miss will win

Which is what im also predicting

But im just laying out the easy scenario

Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, and Alabama will all be in the NY6 inside the top 12

UGA to playoff

Tennessee to the Sugar Bowl

LSU to the Orange bowl

Alabama to the cotton bowl

That leaves South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Ole miss as the only teams that can get in the Citrus from the sec

South Carolina beats clemson then state and Ole miss are both eliminated. Win or lose

[Coach34]

Fiesta and Peach are playoff games

That leaves:

Sugar- Bama vs K-State
Rose- Michigan vs Oregon
Orange- Tennessee vs Clemson
Cotton- Penn State vs Tulane???

LSU gonna fall to Citrus with that 3rd loss. A Non-P5 has to be included plus ND likely sneaks into one.

Then the rest fights over us, Mississippi, SC, Fla, Kentucky, and UPig

[Coach34]

I dont see any way the SEC gets 3 in the other 4 games with P12, G5, B12, ACC

Cotton filled by the playoff committee

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Texas, Las Vegas seem like the likely destinations

[PGHBulldogBG]

Texas, Las Vegas seem like the likely destinations

Definitely one of those with a loss. With a win I think it’s Gator or Outback if we win

[Johnson85]

I dont see any way the SEC gets 3 in the other 4 games with P12, G5, B12, ACC

Cotton filled by the playoff committee

Fiesta and Peach Bowl are the playoff bowls this year, so put UGA in one of those.
Sugar Bowl is SEC v. Big 12 - Let's just put Bama there since they'll be 10-2.
Rose Bowl is limited to Big 10 v. PAC-12? So no option there.
Orange Bowl - ACC v. Big 10, SEC, or Notre Dame. Let's just assume the ORange Bowl wants an SEC team, say a 10-2 UT team.
Cotton - highest rated G5 champion v. ???

So it's possible, we'd just have to have Orange Bowl choose an SEC team over the third best Big 10 team and Notre Dame and the 4th best SEC team be higher ranked than the next best alternative for the Cotton?

[Desoto1967]

LSU

[DownwardDawg]

I really like Leach but losing a third straight egg bowl would not be good at all. Win the Egg and a bowl game and finish 9-4 would be a great year. A lot hinges on Thursday night. Nut cuttin time!

I agree 100%. As disappointed as I've been this year, a lot would change with 2 more wins.

[PikeDawg15]

Fiesta and Peach are playoff games

That leaves:

Sugar- Bama vs K-State
Rose- Michigan vs Oregon
Orange- Tennessee vs Clemson
Cotton- Penn State vs Tulane???

LSU gonna fall to Citrus with that 3rd loss. A Non-P5 has to be included plus ND likely sneaks into one.

Then the rest fights over us, Mississippi, SC, Fla, Kentucky, and UPig

There are going to be some pissed off people if a 10-2 Tennessee who beat alabama is ranked lower than a 10-2 bama

also a 3 loss LSU being ranked over 10-2 Tennessee who blew LSU out would also be a horrible look by the committee.

I totally forgot about Penn State being there at 10-2.

If you take a look at the current rankings

Your right penn state is in the cotton bowl if they win out and beat michigan state and Tulane will be in that bowl game also.

I would be a lot more interested in LSU vs Tulane because of both Louisiana teams.

But what I do think your wrong about is that I think a 10-3 LSU team will get a higher ranking than a 10-2 bama because of head to head

bama would fall to citrus in that scenario that penn state wins out

[maroonmania]

We might as well going ahead and concede the Egg to OM now. Significant rainfall expected Thursday night which totally negates our offense. We don't win games in bad weather with this Air Raid we are running.

[BuckyIsAB****]

we aren't going to the citrus

Yep. And I for one couldnt care less. The Egg. Sign me up for an Egg win and a Birimingham
Bowl loss if thats what it takes

[msudawglb]

I think there's not a chance in hell that Tennessee gets in the NY6 games. The CFP polls rank teams by how good they are playing at that week. And they rank based on how good a team is with injuries in play. TN is going to drop alot tonight. That beatdown by SC was bad, but loosing your QB is worse. I think they will drop out and be slotted for Citrus or the next bowl down.

Georgia, Bama, LSU are lined up for the NY6 or better.



LSU will be in the NY6 regardless.

If anyone is getting lowered its bama

Tennessee beat bama 10-2

LSU beat bama 10-2

I also see it hard not putting bama in the NY6 as a 10-2 team this year with the current bowl line up

Thats why I see Georgia , LSU, Tennessee, and bama all in the NY6

Leaving the Citrus to us, ole miss, or south carolina

[Cowbell]

Everything? No. Our recruiting is still bad. But Leach can gain some support for sure.

This

[Goldendawg]

We might as well going ahead and concede the Egg to OM now. Significant rainfall expected Thursday night which totally negates our offense. We don't win games in bad weather with this Air Raid we are running.

Throwing 5 to 10 yard passes shouldn't be that hard, even in the rain.*******

[sandjunky]

The Egg bowl must be won by Mississippi State

No ifs ands or buts

We have to win this no matter what.

The momentum of the State of Mississippi can be totally flipped on its head in less 1 week of time.

I am 99% sure Lane Kiffin is the next Auburn head coach and anyone ole miss gets will be a down grade and they will lose so much momentum

The Old Money at Ole Miss is not hiring Deion Sanders.

If we win the egg and South Carolina loses to clemson, we have a 90%+ chance of heading to the Citrus Bowl and that is the best bowl game not in the NY6

A lot rides on this week and ole miss is majorly distracted.

We have to take advantage and do this right

Everything ole miss has built the last 3 years to get ahead of us can die and go down in flames in less than a week.

Their roster will be gutted, their recruits will be flipped, and their coach will be gone

We need to embarrass them on their home field and walk out of their with all the momentum in the world to take over the state again.

Coach Leach, I like you as a person and like ive said before I want to see you succeed

I have been negative ever since LSU game but if he wins this game thursday and everything else happens accordingly.

Our fanbase will be back on the pirate ship


WIN THE EGG SCREW THE REBELS

HAIL DAMN STATE

Doesnt really change much in my mind except he won a game he should win

I love crazy uncle leach - advocated for him for years - but this version of him is boring and hard to watch - zero explosiveness against any team with a pulse

[Coach34]

I love crazy uncle leach - advocated for him for years - but this version of him is boring and hard to watch - zero explosiveness against any team with a pulse

Zero explosiveness period. We are last in the SEC in plays of 30+

http://cfbstats.com/2022/leader/911/team/offense/split01/category30/sort03.html

12th in the SEC in plays of 20+

http://cfbstats.com/2022/leader/911/team/offense/split01/category30/sort02.html

[confucius say]

Zero explosiveness period. We are last in the SEC in plays of 30+

http://cfbstats.com/2022/leader/911/team/offense/split01/category30/sort03.html

12th in the SEC in plays of 20+

http://cfbstats.com/2022/leader/911/team/offense/split01/category30/sort02.html

I'm honestly surprised we're 8th in 10+

[starkvegasdawg]

Zero explosiveness period. We are last in the SEC in plays of 30+

http://cfbstats.com/2022/leader/911/team/offense/split01/category30/sort03.html

12th in the SEC in plays of 20+

http://cfbstats.com/2022/leader/911/team/offense/split01/category30/sort02.html

How about plays 5 or less?

[OhGee]

IMO the problem is the QB. Watch from the stands. WRs get open. Rogers doesn't see them. He left points on the board vs UGA and AU that I remember. Had Thomas open behind the safety and checked it down instead. Happens all the time.

Even against East TN on the 4th & 1 pass play call. Never mind the play call...captain check down had a RB wide open for a check down and an easy first down, but he didn't throw there. Turned the ball over on downs.

[TrapGame]

IMO the problem is the QB. Watch from the stands. WRs get open. Rogers doesn't see them. He left points on the board vs UGA and AU that I remember. Had Thomas open behind the safety and checked it down instead. Happens all the time.

Even against East TN on the 4th & 1 pass play call. Never mind the play call...captain check down had a RB wide open for a check down and an easy first down, but he didn't throw there. Turned the ball over on downs.

This offense is only as good as Will. Unfortunately, Will has reached his ceiling. Leach calls the plays but he's not the guy staring down a wide-open receiver 30 yards down the field then taking the dump pass for 5.

[PGHBulldogBG]

Even if LSU loses the SEC title, Bama should not get a NY6 and LSU get a lesser bowl. They both finished the regular season 10-2 and LSU beat them head to head. Just because they got to the title game and lost should not penalize them

[Jarius]

we aren't going to the citrus

If we win the egg bow there is about a 90 % chance we are in the citrus bowl.

[DownwardDawg]

Ole Miss sucks horribly against the run. How about the 3-5 yard pass? Should be the same along with our occasional run right???

[Coach34]

If we win the egg bow there is about a 90 % chance we are in the citrus bowl.

This remains incorrect no matter how many times you type it. The chances of the SEC getting 3 teams in the remaining 4 games are extremely slim.

[lastmajordog]

Good Grief, no matter the bowl, if the “DOGS” don’t do better than last year I would rather them not go and save the embarrassment.

[Cowbell]

Good Grief, no matter the bowl, if the “DOGS” don’t do better than last year I would rather them not go and save the embarrassment.

People seem to forget how bad we have been in bowls lately....

[Jarius]

This remains incorrect no matter how many times you type it. The chances of the SEC getting 3 teams in the remaining 4 games are extremely slim.

No it’s not. It’s almost a guarantee that the sec gets a playoff team and 3 others into the NY6. So long as Tennessee doesn’t lose to Vandy or lsu doesn’t lose to A&M, the egg bowl winner is getting the citrus bowl. Period. End of discussion.

[DownwardDawg]

This offense is only as good as Will. Unfortunately, Will has reached his ceiling. Leach calls the plays but he's not the guy staring down a wide-open receiver 30 yards down the field then taking the dump pass for 5.

Image this offense with Hendon Hooker.

[smootness]

Ok, here’s how it works:
Peach and Fiesta are untied to any conference, but they are the CFP semis this year.
Cotton is also untied, so the CFP will choose it; it will be a G5 and the highest ranked team not in another bowl.
Sugar - SEC vs B12
Rose - B10 vs P12
Orange - ACC vs highest ranked SEC/B10/ND.

So it’s all going to depend. And it will come down to one Cotton slot and one Orange slot, and the highest ranked teams who aren’t already tied into other bowls will take those slots. But unless the SEC gets 2 teams in the playoff, they would have to get BOTH of those slots to get 4 in the NY6. That is possible but by no means a guarantee. It’s all because the Peach and Fiesta are the semifinal games. If 2 or 3 of the non-CFP NY6 were untied to specific conference slots, it would be just about a guarantee the SEC would get 4 in. But since only 1 is untied (Cotton), it makes it much harder.

Let’s take the current ranking and assume Ohio State beats Michigan, UGA beats LSU, and every other team wins out and remains ranked where they are in the order. The CFP would likely be UGA, OSU, TCU, and USC. Then Rose would be Michigan vs Oregon, Sugar would be LSU vs Kansas St, Orange would be Clemson vs Bama, and Cotton would be Tulane/Cincy vs Tennessee. So the SEC would get 4 in. BUT that’s certainly not a given. It’s probably going to come down to whether someone can jump Tennessee, assuming they and Bama win this week (though not a guarantee). Tennessee needs to stay ahead of Penn St, Kansas St, and Notre Dame. If that happens, the SEC probably does get 4 NY6 teams in, assuming something crazy like LSU getting destroyed and falling to 11-12 (would be a pretty big surprise) doesn’t happen.

If Penn State jumped Tennessee for some reason, Tennessee would bump down to the Citrus. If Kansas St beats TCU and Clemson gets into the CFP by winning the ACC, Kansas St and TCU probably both get ranked ahead of Tennessee, and Tennessee again gets the Citrus. Oregon beating USC could throw a wrench in things as well, if USC still remains above Tennessee. Notre Dame jumping Tennessee seems unlikely even if they beat USC, but it’s possible. Also, if Oregon beats USC and Clemson makes the CFP and USC stays above Tennessee then FSU goes to the Orange and that makes it basically impossible for the SEC to get 4 in.

So first, Bama and Tennessee need to win, obviously. Then it will come down to Tennessee vs Penn St and also will depend on games like the P12 championship, ND/USC, B12 championship, again assuming LSU doesn’t fall crazy far.

I’d say 4 SEC teams in is probable but more like a 50-60ish% likelihood, not 90+. Just too many possibilities there to be that high.

[duncflydawg]

Thanks for that explanation.