Saturday Sunshine-pumping State Stats

[Tater]

Woke up feeling great this morning and flight number one was good. Got time before Flight number two to Philly for the week for work and the sun is out and bright in this terminal. So feels appropriate to be irrationally optimistic and post some stats that hopefully don't age poorly.

Mike Leach is 8-0 all time as a head coach when his team has 35 or more rushing attempts.
- 2-0 at State. Kentucky last year is the other game.

State leads the nation in red zone TD % at 90.48%. 14 Straight TD trips.
- The Air Raid can't score in the red zone myth needs to end. It's proven it's worth to this point. If it struggles against Bama / Georgia then that's just a talent issue and not a scheme issue.

Mississippi State had never scored 40+ points in back to back SEC West wins ever.
- Closest we had under Mullen was 2016 58-42 loss to Arkansas -> 55-20 win @ OM -> 2017 37-7 win vs. LSU.

Mississippi State is 4-2 against the reverse teaser spread. (Meaning you take the spread and make us have to cover 7 points extra. So instead of -3.5 tonight, we'd need to cover -10.5).
- As a gambler who loves being a homer. This is insane. Making hand over fist on my homer bets at great odds. Yes I threw some more today.

Mississippi State is #3 in FPI's game control metric.
- Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule. We're so good according to computers. We have the most ball control offense that I've seen as a passing offense. It's even more ball control than Mullen's offenses. Simply nuts.

We're 1-0 against Kentucky in debuting new Baseball themed uniforms.
- Hail State

[BulldogBear]

Woke up feeling great this morning and flight number one was good. Got time before Flight number two to Philly for the week for work and the sun is out and bright in this terminal. So feels appropriate to be irrationally optimistic and post some stats that hopefully don't age poorly.

Mike Leach is 8-0 all time as a head coach when his team has 35 or more rushing attempts.
- 2-0 at State. Kentucky last year is the other game.

State leads the nation in red zone TD % at 90.48%. 14 Straight TD trips.
- The Air Raid can't score in the red zone myth needs to end. It's proven it's worth to this point. If it struggles against Bama / Georgia then that's just a talent issue and not a scheme issue.

Mississippi State had never scored 40+ points in back to back SEC West wins ever.
- Closest we had under Mullen was 2016 58-42 loss to Arkansas -> 55-20 win @ OM -> 2017 37-7 win vs. LSU.

Mississippi State is 4-2 against the reverse teaser spread. (Meaning you take the spread and make us have to cover 7 points extra. So instead of -3.5 tonight, we'd need to cover -10.5).
- As a gambler who loves being a homer. This is insane. Making hand over fist on my homer bets at great odds. Yes I threw some more today.

Mississippi State is #3 in FPI's game control metric.
- Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule. We're so good according to computers. We have the most ball control offense that I've seen as a passing offense. It's even more ball control than Mullen's offenses. Simply nuts.

We're 1-0 against Kentucky in debuting new Baseball themed uniforms.
- Hail State

It is also notable on your first stat that not only is Leach 8-0 but all 8 were P5 opponents.

[Catfish]

Woke up feeling great this morning and flight number one was good. Got time before Flight number two to Philly for the week for work and the sun is out and bright in this terminal. So feels appropriate to be irrationally optimistic and post some stats that hopefully don't age poorly.

Mike Leach is 8-0 all time as a head coach when his team has 35 or more rushing attempts.
- 2-0 at State. Kentucky last year is the other game.

State leads the nation in red zone TD % at 90.48%. 14 Straight TD trips.
- The Air Raid can't score in the red zone myth needs to end. It's proven it's worth to this point. If it struggles against Bama / Georgia then that's just a talent issue and not a scheme issue.

Mississippi State had never scored 40+ points in back to back SEC West wins ever.
- Closest we had under Mullen was 2016 58-42 loss to Arkansas -> 55-20 win @ OM -> 2017 37-7 win vs. LSU.

Mississippi State is 4-2 against the reverse teaser spread. (Meaning you take the spread and make us have to cover 7 points extra. So instead of -3.5 tonight, we'd need to cover -10.5).
- As a gambler who loves being a homer. This is insane. Making hand over fist on my homer bets at great odds. Yes I threw some more today.

Mississippi State is #3 in FPI's game control metric.
- Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule. We're so good according to computers. We have the most ball control offense that I've seen as a passing offense. It's even more ball control than Mullen's offenses. Simply nuts.

We're 1-0 against Kentucky in debuting new Baseball themed uniforms.
- Hail State

Good post Tater, I think tonight's game hinges on whether or not we can run the ball. If we come out like we did last week against Arkansas we're gonna win.

[smootness]

There is some truth to Leach's offense being more effective when it has more balance, but stats about a team's win % when they run the ball a certain number of times are always skewed somewhat because teams who are ahead are always more likely to run the ball than teams who are behind. So it's not always clear what is the cause and what is the effect there.

[Tater]

There is some truth to Leach's offense being more effective when it has more balance, but stats about a team's win % when they run the ball a certain number of times are always skewed somewhat because teams who are ahead are always more likely to run the ball than teams who are behind. So it's not always clear what is the cause and what is the effect there.

Yep. There's liars. There's damn liars. And then there is statisticians.

But anyways. State -16.5 +390 is my homerific play of the day. Let's crush them.