Bill Connelly is an idiot [Archive]

Homedawg

10-11-2022, 02:22 PM

He thinks Kentucky is going to win like 26-25.

Has he not watched any football this year?

While I disagree w him. I don't think it's outlandish to think we could lose. We lost to LSU didn't we. They aren't any good either. If we played Uk ten times I think we'd win 8. But there are those 2 out there. Just can't be Saturday

R2Dawg

10-11-2022, 02:28 PM

While I disagree w him. I don't think it's outlandish to think we could lose. We lost to LSU didn't we. They aren't any good either. If we played Uk ten times I think we'd win 8. But there are those 2 out there. Just can't be Saturday

Agreed. It is a game we could lose but many things must go wrong for that to happen.

It is stupid for this to be anyone's realist pick though that has watched UK and us play.

Commercecomet24

10-11-2022, 02:29 PM

Agreed. It is a game we could lose but many things must go wrong for that to happen.

It is stupid for this to be anyone's realist pick though that has watched UK and us play.

Yeah you can never take anything for granted in the sec, and especially this year. bama came within a hair of losing to a team we dominated and uga couldve easily lost to missouri. Yes we should win, but any given saturday.

ETA I expect us to win.

BrunswickDawg

10-11-2022, 02:35 PM

Yeah you can never take anything for granted in the sec, and especially this year. bama came within a hair of losing to a team we dominated and uga couldve easily lost to missouri. Yes we should win, but any given saturday.

ETA I expect us to win.

And, while I hate agreeing with C34, this has become a "home team" series again - since 2015 the home team has won. Analysts are right to look at this as a tough SEC road game for us because it typically is.

I still think we win big.

ETA - I really wish this game could stay on our "rivalry" list as a permanent team when the schedule changes. Prior to UK becoming a regular on the schedule, we were 6-10 against them.
Since we started playing them annually in 1990, we are 20-12.

Saltydog

10-11-2022, 02:37 PM

There's a lot of awfully over confident people on this board these days. Should we beat them, "yes". Will we, "more than likely". Is it a given, "NO".

Remember 2018 in Lexington?

redstickdawg

10-11-2022, 02:44 PM

There's a lot of awfully over confident people on this board these days. Should we beat them, "yes". Will we, "more than likely". Is it a given, "NO".

Remember 2018 in Lexington?

Remember too well, that was when I first noticed that we really lacked discipline under jomo. We had several bad penalties for late hits and other extra bs and he was clueless. We were definitely the better team on paper.

William Tecumsah Sherman

10-11-2022, 02:47 PM

Every week is different. We ran the Aggies off the field. They damn near beat Bama in TTown, given the reigning Heisman winner didn?t play.

TrapGame

10-11-2022, 02:50 PM

There's a lot of awfully over confident people on this board these days. Should we beat them, "yes". Will we, "more than likely". Is it a given, "NO".

Remember 2018 in Lexington?

Completely different. JoMo ain't calling plays long distance on a landline anymore.

And looking at the UK boards 80% of their fans think we smoke them Saturday night.

Kentucky fans wish they had that 2018 DL back.

And let's not forget their OL has given up 25 sacks in 6 games. They ain't fixing that mess in a week.

Now throw in a gimpy QB that's thinking about his draft stock.

Not picking us to win this game is insane. Could we lay a turd? Sure, but I don't think so.

Coach34

10-11-2022, 02:52 PM

Normally I'd be very worried about this game but Ive watched Kentucky the last 2 weeks and they are so soft upfront. Thats their problem this year and will hamper them down the line.

memsu06

10-11-2022, 02:53 PM

There's a lot of awfully over confident people on this board these days. Should we beat them, "yes". Will we, "more than likely". Is it a given, "NO".

Remember 2018 in Lexington?

Sure I remember that game. That's when we figured out Morehead wasn't the best coach for us. Very undisciplined football that game. Absolutely no adjustments to the offense. We were better than them, but we didn't play like it.

If we play them like we've been playing I have absolutely no questions we're going to win. Our LSU loss was the wakeup call this team needed and we're playing better football now. If we play LSU today we beat them.

Kentucky has looked like crap all year in every game I watched them play. Sure they won some, but it was ugly. We have better playmakers on both sides of the ball.

Remember Will Levis won't be 100% for them either. Be interesting if he can put heat on his throws with turf toe. Hello I'd like to introduce you to Forbes who will probably get a pick 6 due to underthrows.

CaptainObvious

10-11-2022, 02:54 PM

Remember too well, that was when I first noticed that we really lacked discipline under jomo. We had several bad penalties for late hits and other extra bs and he was clueless. We were definitely the better team on paper.

Ah yes. The old on paper Paper Tiger quote from yesteryear.

Don?t compare us to Oklahoma. They are the King of Paper Tigers. Notre Dame is the Queen of Paper Tigers. A & M is the Jack of Paper Tigers!

On paper MSU is middle of the pack most years. Most years, we prove them wrong. Either we are better then paper shows?. Or we are worse than paper shows. Because of Coaching in 2018, State ended up worse than the Paper suggested.

Commercecomet24

10-11-2022, 02:54 PM

Normally I'd be very worried about this game but Ive watched Kentucky the last 2 weeks and they are so soft upfront. Thats their problem this year and will hamper them down the line.

This, they are very soft on both los and we are extremely physical. Bad matchup for them.

basedog

10-11-2022, 03:01 PM

Winning on the road in the Sec is tough, we should win but IF we don't play a complete game anything could happen.

TrapGame

10-11-2022, 03:04 PM

Normally I'd be very worried about this game but Ive watched Kentucky the last 2 weeks and they are so soft upfront. Thats their problem this year and will hamper them down the line.

25 sacks in 6 games. Worst OL in the SEC.

Jack Lambert

10-11-2022, 03:08 PM

We are not the same team that went into Baton Rough. There is a fire that got lite on this team. They are playing mentally and physically on a whole different level. We are the best team they have faced all season. They look crappy in every game so far. Bill has not watched ours or KY games or he would not say that.

parabrave

10-11-2022, 03:09 PM

Winning on the road in the Sec is tough, we should win but IF we don't play a complete game anything could happen.

We will Skull F them. Leach is focused as shit and it appears so is the Team. He knows that this year can be special and after the LSU game debacle he means not to repeat that second half. Dam I'm sounding like BSD.

somebodyshotmypaw

10-11-2022, 03:14 PM

I think you could watch football and still pick UK by 1. Their QB will be back, it's in Lexington, etc. I don't agree with his prediction, but I don't think it's an idiotic prediction.

If we play well we win by at least 14. We are the better team. But this league is tough. If we look past Kentucky we will lose.

Commercecomet24

10-11-2022, 03:14 PM

Winning on the road in the Sec is tough, we should win but IF we don't play a complete game anything could happen.

Yes, no matter what anyone says every sec win is tough and earned, especially road games. There are no gimmes, and thats why i hate hearing people put down any sec win with the "well they were bad" stuff. Simply not true.

Goldendawg

10-11-2022, 03:16 PM

The best team that they have played is OM, who is over rated just like them. They gave that game away and their QB helped. A bad OL and a QB with turf toe is not a winning combination. We will need to contain their RB, buy we have done that the last two weeks. Us: Enough. Them: Less. We lead start to finish, but a little more drama since it is on the road. Hail State!

Eric Nies Grind Time

10-11-2022, 03:18 PM

He thinks Kentucky is going to win like 26-25.

Has he not watched any football this year?

Its not him that thinks that, it's the model he runs. I am guessing the model does not account for injured starting QB's either. So this is a prediction based on a full strength Levis.

somebodyshotmypaw

10-11-2022, 03:20 PM

Its not him that thinks that, it's the model he runs. I am guessing the model does not account for injured starting QB's either.

I we score 25 points it means we had 4 touchdowns and went 1 for 4 on extra point attempts.

Tater

10-11-2022, 03:24 PM

I we score 25 points it means we had 4 touchdowns and went 1 for 4 on extra point attempts.

It's an average from a model that simulates thousands of iterations of the game.

Data analysis ain't rocket surgery.

somebodyshotmypaw

10-11-2022, 03:32 PM

It's an average from a model that simulates thousands of iterations of the game.

Data analysis ain't rocket surgery.

I was just poking fun at our issues with kicking extra points.

Johnson85

10-11-2022, 03:39 PM

And, while I hate agreeing with C34, this has become a "home team" series again - since 2015 the home team has won. Analysts are right to look at this as a tough SEC road game for us because it typically is.

I still think we win big.

ETA - I really wish this game could stay on our "rivalry" list as a permanent team when the schedule changes. Prior to UK becoming a regular on the schedule, we were 6-10 against them.
Since we started playing them annually in 1990, we are 20-12.

It's been a home series, but it's mostly just that UK sucks on the road, not that we havfe inexplicably sucked on the road. We have just had problems every other year since 2015. 2016, we were dealing with leadership issues after Dak left and mainly dealing with Sirmone being our DC. We lose a close one on the road.

2017, we have Grantham, and FItzgerald is established, and we roll at home.

2018, we have JoMo showing us why he can't be a head coach and we still hang close until our defense just gets worn out.

2019, even with JoMo and a screwed up team, UK manages to lose to us.

2020, we are dealing with installing air raid in a shortened off season. They win b/c we suck. We also suck at home mostly though.

2021, we show competence off and on throughout the season and beat them at home.

So I would say it's really hard for them to win in Starkville, but when we are at Lexington it's mostly been about us being shitty. Certainly home field matters, but I don't think we have really underperformed in Lexington.

TrapGame

10-11-2022, 03:48 PM

The crowd may be a little lighter at Kroger Field too. A lot of UK folks putting their tickets up for sale. The USC loss really spoiled their season.

R2Dawg

10-11-2022, 03:53 PM

There's a lot of awfully over confident people on this board these days. Should we beat them, "yes". Will we, "more than likely". Is it a given, "NO".

Remember 2018 in Lexington?

18 was Joe with his head up his....

If CML had not shown ability to adapt like he has since LSU I'd be less optimistic. Also the fact that UK is not as good up front as they have been in years past. This game should be back to business as usual for MSU teams beating UK.

Could we lose, sure. No MSU fan is saying we can't lose to anyone. But it shouldn't happen this year.

memsu06

10-11-2022, 04:17 PM

Also, remember last year Will had one of his best games ever against Kentucky. I think this completion percentage was insanely high.

BrunswickDawg

10-11-2022, 04:23 PM

It's been a home series, but it's mostly just that UK sucks on the road, not that we havfe inexplicably sucked on the road. We have just had problems every other year since 2015. 2016, we were dealing with leadership issues after Dak left and mainly dealing with Sirmone being our DC. We lose a close one on the road.

2017, we have Grantham, and FItzgerald is established, and we roll at home.

2018, we have JoMo showing us why he can't be a head coach and we still hang close until our defense just gets worn out.

2019, even with JoMo and a screwed up team, UK manages to lose to us.

2020, we are dealing with installing air raid in a shortened off season. They win b/c we suck. We also suck at home mostly though.

2021, we show competence off and on throughout the season and beat them at home.

So I would say it's really hard for them to win in Starkville, but when we are at Lexington it's mostly been about us being shitty. Certainly home field matters, but I don't think we have really underperformed in Lexington.

As fans, we all know this. From a sports writer perspective who only looks at scores and W/L (if that), they care nothing about what you wrote and don't care to find out anything deeper - hence the 26-25 outcome prediction.

Maverick91

10-11-2022, 04:38 PM

Its not him that thinks that, it's the model he runs. I am guessing the model does not account for injured starting QB's either. So this is a prediction based on a full strength Levis.

This model must not adjust week to week. This seems like a preseason prediction.

Mjoelner34

10-11-2022, 04:39 PM

And, while I hate agreeing with C34, this has become a "home team" series again - since 2015 the home team has won.

On the surface it appears that way if you look only at the locations and the scores but it really isn't.

2016: Peter Sirmon. We gave up 40pts.
2018: Shit-show Joe tried to turn Fitz into Dan Marino on a cold, wet night.
2020: 3rd game in the air raid plus 6 ints. UK only had 157 yds of offense. We outgained them almost 2-1. They scored on a pick 6 (of course), a VERY short field after an int and a short field after a long run.

They may win Saturday but they would have beaten us at home in 2016, 2018 and 2020 with Sirmon, Shit-show Joe and the lack of experience running the air raid.

parabrave

10-11-2022, 05:31 PM

Also, remember last year Will had one of his best games ever against Kentucky. I think this completion percentage was insanely high.

In Last years game WR started utiliizing the Run game more and it showed in the Victory with 3 rushing TDs.

Todd4State

10-11-2022, 08:13 PM

Its not him that thinks that, it's the model he runs. I am guessing the model does not account for injured starting QB's either. So this is a prediction based on a full strength Levis.

That's interesting since we've only given up more than 26 once this year and scored less than 25 once as well. Both at LSU.