Ian

[biscuit]

How bad is this gonna get? I look to SVD and others to keep me updated.

[parabrave]

Bad.

[starkvegasdawg]

It's up to 120mph now. Going to make a run at cat 4 which is 130. It needs to shift just east to put Tampa on the westside of the center. A track where Tampa is just east would be a storm surge disaster.

[parabrave]

They have the same problem as in 2004. Even if it misses Tampa it's still gonna go through Mobile home Park Heaven.

[BrunswickDawg]

It's up to 120mph now. Going to make a run at cat 4 which is 130. It needs to shift just east to put Tampa on the westside of the center. A track where Tampa is just east would be a storm surge disaster.

11AM report shows it having moved well east of yesterday - but still shows it making a bee-line up the inland side of the coast toward my neck of the woods in SE GA. My experience and the front coming thru makes me thing it will keep moving east then shoot up the coast but over over water. What do you think?

[Liverpooldawg]

It's up to 120mph now. Going to make a run at cat 4 which is 130. It needs to shift just east to put Tampa on the westside of the center. A track where Tampa is just east would be a storm surge disaster.

The current one puts Ft. Myers, Cape Coral, Sanibel and the other islands, Pt. Charlotte, Punta Gorda, etc in THEIR storm surge disaster zone.

[starkvegasdawg]

Are some concerns or moves further east. The cold front that is giving us our great weather is interacting with Ian. As of the last update wind and pressure held constant, but don't be surprised if it ends up a 4. Saw one met/chaser saying don't take 5 off the table but I have my doubts.

I'm cranky now. Had I gone and chased Ian I would have landed a Canadian national news interview. They interviewed me a few years ago when I was down for Sally and evidently kept my name on file. Dammit.

[starkvegasdawg]

It looks like it might be going through an eye wall replacement cycle. If so, that could explain it not getting stronger last couple of hours. But once it completes it then it should start intensifying again.

[dawgman15]

Should I be concerned about my Orange Beach plans this weekend?

[99jc]

Are some concerns or moves further east. The cold front that is giving us our great weather is interacting with Ian. As of the last update wind and pressure held constant, but don't be surprised if it ends up a 4. Saw one met/chaser saying don't take 5 off the table but I have my doubts.

I'm cranky now. Had I gone and chased Ian I would have landed a Canadian national news interview. They interviewed me a few years ago when I was down for Sally and evidently kept my name on file. Dammit.

I am not chasing, but you can sure as hell take my place down there. i have this bad feeling i am going to be assessing damaging on 200,000 trailers. i haven't received my orders yet but i think Friday i will be heading there.

[starkvegasdawg]

Should I be concerned about my Orange Beach plans this weekend?

Not at all. Enjoy.

[parabrave]

Should I be concerned about my Orange Beach plans this weekend?

Bring a sweater.

[Ranchdawg]

Drove from the MS Gulf Coast to Jackson today. I must have passed at least 300 electric utility trucks headed south.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest update and pressure dropped 5mb in the last hour. Eye wall replacement cycle looks almost complete. I expect to see the winds increasing in the next 1-2 hours.

[DownwardDawg]

Drove from the MS Gulf Coast to Jackson today. I must have passed at least 300 electric utility trucks headed south.

I saw a bunch headed south on I-65 through Tennessee Sunday.

[Commercecomet24]

This thing looks ugly. I'm afraid it's gonna wreak havoc in Florida

[911mom]

Those of us who live in the Tampa Bay Area appreciate prayers. Also I personally appreciate all the great weather information provided by members of this group. You are appreciated even in Tampa.

[DownwardDawg]

This thing looks ugly. I'm afraid it's gonna wreak havoc in Florida

Yeah. Just sitting here in hotel room in NOLA watching weather channel. It doesn't look good.

[starkvegasdawg]

It's still having trouble closing the eye wall back off. It's very close but the eye is much larger than before. When the eye starts getting very compact with a lot of convection in the eye wall that's a good sign it's intensifying. Good news is the longer it takes to do this the less time it has to strengthen.

[Goldendawg]

I am not chasing, but you can sure as hell take my place down there. i have this bad feeling i am going to be assessing damaging on 200,000 trailers. i haven't received my orders yet but i think Friday i will be heading there.

Be safe. Prayers sent for all. Hail State!

[parabrave]

Hey Vdog at what altitude are they measuing the winds? SFC or 800MB?

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey Vdog at what altitude are they measuing the winds? SFC or 800MB?

They'll measure from the top all the way down to sea surface, but what's reported as the strength of the hurricane is at the surface.

[starkvegasdawg]

Over the last hour winds just increased 20 mph. Now 140 sustained. It has reached category 4 status.

[starkvegasdawg]

Ian undergoing rapid intensification. Now 155mph. Almost a cat 5.

[msstate7]

What's weather look like for Smyrna, GA, this Friday-Sunday?

[starkvegasdawg]

What's weather look like for Smyrna, GA, this Friday-Sunday?

20-50% chance of rain with highs around 70.

[msstate7]

20-50% chance of rain with highs around 70.

Excellent. Braves vs Mets should be epic this weekend.

[FISHDAWG]

Excellent. Braves vs Mets should be epic this weekend.

they're already talking about the possibility of a double header on Sunday ... we finally caught those guys

[msstate7]

they're already talking about the possibility of a double header on Sunday ... we finally caught those guys

Gotta finish now

[99jc]

well boys this is going to be as bad or worse than MICHAEL we just got orders leaving this afternoon. was told will hit at cat 5 storm surge at max 16 feet. This is terrible to say the least. stay safe and hail state!

[starkvegasdawg]

Recon found flight level winds of 180mph. Fortunately, not that strong at the surface. For now.

[biscuit]

This storm is scary for sure.

[parabrave]

Hey Vdog are you watching Timmers channel. The fool trying to outdo himself

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey Vdog are you watching Timmers channel. The fool trying to outdo himself

I haven't seen much at all of any coverage. My signal at work is pure garbage.

[Commercecomet24]

I just looked at the gfs run and this is crazy but it appears to show Ian reforming off the northeast coast about October 6th. Just crazy and I could be looking at it wrong but maybe some of you real weather guys can comment on it.

[basedog]

I just looked at the gfs run and this is crazy but it appears to show Ian reforming off the northeast coast about October 6th. Just crazy and I could be looking at it wrong but maybe some of you real weather guys can comment on it.

Anything could happen but it’s way to early to really know. Btw, Strong cat 4 but man the water surge is gonna be the biggest problem right now.

[Commercecomet24]

Anything could happen but it’s way to early to really know. Btw, Strong cat 4 but man the water surge is gonna be the biggest problem right now.

Oh yeah way to early but just wild that, that's a possible scenario. Just crazy stuff

[basedog]

Oh yeah way to early but just wild that, that's a possible scenario. Just crazy stuff

The best thing about Ian right now is there aren’t that many “twisters”. It could change. But no hurricane is good.

[Commercecomet24]

The best thing about Ian right now is there aren’t that many “twisters”. It could change. But no hurricane is good.

Amen to that! I know you've seen a ton of destruction. Living through Camille and Katrina was enough for me. I'm not a big fan of hurricanes!

[Bamboo]

Can anyone tell me if North Georgia will get a decent amount of rain? Lake Lanier is down about 4 feet from full pool and we desperately need some rain as it has been an extremely dry summer. All of the recent models show the storm staying east of Georgia. The people here know more than anything I can google so please lend me your thoughts.
Hailstate

[FISHDAWG]

Can anyone tell me if North Georgia will get a decent amount of rain? Lake Lanier is down about 4 feet from full pool and we desperately need some rain as it has been an extremely dry summer. All of the recent models show the storm staying east of Georgia. The people here know more than anything I can google so please lend me your thoughts.
Hailstate

Glen Burns say it's coming and to expect several inches ... I remember when Lanier was so far down they said it would take years to bring it back up ... then 1 good hurricane (can't remember which one) brought it back up

[Bamboo]

Glen Burns say it's coming and to expect several inches ... I remember when Lanier was so far down they said it would take years to bring it back up ... then 1 good hurricane (can't remember which one) brought it back up

Thanks for the reply. We will see soon enough.

[BrunswickDawg]

Glen Burns say it's coming and to expect several inches ... I remember when Lanier was so far down they said it would take years to bring it back up ... then 1 good hurricane (can't remember which one) brought it back up

I'd love to send North Georgia some of the rain we've had for the last 3 months. It damn near rained every day from mid June till mid September.

Glenn is a family friend and a great guy. And a pretty accurate forecaster. From what I am seeing down on the coast - they missed everything for GA. What started out as "headed right for us - hurricane winds, 8-10 inches of rain, 4-5 foot storm surge on a King Tide", has turned into a storm 80 miles offshore, 35 mph winds, 1-2 inches of rain, and a king tide with 1-2 foot storm surge. It may get worse tonight and tomorrow - but I'm glad as hell that they were wrong! I'm betting North Georgia gets very little rain.

[FISHDAWG]

It blew pretty good today... 30-35 mph ... hoping we don't get the rain they predicted earlier... Pretty cool about knowing Glen Burns ... he's the best I've ever seen and usually dead on the money ... hunker down Dawg and stay safe ... if things go bad y'all are welcome here in Acworth

[RocketDawg]

It blew pretty good today... 30-35 mph ... hoping we don't get the rain they predicted earlier... Pretty cool about knowing Glen Burns ... he's the best I've ever seen and usually dead on the money ... hunker down Dawg and stay safe ... if things go bad y'all are welcome here in Acworth

We had pretty strong winds here in north Alabama as well, but I don't think it had anything to do with the hurricane - just the cold fronts. Been pretty chilly the past few days as well. Highest 2-minute wind was 20, highest gust 28. So not quite as strong as the NW Atlanta burbs. My son lives just down the road from you in Kennesaw.

[FISHDAWG]

Thanks for the reply. We will see soon enough.

updated info ... very little rain (if any) .... cool and breezy

[BrunswickDawg]

updated info ... very little rain (if any) .... cool and breezy

We ended up with hardly any rain also. Just wind. Looks like we are done other than some occasional gusts on the mainland. St. Simons and Jekyll are taking the brunt of the wind and tide right now. All things considered, we did pretty well. Florida took a helluva beating though and Myrtle Beach is going to have some damage.

[parabrave]

We ended up with hardly any rain also. Just wind. Looks like we are done other than some occasional gusts on the mainland. St. Simons and Jekyll are taking the brunt of the wind and tide right now. All things considered, we did pretty well. Florida took a helluva beating though and Myrtle Beach is going to have some damage.

Was wondering but it just went in around Georgetown.