Hey SVD and weatherdawgs

[Commercecomet24]

Hey guys what do y'all make of this low that gfs shows turning into a pretty significant hurricane and trucking into the gulf the first part of October. I know it's early but just for discussion purposes and to start a thread other than we suck at football lol!

[starkvegasdawg]

I'll be honest it has me concerned for the simple fact that all of the major models are picking up on it. I would say there is a decent chance it develops from its current state of a tropical wave. Now, assuming it develops, it is way too soon to be talking strength and track. Just 2-3 days ago Fiona was supposed to stay a tropical storm and now it is forecast to make a run at cat 4.

[parabrave]

Way too far out.

[Commercecomet24]

I'm obviously a novice at this weather stuff but it does fascinate me. I know it's early but one run I saw had it as low as 920 millibars and going in around Panama City and really staying pretty intact as far inland as Atlanta. I'm sure it's gonna change 50 gazillion times in the next couple of weeks but it looks like it could be significant. Hope it peters out!

[Commercecomet24]

Way too far out.

Oh yeah but this stuff fascinates me and I was tired of all the we suck at football threads lol

[CaptainObvious]

Oh yeah but this stuff fascinates me and I was tired of all the we suck at football threads lol

Well?. It IS that time of year. And State sucks at football.

[Commercecomet24]

Well?. It IS that time of year. And State sucks at football.

Ah we did for that game. We can't say we suck at football unless this season completely falls apart. And there have been enough threads covering the subject.

[DownwardDawg]

Ah we did for that game. We can't say we suck at football unless this season completely falls apart. And there have been enough threads covering the subject.

We sick at football. There. I said it. Lol
You know I'm messing with you.
I'm fascinated with weather systems too. Just haven't had time to pay attention to the tropics this year except when I'm offshore. Gotta keep an eye on winter systems more these days since the move.

[Commercecomet24]

We sick at football. There. I said it. Lol
You know I'm messing with you.
I'm fascinated with weather systems too. Just haven't had time to pay attention to the tropics this year except when I'm offshore. Gotta keep an eye on winter systems more these days since the move.

I hear ya brother!

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm obviously a novice at this weather stuff but it does fascinate me. I know it's early but one run I saw had it as low as 920 millibars and going in around Panama City and really staying pretty intact as far inland as Atlanta. I'm sure it's gonna change 50 gazillion times in the next couple of weeks but it looks like it could be significant. Hope it peters out!

I didn't see a run with 920mb but that would be a bitch of a storm. But just keep this mind. With the models picking up on this storm you're going to see clickbait social media sites losing their shit with all these over the top posts of a doomsday storm going to hit the gulf coast. Do yourself a favor and block those sites. They're nothing but fear porn trying to generate clicks. Right now the NHC is giving the wave in question a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression in five days. It's 9-11 days out from affecting any areas of the Gulf Coast. Anybody trying to say how strong it's going to be or where it's going to make landfall are full of shit more concerned with likes than public safety. They're assholes getting off on scaring people.

[basedog]

No more weather worries for me. I retired a few months ago. Did storm restoration as Logistics Manager for 22 years, saw way too much devastation. I hope and pray for all on coast lines as well as extreme bad cold wet weather.

[starkvegasdawg]

One more thing while I'm on my soapbox. I just went and looked at the 18z GFS. It has a 940mb hurricane hitting Florida. The 18z and 06z runs of the GFS are the less reliable of the two as they are not backed with any weather balloon data. The 12z and 00z are the more reliable of the runs of the GFS. If one of the two off runs has something over the top in it wait for the next balloon backed run to see what it says.

[Commercecomet24]

One more thing while I'm on my soapbox. I just went and looked at the 18z GFS. It has a 940mb hurricane hitting Florida. The 18z and 06z runs of the GFS are the less reliable of the two as they are not backed with any weather balloon data. The 12z and 00z are the more reliable of the runs of the GFS. If one of the two off runs has something over the top in it wait for the next balloon backed run to see what it says.

Appreciate the info. I only look at tropical tidbits and nhc for info and I like looking at the future runs on tropical tidbits. I normally look at gfs runs and like I said I'm just a novice who just finds all this very interesting. I depend on the info I get from y'all a lot and appreciate it!

[Commercecomet24]

I didn't see a run with 920mb but that would be a bitch of a storm. But just keep this mind. With the models picking up on this storm you're going to see clickbait social media sites losing their shit with all these over the top posts of a doomsday storm going to hit the gulf coast. Do yourself a favor and block those sites. They're nothing but fear porn trying to generate clicks. Right now the NHC is giving the wave in question a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression in five days. It's 9-11 days out from affecting any areas of the Gulf Coast. Anybody trying to say how strong it's going to be or where it's going to make landfall are full of shit more concerned with likes than public safety. They're assholes getting off on scaring people.

The 920mb run I saw earlier today on the gfs run and had it making landfall about the la/tex line.

[starkvegasdawg]

Appreciate the info. I only look at tropical tidbits and nhc for info and I like looking at the future runs on tropical tidbits. I normally look at gfs runs and like I said I'm just a novice who just finds all this very interesting. I depend on the info I get from y'all a lot and appreciate it!

I appreciate it. If you haven't, give our storm team's Facebook page a follow if you do the Facebook. And just to throw it out there we do have a Patreon page that has a monthly subscription fee where we give detailed content exclusive to it. The guy that posts content to it is very good and knowledgeable on severe weather and I'm starting to post some updates and articles on there more, too. I posted one last week on our hurricane season and have one set for release this Thursday, I believe, on our upcoming fall severe weather season. They're more number crunch high data articles and not fluff articles so may not appeal to everybody. But just in the off chance somebody is interested the link is Patreon.com/nmscas. We use all proceeds to help offset the cost of chasing and publishing content.

[Commercecomet24]

I appreciate it. If you haven't, give our storm team's Facebook page a follow if you do the Facebook. And just to throw it out there we do have a Patreon page that has a monthly subscription fee where we give detailed content exclusive to it. The guy that posts content to it is very good and knowledgeable on severe weather and I'm starting to post some updates and articles on there more, too. I posted one last week on our hurricane season and have one set for release this Thursday, I believe, on our upcoming fall severe weather season. They're more number crunch high data articles and not fluff articles so may not appeal to everybody. But just in the off chance somebody is interested the link is Patreon.com/nmscas. We use all proceeds to help offset the cost of chasing and publishing content.

Appreciate it man! I'll be glad to help y'all!

[starkvegasdawg]

Appreciate it man! I'll be glad to help y'all!

Very much appreciated.

[starkvegasdawg]

While no threat to the US mainland, Fiona is now right on the verge of being the first major hurricane of the season in the Atlantic basin.

[Commercecomet24]

While no threat to the US mainland, Fiona is now right on the verge of being the first major hurricane of the season in the Atlantic basin.

Crazy how quiet it's been. Sure hope it stays that way!

[starkvegasdawg]

Crazy how quiet it's been. Sure hope it stays that way!

It has been. This past August with no named storms was just the third time in the satellite era (1967-present) that has happened. The peak of the season is September 10, so we are now past that but September appears to not be as willing to go as quietly into the night.

[parabrave]

Hey guys what do y'all make of this low that gfs shows turning into a pretty significant hurricane and trucking into the gulf the first part of October. I know it's early but just for discussion purposes and to start a thread other than we suck at football lol!

Well it's invest 98 now/ Some models have it going up somewhere along the western shore of Fla others across Yucatan.

[Commercecomet24]

Well it's invest 98 now/ Some models have it going up somewhere along the western shore of Fla others across Yucatan.

Yeah I been watching it and the vary diverse paths that are predicted and I figure those will change a gazillion times in the next week, lol. Seems like they all pretty much agree though that it may be a significant hurricane. I pray that it fizzles(don't think so) and that no one is harmed by it.

[starkvegasdawg]

Here's the latest on Invest 98L that's soon to be Hermine. The spaghetti models show a turn towards the north towards the central to eastern Gulf of Mexico. This has a potential to be a significant storm with some models taking it up to a category 3. Final intensity and track are still to be determined but anywhere along the northern or eastern Gulf.

Point of note...Social media is about to erupt with fear porn posts of a category 5. While a category 4 or 5 is always possible, there is currently no credible data to indicate that it will. Ignore those sites. Don't give them the clicks which is all they crave. They give less than two shits if they scare people to death.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_tracks_latest.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_gefs_latest.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_geps_latest.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_intensity_latest.png

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks man! Keep us posted!

[PMDawg]

It's going to be a tropical cyclone and it's coming into the GOM unless something crazy happens. Intensity likely depends on the path it takes into the GOM. If it crosses lots of land and/or the mountains of western Cuba on the way in, it will keep it weaker. Favorable conditions ahead, once it gets up past the imaginary line between Jamaica and eastern Honduras. Not sure how much shear it will have to fight, but from that imaginary line to the Yucatan channel it will be over extremely warm water. When it starts getting close to that imaginary line, it's time to pay more attention imo. Then, we'll be watching timing relative to cold fronts once it gets into the Gulf. Definitely a potential for a major storm in the Gulf, but lots to happen first. My experience is that the intensity models generally err to the low side with a lot of GOM storms. Definitely one to watch. Be concerned, but not scared. Those of us who live on the coast will need to start preparing over the weekend or early next week (gas, water, batteries, checking our emergency kits, testing our generators, etc.). Otherwise, watch and wait, as usual.

[parabrave]

Latest run has it pulling an IVAN. Coming up like a straight shot for the Coast then reaching the mouth of the River and catching the front and slamming into the Pensacola area. This is the lates GFS run, 10 day out, but the GFS has been consistent with a Gulf Shores to the PC area landfall.

[PMDawg]

Latest run has it pulling an IVAN. Coming up like a straight shot for the Coast then reaching the mouth of the River and catching the front and slamming into the Pensacola area. This is the lates GFS run, 10 day out, but the GFS has been consistent with a Gulf Shores to the PC area landfall.

Yeah, all you can watch for now is consistency. Even then, it's too early to mean much. At this stage, everyone on the GOM should start paying a little attention as we head into early next week.

[99jc]

Got put on alert to have bags packed. If/when deployed i have 6 hours to leave. All i can tell you now is they are getting ready to set up a command center in Mobile. Thats where it was when Ida hit last year. i may get sent to Puerto Rico or Bermuda before then. joy of joys. we spent 3 months on a cruise ship last time Puerto Rico was slammed. Electrical grid there is 3rd world terrible.

[starkvegasdawg]

Got put on alert to have bags packed. If/when deployed i have 6 hours to leave. All i can tell you now is they are getting ready to set up a command center in Mobile. Thats where it was when Ida hit last year. i may get sent to Puerto Rico or Bermuda before then. joy of joys. we spent 3 months on a cruise ship last time Puerto Rico was slammed. Electrical grid there is 3rd world terrible.

Do you deploy in the path of the storm or just out of the path and go in after the fact?

[99jc]

Do you deploy in the path of the storm or just out of the path and go in after the fact?

After the fact. usually within a day or two after a disaster. There is no way in hell I would do a Jim Cantore and ride out a hurricane. My most dangerous assignment was being sent to the Boader wall when the illegal crises were at its peak. There was a lot of human trafficking going on and some of the border patrol was getting paid by the cartel you had no idea whom to trust.

[DownwardDawg]

I think westerly flow this weekend is gonna push it into Florida. Hopefully at a quick pace so it can't intensify very much.

[99jc]

I think westerly flow this weekend is gonna push it into Florida. Hopefully at a quick pace so it can't intensify very much.

i hope r right but i think its headed for the panhandle myself and i think we will see a min cat 4

[PMDawg]

i hope r right but i think its headed for the panhandle myself and i think we will see a min cat 4

9 days out is still too long to have any confidence. BUT - gun to my head and I had to place a wager, I'd bet major hurricane to the FL peninsula myself. But that would just be a best guess based on very little data. Living on the GOM for 40+ years, I'm not new to this game. haha

[starkvegasdawg]

i hope r right but i think its headed for the panhandle myself and i think we will see a min cat 4

Latest runs are pushing it west so have to see if that continues. Strength is all over the place. Models are almost evenly split from depression to cat 5 so still much too uncertainty to even speculate there.

[Commercecomet24]

Latest runs are pushing it west so have to see if that continues. Strength is all over the place. Models are almost evenly split from depression to cat 5 so still much too uncertainty to even speculate there.

The models are all over the place. Euro shows Florida peninsula, gfs shows la/Tex. I know it's early but that's quite a spread there.

[basedog]

The models are all over the place. Euro shows Florida peninsula, gfs shows la/Tex. I know it's early but that's quite a spread there.

After 22 years of working storms, this isn't a surprise. The company I use to work for had a "paid" site that kept us and many utility companies across America informed. Lots of woulda, coulda maybe's and Iffy's! LOL

[Commercecomet24]

After 22 years of working storms, this isn't a surprise. The company I use to work for had a "paid" site that kept us and many utility companies across America informed. Lots of woulda, coulda maybe's and Iffy's! LOL

Yep. Hard for man to accurately predict what natures gonna do.

[parabrave]

Right now nothing but speculation. The Weather Channel won't even say anything past Sat. Heck there is not even a Low level low formed yet. The GFS has gone from PC to Lake Charles while the European has stayed with the west coast of Fla. Just keep it away from between New Orleans to Mobile/

[Commercecomet24]

Right now nothing but speculation. The Weather Channel won't even say anything past Sat. Heck there is not even a Low level low formed yet. The GFS has vone from PC to Lake Charled while the European has stayed with the west coast of Fla. Just keep it away from between New Orleans to Mobile/

I wouldn't wish a hurricane on anyone but i 100% agree with your last sentence.

[RocketDawg]

Right now nothing but speculation. The Weather Channel won't even say anything past Sat. Heck there is not even a Low level low formed yet. The GFS has gone from PC to Lake Charles while the European has stayed with the west coast of Fla. Just keep it away from between New Orleans to Mobile/

Isn't that area just a vacant landmass? ;) Let's hope it stays away from the oil platforms as well.

[parabrave]

Isn't that area just a vacant landmass? ;) Let's hope it stays away from the oil platforms as well.

And now the massive Wind farms to replace the oil platforms. Now thats what you call a recepie for disaster.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest GFS with a huge shift east in track with a landfall south of Tampa now. This is more in line with what the euro has been showing last few days and may...just may...mean there's finally starting to be some agreement among the models. I say that and when the euro comes in a couple hours later it'll probably show it hitting Houston. It should become a depression in the next 24-48 hours and then wait to see how strong it gets. Good news is if this track holds then that's less time over open water so less time to intensify.

[PMDawg]

Latest GFS with a huge shift east in track with a landfall south of Tampa now. This is more in line with what the euro has been showing last few days and may...just may...mean there's finally starting to be some agreement among the models. I say that and when the euro comes in a couple hours later it'll probably show it hitting Houston. It should become a depression in the next 24-48 hours and then wait to see how strong it gets. Good news is if this track holds then that's less time over open water so less time to intensify.

I don't want anyone to get hurt, so I don't like to say where I "hope" it goes....but man, those mountains in western Cuba could help out big time if it tracks straight over them.

[parabrave]

Hey 99 where are they sending you now>

[starkvegasdawg]

It is now officially a depression. Everything else looks to still be holding firm. Next model runs will be coming out between noon and 2:00pm.

[99jc]

Hey 99 where are they sending you now>

I got another email this afternoon placing on alert ready standby. It said my unit will be 1st ones in on this rotation. They are setting up a command center either in Mobile or Jacksonville Fl. Probability is high landfall near Tampa-Saint Petersburg or in the Apalachicola area at this time.

[starkvegasdawg]

It now officially has a name. Tropical Storm Ian has formed in the southern Caribbean. Expected to make landfall around Tampa on Wednesday as a major hurricane.

[Commercecomet24]

It now officially has a name. Tropical Storm Ian has formed in the southern Caribbean. Expected to make landfall around Tampa on Wednesday as a major hurricane.

My brother in law and his family live in Orlando. Praying all in the path of this thing make it through ok.

[parabrave]

Hey SVD did they just shift the storm back to the Appalachacola area? GFS, HWFR and HMON are forecasting that now. But something to notice is that they are predicting the storm to fall apart offshore. The dry air that is over the area will curtail anymore intensifying the further the storm goes north.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey SVD did they just shift the storm back to the Appalachacola area? GFS, HWFR and HMON are forecasting that now. But something to notice is that they are predicting the storm to fall apart offshore. The dry air that is over the area will curtail anymore intensifying the further the storm goes north.

Last I saw the official track is a landfall near Tampa as a cat 3.

[RocketDawg]

Last I saw the official track is a landfall near Tampa as a cat 3.

Anybody remember what the forecast track for Michael was several days out?

[parabrave]

Biloxi?? It;s still early. The Track is going to shift until it turns north. One thing to watch is the Water Vapor loop over the coastal areas. It's been dry here for 3 weeks and forecasted to be dry the rest of the week. Dry air will kill a storm.

[State82]

Biloxi?? It;s still early. The Track is going to shift until it turns north. One thing to watch is the Water Vapor loop over the coastal areas. It's been dry here for 3 weeks and forecasted to be dry the rest of the week. Dry air will kill a storm.

Yeah. I was watching The Weather Channel this morning and Dr. Postel, their hurricane expert, was emphasizing how they just don't know at present and that everyone along the northern Gulf needs to be cautious. Even as far west as east Texas.

[starkvegasdawg]

Yeah. I was watching The Weather Channel this morning and Dr. Postel, their hurricane expert, was emphasizing how they just don't know at present and that everyone along the northern Gulf needs to be cautious. Even as far west as east Texas.

There does look to be a western shift again in the tracks and an increase in intensity. Slightly more concerned than I was this morning.

[starkvegasdawg]

Expect to see Ian undergo rapid intensification starting tomorrow and possibly end up as a cat 4 in the eastern Gulf. However, it is looking like it might start to encounter shear and begin to weaken as it approaches land. Track is still not certain but forecasts have been trending west. There's a couple big upper air patterns waiting to see how they shake out. Another 24-36 hours should see that come into focus and the models get a much better grip on the track. Current forecast are still for a Florida strike at cat 1 or 2 intensity but the location could be the panhandle now instead of the peninsula.

[parabrave]

Thanks SVD for your monitoring of the progress of the system.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks for keeping us posted. I sure hope this thing doesn't keep pushing west.

[parabrave]

Thanks for keeping us posted. I sure hope this thing doesn't keep pushing west.

These tracks usually will shift to extremes then settle once the storms are 2-3 days out. One thing to watch Wed and Thrus besides the Shearing is the Water Vapor loop. Dry air being introduced into a system will wreck it dam quick/ And the Front which is supposed to steer it is forcasted to be dry one.

[Commercecomet24]

These tracks usually will shift to extremes then settle once the storms are 2-3 days out. One thing to watch Wed and Thrus besides the Shearing is the Water Vapor loop. Dry air being introduced into a system will wreck it dam quick/ And the Front which is supposed to steer it is forcasted to be dry one.

Let's hope and pray it gets wrecked by dry air. I don't want anyone getting hit by this thing .

[DownwardDawg]

I'm watching closely. Supposed to fly from Nashville to Nola Tuesday to head offshore Wednesday.

[99jc]

I'm watching closely. Supposed to fly from Nashville to Nola Tuesday to head offshore Wednesday.

looks like the track will be around Apalachicola.

[parabrave]

looks like the track will be around Apalachicola.

Hell It seems that it will fall apart before making landfall. However Flooding in SELA and south Ga will be the main problem.

[Commercecomet24]

Hell It seems that it will fall apart before making landfall. However Flooding in SELA and south Ga will be the main problem.

I hope it falls apart for those in the path.

[parabrave]

I hope it falls apart for those in the path.

If it hits the panhandle the probabilities are high. If it veers anywhere south then watch out

[PMDawg]

looks like the track will be around Apalachicola.

Looking like a CAT 3, maybe 4, somewhere between Tampa and Cape Coral. Just shifted south, so Tampa not currently projected to take a direct hit or be on the east side of it. I guess that's about the best news possible at this point. Prayers those in the path and folks like you slated to respond to the disaster/emergency.

[parabrave]

Same scenario that happened with Hurricane Charley around 2004. It was supposed to go into Tampa but veered into Port Charlotte at the last minute. Checkout the Cam at the Southernmost Resort Pier.

[starkvegasdawg]

Getting that buzzsaw look.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fdro0eSWIAANvIV?format=jpg&name=large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fdro0fWWQAAZANr?format=jpg&name=large