coach34 - question

[somebodyshotmypaw]

You stated that you didn't see any way that we don't go at least 9-3. After seeing us play, and seeing others in the SEC, what is your prediction now? Just curious.

[msstate7]

Pretty sure C34 was paving the way to calling for leach's head. No way 9-3 was gonna happen

[Coach34]

I didnt see us vs LSU so tough to judge as to what the problems were and who else can exploit them. We obviously wont beat Bama and Georgia. But based on struggling vs an average LSU team- you have to worry about games on the road at Kentucky and Mississippi. A&M making the QB switch makes them better but it's still at home.

We have a gimme Saturday and then October will tell the tale.

[PikeDawg15]

I didnt see us vs LSU so tough to judge as to what the problems were and who else can exploit them. We obviously wont beat Bama and Georgia. But based on struggling vs an average LSU team- you have to worry about games on the road at Kentucky and Mississippi. A&M making the QB switch makes them better but it's still at home.

We have a gimme Saturday and then October will tell the tale.

I agree. We would have to play are A+ game in every sec game not named auburn to win and I don't think we can do that.

Im expecting 7-5 as of now. I just hope that 7th win is the egg bowl because it will be a very bad taste in the mouth of MSU people if we don't have that egg in starkville the day after thanksgiving.

[Commercecomet24]

I didnt see us vs LSU so tough to judge as to what the problems were and who else can exploit them. We obviously wont beat Bama and Georgia. But based on struggling vs an average LSU team- you have to worry about games on the road at Kentucky and Mississippi. A&M making the QB switch makes them better but it's still at home.

We have a gimme Saturday and then October will tell the tale.

This pretty much sums it up. We need to win our home games and we better win the Egg Bowl. I'm still positive about things but a third Egg Bowl loss would be very bad, very bad.

[Johnson85]

I agree. We would have to play are A+ game in every sec game not named auburn to win and I don't think we can do that.

Im expecting 7-5 as of now. I just hope that 7th win is the egg bowl because it will be a very bad taste in the mouth of MSU people if we don't have that egg in starkville the day after thanksgiving.

I'm not sure that's true.

First, we knew we were going to be potentially vulnerable to anybody with a good edge pass rusher. BJ Ojulari was expected to be a top pass rusher, so I'm not sure every SEC DL we face will be able to give us the same problems. We can write off UGA and Bama (not sure we needed this weekend to know that) and I'm sure probably another one or two SEC teams, but not sure which ones.

Second, as slow as our defense looked at times, we still held them to 10 points through three quarters. The muffed punt broke their spirits and they just got worn out. And while LSU hadn't looked like much yet, Brian Kelly is a good coach and I think they are better now than they were against FSU.

Third, as off as Will was, our receivers were just as bad. Will is going to struggle when he is getting hit/hurried (like just about every pocket passing QB), but a lot of his bad throws were still pretty easily catchable balls. If Will just does a little better handling pressure and the WRs just catch the balls the should catch, even if it kills YAC on the ones that aren't on target, that keeps several drives alive and maybe lets us put points on the board.

I'm pretty down about how we played and am worried that Will is just never going to be able to avoid games like this with the protection we are going to be able to give him (and this isn't really a criticism of him individually; most QBs are going to struggle when they get hit a lot, but he is more dependent than some on accuracy and timing because of his arm strength), but bad games do happen and I'm still holding out hope that this was more about us just having a bad game than it is about us being unable to play decent if there is any pressure on the Qb.

[R2Dawg]

Here how I see the floor and ceiling now.

4-8 if the wheels fall off

7-5 possible, get a big break outside shot at 8-5. Gotta go at least 2-2 in Oct. and probably 2-2 with chance at 3-1 in Nov.

[Catfish]

Here how I see the floor and ceiling now.

4-8 if the wheels fall off

7-5 possible, get a big break outside shot at 8-5. Gotta go at least 2-2 in Oct. and probably 2-2 with chance at 3-1 in Nov.

Agree with this. I don't think we can play any uglier than we did against LSU. Don't expect a lot against Bama and Georgia but everyone else on our schedule is beatable if we can get it together. Hopefully we can get things going this week and go from there. It's looking like 7-5 but fingers crossed for 8-4.

[dawgday166]

Pretty sure C34 was paving the way to calling for leach's head. No way 9-3 was gonna happen

I think so too. No way we were ever winning 10 with Bama & GA on our schedule. Anyone saying we should win 10 had some extra strong maroon colored glasses or ... wants Leach gone. 9 was a long shot (say 10 to 20% max) maybe. 8 is like 50/50 (or 45/55 maybe) while 7 is probably about a 75% chance or better IMO.

We gotta play KY & OM at their place. We waxed KY last year at home so they'll be ready. OM will most likely be tough regardless. If we split those we still have to win all our remaining games at home with no slip ups. We also waxed TAM at their place last year so they'll be ready for us too.

ETA: This ain't the 2018 team with the speed/size/depth and all-SEC players it had on D, or the 1100 yd rusher returning plus the 3rd best total yardage leader in SEC returning too. And all but one Olineman with 2 NFL players on it ... one that was a stud center.

[EdwardDrayton]

Thinking 6-6. 5-7 is definitely on the table but taking the left fork down Optimist Lane and we pick up that sixth win somewhere. If it goes Ugly Fork and we God forbid allow Aubie to take us down in our house, it’s 4-8 and we’re all renting our clothes to shreds, wailing and looking to burn someone in the public square.

[viverlibre]

Pretty sure C34 was paving the way to calling for leach's head. No way 9-3 was gonna happen

Of course not, we were always a 7-5 team. We need to split UM/UK/Ark/The Barn and steal one from TAMU to get there. Gonna be tough, UM and UK are better than I anticipated. Obviously the talent at TAMU is vastly superior to us and I fear they already have their wake up call. 6-6 is a real possibility.

[TrapGame]

Thinking 6-6. 5-7 is definitely on the table but taking the left fork down Optimist Lane and we pick up that sixth win somewhere. If it goes Ugly Fork and we God forbid allow Aubie to take us down in our house, it’s 4-8 and we’re all renting our clothes to shreds, wailing and looking to burn someone in the public square.

If we go 6-6 with a third consecutive loss to OM I do believe Mike Leach will be asked to "retire". And if this scenario actually comes to fruition I'm good with it. We would have regressed with a more experienced team than 2021. That's just unacceptable.

[coachnorm]

I didnt see us vs LSU so tough to judge as to what the problems were and who else can exploit them. We obviously wont beat Bama and Georgia. But based on struggling vs an average LSU team- you have to worry about games on the road at Kentucky and Mississippi. A&M making the QB switch makes them better but it's still at home.

We have a gimme Saturday and then October will tell the tale.

LSU was tough because we made it tough on ourselves and particularly the head coach exasperated the self-inflicted wounds. The HC chooses to observe the air raid manual instead of the data based spread sheet. The data base emphatically displays that swing passes will be well defended. The air raid manual says otherwise, so who is at fault for choosing one over the other? Running the ball with 5 blocking 7 in the box needs someone within the coaching staff to admit incompetence? CML was the best player that LSU had last Saturday because he was too busy trying to reinvent the football wheel instead of paying attention to the task at hand? When we threw the ball #82 was targeted when he was the least talented of the 4 on the field. The data base says don’t throw to a receiver who plays scared and wants the YAC over just the reception. The air raid manual demands compliance regardless of the databased evaluation. The manual compliance caused us to not throw deep with the receivers we finally have and relegate them to scheme participants, who is going to take responsibility for this?

[somebodyshotmypaw]

I didnt see us vs LSU so tough to judge as to what the problems were and who else can exploit them. We obviously wont beat Bama and Georgia. But based on struggling vs an average LSU team- you have to worry about games on the road at Kentucky and Mississippi. A&M making the QB switch makes them better but it's still at home.

We have a gimme Saturday and then October will tell the tale.

Yep. I was hoping all of Georgia's losses to the NFL would mean a step back. That hasn't happened. As always, our year comes down to the 50/50, 60/40 type games. LSU, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Arkansas, etc. Bowling Green and Alabama won't affect the season. Unfortunately we are currently 0-1 in those 50/50, 60/40 type games. I hope we get some things straightened out. I would love 8-4 with a victory in the Egg Bowl and then Kiffin headed somewhere else.

[Coach34]

. No way 9-3 was gonna happen

When you have a veteran team at State you are supposed to win big for us.

2010? Went 9-4 and damn near pulled off a couple more wins vs Auburn and UPig
2014? 10-3 and a loss to Mississippi cost us a playoff berth
2018? Best team in school history was crippled with JoVester and still went 8-4
2022? Another team loaded with upperclassmen. Better get it now cause 2023 gonna be step back in talent and experience.

[Coach34]

Yep. I was hoping all of Georgia's losses to the NFL would mean a step back. That hasn't happened. .

Amazing how good of a job Kirby is doing. They lost a ton and are not missing a beat. Georgia/Bama 2 more times this year for the SEC and NC

[dawgday166]

When you have a veteran team at State you are supposed to win big for us.

2010? Went 9-4 and damn near pulled off a couple more wins vs Auburn and UPig
2014? 10-3 and a loss to Mississippi cost us a playoff berth
2018? Best team in school history was crippled with JoVester and still went 8-4
2022? Another team loaded with upperclassmen. Better get it now cause 2023 gonna be step back in talent and experience.

2010 - Fletcher Cox, KJ Wright,Chris White, Boobie Dixon, LT Derrick Sherrod and other NFL players on that team. (6 NFL draft picks in '10 & 11 and 3 in 2012).
2014 - Preston Smith, Chris Jones, BMac, Dak, and other NFL players on that team. All but one of Oline had played together for 4 years.
2018 - Stud NFL Center then the NFL D studs. All but one of Oline had played together 3 years. Mr All-Purpose yardage leader for MSU and an 1100 yd returning rusher.
2022 - Nowhere near the talent level on D of 2010 and O plus D for '14 & '18. Most of our D players now are Moorhead recruits or the class of 2018 which Moorhead picked up from a flying out the door Mullenz. Solid players but not great on D. Oline is not cohesive unit yet (after watching/pausing/rewinding replay).

Not an apples to apples comparison.

[Johnson85]

2010 - Fletcher Cox, KJ Wright,Chris White, Boobie Dixon, LT Derrick Sherrod and other NFL players on that team. (6 NFL draft picks in '10 & 11 and 3 in 2012).
2014 - Preston Smith, Chris Jones, BMac, Dak, and other NFL players on that team. All but one of Oline had played together for 4 years.
2018 - Stud NFL Center then the NFL D studs. All but one of Oline had played together 3 years. Mr All-Purpose yardage leader for MSU and an 1100 yd returning rusher.
2022 - Nowhere near the talent level on D of 2010 and O plus D for '14 & '18. Most of our D players now are Moorhead recruits or the class of 2018 which Moorhead picked up from a flying out the door Mullenz. Solid players but not great on D. Oline is not cohesive unit yet (after watching/pausing/rewinding replay).

Not an apples to apples comparison.

It's not but we're still going to be replacing a ton of minutes. And while we aren't losing a ton of stars, in some ways that's more concerning. We have all these seniors that are solid but not real playmakers, and we don't have any stud underclassmen pushing for more minutes? We could potentially lose 4 starting OL. What guys do you see coming in and at least being equivalent to the guys not doing a great job now? On defense, what underclassmen do you see that you're thinking maybe should take over starter's minutes by the end of the year? Hell, which underclassmen are even getting significant minutes?

Defense could be a nightmare next year. We may need to pull half a dozen starters from the transfer portal.

[Matt3467]

This years team doesn't hold a candle to the '10,'14, and '18 teams. Our o-line while older upperclassmen is patchworked together at the tackle position. Our tackles were whipped all night long vs LSU. Our defense is again while mostly all older upperclassmen is average. We're a good run stopper D and that's about it. Our D-line gets no penetration. Our linebackers are slow as molasses. Forbes is probably the only one that would push for playing time on those other teams. If Arnett had the '18 defense we'd be college football's equivalent of the '85 bears to JoeMo's chagrin. The only position I see as an upgrade is the WR position. We've never typically been deep there but I like our direction there of course we need to cut out the drops. Our special teams may be the worst in the nation and besides a year sprinkled in here or there we may have consistently had logic defying bad special teams over the past several coaches anyway.

[Coach34]

This years team doesn't hold a candle to the '10,'14, and '18 teams. Our o-line while older upperclassmen is patchworked together at the tackle position. Our tackles were whipped all night long vs LSU. Our defense is again while mostly all older upperclassmen is average. We're a good run stopper D and that's about it. Our D-line gets no penetration. Our linebackers are slow as molasses. Forbes is probably the only one that would push for playing time on those other teams. If Arnett had the '18 defense we'd be college football's equivalent of the '85 bears to JoeMo's chagrin. The only position I see as an upgrade is the WR position. We've never typically been deep there but I like our direction there of course we need to cut out the drops. Our special teams may be the worst in the nation and besides a year sprinkled in here or there we may have consistently had logic defying bad special teams over the past several coaches anyway.

And these guys are the best we got. So that should really tell you something about next year and where it's headed.

[dawgday166]

It's not but we're still going to be replacing a ton of minutes. And while we aren't losing a ton of stars, in some ways that's more concerning. We have all these seniors that are solid but not real playmakers, and we don't have any stud underclassmen pushing for more minutes? We could potentially lose 4 starting OL. What guys do you see coming in and at least being equivalent to the guys not doing a great job now? On defense, what underclassmen do you see that you're thinking maybe should take over starter's minutes by the end of the year? Hell, which underclassmen are even getting significant minutes?

Defense could be a nightmare next year. We may need to pull half a dozen starters from the transfer portal.

Won't argue with this. Hard to tell right now. Mullen was good at developing over a 4 year cycle. In 2010 he inherited players from Croom, Croom's recruiting class, and supplemented with Juco players too. He inherited KJ Wright and 2009 recruiting haul landed Cox, Banks. 3 studs right there. Then he juco'd Chris White, another stud.

2018 team - offense had been mostly intact for 3 years and Hev was good at coaching Olinemen (he gets credit for that IMO). In 2016 that offense looked like a discombobulated mess quite often and we lost 1st game of the year to USA (which had only had a football program for 9 years). Mullen also had a core of D studs he had recruited that included Jeff Simmons, Willie Gay, Kobe Jones, Marquis Spencer, Errol Thompson, and supplemented his D with a big juco haul to add Montez Sweat, and to add depth and improve back end of D. Only Jeff Simmons was a 5 star on that D.

Leach has recruited some Olineman, some 4 star Dlinemen and a 4 star LB too. Can he develop those to be studs? Can he supplement via NIL or Juco for the missing pieces? Can Sawyer Robertson take over, pass as accurate as Will does most games and provide more mobility? All questions that are yet to be answered. And on paper it does look somewhat concerning for sure. Ultimately, Leach is the guy, he's turned programs around before, and he's done more with less moreso than even Mullen has. There may be a Preston Smith or BMac hiding somewhere in his recruiting classes right now that we just ain't seeing. Don't know yet, but he needs more time IMO to show us. Takes time to develop those types of players.

Also IMO, seems like all schools these days, regardless of past history, think a coach should come in and win at a minimum in 3 years. Unless it's a school like Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, FL, LSU, GA I just don't understand that myself unless someone inherits a team like the one JoMo inherited in 2018, and that is not the case in most coaching changes. It certainly wasn't in Leach's case. A 3 year turnaround is unrealistic in most all other cases.

I will admit we had chances to win 9 last year. I still think we have a chance at 8 this year. We can play a lot better than we did the other night. We have a lot of pretty good players but we don't have any stud horses and the schedule isn't doing us any favors either.

And then there's the fact that in our new politically correct world Leach may just say f*** it and take it to the house. To constantly be overly worried about something you might tweet that is not bad but misunderstood and hammered on or to be constantly worried about what you say at a presser might "hurt" some feelings ... well that ain't really Mike Leach.

[Catfish]

Good post. That's certainly true about hurting people's feelings now days. Coaches especially have to be careful what they say and do. Everybody's got a cell phone.

[coachnorm]

Are you going to the Texas A&M game. If so, I will have some digital content for you.

[Coach34]

I am not but I appreciate it. Working Friday nights (and some Saturdays) plus Sundays wont allow it now that I'm 5 hours away again.

[PMDawg]

Pretty sure C34 was paving the way to calling for leach's head. No way 9-3 was gonna happen

^this^