TEAMRANKINGS Projections - Stolen from secrant.com

[PMDawg]

Here's their projections for us. Most likely record is 7-5, 2nd most likely is 6-6, 3rd most likely is 8-4. 5-7 is slightly more likely than 9-3. 4-8 is considered a "meltdown season" (10th percentile), and is barely more likely than our "miracle season" of 10-2 (90th percentile). It looks like they are basing this on having 6 of our games essentially rated as toss-ups, so that leaves a wide margin for a record of anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3. Alabama and Georgia are 8.7% and 19.8% chances for us to win, while Memphis is 78.6%, Arizona is 84.5%, BG is 93.5%, and ETS is 99.1%. The rest of the games fall in the range between 41.8% (A&M) and 59.4% (Arkansas).

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/mississippi-state-bulldogs/projections

[dawgman15]

I bought the Pick Six Preview but I am not sure how to upload a pdf on here. If it's not possible I can try saving as a jpg or gif

[PMDawg]

If you look at all the percentages, they essentially give us a 39.1% chance of going 8-4 or better, and a 43.1% chance of going 6-6 or worse (woof). The remaining 17.8% is 7-5, which is their predicted record for us.

[PGHBulldogBG]

7-5 is probably the most realistic with our schedule. I’m going 8-4 though because I believe by the end of the year this team will be good enough and mature enough to go into Oxford and take the Egg Bowl. It will be a battle but I think they pull it out. It will be a little disappointing if we only have 6 wins going into Oxford, but if Bama, aTm, UGA, Ark and UK all end up in the top 15 it won’t look as bad

[parabrave]

Lets review again/ We return most of our offense, with a veteran QB, except Cross and Polk. We are supposedly stocked at receiver and are supposed to incorporate more run plays. Our D is supposed to be better and we have, hopefully, a dependable kicking game. We beat TAM and KY last year. Should've beat Arky, who BTW lost their best receiver, 3 missed FGs, Lost to LSU missed FG, Mem, blown ref call. Thats 3 games right there. LSU this year is an big unknown and OMs team is gone. Now I'm the biggest Leach detractor but we should go at least 9-3. If we go 7-5 this year will be a big disappointment.

[WhiskeyPirate]

Why are you a Leach detractor if you think we will go 9-3 ? With the #2 SOS in the country, I’d say he would be national COY or darn close.

Really you are saying he has built sTate into a top ten ten team if we should go 9-3 with this schedule. I would think you’d be a big supporter if that’s the case.

[1bigdawg]

I am on board with 9-3, but I am not a Leach detractor. 9 is my over/under.

[PMDawg]

7-5 is the number. Per Vegas, per FPI, per statistical analysis, etc. There's a path to 9-3 that you've outlined. It's not far fetched. 10-2 is doable, but everything has to go perfect. However, there is a path to 6-6, or even 5-7 that is not that far fetched wither, and just requires a little bad luck. I think we will have a pretty fun season with a lot of competitive games that end in close scores. Just have to make the ball bounce our way.

[99jc]

7-5 is the number. Per Vegas, per FPI, per statistical analysis, etc. There's a path to 9-3 that you've outlined. It's not far fetched. 10-2 is doable, but everything has to go perfect. However, there is a path to 6-6, or even 5-7 that is not that far fetched wither, and just requires a little bad luck. I think we will have a pretty fun season with a lot of competitive games that end in close scores. Just have to make the ball bounce our way.

if we go 5-7 or 6-6 without losing a ton of players to injury, I will personally drive Leach back to Key West!

[parabrave]

Of course everything depends on the O line and if Leach will adjust his blocking schemes if we keep getting beat.

[R2Dawg]

if we go 5-7 or 6-6 without losing a ton of players to injury, I will personally drive Leach back to Key West!

Agree with that and will add. If we don't win 9 or 10 then Leach is not much of an upgrade from anyone we've had. This year is as good as Leach will have talent wise and all we hear is Leach gives us the edge to push the blue bloods well it is time to push some blue blood while not losing to Memphis or AZ.

Another words, if Leach is what advertised then it is put up or shut up time this year. Any coach with a pulse can win 6 or 7 with this team.

[TrapGame]

if we go 5-7 or 6-6 without losing a ton of players to injury, I will personally drive Leach back to Key West!

And I'll pitch in gas money. 6-6 with this team is a failure. Way too much experience coming back for that kinda suck. 7-5 w/ the Egg? I'd be a little pissed but beating ole miss would make it tolerable.


Of course everything depends on the O line and if Leach will adjust his blocking schemes if we keep getting beat.

I think we might be surprised how well the OL looks. These guys aren't green. Most have played multiple positions on the OL and now what's expected of them.


Agree with that and will add. If we don't win 9 or 10 then Leach is not much of an upgrade from anyone we've had. This year is as good as Leach will have talent wise and all we hear is Leach gives us the edge to push the blue bloods well it is time to push some blue blood while not losing to Memphis or AZ.

Another words, if Leach is what advertised then it is put up or shut up time this year. Any coach with a pulse can win 6 or 7 with this team.

I think I just might be in agreement w/ you R2.

[viverlibre]

We lose to Bama and UGA. We likely lose to (but also have a realistic chance of winning) LSU and TAMU. Those four teams greatly out talent us. We win all 4 non-conf games. Our season comes down to UK/UM/Ark and the Barn. We win 3 of those 4 and we are 7-5, knock off LSU with a new coach in an early season matchup and we are 8-4. Ole Miss has Vandy and KU as their east opponents, this year....replacing our UGA game with Vandy would be great.

I like Leach as a coach and will always think we was a good hire at time, no matter if he fails here in the next year or two. Unfortunately to me, he has not proven to be a master tactician who maximizes his talent or schemes to protect his team's deficiencies. I think this year he's going to make adjustments and prove to everyone he's a very good coach, but with our schedule, 8-4 will be a very good coaching job.

[Coach34]

LSU greatly out talents us? What? Thats not even close to being true.

[Catfish]

We lose to Bama and UGA. We likely lose to (but also have a realistic chance of winning) LSU and TAMU. Those four teams greatly out talent us. We win all 4 non-conf games. Our season comes down to UK/UM/Ark and the Barn. We win 3 of those 4 and we are 7-5, knock off LSU with a new coach in an early season matchup and we are 8-4. Ole Miss has Vandy and KU as their east opponents, this year....replacing our UGA game with Vandy would be great.

I like Leach as a coach and will always think we was a good hire at time, no matter if he fails here in the next year or two. Unfortunately to me, he has not proven to be a master tactician who maximizes his talent or schemes to protect his team's deficiencies. I think this year he's going to make adjustments and prove to everyone he's a very good coach, but with our schedule, 8-4 will be a very good coaching job.

I think you're right on. 8-4.

[viverlibre]

LSU greatly out talents us? What? Thats not even close to being true.

Wait, what? According to 24/7, over the last fours their recruiting classes have been ranked much, much higher than ours, including several top 5 classes, additionally they have traditionally had the most players drafted behind Bama.

I'm interested to see your data and have no problem being proven wrong.

[viverlibre]

I think you're right on. 8-4.

I would love to be 8-4 and that would be a great coaching job by Leach.

[Coach34]

Wait, what? According to 24/7, over the last fours their recruiting classes have been ranked much, much higher than ours, including several top 5 classes, additionally they have traditionally had the most players drafted behind Bama.

I'm interested to see your data and have no problem being proven wrong.

They have also had alot of those guys leave the program. They have lost a ton of guys to the portal and have brought in guys from FIU, ULL, and other places. One of their starting CB's is from McNeese State

[TrapGame]

They have also had alot of those guys leave the program. They have lost a ton of guys to the portal and have brought in guys from FIU, ULL, and other places. One of their starting CB's is from McNeese State

Holy shit.

I guess that why the guy on Jake Wim's show last week was predicting they have some issues on defense.

[Hot Rock]

Wait, what? According to 24/7, over the last fours their recruiting classes have been ranked much, much higher than ours, including several top 5 classes, additionally they have traditionally had the most players drafted behind Bama.

I'm interested to see your data and have no problem being proven wrong.

247 publishes a team talent ranking based on the team as it is currently constructed but it usually doesn't come out until after the season starts. Even that metric does not consider age or experience. You simply cannot replace a Senior with a freshman and expect not to have some sort of drop-off no matter the rating especially at certain positions like OL & QB. Even Charles Cross had growing pains his first year.

[viverlibre]

247 publishes a team talent ranking based on the team as it is currently constructed but it usually doesn't come out until after the season starts. Even that metric does not consider age or experience. You simply cannot replace a Senior with a freshman and expect not to have some sort of drop-off no matter the rating especially at certain positions like OL & QB. Even Charles Cross had growing pains his first year.

They are not just replacing seniors with freshman, they are top 5 recruiters nearly every year.

[FISHDAWG]

They are not just replacing seniors with freshman, they are top 5 recruiters nearly every year.

I'm not sure they have even announced (or maybe even decided) who their starting QB will be

[TrapGame]

They are not just replacing seniors with freshman, they are top 5 recruiters nearly every year.

Actually, their OL is supposed to have a freshman center and I believe a freshman guard.

[viverlibre]

They have also had alot of those guys leave the program. They have lost a ton of guys to the portal and have brought in guys from FIU, ULL, and other places. One of their starting CB's is from McNeese State

But the reverse of that is that our leading returning WR likely wouldn't make the 3 deep on their team.

I hate to the the one that uses data but their 2022 transfer class is ranked number 3 in the nation, they have several SEC players coming in and several from other P5 teams.

Let's bookmark this and check back, over the next several years I'm confident they will have more players drafted than us.

Through my maroon colored glasses, I think we upset them in BR, but objectively that game has to be counted as a loss when making preseason predictions.

I don't think Kelly is a great coach, but he is solid and he'll have LSU winning 8-9 games consistently. I'd think he'll have them beating Bama or challenging for the playoffs, but they'll battle TAMU for second in the west.

[Coach34]

But the reverse of that is that our leading returning WR likely wouldn't make the 3 deep on their team.

So a WR transfer from ULL can make it- but our best cant? Cmon dude.

Their LG is from Fla International.
Their LT is a true freshman

[parabrave]

So a WR transfer from ULL can make it- but our best cant? Cmon dude.

Their LG is from Fla International.
Their LT is a true freshman

And hopefully we can take advantage of those weaknesses

[TrapGame]

And hopefully we can take advantage of those weaknesses

Florida State sure will. And I doubt they'll be much better by game 3.

[TrapGame]

But the reverse of that is that our leading returning WR likely wouldn't make the 3 deep on their team.


I don't think Kelly is a great coach, but he is solid and he'll have LSU winning 8-9 games consistently. I'd think he'll have them beating Bama or challenging for the playoffs, but they'll battle TAMU for second in the west.

A) That's bullshit.

B) Kelly may be another Moorhead or Harsin. I'm not sold on him at all.

[PMDawg]

But the reverse of that is that our leading returning WR likely wouldn't make the 3 deep on their team.



They're talented at WR, no doubt. But your selling us short. I think our WR group is probably the strongest it's ever been, and it's going to show out this year. It's definitely the deepest group we've ever had.

[viverlibre]

They're talented at WR, no doubt. But your selling us short. I think our WR group is probably the strongest it's ever been, and it's going to show out this year. It's definitely the deepest group we've ever had.

I hope so, but Austin is our leading returning WR and he wouldn't make the 3 deep for the corndogs.

[WhiskeyPirate]

A) That's bullshit.

B) Kelly may be another Moorhead or Harsin. I'm not sold on him at all.

I don’t think BK will be another Moorhead, if you look at his Bearcat teams they had a lot of team speed, running q bs and were pretty mercenary/not strong academically.....he was not a great fit at ND due to their academic requirements and being a historically “ clean program”.

He is a much better fit at LSU where dirt and cheating is celebrated. He might take a couple of years to build but that is probably the easiest program in the country to recruit and win at. Coach O and Les Miles won there.....so BK certainly can IMO.

LSU is a mystery team/wild card at this point.

[PGHBulldogBG]

I think BK was a good hire at LSU, but there is a chance he could be off culturally a bit. I don’t understand the full back story of why he left ND though. Seems strange he would leave ND for another college job. Nevertheless, I think the game in Baton Rouge will be a battle. LSU will be improved from last year but so will State.

[PMDawg]

I hope so, but Austin is our leading returning WR and he wouldn't make the 3 deep for the corndogs.

Austin is an old fashioned possession receiver. He has a role in this offense, and he suits it well. Between Walley, Harvey, Tulu, Thomas, Ducking, Calvin, and maybe even Harmon, that's where our explosive plays will come from. That doesn't even factor in our RBs.

[dawgman15]

I hope so, but Austin is our leading returning WR and he wouldn't make the 3 deep for the corndogs.

Actually Jaden Walley is our leading returning wide reciever

[PMDawg]

LSU greatly out talents us? What? Thats not even close to being true.

Oops!

https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/?Conference=SEC

[TrapGame]

Oops!

https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/?Conference=SEC

That's not what he means.

If you are LSU and your starting corner is a transfer from McNeese State that's not good.

If you are LSU and you have to start TWO freshmen on the OL that's no bueno.

That sounds like shit we would do, not LSU.

[FISHDAWG]

Austin is an old fashioned possession receiver. He has a role in this offense, and he suits it well. Between Walley, Harvey, Tulu, Thomas, Ducking, Calvin, and maybe even Harmon, that's where our explosive plays will come from. That doesn't even factor in our RBs.

tried to rep you but couldn't .... Austin Williams definitely has a role and he's our sure-hands go to guy on 3rd down when we absolutely have to have it ... and for fielding punts.

[viverlibre]

Oops!

https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/?Conference=SEC

Hard data and common sense is not appreciated by some of these idiot posters.

[WhiskeyPirate]

LSU is #4 in talent and we are #12 out of 14. LSU is at home and are favored by most. It’s kind of odd that the “10-2 or fire the coach crowd” are primarily Leach detractors. Logically you would think they would appreciate the program Leach has built if they truly believe 8-4 is a major disappointment.

[Catfish]

LSU is #4 in talent and we are #12 out of 14. LSU is at home and are favored by most. It’s kind of odd that the “10-2 or fire the coach crowd” are primarily Leach detractors. Logically you would think they would appreciate the program Leach has built if they truly believe 8-4 is a major disappointment.

Well said.