A few football thoughts....

[HoopsDawg]

1. Can our 5 block 3 this year in the SEC? I think some message board posters with their wool have forgotten how bad our scheme was before Charles Cross started playing like an NFL LT last year. Cross is gone. We are going to have issues. Maybe not as bad as the bowl game without Cross, but look back to the 2020 season.

2. When teams can drop 8 AND don't have to spy on the QB, that makes it really tough on the offense. I don't see us beating UK or Arkansas this year. They know how to defend Leach. Prediction: 6-6, low tier bowl.

3. Leach can commit to a couple of more draws and traps per game but as long as our splits are so wide, it won't matter. Physical run blocking is part scheme and part mentality that is difficult to achieve in the Air Raid.

4. FYI: If anyone wants to know what the "perfect scheme" for MSU football is, watch the Baltimore Ravens. Mobile QB, Power running game, multiple formations (2 TE's, FB, Pistol, etc.) and play-action, downfield passing game. I go back to the greatest coach in MSU history, Jackie Sherrill, at "MSU we need to play physical football, bring your lunch pale" We aren't going to win track meets with the elite recruiting programs over time.

[Liverpooldawg]

1. Can our 5 block 3 this year in the SEC? I think some message board posters with their wool have forgotten how bad our scheme was before Charles Cross started playing like an NFL LT last year. Cross is gone. We are going to have issues. Maybe not as bad as the bowl game without Cross, but look back to the 2020 season.

2. When teams can drop 8 AND don't have to spy on the QB, that makes it really tough on the offense. I don't see us beating UK or Arkansas this year. They know how to defend Leach. Prediction: 6-6, low tier bowl.

3. Leach can commit to a couple of more draws and traps per game but as long as our splits are so wide, it won't matter. Physical run blocking is part scheme and part mentality that is difficult to achieve in the Air Raid.

4. FYI: If anyone wants to know what the "perfect scheme" for MSU football is, watch the Baltimore Ravens. Mobile QB, Power running game, multiple formations (2 TE's, FB, Pistol, etc.) and play-action, downfield passing game. I go back to the greatest coach in MSU history, Jackie Sherrill, at "MSU we need to play physical football, bring your lunch pale" We aren't going to win track meets with the elite recruiting programs over time.

YEP

[TaleofTwoDogs]

Apparently, Cohen didn't consult with Jackie on this one. **

But I agree also with what HoopsDawg is saying.

[DownwardDawg]

I agree with #4 100%!!!!
A nice mix of JWS and Mullen's offense.

[Coach34]

Well Sir you just dont know what you are talking about because Year 3 for Leach in any program is awesome!!!

This is by far his best roster at State and he has his QB who is going to be for the Heisman come December!!!!`

We were a kicker away from 9-3 last year and we are now better!!! Stop being a Leach hater!!!!!!!!!!

[PGHBulldogBG]

There is no doubt the OL is a concern and the reason I can?t get on board with these 10 win predictions some are making. That being said, our defense is going to be very good and is going to be the main reason I?m on board with us winning 8. 7 or 8 wins is most likely but one of those wins to be Ole Miss

[PikeDawg15]

1. Can our 5 block 3 this year in the SEC? I think some message board posters with their wool have forgotten how bad our scheme was before Charles Cross started playing like an NFL LT last year. Cross is gone. We are going to have issues. Maybe not as bad as the bowl game without Cross, but look back to the 2020 season.

2. When teams can drop 8 AND don't have to spy on the QB, that makes it really tough on the offense. I don't see us beating UK or Arkansas this year. They know how to defend Leach. Prediction: 6-6, low tier bowl.

3. Leach can commit to a couple of more draws and traps per game but as long as our splits are so wide, it won't matter. Physical run blocking is part scheme and part mentality that is difficult to achieve in the Air Raid.

4. FYI: If anyone wants to know what the "perfect scheme" for MSU football is, watch the Baltimore Ravens. Mobile QB, Power running game, multiple formations (2 TE's, FB, Pistol, etc.) and play-action, downfield passing game. I go back to the greatest coach in MSU history, Jackie Sherrill, at "MSU we need to play physical football, bring your lunch pale" We aren't going to win track meets with the elite recruiting programs over time.

oh yeah, Kentucky REALLY knew how to defend against the air raid last season. Kentucky really did lock down MSU. They beat the hell out of us didnt they.

Arkansas really locked down the air raid in a game where the special teams played like a middle school 1A team and if traylon burkes doesnt flop like lebron james state wouldve still won the game


59 points total in those games not counting missed field goals and dropped passes. Kentucky and arkansas sure did lock us up.

[PikeDawg15]

There is no doubt the OL is a concern and the reason I can?t get on board with these 10 win predictions some are making. That being said, our defense is going to be very good and is going to be the main reason I?m on board with us winning 8. 7 or 8 wins is most likely but one of those wins to be Ole Miss

8-4 with losses to alabama georgia A$M, and one of LSU/Ole Miss would be what im thinking. ( I want to say we upset georgia but I just cant put money on that lol)

[PMDawg]

Well Sir you just dont know what you are talking about because Year 3 for Leach in any program is awesome!!!

This is by far his best roster at State and he has his QB who is going to be for the Heisman come December!!!!`

We were a kicker away from 9-3 last year and we are now better!!! Stop being a Leach hater!!!!!!!!!!

You've set your dominoes up all summer. It's almost time to see which way they fall. I'm ready to observe.

[Coach34]

You've set your dominoes up all summer. It's almost time to see which way they fall. I'm ready to observe.

I find this year very interesting

On the positive:

Veteran QB with veteran OL
3rd year under Leach
Solid WR group
Good RB's
Very good DL
Good LB's
Good Secondary
Defense should be top notch
Veteran teams at State usually rack up wins

Negatives?

Air Raid in Red Zone
Looked terrible in rain games
Georgia on the schedule
Leach's history of losing in a wtf fashion

Ready to see how it turns out

[Maroonthirteen]

The things I worry about is the OL and speed in the defensive front and our DBs.

Rogers gets the ball out so fast. Hopefully that will mask any OL weakness.
Liberty Bowl. Memphis
RT KJones. RT KJones
RG Dollar Bill. RG. Smith or Reese???
C Sharp. C. Sharp
LG. Smith. LG N Jones
LT N Jones. LT. Dollar Bill

LB: after watching the Liberybowl, we need more speed there. I assume we will go with the same guys though as that is our only options. Wheat, Jett, Watson,

The schedule .... it's going to be a roller coaster ride. (I'll need to remind myself.). 3-1 maybe 4-0 to start. Then hopefully 2-2 in October. Then hopefully 3-1 in November.

[Maverick91]

Yawn? same old same old. I?ve gone back watched a few of our games last year. It?s stupid how close we were to being a 10 win team last year. Errors occurred that should never happen. Inexperience and lack of concentration hurt us a lot. Ie ( green not breaking down on LSUs first touchdown, marks and griffin dropping touchdowns in the egg, the entire Memphis game) to say a few. We beat Kentucky well last year, arky we won aswell. don?t know why people keep forgetting that the 4th down pass to keep their drive going was not a penalty. We won that game outright (thanks refs).

I?ll give you the oline. But we have to remember the scheme for our oline is so different from what has ever been ran at State.

[MaroonFlounder]

I find this year very interesting

On the positive:


Good RB's


Negatives?

Air Raid in Red Zone



This right here is what will make or break the season.

You would think that the positive would fix the negative, but only if Leach went to the restroom once his offense gets into the redzone....and a Jackie Sherrill staff came in to handle redzone opportunities.

We can't settle for FGs while our opponents are getting TDs.

[MaroonFlounder]

I?ll give you the oline. But we have to remember the scheme for our oline is so different from what has ever been ran at State.

An Air Raid O-Line gets manhandled in the redzone. Defense has to cover less space and can cheat the LBs up to the LOS. Our running game is NOT a power scheme. Our RBs are receivers first, run second. Do we even hand off in practices? IDK because I have never seen a Leach team in practice.

[HoopsDawg]

Yawn? same old same old. I?ve gone back watched a few of our games last year. It?s stupid how close we were to being a 10 win team last year. Errors occurred that should never happen. Inexperience and lack of concentration hurt us a lot. Ie ( green not breaking down on LSUs first touchdown, marks and griffin dropping touchdowns in the egg, the entire Memphis game) to say a few. We beat Kentucky well last year, arky we won aswell. don?t know why people keep forgetting that the 4th down pass to keep their drive going was not a penalty. We won that game outright (thanks refs).

I?ll give you the oline. But we have to remember the scheme for our oline is so different from what has ever been ran at State.

We had the 2 greatest comebacks in school history to win 2 of our games. You can't play the what if game.

[Maroonthirteen]

Yeah. I'd love to believe the ...dumb luck here and there cost of games theory.... but the flaw with that theory, there is no guarantee we won't have bad luck here or there this year. The key is to be very good. So you score in the red zone and don't rely on kickers. Also to be in a position where you don't need a call to win. Or one call loses you the game.

Anyways, I'll be there, bell in hand. But I'm nervous.

[Maverick91]

Lol same! And agreed it would be nice to be able to trust a running game against most of your games. But I wonder if the comfort level with our passing attack will make up for that?

[Maverick91]

I?m not what iffing. Just facts.

[Johnson85]

1. Can our 5 block 3 this year in the SEC? I think some message board posters with their wool have forgotten how bad our scheme was before Charles Cross started playing like an NFL LT last year. Cross is gone. We are going to have issues. Maybe not as bad as the bowl game without Cross, but look back to the 2020 season.

2. When teams can drop 8 AND don't have to spy on the QB, that makes it really tough on the offense. I don't see us beating UK or Arkansas this year. They know how to defend Leach. Prediction: 6-6, low tier bowl. We scored as much on UK as any SEC team not named Vandy or Auburn last year. They don't know how to defend leach anymore than anybody else that can't get QB pressure with 3 rushers. If our OL can be OK, we are going to have a good year. It's very questionable whether they're going to be OK, but we don't have to worry about defenses having the air raid figured out.

Leach's system is good because if we can block, we can beat much more talented teams. Leach's system is bad because if we come up against an edge rusher we can't block, he doesn't have a good answer.

[HancockCountyDog]

I agree in premise a lot of what you said, but I just really think that our defense will be just as good, if not better than last year.

I think the offense just has to be better. It was not good at times last year. I just think another year will really help Will and I think we win several more close games this year.

Now, I am assuming that Leach will incorporate more runs this year. Of course I'm just choosing to ignore his history and believe what I want to believe.

[Johnson85]

Liberty Bowl. Memphis
RT KJones. RT KJones
RG Dollar Bill. RG. Smith or Reese???
C Sharp. C. Sharp
LG. Smith. LG N Jones
LT N Jones. LT. Dollar Bill




I had not taken time to consider the composition of the line in the Liberty Bowl v. this year. It's pretty damn concerning when you describe this year's line as "Basically the same as the one at the Liberty Bowl, except switch Dollar Bill from OG to LT and Nick Jones from LT to OG, and also put Reese in instead of Cole Smith."

Now granted I didn't think of Cole Smith as a problem when he started, so if we are able to upgrade from him, that is nice, and Nick Jones was still in his JUCO to SEC transition, so he could be considerably better. But still, Texas Tech gave up over 32 points a game in the regular season and we scored 7? Even taking into account that people were playing new positions, that is pretty shitty.

[FISHDAWG]

I think our main concern would be to hope we don't have a lasting injury to key personnel and hope to keep them healthy ... we have the talent to win more games than we will lose ... I think our O-line will be fine with hopefully fewer penalties from the right tackle this year ... On the other side I keep hearing Dolla Bill is holding his own...Cross gets a whole lot of credit from this board because he was a first round draft pick but he wasn't the entire O-line by himself... We will miss Polk but someone will emerge ... I think (actually hope is a better word) we upgraded our kicking....If we stay healthy we will be fine ... And I assure you we WILL beat Kentucky and probably Arky as well ...... Arnett will take care of his side of the ball with what he has to work with

[Jarius]

1. Can our 5 block 3 this year in the SEC? I think some message board posters with their wool have forgotten how bad our scheme was before Charles Cross started playing like an NFL LT last year. Cross is gone. We are going to have issues. Maybe not as bad as the bowl game without Cross, but look back to the 2020 season.

2. When teams can drop 8 AND don't have to spy on the QB, that makes it really tough on the offense. I don't see us beating UK or Arkansas this year. They know how to defend Leach. Prediction: 6-6, low tier bowl.

3. Leach can commit to a couple of more draws and traps per game but as long as our splits are so wide, it won't matter. Physical run blocking is part scheme and part mentality that is difficult to achieve in the Air Raid.

4. FYI: If anyone wants to know what the "perfect scheme" for MSU football is, watch the Baltimore Ravens. Mobile QB, Power running game, multiple formations (2 TE's, FB, Pistol, etc.) and play-action, downfield passing game. I go back to the greatest coach in MSU history, Jackie Sherrill, at "MSU we need to play physical football, bring your lunch pale" We aren't going to win track meets with the elite recruiting programs over time.

You should probably edit your post about Kentucky knowing how to defend the air raid. I know you have to look pretty hard to find negatives on an MSU team that returns 17 starters off a 7 win team, but you should at least try to be objective and not make up shit.

[HoopsDawg]

You should probably edit your post about Kentucky knowing how to defend the air raid. I know you have to look pretty hard to find negatives on an MSU team that returns 17 starters off a 7 win team, but you should at least try to be objective and not make up shit.

Stoop's 2020 game plan was perfect. Shut us down completely. Awful offense. He did the same game plan in 2021 but UK turned the ball over 4 times. Doesn't mean the strategy was wrong. Will did play great though.

[thf24]

Block 3 with 5 consistently and every perceived problem with this offense solves itself. There should be nothing else to it with the experience we return this year.

[confucius say]

There is no doubt the OL is a concern and the reason I can?t get on board with these 10 win predictions some are making. That being said, our defense is going to be very good and is going to be the main reason I?m on board with us winning 8. 7 or 8 wins is most likely but one of those wins to be Ole Miss

People are predicting 10-2? Are they high?

[confucius say]

Stoop's 2020 game plan was perfect. Shut us down completely. Awful offense. He did the same game plan in 2021 but UK turned the ball over 4 times. Doesn't mean the strategy was wrong. Will did play great though.

And that game plan got torched in 2021. Their 4 turnovers had nothing to do with their defensive game plan.

Stay mostly healthy and We're going to be 7-5/8-4 which, amazingly, is a bad year to some people on here. Swap uga for any other East team at home and we're 8-4/9-3.

[confucius say]

1. Can our 5 block 3 this year in the SEC? I think some message board posters with their wool have forgotten how bad our scheme was before Charles Cross started playing like an NFL LT last year. Cross is gone. We are going to have issues. Maybe not as bad as the bowl game without Cross, but look back to the 2020 season.

2. When teams can drop 8 AND don't have to spy on the QB, that makes it really tough on the offense. I don't see us beating UK or Arkansas this year. They know how to defend Leach. Prediction: 6-6, low tier bowl.

3. Leach can commit to a couple of more draws and traps per game but as long as our splits are so wide, it won't matter. Physical run blocking is part scheme and part mentality that is difficult to achieve in the Air Raid.

4. FYI: If anyone wants to know what the "perfect scheme" for MSU football is, watch the Baltimore Ravens. Mobile QB, Power running game, multiple formations (2 TE's, FB, Pistol, etc.) and play-action, downfield passing game. I go back to the greatest coach in MSU history, Jackie Sherrill, at "MSU we need to play physical football, bring your lunch pale" We aren't going to win track meets with the elite recruiting programs over time.

1. OL is my biggest concern. But I don't think 2020 is a fair comparison. We were transitioning from a power run team to pass sets all game. Nobody knew what they were doing, including a first rounder in cross.

2. What? Neither ark nor ky defended the air raid well last year. We outgained ark 486-393 but missed 3 FG. We outgained KY 438-216 and will was 36-39 for 344 yards.

3. We will never be a physical run blocking team under leach.

4. Jws is not the greatest coach in our history.
More to the point, that power running game that you say is the perfect offense for us failed us the better part of 120 years. I'd much rather have a mobile qb and throw the football.

[Prediction? Pain.]

I've been MIA for a while, but as I'm starting to peruse the site more frequently in the run up to the season, I'm finding that the preseason threads have been all over the map, y'all. Floors of 9 or 10 wins? Ceilings of 5 or 6? We're both beating UGA and definitely losing to Arkansas and Kentucky? Leach is simultaneously the best and worst offensive coach we've had in decades? It's like we've all decided to do shrooms and now can't figure out which pant leg we're supposed to put on first.

But I'm game to micro dose with the rest of you. Here are my thoughts on some of the jibber jabber:


1. Can our 5 block 3 this year in the SEC? I think some message board posters with their wool have forgotten how bad our scheme was before Charles Cross started playing like an NFL LT last year. Cross is gone. We are going to have issues. Maybe not as bad as the bowl game without Cross, but look back to the 2020 season.

2. When teams can drop 8 AND don't have to spy on the QB, that makes it really tough on the offense. I don't see us beating UK or Arkansas this year. They know how to defend Leach. Prediction: 6-6, low tier bowl.

3. Leach can commit to a couple of more draws and traps per game but as long as our splits are so wide, it won't matter. Physical run blocking is part scheme and part mentality that is difficult to achieve in the Air Raid.

4. FYI: If anyone wants to know what the "perfect scheme" for MSU football is, watch the Baltimore Ravens. Mobile QB, Power running game, multiple formations (2 TE's, FB, Pistol, etc.) and play-action, downfield passing game. I go back to the greatest coach in MSU history, Jackie Sherrill, at "MSU we need to play physical football, bring your lunch pale" We aren't going to win track meets with the elite recruiting programs over time.


Our offense in 2020 was horrific and obviously way, way worse that 2021's group, but I don't know that Charles Cross' one additional year under his belt is the sole (or even prime) difference maker. WSU's offense regressed and bombed in Leach's first year, too, and there he wasn't even converting a run-first offense like he was here in 2020. But, just like we did last year, WSU saw marked offensive improvement in Year 2. And that trajectory continued the rest of Leach's stint there (with a random not-so-hot year of offense in 2017 thrown in the mix). Not saying that losing Cross won't hurt. It absolutely will. But I don't see us regressing to a Croom level of ineptitude when we return basically everyone but one stud lineman. And if we do, then yeah, that's total B.S.

Others have mentioned this, but our offense handled Kentucky and Arkansas just fine last year. Kentucky's D gave up more points and yards to us last year than to anyone other than Tennessee. And we gained more yards against Arkansas (486) than everyone other than U. Miss. and Bama.

I don't know, but I feel like the "best" offense for us is whatever works. And last year, Leach's offense worked pretty well. Despite being the 11th most talented team in the conference, in SEC games we were 4th in total offense and 5th in scoring offense. And if you look at advanced stats, like % of drives that resulted in TDs or % of yards available that we gained per drive, last year was the best offense we've had in a decade other than the two led by Dak Prescott in '14 and '15. (And even then, last year's wasn't too far behind.)



Well Sir you just dont know what you are talking about because Year 3 for Leach in any program is awesome!!!

This is by far his best roster at State and he has his QB who is going to be for the Heisman come December!!!!`

We were a kicker away from 9-3 last year and we are now better!!! Stop being a Leach hater!!!!!!!!!!

I haven't gone back to look at Texas Tech, but Year 3 at WSU they went 3 - 9. The offense was pretty good, but it wasn't leaps and bounds better than it was in Year 2. And it certainly wasn't elite. The "Year 3" narrative, at least based upon WSU, confuses me a bit.


I find this year very interesting

On the positive:

Veteran QB with veteran OL
3rd year under Leach
Solid WR group
Good RB's
Very good DL
Good LB's
Good Secondary
Defense should be top notch
Veteran teams at State usually rack up wins

Negatives?

Air Raid in Red Zone
Looked terrible in rain games
Georgia on the schedule
Leach's history of losing in a wtf fashion

Ready to see how it turns out


An Air Raid O-Line gets manhandled in the redzone. Defense has to cover less space and can cheat the LBs up to the LOS. Our running game is NOT a power scheme. Our RBs are receivers first, run second. Do we even hand off in practices? IDK because I have never seen a Leach team in practice.

Last year, we were 7th out of 14 SEC teams in the % of red zone trips that resulted in a TD in SEC games, tied with UGA and ahead of U. Miss and Tennessee, among others. For perspective, the best we've been in that metric since 2009 was Moorhead's last year, when were were 3rd in the SEC. (In 2014 and 2015 with Dak, we were 4th. In 2017 with the Fitz-led run attack, we were 8th.) As for Leach's air raid: In five of Leach's eight seasons at WSU, they finished in the top half of the PaC 12 in red zone TD% in conference games. And in four of those five seasons, they were top three.

[Goldendawg]

An Air Raid O-Line gets manhandled in the redzone. Defense has to cover less space and can cheat the LBs up to the LOS. Our running game is NOT a power scheme. Our RBs are receivers first, run second. Do we even hand off in practices? IDK because I have never seen a Leach team in practice.

Actually we did practice RTDB in last Saturday's practice. Up the middle, off tackle, ( Woody got hurt a little on one play), and believe it or not Will and Sawyer even ran an option at once each. Hail State!

[Homedawg]

People are predicting 10-2? Are they high?

Yes...

[TrapGame]

Here's my football thoughts.

I'm ready for some ****ing football. I'm tired of all the talk good or bad.

[Goldendawg]

Here's my football thoughts.

I'm ready for some ****ing football. I'm tired of all the talk good or bad.

At this time, players are tired of hitting each other at all schools. It's almost time to hit someone else and see how good we really are! Hail State!

[WhiskeyPirate]

1. OL is my biggest concern. But I don't think 2020 is a fair comparison. We were transitioning from a power run team to pass sets all game. Nobody knew what they were doing, including a first rounder in cross.

2. What? Neither ark nor ky defended the air raid well last year. We outgained ark 486-393 but missed 3 FG. We outgained KY 438-216 and will was 36-39 for 344 yards.

3. We will never be a physical run blocking team under leach.

4. Jws is not the greatest coach in our history.
More to the point, that power running game that you say is the perfect offense for us failed us the better part of 120 years. I'd much rather have a mobile qb and throw the football.

Yea that power run game is the answer to beating Alabama and Georgia. I?m sure we can just out talent them with a ?power run game?. Great logic.

I mean why doesn?t Vandy run the power I. Talent on talent, that?s how little schools can beat the big dogs.

The Texas tech game is great for trolling if you omit the fact 16 players were missing off the two deep.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Or maybe just maybe 2020 was our first year running the scheme with no spring and kids who had never done it??

We beat UK and beat Arkansas but got it stolen from us but they own Leach. Ok.

I will ban bet you we go better than 6-6. You and Liverpool hate Leach. Just say I hate leach. Its ok I wont hate you like you hate him

[BuckyIsAB****]

And not to pick this apart anymore but we have tightened the splits when we needed to. It is going to be ok. Leach is never going to change and he is always going to win.

[BuckyIsAB****]

I find this year very interesting

On the positive:

Veteran QB with veteran OL
3rd year under Leach
Solid WR group
Good RB's
Very good DL
Good LB's
Good Secondary
Defense should be top notch
Veteran teams at State usually rack up wins

Negatives?

Air Raid in Red Zone
Looked terrible in rain games
Georgia on the schedule
Leach's history of losing in a wtf fashion

Ready to see how it turns out

Every offense that has ever existed looks like shit in the rain more times than not. We went to UGA with 41 kids and had them beat but a Mullen daddy ball kid playing safety lost the game. I agree the air raid has problems in the red zone but it can be negated. Especially by a veteran group. If only we were still running QB power and counter and sprint out we would be 10-2 for sure then

[RiverCityDawg]

So we're back to saying 2020 is in some way indicative of what this offense is typically going to be for us? Or maybe it was all Charles Cross?

I see we've run out of legitimate arguments...

[BuckyIsAB****]

Stoop's 2020 game plan was perfect. Shut us down completely. Awful offense. He did the same game plan in 2021 but UK turned the ball over 4 times. Doesn't mean the strategy was wrong. Will did play great though.

How many times did we turn it over in 2020 against UK? Google it. Cant have it both ways. I vividly remember a TD turned pick in the end zone thanks to our WR. We went up and down the field on them and then our best skill player got cut after the game bc the greatest coach of all time and then the softest one of all time put up with his crap for years. Leach didnt. You have a one sided memory

[Commercecomet24]

I've been MIA for a while, but as I'm starting to peruse the site more frequently in the run up to the season, I'm finding that the preseason threads have been all over the map, y'all. Floors of 9 or 10 wins? Ceilings of 5 or 6? We're both beating UGA and definitely losing to Arkansas and Kentucky? Leach is simultaneously the best and worst offensive coach we've had in decades? It's like we've all decided to do shrooms and now can't figure out which pant leg we're supposed to put on first.

But I'm game to micro dose with the rest of you. Here are my thoughts on some of the jibber jabber:




Our offense in 2020 was horrific and obviously way, way worse that 2021's group, but I don't know that Charles Cross' one additional year under his belt is the sole (or even prime) difference maker. WSU's offense regressed and bombed in Leach's first year, too, and there he wasn't even converting a run-first offense like he was here in 2020. But, just like we did last year, WSU saw marked offensive improvement in Year 2. And that trajectory continued the rest of Leach's stint there (with a random not-so-hot year of offense in 2017 thrown in the mix). Not saying that losing Cross won't hurt. It absolutely will. But I don't see us regressing to a Croom level of ineptitude when we return basically everyone but one stud lineman. And if we do, then yeah, that's total B.S.

Others have mentioned this, but our offense handled Kentucky and Arkansas just fine last year. Kentucky's D gave up more points and yards to us last year than to anyone other than Tennessee. And we gained more yards against Arkansas (486) than everyone other than U. Miss. and Bama.

I don't know, but I feel like the "best" offense for us is whatever works. And last year, Leach's offense worked pretty well. Despite being the 11th most talented team in the conference, in SEC games we were 4th in total offense and 5th in scoring offense. And if you look at advanced stats, like % of drives that resulted in TDs or % of yards available that we gained per drive, last year was the best offense we've had in a decade other than the two led by Dak Prescott in '14 and '15. (And even then, last year's wasn't too far behind.)




I haven't gone back to look at Texas Tech, but Year 3 at WSU they went 3 - 9. The offense was pretty good, but it wasn't leaps and bounds better than it was in Year 2. And it certainly wasn't elite. The "Year 3" narrative, at least based upon WSU, confuses me a bit.





Last year, we were 7th out of 14 SEC teams in the % of red zone trips that resulted in a TD in SEC games, tied with UGA and ahead of U. Miss and Tennessee, among others. For perspective, the best we've been in that metric since 2009 was Moorhead's last year, when were were 3rd in the SEC. (In 2014 and 2015 with Dak, we were 4th. In 2017 with the Fitz-led run attack, we were 8th.) As for Leach's air raid: In five of Leach's eight seasons at WSU, they finished in the top half of the PaC 12 in red zone TD% in conference games. And in four of those five seasons, they were top three.

As always, great stuff, my man! So many people on here post their opinion and state it as fact without actual facts to back it up. Looks totally different when somebody(like you always do)brings it in black and white. Thanks again Pain for posting. Post more please!

[Jarius]

Stoop's 2020 game plan was perfect. Shut us down completely. Awful offense. He did the same game plan in 2021 but UK turned the ball over 4 times. Doesn't mean the strategy was wrong. Will did play great though.

Coulda shoulda woulda, right? We dominated them in all facets of the game. Will had his best game of the year. You only apply your argument to one side because you have your mind made up. Their game plan in 2020 was perfect because KJ Costello was our quarterback and then we brought in a true freshman who had nearly zero experience. We turned it over a whole bunch in 20 like they did in 21 but somehow they have the perfect defense to stop us and not the other way around. You can have an issue with Leach’s tenure so far without making up arguments like this to support your issues.

[schddog72]

1. Can our 5 block 3 this year in the SEC? I think some message board posters with their wool have forgotten how bad our scheme was before Charles Cross started playing like an NFL LT last year. Cross is gone. We are going to have issues. Maybe not as bad as the bowl game without Cross, but look back to the 2020 season.

2. When teams can drop 8 AND don't have to spy on the QB, that makes it really tough on the offense. I don't see us beating UK or Arkansas this year. They know how to defend Leach. Prediction: 6-6, low tier bowl.

3. Leach can commit to a couple of more draws and traps per game but as long as our splits are so wide, it won't matter. Physical run blocking is part scheme and part mentality that is difficult to achieve in the Air Raid.

4. FYI: If anyone wants to know what the "perfect scheme" for MSU football is, watch the Baltimore Ravens. Mobile QB, Power running game, multiple formations (2 TE's, FB, Pistol, etc.) and play-action, downfield passing game. I go back to the greatest coach in MSU history, Jackie Sherrill, at "MSU we need to play physical football, bring your lunch pale" We aren't going to win track meets with the elite recruiting programs over time.

Was it a light-colored "pail"?

[viverlibre]

1. Can our 5 block 3 this year in the SEC?

It doesn't work that way. DCs scheme a one-on-one with their best rusher on your worst O lineman. They may do this by sticking their best rusher on the outside (versus a weak tackle), they put another lineman right next to him to occupy the guard, then fake a blitz (to freeze the center and possibly the guard on the other side). There is another rusher on the other side to occupy that tackle (and possibly that guard). They can do this freely when there is no running game threat and the QB is not mobile. It is a one-on-one matchup, not a 5-on-3.

[HoopsCoach21]

at "MSU we need to play physical football, bring your lunch pale" We aren't going to win track meets with the elite recruiting programs over time.

Can?t believe we went away from our bread and butter power run game that?s made us an elite power all these years. Oh wait?

We aren?t going to win in the trenches with these elite recruiting programs over time either. And if we?re being honest we aren?t going to win period against these elite recruiting programs OVER TIME (consistently).

I?m as skeptical as anyone about the air raid, but what we?ve been doing for 150 years hasn?t worked so great. So maybe the air raid gives us a shot to steal a win or two we shouldn?t because it?s different.

Either way I?m excited about this defense and to see what Leach can do with a 3rd year QB and players that have been in the system a while.

[RezDog7]

I'm convinced that some of you are the same person arguing with yourself. Put me down as a vote for passing the ball over running up the middle on 3rd and 7. Talk about predictable. Luckily Dak and Fitz were talented enough to make that shit work sometimes.

[memsu06]

We're going to be Leach's 2008 Texas Tech.

We have 3 solid RBs. Leach does run the ball, watch some of his 2008 Texas Tech games.

Will will have 3 years under Leach, and I think he makes the next step.

Our WRs as a group are better than any in recent history.

Leach has never had a defense like ours. I think we shut most teams down in the running game and our secondary should be much improved. We have better edge rushers to put pressure on QBs.

We'll beat LSU, ARK, Kentucky, and Ole Miss.

I think the OL improves enough as a whole that we'll be ok.

Quit being down on MSU, I was there during the end of Jackie and beginning of the Croom years. We aren't the same team that got beat by Maine.

Did you forget Mullen dropped a game to South Alabama?

You can't even use the 2020 season for metrics.

[Todd4State]

I've been MIA for a while, but as I'm starting to peruse the site more frequently in the run up to the season, I'm finding that the preseason threads have been all over the map, y'all. Floors of 9 or 10 wins? Ceilings of 5 or 6? We're both beating UGA and definitely losing to Arkansas and Kentucky? Leach is simultaneously the best and worst offensive coach we've had in decades? It's like we've all decided to do shrooms and now can't figure out which pant leg we're supposed to put on first.

But I'm game to micro dose with the rest of you. Here are my thoughts on some of the jibber jabber:




Our offense in 2020 was horrific and obviously way, way worse that 2021's group, but I don't know that Charles Cross' one additional year under his belt is the sole (or even prime) difference maker. WSU's offense regressed and bombed in Leach's first year, too, and there he wasn't even converting a run-first offense like he was here in 2020. But, just like we did last year, WSU saw marked offensive improvement in Year 2. And that trajectory continued the rest of Leach's stint there (with a random not-so-hot year of offense in 2017 thrown in the mix). Not saying that losing Cross won't hurt. It absolutely will. But I don't see us regressing to a Croom level of ineptitude when we return basically everyone but one stud lineman. And if we do, then yeah, that's total B.S.

Others have mentioned this, but our offense handled Kentucky and Arkansas just fine last year. Kentucky's D gave up more points and yards to us last year than to anyone other than Tennessee. And we gained more yards against Arkansas (486) than everyone other than U. Miss. and Bama.

I don't know, but I feel like the "best" offense for us is whatever works. And last year, Leach's offense worked pretty well. Despite being the 11th most talented team in the conference, in SEC games we were 4th in total offense and 5th in scoring offense. And if you look at advanced stats, like % of drives that resulted in TDs or % of yards available that we gained per drive, last year was the best offense we've had in a decade other than the two led by Dak Prescott in '14 and '15. (And even then, last year's wasn't too far behind.)




I haven't gone back to look at Texas Tech, but Year 3 at WSU they went 3 - 9. The offense was pretty good, but it wasn't leaps and bounds better than it was in Year 2. And it certainly wasn't elite. The "Year 3" narrative, at least based upon WSU, confuses me a bit.





Last year, we were 7th out of 14 SEC teams in the % of red zone trips that resulted in a TD in SEC games, tied with UGA and ahead of U. Miss and Tennessee, among others. For perspective, the best we've been in that metric since 2009 was Moorhead's last year, when were were 3rd in the SEC. (In 2014 and 2015 with Dak, we were 4th. In 2017 with the Fitz-led run attack, we were 8th.) As for Leach's air raid: In five of Leach's eight seasons at WSU, they finished in the top half of the PaC 12 in red zone TD% in conference games. And in four of those five seasons, they were top three.

Outstanding post as usual!

[Todd4State]

Every year it's the same thing over and over.

"We gotta run the ball because we're MSU and that's what we do. Leach's offense won't work because he doesn't run it enough. So and so at wherever figured out how to stop Leach and now everyone is going to do that and we'll never score"

And then it works. But rinse and repeat.

If anyone thinks that Kentucky and Arkansas was able to shut us down last year then we may have the best offensive system on the planet considering Will set a completion percentage record against Kentucky and we basically moved the ball at will on Arkansas.

And did someone actually say that Jackie Sherrill- the guy that fired Bruce Arians- knew what was best for MSU offensively? LOL. Watch some videos of our QB play from that era and then watch Will. Some of our QB's from that era look like 8th graders compared to Will last year as far as footwork and reads go. It was ugly under Jackie! But I guess some people think winning 20-13 is more exciting than scoring a bunch of points. But that's not me.

Our PPG right now were right in line with Dan's pre- Dak years when everyone thought the offense was "so creative". And pretty close to what they were overall throughout Dan's tenure. And Leach's totals were stunted by our trash field goal kicking unit otherwise we would have been right there too likely.

[Todd4State]

We're going to be Leach's 2008 Texas Tech.

We have 3 solid RBs. Leach does run the ball, watch some of his 2008 Texas Tech games.

Will will have 3 years under Leach, and I think he makes the next step.

Our WRs as a group are better than any in recent history.

Leach has never had a defense like ours. I think we shut most teams down in the running game and our secondary should be much improved. We have better edge rushers to put pressure on QBs.

We'll beat LSU, ARK, Kentucky, and Ole Miss.

I think the OL improves enough as a whole that we'll be ok.

Quit being down on MSU, I was there during the end of Jackie and beginning of the Croom years. We aren't the same team that got beat by Maine.

Did you forget Mullen dropped a game to South Alabama?

You can't even use the 2020 season for metrics.

I agree. Defense and special teams are much more key to us and were by far a bigger issue than our offense last year. I think we'll be improved in all three phases. Schedule is more difficult though so we'll see what that yields.

[memsu06]

Last year we were very close to 9 wins.

Memphis officiating.

LSU blunders.

ARK officiating and special teams.

Everyone had us finishing last the SEC West last year. We were dang close to being #2 or #3 in the West.

I was watching someone on Youtube explain that MSU might be the highest ranked 4 loss team this year. He was very critical of the AP polls that only base it on wins and losses. He had MSU ranked about #20 right now.

We're ranked #10 in the country for returning production. The players have learned from their mistakes, and we've taken to the portal to fill defensive and special teams holes.

Dan always had major holes in his teams. Leach seems to go about filling holes in a very methodical way.

Without Leach do we come back from 28-3 at Auburn. What about the La Tech game?

[Todd4State]

Last year we were very close to 9 wins.

Memphis officiating.

LSU blunders.

ARK officiating and special teams.

Everyone had us finishing last the SEC West last year. We were dang close to being #2 or #3 in the West.

I was watching someone on Youtube explain that MSU might be the highest ranked 4 loss team this year. He was very critical of the AP polls that only base it on wins and losses. He had MSU ranked about #20 right now.

We're ranked #10 in the country for returning production. The players have learned from their mistakes, and we've taken to the portal to fill defensive and special teams holes.

Dan always had major holes in his teams. Leach seems to go about filling holes in a very methodical way.

Without Leach do we come back from 28-3 at Auburn. What about the La Tech game?

Leach also had to essentially rebuild after Moorhead. Dan didn't do him a lot of favors in recruiting as far as the upper classmen he inherited are concerned either.

But to answer your question- no we don't come back on either of those teams without Leach.

[Cooterpoot]

OL is going to be bad. I'm just preparing you. But anyone that thinks the Ravens offense is what we should run has lost their damn minds. Sorry Hoops.

[basedog]

OL is going to be bad. I'm just preparing you. But anyone that thinks the Ravens offense is what we should run has lost their damn minds. Sorry Hoops.

I don't know if the OL will be bad, but I do think there is some concerns, especially the lack of quality depth. Only thing that really makes up for a bad OL is quick passes, just stand in the way, LOL.

I think we will be improved, but the schedule is brutal, I know it's like this every year, 7 wins and win the bowl game to have 8 seems ok for me.

[Hot Rock]

Well Sir you just dont know what you are talking about because Year 3 for Leach in any program is awesome!!!

This is by far his best roster at State and he has his QB who is going to be for the Heisman come December!!!!`

We were a kicker away from 9-3 last year and we are now better!!! Stop being a Leach hater!!!!!!!!!!

You are so full of shit

[Hot Rock]

Leach can?t coach crowd is out in full force these days. Bullshit thread for a group that can?t fathom Leach actually can coach and recruit.

[TrapGame]

OL is going to be bad. I'm just preparing you. But anyone that thinks the Ravens offense is what we should run has lost their damn minds. Sorry Hoops.

Says who? You got a source or something? Or just wishful thinking?

The only concern I heard was week one of camp. Week two was a huge improvement. Coaches were even a little surprised at the turnaround.

[TrapGame]

You are so full of shit

He's laying it on too thick. He wants Leach to lose just like half the posters on this thread. It "proves" them right. Then we can go back and do it the way Jackie did and become dinosaurs again.

[Catfish]

He's laying it on too thick. He wants Leach to lose just like half the posters on this thread. It "proves" them right. Then we can go back and do it the way Jackie did and become dinosaurs again.

Exactly!

[basedog]

He's laying it on too thick. He wants Leach to lose just like half the posters on this thread. It "proves" them right. Then we can go back and do it the way Jackie did and become dinosaurs again.

I'm pulling for Leach and a winning season. I see nothing wrong with my prediction being 7 wins, in saying this I still say we gotta run the ball and have success. Seems we just ran a few times the last couple of years to see if we surprised the defense. Hasn't worked. The main reason to run the ball some, is the Sec defenses are so fast and physical.

Just saying, I have a buddy who is a huge Leach fan, says he is the best thing since the slice of bread. Thinks like some on ED we are gonna win 9 games and maybe 10. I'm like how many times have we ever won 10 games and not many 9 games. I sure hope we do! Btw, he hates ED, big genespage supporter, says he gets his money worth paying $100, so be it for him, I just like free now days dealing with sport information!

Hailstate!

[TrapGame]

Without Leach do we come back from 28-3 at Auburn. What about the La Tech game?

Dan couldn't even come back and beat South Alabama. Hell, I remember most SEC teams could get 10-14 point leads on us and it was over for Dan. He'd get that constipated look on his face and start chewing his play chart. Talk about a poker tell. I bet Dan sucked at poker.

Will grew up during that Tech game which proved invaluable for the Auburn comeback.

[Coach34]

He's laying it on too thick. He wants Leach to lose just like half the posters on this thread. It "proves" them right. Then we can go back and do it the way Jackie did and become dinosaurs again.

Too funny.

A) I never want us to lose. I just get joy out of sticking it to people when they are wrong. (Just as many do to me on that rare occasion I am)

B) I'm really interested to see what happens this season. This should be a team that competes for 10 wins. Veteran team with lots of experience. Tied for the most returning starters in the SEC. Defense should be very good. Pass rush should be better. Secondary should be better at safety for sure. However, the Airbone still has people wondering if it can get us there. Plus- what adjustments do defenses make against it this season?

C) Nobody has ever seen me call for the "days of Jackie". I havent had a team line-up in the I formation since 1995. I havent had a team take a snap from under Center (except for a 2pt conversion) since I got back into coaching in 2016. I do however think the Mullen/Freezus way of coaching offense suits Mississippi and its surrounding area of talent much better than the Airbone. Both of those guys got Mississippi programs into the Top 5 conversation- something Leach and the Airbone will almost assuredly never be. Mullen couldnt recruit consistently enough at WR and OL while Freezus needed to recruit better on D and a little more team discipline. But both hugely successful in the Magnolia state.

[TrapGame]

I'm pulling for Leach and a winning season. I see nothing wrong with my prediction being 7 wins, in saying this I still say we gotta run the ball and have success. Seems we just ran a few times the last couple of years to see if we surprised the defense. Hasn't worked. The main reason to run the ball some, is the Sec defenses are so fast and physical.

Just saying, I have a buddy who is a huge Leach fan, says he is the best thing since the slice of bread. Thinks like some on ED we are gonna win 9 games and maybe 10. I'm like how many times have we ever won 10 games and not many 9 games. I sure hope we do! Btw, he hates ED, big genespage supporter, says he gets his money worth paying $100, so be it for him, I just like free now days dealing with sport information!

Hailstate!

I hear ya Base.

Number #1: I ain't giving Gene Swindoll shit. I've got a buddy that stopped posting over here b/c of 34. He posts on Gene's now.

Now we ran the ball quite a bit for Leach's system last year. UK and NC State being just two examples. People need to do some research. Leach's 2008 Texas Tech team probably ran the ball more than any team he's ever had. They had Baron Batch as the starting RB. He would go on to play for the Steelers. Some of y'all can't see the trees for the forest. We moved the ball on some pretty good defenses last season.

For the record I'm saying 8-4 w/ a decent shot at 9-3.

[TrapGame]

Too funny.

A) I never want us to lose. I just get joy out of sticking it to people when they are wrong. (Just as many do to me on that rare occasion I am)

B) I'm really interested to see what happens this season. This should be a team that competes for 10 wins. Veteran team with lots of experience. Tied for the most returning starters in the SEC. Defense should be very good. Pass rush should be better. Secondary should be better at safety for sure. However, the Airbone still has people wondering if it can get us there. Plus- what adjustments do defenses make against it this season?

C) Nobody has ever seen me call for the "days of Jackie". I havent had a team line-up in the I formation since 1995. I havent had a team take a snap from under Center (except for a 2pt conversion) since I got back into coaching in 2016. I do however think the Mullen/Freezus way of coaching offense suits Mississippi and its surrounding area of talent much better than the Airbone. Both of those guys got Mississippi programs into the Top 5 conversation- something Leach and the Airbone will almost assuredly never be. Mullen couldnt recruit consistently enough at WR and OL while Freezus needed to recruit better on D and a little more team discipline. But both hugely successful in the Magnolia state.

LOL!

Dude, Freeze was running an offense closer to the AR than Mullen. Freeze did not hesitate to throw it down the field. And often. That's how he beat Bama TWICE. Everything in your post just proves me right. You're gonna get a major hard on if this season goes South. It will make your day b/c bottom line is, you hate the AR. That's all.

But that's you. You do you. This is what makes you Coach34. So don't fail us now.

[confucius say]

Too funny.

A) I never want us to lose. I just get joy out of sticking it to people when they are wrong. (Just as many do to me on that rare occasion I am)

B) I'm really interested to see what happens this season. This should be a team that competes for 10 wins. Veteran team with lots of experience. Tied for the most returning starters in the SEC. Defense should be very good. Pass rush should be better. Secondary should be better at safety for sure. However, the Airbone still has people wondering if it can get us there. Plus- what adjustments do defenses make against it this season?

C) Nobody has ever seen me call for the "days of Jackie". I havent had a team line-up in the I formation since 1995. I havent had a team take a snap from under Center (except for a 2pt conversion) since I got back into coaching in 2016. I do however think the Mullen/Freezus way of coaching offense suits Mississippi and its surrounding area of talent much better than the Airbone. Both of those guys got Mississippi programs into the Top 5 conversation- something Leach and the Airbone will almost assuredly never be. Mullen couldnt recruit consistently enough at WR and OL while Freezus needed to recruit better on D and a little more team discipline. But both hugely successful in the Magnolia state.

The worst recruiter in the west playing the hardest league schedule in the sec should compete for 10 wins? Geez. I don't care if we return all 22 starters. Maybe if you count a bowl game you could argue "compete for 10," meaning 9-3/8-4 with a bowl win gets you to 9 or 10.

I agree Dan's offense fit MS athletes better. But Dan averaged 7.1-4.9 here with his offense. We will see how leach does. Dan went 10-2 because he had an all pro qb from LA who will likely be in the hall of fame one day. Then went 8-4 with the same qb bc he had nothing around him. I still think Dan did a great job here overall.

[Coach34]

LOL!Dude, Freeze was running an offense closer to the AR than Mullen. Freeze did not hesitate to throw it down the field. And often.

Well, thats just incorrect. Chad Kelly ran for over 800 yards in his 2 years. Mississippi threw it down the field because they had some dudes that could go get it- we did not. Bear and his 4.78 40 was made to win against safeties and LB's. We could have stretched the field more with the other Fred but he got kicked out of school before the season in 2015. That's why in my post you saw me say Freezus recruited better at WR than we did. That's pretty obvious.

Not to mention you guys trying to act like Mullen was some kind of ground and pound guy is laughable.

2013? 5th most passes attempted in the SEC
2014? 6th most
2015? MOST passes attempted in the SEC
2016? 5th most
2017? 7th most

Mullen stayed in the top half of the SEC in passes thrown. Stop being ridiculous about the offense and how it was run.

[Coach34]

The worst recruiter in the west playing the hardest league schedule in the sec should compete for 10 wins? Geez. I don't care if we return all 22 starters. Maybe if you count a bowl game you could argue "compete for 10," meaning 9-3/8-4 with a bowl win gets you to 9 or 10.

I agree Dan's offense fit MS athletes better. But Dan averaged 7.1-4.9 here with his offense. We will see how leach does. Dan went 10-2 because he had an all pro qb from LA who will likely be in the hall of fame one day. Then went 8-4 with the same qb bc he had nothing around him. I still think Dan did a great job here overall.

Mullen took over a loser program and was averaging 8 wins per season when he left the program. Even a moron sees the 5 wins in 09 and 7 in 2011 as growing pains. Not to mention he had that 2018 primed for a run when he left.

We will always be the worst recruiter in the West because of the undervalued talent in Mississippi. Doesnt mean the talent isnt there. We have to be a developmental program. Developmental programs win when they have veteran teams. That is us in 2022. This is our shot because next year's team wont be near as good and the expectations will drop quit a bit. Everybody in the SEC has a tough schedule. Auburn plays Bama and Georgia also- except they do it EVERY year. It is what it is. Compete and win games.

[memsu06]

I'm looking forward to the after game reports when some of you have to eat crow when the Airbone is carving up defenses.

[RezDog7]

Well, thats just incorrect. Chad Kelly ran for over 800 yards in his 2 years. Mississippi threw it down the field because they had some dudes that could go get it- we did not. Bear and his 4.78 40 was made to win against safeties and LB's. We could have stretched the field more with the other Fred but he got kicked out of school before the season in 2015. That's why in my post you saw me say Freezus recruited better at WR than we did. That's pretty obvious.

Not to mention you guys trying to act like Mullen was some kind of ground and pound guy is laughable.

2013? 5th most passes attempted in the SEC
2014? 6th most
2015? MOST passes attempted in the SEC
2016? 5th most
2017? 7th most

Mullen stayed in the top half of the SEC in passes thrown. Stop being ridiculous about the offense and how it was run.

What about passes caught? Mullen and he's lazy ass recruiting destroyed our chances at winning at a higher clip.

[TrapGame]

Well, thats just incorrect. Chad Kelly ran for over 800 yards in his 2 years. Mississippi threw it down the field because they had some dudes that could go get it- we did not. Bear and his 4.78 40 was made to win against safeties and LB's. We could have stretched the field more with the other Fred but he got kicked out of school before the season in 2015. That's why in my post you saw me say Freezus recruited better at WR than we did. That's pretty obvious.

Not to mention you guys trying to act like Mullen was some kind of ground and pound guy is laughable.

2013? 5th most passes attempted in the SEC
2014? 6th most
2015? MOST passes attempted in the SEC
2016? 5th most
2017? 7th most

Mullen stayed in the top half of the SEC in passes thrown. Stop being ridiculous about the offense and how it was run.

Now give me the stats on 3rd and 7 QB draws and buck twenty backs up the middle.***

[TrapGame]

I'm looking forward to the after game reports when some of you have to eat crow when the Airbone is carving up defenses.

You have to be present to eat crow. Most will quickly disappear like Baptists in a liquor store. It happened a few times last season. Their agenda wasn't being fed so they stayed away and sulked.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Last year we were very close to 9 wins.

I mentioned this in a post last fall, but it's worth noting again that the sentiment about us being better than our record -- which I know is frustrating, dumb, and all the other things since a team's W/L total is what it is -- isn't just sour grapes. Bill Connelly developed a "post-game win expectancy" stat that is supposed to show which teams played better in a game regardless of the final score. Here's the gist from the horse's mouth back in 2015:


Win Expectancy. Also within the "last year's schedule and results" section, you'll find me using what I'm calling here "Win Expectancy." This communicates how frequently a team would have won a specific game given that game's primary stats. It is intended to say "Given your success rates, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc., you could have expected to win this game X% of the time." It has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments.


He posted the win expectancies for every 2021 game in a spreadsheet here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q7T5HDF9Kp5SBpOqkDF_1dal3GYdPipaLSn75p2I-rg/edit#gid=116418375). For each game, the spreadsheet shows the actual score, the win expectancy based upon how each team played, and then the "adjusted margin," which I believe is what his formula predicts the margin of victory "should" have been on average given the stats in the game.

Here is what our 2021 season looked like:

https://i.postimg.cc/W140NVXN/Win-expectency.png

In three of our five losses, we had win expectancies of over 50%. Egg Bowl was close, Arkansas a little less so, and the Memphis game -- which featured the third-lowest win expectancy by a winning team all season -- was effing brutal.

So yeah, it's still sour grapes to talk about how we "should" have been a 9- or 10-win team. But we really were pretty damn close.

[Commercecomet24]

You have to be present to eat crow. Most will quickly disappear like Baptists in a liquor store. It happened a few times last season. Their agenda wasn't being fed so they stayed away and sulked.

You know it is funny but the in game threads and the post game threads when we lose are more numerous than when we win. I guess the moaning and whining is greater than the good feelings from winning.

[Commercecomet24]

I mentioned this in a post last fall, but it's worth noting again that the sentiment about us being better than our record -- which I know is frustrating, dumb, and all the other things since a team's W/L total is what it is -- isn't just sour grapes. Bill Connelly developed a "post-game win expectancy" stat that is supposed to show which teams played better in a game regardless of the final score. Here's the gist from the horse's mouth back in 2015:



He posted the win expectancies for every 2021 game in a spreadsheet here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q7T5HDF9Kp5SBpOqkDF_1dal3GYdPipaLSn75p2I-rg/edit#gid=116418375). For each game, the spreadsheet shows the actual score, the win expectancy based upon how each team played, and then the "adjusted margin," which I believe is what his formula predicts the margin of victory "should" have been on average given the stats in the game.

Here is what our 2021 season looked like:

https://i.postimg.cc/W140NVXN/Win-expectency.png

In three of our five losses, we had win expectancies of over 50%. Egg Bowl was close, Arkansas a little less so, and the Memphis game -- which featured the third-lowest win expectancy by a winning team all season -- was effing brutal.

So yeah, it's still sour grapes to talk about how we "should" have been a 9- or 10-win team. But we really were pretty damn close.

I have really missed your posts! You really cut through all the subjective bs that most of us post. Post more, please!

[Prediction? Pain.]

I have really missed your posts! You really cut through all the subjective bs that most of us post. Post more, please!

Thanks, dude. I'm probably subconsciously trying to stir myself up a bit. I'm much more apt to get stoked over a kickass loaf of sourdough than sports these days. My 40s are gettin' weird . . . .

Oh, forgot to mention this earlier:

In case anyone's wondering how common it was last year for teams with > 50% win expectancies to lose, it only happened in five games involving SEC teams, three of which were ours. The other two were the UT-U.Miss and UF-Mizzou games.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks, dude. I'm probably subconsciously trying to stir myself up a bit. I'm much more apt to get stoked over a kickass loaf of sourdough than sports these days. My 40s are gettin' weird . . . .

Oh, forgot to mention this earlier:

In case anyone's wondering how common it was last year for teams with > 50% win expectancies to lose, it only happened in five games involving SEC teams, three of which were ours. The other two were the UT-U.Miss and UF-Mizzou games.

You're welcome! I'm right there with you and it gets even weirder in your 50s. The things you used to think were so important(like sports) become less so. Actually more enjoyable now because your favorite team losing doesn't seem like life or death anymore, lol. Always appreciate your analysis and hope to see more! Always so informative!

PS we really need you during baseball season!

[HoopsDawg]

And not to pick this apart anymore but we have tightened the splits when we needed to. It is going to be ok. Leach is never going to change and he is always going to win.

Do you remember when I told you a month ago that Dolla Bill was going to be our starting LT and you told me I was wrong? Just wondering.

[DownwardDawg]

My thoughts- We are always behind everyone else for some reason. We hired Mullen and ran a version of the spread after other schools had been doing it for years. The blue bloods have been moving to heavy pass offenses and they've recruited defensive players to defend those type offenses. What does MSU do? We go to a heavy pass offense once everyone else is geared to stop it. Personally, I would have hired a coach that would have recruited to run a Gus Malzahn type offense with HEAVY emphasis on the run spread. Obviously I would have recruited dual threat QB's only.

With that said, I love Leach and really hope he succeeds. Will Rogers is a true Bulldog and I would love nothing more than for him to win an SEC championship.

Flame away. Just my opinion and what I would do as MSU AD.

[IMissJack]

Stick to basketball, ?hoops?

[thf24]

My thoughts- We are always behind everyone else for some reason. We hired Mullen and ran a version of the spread after other schools had been doing it for years. The blue bloods have been moving to heavy pass offenses and they've recruited defensive players to defend those type offenses. What does MSU do? We go to a heavy pass offense once everyone else is geared to stop it. Personally, I would have hired a coach that would have recruited to run a Gus Malzahn type offense with HEAVY emphasis on the run spread. Obviously I would have recruited dual threat QB's only.

With that said, I love Leach and really hope he succeeds. Will Rogers is a true Bulldog and I would love nothing more than for him to win an SEC championship.

Flame away. Just my opinion and what I would do as MSU AD.

I don't think defenses have evolved towards defending the pass so much as they have defending the spread, whatever mode of attack it might prefer, with more tweener DE/LB and LB/S types. It may hurt us a little more than others not seeing much strict 4-3 personnel anymore, but it's not as if everyone is primarily recruiting for dime looks either.

[Todd4State]

My thoughts- We are always behind everyone else for some reason. We hired Mullen and ran a version of the spread after other schools had been doing it for years. The blue bloods have been moving to heavy pass offenses and they've recruited defensive players to defend those type offenses. What does MSU do? We go to a heavy pass offense once everyone else is geared to stop it. Personally, I would have hired a coach that would have recruited to run a Gus Malzahn type offense with HEAVY emphasis on the run spread. Obviously I would have recruited dual threat QB's only.

With that said, I love Leach and really hope he succeeds. Will Rogers is a true Bulldog and I would love nothing more than for him to win an SEC championship.

Flame away. Just my opinion and what I would do as MSU AD.

Well the one time we tried to go ahead of the curve in football was when we hired Moorhead.

[BrunswickDawg]

Well the one time we tried to go ahead of the curve in football was when we hired Moorhead.

Ah yes, the RPooO offense

[Cooterpoot]

Cohen doesn't catch enough heat about that Morehead hiring. When your fans ask WTF is that, it's a bad hire. Should be the first rule of college football hiring.

[thf24]

Cohen doesn't catch enough heat about that Morehead hiring. When your fans ask WTF is that, it's a bad hire. Should be the first rule of college football hiring.

I'll concur with that one. While I don't recall a significant crowd being strongly displeased with the hire at the time, all the signs that exactly what happened would happen were there about as clearly as any similar situation in recent memory.

[PikeDawg15]

Cohen doesn't catch enough heat about that Morehead hiring. When your fans ask WTF is that, it's a bad hire. Should be the first rule of college football hiring.

I agree but who would you have hired for Mississippi State at that time instead? I dont remember much from that coaching search but Im pretty sure the 2nd option was Jeremy Pruitt..... and we know how that one ended

[PGHBulldogBG]

I'll concur with that one. While I don't recall a significant crowd being strongly displeased with the hire at the time, all the signs that exactly what happened would happen were there about as clearly as any similar situation in recent memory.

Most everyone including myself was extremely displeased with that hire. Honestly it’s the only hire Cohen has made though that made me really scratch my head. From the start I knew it would be a terrible cultural fit and he had no ties to the SEC and only succeeded due to incredible talent. I think he was influenced by the wrong people. This is the first time in a long time that I can remember being pleased with football hire (Leach) basketball hires (Jans and Purcell) and baseball hire (Lemonis). We have 4 good coaches now so I think our athletics will improve over the years and the Moorhead hire will be forgotten.

[PGHBulldogBG]

I agree but who would you have hired for Mississippi State at that time instead? I dont remember much from that coaching search but Im pretty sure the 2nd option was Jeremy Pruitt..... and we know how that one ended

Dave Clawson

[Coach34]

Cohen doesn't catch enough heat about that Morehead hiring. When your fans ask WTF is that, it's a bad hire. Should be the first rule of college football hiring.

I think we are really seeing that it's important for SEC football hires to have some sort of connection to the SEC.

Harsin has proven to be a good coach but he is struggling at Auburn.
JoVester was garbage with us
Mason is considered a good coach but did nothing with Vandy

But the guys with SEC ties are doing much better:

Drinkwitz in B2B bowls
Lame has been a very good hire for Mississippi so far
The Pirate had SEC experience
Beamer has SC trending up
Sam is a perfect fit for the Pigs

It's still about fit and what not- but evidence shows clearly you need a guy with some SEC experience on his resume'. If he hasnt had a tater log and a piece of chicken from a southern quick store- he should not be a candidate for your coaching job.

[Cooterpoot]

I agree but who would you have hired for Mississippi State at that time instead? I dont remember much from that coaching search but Im pretty sure the 2nd option was Jeremy Pruitt..... and we know how that one ended

He listened to the wrong people. He could've found better than a guy that has lost his job almost everywhere except where we hired him from.

[Johnson85]

I think we are really seeing that it's important for SEC football hires to have some sort of connection to the SEC.

Harsin has proven to be a good coach but he is struggling at Auburn.
JoVester was garbage with us
Mason is considered a good coach but did nothing with Vandy

But the guys with SEC ties are doing much better:

Drinkwitz in B2B bowls
Lame has been a very good hire for Mississippi so far
The Pirate had SEC experience
Beamer has SC trending up
Sam is a perfect fit for the Pigs

It's still about fit and what not- but evidence shows clearly you need a guy with some SEC experience on his resume'. If he hasnt had a tater log and a piece of chicken from a southern quick store- he should not be a candidate for your coaching job.

Well, in defense of Cohen, JoMo certainly looked like he had had plenty of tater logs and fried chicken. I probably would have skipped over that part of the background investigation too and just assumed he was going to be able to check that box.

[thf24]

I think we are really seeing that it's important for SEC football hires to have some sort of connection to the SEC.

Harsin has proven to be a good coach but he is struggling at Auburn.
JoVester was garbage with us
Mason is considered a good coach but did nothing with Vandy

But the guys with SEC ties are doing much better:

Drinkwitz in B2B bowls
Lame has been a very good hire for Mississippi so far
The Pirate had SEC experience
Beamer has SC trending up
Sam is a perfect fit for the Pigs

It's still about fit and what not- but evidence shows clearly you need a guy with some SEC experience on his resume'. If he hasnt had a tater log and a piece of chicken from a southern quick store- he should not be a candidate for your coaching job.

Yep. Cohen was obviously trying to repeat the Dan Mullen formula with Joe, but the SEC experience/lack of proved to be a crucial difference.

[Maverick91]

I?ve never really understood the love for him. Can you expound?

[Cooterpoot]

Anyway, if the Air Raid doesn't work this year, it's time to go the route of a Briles type offense. It's a more balance but fast paced offense. Hell, the Air Raid would improve if the pace did.

[1bigdawg]

I am fired up for the season. I believe we will be better in all three phases of the game. I worry about rain. 9-3.

[R2Dawg]

Anyway, if the Air Raid doesn't work this year, it's time to go the route of a Briles type offense. It's a more balance but fast paced offense. Hell, the Air Raid would improve if the pace did.

Agree. If you are going to try and make up for a talent difference with a gimmic O then you have to maximize it. Speed is one thing that does that. Saban hates it because he knows it neutralizes his advantage. Same with OM doing the fake injury thing.

We've decided we want to gimmic so gimmic all the way or go home.

JoMo could have found more success if he didn't help the D out all the time waiting at LOS to set and run a play.

Speed in all areas is a killer - run plays and run them fast.

[confucius say]

Anyway, if the Air Raid doesn't work this year, it's time to go the route of a Briles type offense. It's a more balance but fast paced offense. Hell, the Air Raid would improve if the pace did.

Are you implying it didn't work last year?

[LC Dawg]

I think we are really seeing that it's important for SEC football hires to have some sort of connection to the SEC.

Harsin has proven to be a good coach but he is struggling at Auburn.
JoVester was garbage with us
Mason is considered a good coach but did nothing with Vandy

But the guys with SEC ties are doing much better:

Drinkwitz in B2B bowls
Lame has been a very good hire for Mississippi so far
The Pirate had SEC experience
Beamer has SC trending up
Sam is a perfect fit for the Pigs

It's still about fit and what not- but evidence shows clearly you need a guy with some SEC experience on his resume'. If he hasnt had a tater log and a piece of chicken from a southern quick store- he should not be a candidate for your coaching job.
Yep. And I don't think Kelly is going to work out at LSU.

[confucius say]

Mullen took over a loser program and was averaging 8 wins per season when he left the program. Even a moron sees the 5 wins in 09 and 7 in 2011 as growing pains. Not to mention he had that 2018 primed for a run when he left.

We will always be the worst recruiter in the West because of the undervalued talent in Mississippi. Doesnt mean the talent isnt there. We have to be a developmental program. Developmental programs win when they have veteran teams. That is us in 2022. This is our shot because next year's team wont be near as good and the expectations will drop quit a bit. Everybody in the SEC has a tough schedule. Auburn plays Bama and Georgia also- except they do it EVERY year. It is what it is. Compete and win games.

Did Mullen or leach have more nfl guys on his roster in year 1? I count 15 on the 2009 roster. Prob will be about same on 2020. And Leach certainly took over a worse culture. But fine, if you want to throw out year 1 due to "growing pains" we can do that and see the average regular season win-loss for each when leach is done. I bet they are about the same. Dan minus year 1 was 7.4-4.6

I agree we are a developmental program. That has nothing to do with expecting 10-2. We should never expect 10-2 absent a perfect situation, nfl qb, and perfect schedule (we drew vandy in 2014 and had a hall of fame qb with a veteran defense). We dont have that. Nobody in the industry is predicting 10-2. To frame the expectation as we should compete to be 10-2 is crazy and makes one question your motives.

[Coach34]

I agree we are a developmental program. That has nothing to do with expecting 10-2. We should never expect 10-2 absent a perfect situation, nfl qb, and perfect schedule (we drew vandy in 2014 and had a hall of fame qb with a veteran defense). We dont have that. Nobody in the industry is predicting 10-2. To frame the expectation as we should compete to be 10-2 is crazy and makes one question your motives.

I've never said "expect" 10 wins. I have said this is his shot at 10 wins.

4-0 OOC should happen
We are at home so we have a shot to upset Georgia
We are at home so we have the advantage over A&M
We are at home so we have the advantage over UPig
We are at home and are better than Auburn
We are supposedly better than Kentucky and return more starters. Do you see us as the underdog vs them?
We should be better than Mississippi but on the road.
Playing LSU early is better than playing them later in the year

Veteran teams win games in college football. Just look at Mississippi last year

[Commercecomet24]

I think we are really seeing that it's important for SEC football hires to have some sort of connection to the SEC.

Harsin has proven to be a good coach but he is struggling at Auburn.
JoVester was garbage with us
Mason is considered a good coach but did nothing with Vandy

But the guys with SEC ties are doing much better:

Drinkwitz in B2B bowls
Lame has been a very good hire for Mississippi so far
The Pirate had SEC experience
Beamer has SC trending up
Sam is a perfect fit for the Pigs

It's still about fit and what not- but evidence shows clearly you need a guy with some SEC experience on his resume'. If he hasnt had a tater log and a piece of chicken from a southern quick store- he should not be a candidate for your coaching job.

Yep. Years ago I used to think it didn't matter, but the evidence is clear that SEC experience, especially in this day and age is absolutely critical.

[confucius say]

I've never said "expect" 10 wins. I have said this is his shot at 10 wins.

4-0 OOC should happen
We are at home so we have a shot to upset Georgia
We are at home so we have the advantage over A&M
We are at home so we have the advantage over UPig
We are at home and are better than Auburn
We are supposedly better than Kentucky and return more starters. Do you see us as the underdog vs them?
We should be better than Mississippi but on the road.
Playing LSU early is better than playing them later in the year

Veteran teams win games in college football. Just look at Mississippi last year

You said we should compete for 10 wins.

I guess that can be defined in different ways. I agree that we should compete in just about every game minus Bama. So 11. Maybe 10 depending on how big a step back Georgia takes. But no way does that translate to a realistic 10-2.

And Mississippi doesn't go 10-2 last year against this schedule. They barely beat UT on the road. Wouldn't beat Uga.

[confucius say]

Yep. Years ago I used to think it didn't matter, but the evidence is clear that SEC experience, especially in this day and age is absolutely critical.

I think it depends more on the coach and the fit. Leach hadn't been in the sec in 20+ years and is doing fine. Saban didn't have sec experience before lsu. I think Lincoln Riley could win in the sec. That said, sec experience certainly doesn't hurt. But getting the right guy is more important imo.

[Commercecomet24]

I think it depends more on the coach and the fit. Leach hadn't been in the sec in 20+ years and is doing fine. Saban didn't have sec experience before lsu. I think Lincoln Riley could win in the sec. That said, sec experience certainly doesn't hurt. But getting the right guy is more important imo.

Getting the right guy is definitely the most important but there has been to many HC without SEC experience that have flamed out.

[confucius say]

Yea I do think there is something to understanding the league and what is important. Especially in the trenches.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Didn?t will complete something like 90% in his game against kentucky?

[Schultzy]

TrapGame is Hugh’s side piece.

[TrapGame]

TrapGame is Hugh’s side piece.

Shit, you found me out Ace.

[Schultzy]

I'm looking forward to the after game reports when some of you have to eat crow when the Airbone is carving up defenses.

Yeah, this offense requires rb?s who can break one tackle per series, we don?t have any.

6-6 but it?s a bowl game.

[Todd4State]

I'll concur with that one. While I don't recall a significant crowd being strongly displeased with the hire at the time, all the signs that exactly what happened would happen were there about as clearly as any similar situation in recent memory.

I don't think we had any way of knowing that. He was a head coach at Fordham and was fine there. And sure- different culture and he had a ton of advantages there given the other teams in that league. It wasn't a fit also because of the players we had. They needed someone that was a disciplinarian but on other teams someone is more laid back may have been a better fit. It definitely wasn't a fit for us.

It was really a tricky situation when you think about it. We had a veteran team coming back. Had we brought in an Urban Meyer guy or say someone like Shane Beamer and then hired Rich Rodriguez to go with Bob Shoop as coordinators that probably would have worked much better in hindsight. But then long term how would that work out for us? If we had hired Leach at that time and brought in Minchew a lot of our fans would have been upset that we would be essentially cutting Fitzgerald coming off of a bad injury which was a cheap shot. And knowing MSU fans- we get pretty upset if one of our own is done wrong even if it's for the best for MSU. See Tommy Raffo.


Yep. Cohen was obviously trying to repeat the Dan Mullen formula with Joe, but the SEC experience/lack of proved to be a crucial difference.

As others have said- I have no idea why Cohen took the advice of the people he did. Kind of shows how tone deaf MSU's athletic department is regarding former personnel here.


Yep. And I don't think Kelly is going to work out at LSU.

We'll see. He may be fine there. I think this year they'll definitely take their lumps some.


Yep. Years ago I used to think it didn't matter, but the evidence is clear that SEC experience, especially in this day and age is absolutely critical.

Absolutely. I'm actually excited about the next two seasons because of what we potentially return. We were in basically every game last year except for Alabama and managed to win a few with a team of mostly sophomores.

[Todd4State]

Getting the right guy is definitely the most important but there has been to many HC without SEC experience that have flamed out.

Harsin was always a weird fit at Auburn. I don't think he's a bad coach but he fits in better somewhere like Nevada.


Yeah, this offense requires rb?s who can break one tackle per series, we don?t have any.

6-6 but it?s a bowl game.

I think our running backs will be better this year. And we'll get to see Hargrove and Simeon Price more. Last year our number three running back was a walk-on.

[Cowbell]

Yeah, this offense requires rb?s who can break one tackle per series, we don?t have any.

6-6 but it?s a bowl game.

You can't break tackles when you are getting blown up before you can get your feet set after a catch. Defenses know how to make us dump it down - they force us to do that - and they time it to blow up our rb after 2-3 yards.