Keep an eye on next Tuesday

[starkvegasdawg]

Especially if you live in the western half of MS and south of 82. Models are starting to gain some consistency on a potential severe threat in about 8 days. Not ready to say it's going to happen, but it certainly appears to be something worth watching as the models are starting to kick back some interesting parameters.

And shameless plug, if you're curious as to what I look at, parameter wise, for severe weather then you might find the video below of interest. It's one video of a five part video series I made for my chase team on severe weather topics. Give it a listen if you're having trouble sleeping. You'll either learn a couple things or have you're insomnia cured so win/win.


https://youtu.be/LeWR9JAXu4E

[ArrowDawg]

Especially if you live in the western half of MS and south of 82. Models are starting to gain some consistency on a potential severe threat in about 8 days. Not ready to say it's going to happen, but it certainly appears to be something worth watching as the models are starting to kick back some interesting parameters.

And shameless plug, if you're curious as to what I look at, parameter wise, for severe weather then you might find the video below of interest. It's one video of a five part video series I made for my chase team on severe weather topics. Give it a listen if you're having trouble sleeping. You'll either learn a couple things or have you're insomnia cured so win/win.


https://youtu.be/LeWR9JAXu4E

I was just looking at the hodographs for that day. All I can say is DAMN. I hope things change.

[starkvegasdawg]

I was just looking at the hodographs for that day. All I can say is DAMN. I hope things change.

The hodos, EHI, and SRH all got my attention.

[parabrave]

They better be watching the next 6-12 hours. Storms heading down 20 towards the border and for us Coasties heavy storms heading into SW LA now.

[Duckdog]

Rained like hell in Natchez most of the night. A little over 2 inches

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC has now issued a day 8 severe threat outlook. Those are exceedingly rare. Now, that doesn't mean it's going to be a massive high risk outbreak, but it does mean several of the models are in good enough agreement this far out that something is going to happen.

[DownwardDawg]

Watching this thread. I'll be headed to my place in Covington county from Nashville this weekend. Was gonna drive back to Nashville on Tuesday but probably Monday now.

[parabrave]

Friday gonna be real rough for the Coastal area.

[starkvegasdawg]

Although the SPC has most of the state under the slight risk, I'm still thinking the bullseye will be 100 miles each side of the river south of 82. Yazoo City, Vicksburg, Tallulah area.

[starkvegasdawg]

Looking at the 00z run of the GFS and I'm really not seeing anything to change my mind on Tuesday being a significant severe weather event. I'm also still holding onto my thoughts that south of 82 and west of 55 is still the prime area. With this still 6 days out a lot can change, but the gfs and euro have both been consistent with this. By this weekend we'll be close enough for the NAM suite of models to start giving their opinions.

[Noxdog]

Friday gonna be real rough for the Coastal area.

I?m LA tonight and headed back north in the morning.

What?s the timing of this event.

They are closing schools down here left and right.

[parabrave]

I?m LA tonight and headed back north in the morning.

What?s the timing of this event.

They are closing schools down here left and right.

For the NOLA Coast area from around 3 am to noon on the coast/ For the GPT/BIX area they hve been downgrading the Percp total from 2" to now about .75". But the severe winds, Hail and tornadic activity is elevated.

https://www.weather.gov/images/lix/graphicast/1.png?be6fff89d680fbc827cb44b4c006418e

[Noxdog]

For the NOLA Coast area from around 3 am to noon on the coast/ For the GPT/BIX area they hve been downgrading the Percp total from 2" to now about .75". But the severe winds, Hail and tornadic activity is elevated.

https://www.weather.gov/images/lix/graphicast/1.png?be6fff89d680fbc827cb44b4c006418e

So if I?m leaving Mobile area, say around 10 am, how bad will 45 be north?

[starkvegasdawg]

So if I?m leaving Mobile area, say around 10 am, how bad will 45 be north?

By 10:00 the mobile area will still be in it but should start clearing out about an hour north of there per the HRRR. This is primarily an overnight an early morning event.

[starkvegasdawg]

That said, I'm seeing some chatter about an afternoon round in north AL. MS should be in the clear for the most part.

[parabrave]

So if I?m leaving Mobile area, say around 10 am, how bad will 45 be north?

Probably gonna be when that area will be getting slammed. Leave after 1400 or before 0700.


This is the timing for the Mobile Area.

http://www.weather.gov/images//mob/graphicast/image3.png?58eb47b70f969ac0823039046c5e1ff8

[Noxdog]

By 10:00 the mobile area will still be in it but should start clearing out about an hour north of there per the HRRR. This is primarily an overnight an early morning event.

Thanks brother.

[starkvegasdawg]

Upgrade to enhanced risk for Tuesday now.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOHvdueX0B8rhfI.jpg

[SaintDawg]

Upgrade to enhanced risk for Tuesday now.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOHvdueX0B8rhfI.jpg

Enhanced risk forecast 5 days out? Ouch.

[shoeless joe]

Watching this thread. I'll be headed to my place in Covington county from Nashville this weekend. Was gonna drive back to Nashville on Tuesday but probably Monday now.

If you’re a turkey hunter your gonna have a good time down here this weekend. Been around Taylorsville all week and they’re on fire!

[starkvegasdawg]

Every time it clouds up in the spring anybody loosely affiliated with weather gets asked if this event is going go be another 4/27/11. And that gets egged on by jackasses on social media pumping out fear porn by the dump truck full. So I decided to address a few things.

4/27/11 was a generational level outbreak. The one before then was the super outbreak of 1974. This far out it's impossible to know with any certainty how strong this Tuesday will be. On 4/23/11 they didn't know what was getting ready to happen. So anybody making claims of a massive tornado outbreak Tuesday is straight up full of shit.

That said, here is what we know. The SPC placed most of MS under a day 5 enhanced risk. That has no bearing on how bad it will be and doesn't mean this will end up a high risk. It simply means there's enough model agreement to be reasonably certain we will have severe weather on Tuesday. Now, the models are showing some very favorable parameters for a significant severe weather event. Some of the values are concerning. However, some of the others are just now coming into the low end of the severe threshold. The question is whether those marginal parameters keep trending up or will the high level numbers start coming down. Another mitigating factor is there appears to be little, if any, cap in place during the morning. That can lead to early messy convection that hampers supercell development. Will that continue or will some semblance of an early morning cap be in place to impede early convection? These are just some of the questions that are impossible to answer now. That is why the SPC will not issue a moderate risk before day 3 and a high risk before day 2. If they aren't sure enough to make the call 4 days out then Bob's weather page doesn't have a clue when he's saying it'll be Armageddon this far out.

So, how do I think this plays out? Based on the trends I'm seeing right now it would not surprise me to see parts of MS end up in a moderate risk for Tuesday. My thinking is that area, if it happens, will be primarily west of I-55 and south of Highway 82. By tomorrow afternoon some of the midrange models will start coming into play and it'll be interesting to see what they say. But no need to panic. This is spring in MS. We get storm systems like this every year. Just be prepared. Sunday, a video I made on sheltering during severe weather will hit our YouTube page. It was the fifth and last video in the severe weather series I made. It's currently available now on our Patreon site, but due to the subject of the video, will be made public to everybody on Sunday. So give it a listen and make sure you're ready for severe weather when it affects your area.

[starkvegasdawg]

Even though, per my last post, I still don't think this will be close to a 4/27/11...the following is from the latest SPC discussion for Tuesday. This is some somber wording:

Latest deterministic and ensemble runs of the medium-range global models continue to depict likelihood of a continuation of potentially substantial severe-weather event across the central Gulf Coast states Tuesday and into Wednesday. This includes a reasonable probability of a regional-type tornado outbreak centered over central and southern Mississippi for Tuesday.
As strong upper low/trough over the central and southern Plains region shifts gradually eastward, a belt of very strong mid- and upper-level southwesterlies will likely extend from east Texas across the Tennessee Valley, atop a 60 kt southerly low-level jet. The resulting/anticipated degree of veering and increasing flow with height falls within high-end parameter space for significant tornadoes.

[Cooterpoot]

Already seeing school cancellations for Tuesday.

[starkvegasdawg]

I don't know if the morning runs of the models are a one off or if this is how it's trending but all I can say is holy shit.

[ArrowDawg]

I don't know if the morning runs of the models are a one off or if this is how it's trending but all I can say is holy shit.

Considering I live in Clinton, I concur on that "holy shit."

[msstate7]

I don't know if the morning runs of the models are a one off or if this is how it's trending but all I can say is holy shit.

What's it look like for Philadelphia, ms?

[starkvegasdawg]

What's it look like for Philadelphia, ms?

Definitely in the severe threat but I'm thinking the worst may be your west.

[Commercecomet24]

I don't know if the morning runs of the models are a one off or if this is how it's trending but all I can say is holy shit.

How's it looking for Jones county? Thanks for all the info!

[starkvegasdawg]

How's it looking for Jones county? Thanks for all the info!

I'm still thinking worst is west of 55 and south of 82, but to be honest it's still too soon to be nailing down specifics.

[Commercecomet24]

I'm still thinking worst is west of 55 and south of 82, but to be honest it's still too soon to be nailing down specifics.

Thanks man! Appreciate all you do!

[shoeless joe]

How's it looking for Jones county? Thanks for all the info!

Man you know that ANY severe threat is gonna have a bullseye on smith, Covington, Jones counties

[Commercecomet24]

Man you know that ANY severe threat is gonna have a bullseye on smith, Covington, Jones counties

Man don't you know it! Sucks!

Have had tornadoes go just north of us, just south of us and just west of us the last couple years.

[DownwardDawg]

Man don't you know it! Sucks!

Have had tornadoes go just north of us, just south of us and just west of us the last couple years.

I'm hanging out with the kids on 84 right now!!!!

[Commercecomet24]

I'm hanging out with the kids on 84 right now!!!!

You gonna hang around for the Tuesday fireworks?

[DownwardDawg]

You gonna hang around for the Tuesday fireworks?

Nope!!!!! Lol
I've invited them to Tennessee!!! Haha

[Commercecomet24]

Nope!!!!! Lol
I've invited them to Tennessee!!! Haha

Good idea!

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC has upgraded to a moderate risk. Substantial severe weather and tornado outbreak now expected. This is starting to look like it's going to be a rough day, especially in the red shaded area.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOR2MHoXsAAZBtS?format=jpg&name=900x900

[starkvegasdawg]

With the anticipated significant severe expected Tuesday, we decided to make my last video on sheltering tips publicly available this morning. Give it a watch make sure you're fully prepared just in case.




https://youtu.be/Gpp-L0uKnJk

[parabrave]

Hey Vdog every time I check on the Models they keep on moving the severe threat more to the south. Think CC and Shoeless need to replenish their bunkers?>

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey Vdog every time I check on the Models they keep on moving the severe threat more to the south. Think CC and Shoeless need to replenish their bunkers?>

Definitely been a trend doing that. Also, a lot of the models showing a qlcs type event instead of discrete cells. If that materializes then be more of a wind event and less of a tornado threat. Just got to see how it all plays out.

[parabrave]

Hey you might want to stage out of CCs place. Quick access to the north/south Corridors and East West corridors.

[shoeless joe]

Hey Vdog every time I check on the Models they keep on moving the severe threat more to the south. Think CC and Shoeless need to replenish their bunkers?>

Appreciate the concern…but I only have a family place down in the pine belt. I’m back home in the golden triangle now. Back to the real world tomorrow. We look to be out of the bullseye up here but I’ll keep an eye out just in case.

Back in the 90s two separate tornadoes hit our place in smith county. Destroyed some timber and one threw a 14 ft Jon boat about 150 yards and wrapped it around a light pole. I always pay special attention to the warnings when I’m down that way.

[parabrave]

Hunter going to be getting a lot of Intv walks for now on.

Sorry Wrong thread

[Dolphus Raymond]

It looks like it may be bad. Any update?

[starkvegasdawg]

It looks like it may be bad. Any update?

Potential is there but I'm also seeing something that may mitigate things. Some of the models are showing this more of a qlcs event and less of a discrete cell event. If this ends up being the case Tuesday will be more of a damaging wind threat than a tornado threat. But if discrete cells form out in the warm sector then it could be bad. I'm waiting for the 7:00pm model runs to start coming in around 9:00pm and then the SPC update at 1:00am.

[Commercecomet24]

Potential is there but I'm also seeing something that may mitigate things. Some of the models are showing this more of a qlcs event and less of a discrete cell event. If this ends up being the case Tuesday will be more of a damaging wind threat than a tornado threat. But if discrete cells form out in the warm sector then it could be bad. I'm waiting for the 7:00pm model runs to start coming in around 9:00pm and then the SPC update at 1:00am.

Thanks man! Keep us posted! You're info is invaluable!

[ArrowDawg]

Definitely been a trend doing that. Also, a lot of the models showing a qlcs type event instead of discrete cells. If that materializes then be more of a wind event and less of a tornado threat. Just got to see how it all plays out.

I've also noticed things trending more to the southwest corner of the state, and La. Certainly hope it's more of a QLCS event, regardless.

[starkvegasdawg]

I've also noticed things trending more to the southwest corner of the state, and La. Certainly hope it's more of a QLCS event, regardless.

I've been thinking that area will be ground zero for a while. For a couple days a few models tried to push it further north and one is trying to develop things in the SE so there's some disagreement on things. Why I'm very interested in seeing these updates.

[parabrave]

From NWS New Orleans

https://www.weather.gov/images/lix/graphicast/1.png?7ba3cd74856e126e44f8f390cbe723f2

You're screwed CC.

[defiantdog]

The NAM has this thing lining up still and not sporadic. Will be interesting to see the HRRR. Will hopefully know more in about an hour.

[parabrave]

Wow I just read the NWS shorterm foercast discussion for the New Orleans area and am having brain freeze. Never seen it as long and as detailed.

If you are very bored or want a nerd head explosion here you go:

https://forecast.weather.gov/css/default/images/background1.gif

Sorry try this one.

https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Area%20Forecast%20Discussion

[parabrave]

Hey SVD and Scooba Is this a bad graph?/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032100_fh49_sounding_31.90N_87.77W.png

And please decipher it for us

[defiantdog]

Hey SVD and Scooba Is this a bad graph?/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032100_fh49_sounding_31.90N_87.77W.png

And please decipher it for us
That hodograph is really curved

[starkvegasdawg]

Yeah, it's bad. It's also under done I think. Anytime you see a long curved hodograph like that you have strong speed and directional shear. Tuesday is setting ip to be a bad day. Just looked at the 06 HRRR and it's showing a broken qlcs and a few discretes out ahead of the main line. This will be setting up for multiple storms likely to go tornadic. Chase mode will be activated tomorrow morning. Just a matter of fine tuning exact locations. Time to burn a ton of $4.80 diesel.

[ArrowDawg]

Yeah, it's bad. It's also under done I think. Anytime you see a long curved hodograph like that you have strong speed and directional shear. Tuesday is setting ip to be a bad day. Just looked at the 06 HRRR and it's showing a broken qlcs and a few discretes out ahead of the main line. This will be setting up for multiple storms likely to go tornadic. Chase mode will be activated tomorrow morning. Just a matter of fine tuning exact locations. Time to burn a ton of $4.80 diesel.

Are you seeing what I'm seeing from about Meridian down to the coast around noon?

[parabrave]

Yeah, it's bad. It's also under done I think. Anytime you see a long curved hodograph like that you have strong speed and directional shear. Tuesday is setting ip to be a bad day. Just looked at the 06 HRRR and it's showing a broken qlcs and a few discretes out ahead of the main line. This will be setting up for multiple storms likely to go tornadic. Chase mode will be activated tomorrow morning. Just a matter of fine tuning exact locations. Time to burn a ton of $4.80 diesel.

Hattiesburg or Wiggins.

[parabrave]

Yeah, it's bad. It's also under done I think. Anytime you see a long curved hodograph like that you have strong speed and directional shear. Tuesday is setting ip to be a bad day. Just looked at the 06 HRRR and it's showing a broken qlcs and a few discretes out ahead of the main line. This will be setting up for multiple storms likely to go tornadic. Chase mode will be activated tomorrow morning. Just a matter of fine tuning exact locations. Time to burn a ton of $4.80 diesel.

So this is bad:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032112_fh35_sounding_32.13N_88.82W.png

And this is not so bad?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032112_fh36_sounding_30.73N_89.30W.png

And this is??

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032112_fh36_sounding_30.95N_89.44W.png

[msstate7]

So this is bad:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032112_fh35_sounding_32.13N_88.82W.png

And this is not so bad?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032112_fh36_sounding_30.73N_89.30W.png

And this is??

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032112_fh36_sounding_30.95N_89.44W.png

Explain it to me like I'm 5.

[parabrave]

Explain it to me like I'm 5.

Explain it to me like I'm 4

[starkvegasdawg]

Are you seeing what I'm seeing from about Meridian down to the coast around noon?

I have seen that and it made me pause. I'm just hesitant to think those will be severe due to how far away they are from the heart of the storm. They may be too far out ahead of the best instability and shear to be more than low end severe. Just got to see how the moisture and instability work north.

[starkvegasdawg]

So this is bad:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032112_fh35_sounding_32.13N_88.82W.png

And this is not so bad?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032112_fh36_sounding_30.73N_89.30W.png

And this is??

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032112_fh36_sounding_30.95N_89.44W.png

The first one you'd have a hard time getting severe weather and the other two forget about it. Just ain't happening. Take the middle one for example. You see how all of the wind barbs are basically pointing the same direction as you go from bottom to top? That's indicating unidirectional wind flow (out of the SW here) as you go up in altitude. You want turning with height. Ideally, at the bottom you want winds out of the SE at the surface and veering around to the west or NW at the top. Also look at the right with all the numbers. You will see a couple that end in CIN. That's convective inhibition, or a cap. Anything over 150 is a strong cap. 250 like you see here would take a nuke to break.

If you're interested or just extremely bored, go our storm chasing team YouTube page (NMSCAS) and search for my video series and find video 3. Thats the one that breaks down several of the severe parameters and what to look for on these soundings. Hell, give all five of them a listen to if you like. Videos 3-5 are probably the best.

[parabrave]

Thanks dude/

[DownwardDawg]

Y'all stay safe!! CC especially you be!
Headed back to Tennessee.

[Commercecomet24]

Y'all stay safe!! CC especially you be!
Headed back to Tennessee.

Thanks man! Safe travels!

[defiantdog]

How slow this thing seems to be moving, it has to go linear by the time it hits central MS.

[starkvegasdawg]

How slow this thing seems to be moving, it has to go linear by the time it hits central MS.

It will be linear before it ever crosses the river. But as we hit peak daytime heating there's a chance some discrete or semi discrete cells form out ahead. If they do they stand a better than average chance of producing a tornado and producing one that might be on up the food chain.

[defiantdog]

Texas is getting hammered today.

[OLJWales]

Nader Warning now here in Fort Worth.

[Commercecomet24]

Nader Warning now here in Fort Worth.

Stay safe!

[DawgFan85]

Well the ABC national news must think it will be bad here in central Mississippi tomorrow. With all that is going on in the world these days it was their lead story tonight.
The storm in Texas and a tornado hitting a school and then they had their weather girl Ginger Zee who was televising from Jackson, MS. Hope she had some security!

[OLJWales]

Stay safe!

Thanks Commerce. Sirens were going off about 10 minutes ago with some pea sized hail. Hope nobody hurt but I hafta admit there's some beauty to that green tint in the sky.

[starkvegasdawg]

Here's the latest from Jackson NWS:

The combination of instability and shear will
support supercells along and ahead of the front, curved hodographs
(strong speed and directional shear) at least initially supporting
discrete supercells as a storm mode. Strong southerly component to
flow aloft may support an increasingly linear storm mode as the
event progresses, with a focus for severe weather at that point
following any bowing segments along established QLCS structures.
Effective storm-relative helicity in exceedance of 300-400 m2/s2
will support quick intensification of rotation in storms, and
strong to significant tornadoes could occur from these storms. In
addition to tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
possible with severe storms tomorrow.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks Commerce. Sirens were going off about 10 minutes ago with some pea sized hail. Hope nobody hurt but I hafta admit there's some beauty to that green tint in the sky.

You're welcome, stay safe! Looks like we'll be ducking for cover over here tomorrow!

[OLJWales]

You're welcome, stay safe! Looks like we'll be ducking for cover over here tomorrow!

You too and all my home STATE Bulldog Brethren and my 81 yr old Mom in Jacktown. Stay safe I'll be checkin in on yall and the ED Meteorologist Team.

[OLJWales]

Checking out a mighty purty rainbow rat now.

[starkvegasdawg]

Since this post is getting long, after the midnight update I'll start a new thread. I'll be chasing so once I hit the road I probably won't be on here very much, if at all. Kind of need to concentrate on what I'm doing. I've driven into three tornadoes chasing and the family would prefer I not make it number four any time soon. Live stream will be up tomorrow so in the off chance any of y'all are a Patreon supporter at the $5/month level you'll be able to see what I see. If not ans you hear a report of a gray Dodge Ram pulling a wizard of oz you can realize I made #4 yesterday after all.

[Commercecomet24]

Since this post is getting long, after the midnight update I'll start a new thread. I'll be chasing so once I hit the road I probably won't be on here very much, if at all. Kind of need to concentrate on what I'm doing. I've driven into three tornadoes chasing and the family would prefer I not make it number four any time soon. Live stream will be up tomorrow so in the off chance any of y'all are a Patreon supporter at the $5/month level you'll be able to see what I see. If not ans you hear a report of a gray Dodge Ram pulling a wizard of oz you can realize I made #4 yesterday after all.

Thanks for all you do! Stay safe! If you're down this way and need help just holler!

[StarkVegasSteve]

Pretty bad stuff just rolled through here in Plano. Skies got green and it was eerily quiet.

[starkvegasdawg]

Pretty bad stuff just rolled through here in Plano. Skies got green and it was eerily quiet.

College Station has a nasty storm headed for it.

[starkvegasdawg]

The latest HRRR run has chosen violence I see.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

College Station has a nasty storm headed for it.

Watching a live stream now and it's just south west of college station. Where is the majority of the campus located?

[State82]

Stay safe, starkvegasdawg! Thanks again for all you do here. It is greatly appreciated.

[starkvegasdawg]

Watching a live stream now and it's just south west of college station. Where is the majority of the campus located?

Not sure to be honest.

[Commercecomet24]

From what I can tell it looks like its gonna be a close call for the university.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

I may have missed it earlier in the thread but what kind of time frame are we looking at tomorrow for this weather coming in ?

[Noxdog]

The latest HRRR run has chosen violence I see.

Please define ?violence?.

[starkvegasdawg]

I may have missed it earlier in the thread but what kind of time frame are we looking at tomorrow for this weather coming in ?

Storms could start crossing river by 7:00-8:00am and be in east MS by 3:00pm. The HRRR is continuing to show very dangerous supercells along the Highway 82 corridor. I'm now expecting the moderate risk area to be moved and/or expanded to take this into account. Find out in two hours.

[parabrave]

These are a couple of forecast area of fellow posters who I know the area of which they live. TUSK CC and the University. Thanks to Vdog for reminding me how to read the dam things. These are off the FV3 HiRes mode;

TUSK around 4PM https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032200_fh22_sounding_33.56N_87.70W.png

Starkville around 3 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032200_fh22_sounding_33.56N_87.70W.png

CC, Collins area same Time https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032200_fh22_sounding_33.56N_87.70W.png

[defiantdog]

These are a couple of forecast area of fellow posters who I know the area of which they live. TUSK CC and the University. Thanks to Vdog for reminding me how to read the dam things. These are off the FV3 HiRes mode;

TUSK around 4PM https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032200_fh22_sounding_33.56N_87.70W.png

Starkville around 3 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032200_fh22_sounding_33.56N_87.70W.png

CC, Collins area same Time https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/fv3-hires_2022032200_fh22_sounding_33.56N_87.70W.png
It would be the storm of all storms if it keeps this intensity through starkville. South central MS looks to be the hotspot for supercells tomorrow. All areas will be prime for sure.

[defiantdog]

https://imgur.com/a/wNLxu8F

[Dawg_Lover]

Article with info and photos of prolific storm and tornado damage across Texas today, plus Oklahoma, I believe.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10637727/amp/Hurricane-force-winds-tornadoes-forecast-Texas.html

[defiantdog]

The moderate risk basically covers everything from Jackson to the coast now.

[parabrave]

From what I can tell it looks like its gonna be a close call for the university.

Hey CC check your inbox.

[DownwardDawg]

Y'all in the wrong thread. Started a new thread specifically for today!!