Next severe threat looming?

[starkvegasdawg]

Starting to get some interesting signals for next Thursday. It is definitely looking likely a potent storm system moves through, but not sure how far north the unstable air will make it. Last couple runs the GFS is keeping the unstable air basically confined south of I-20 and west of 55, but this far out that could change dramatically. A strong high pressure is expected to develop in the Atlantic around Bermuda and the clockwise flow will be bringing moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Just how much and how far north remains to be seen. Still way too early to even start talking about what types of severe weather and how strong and widespread. Just keep in the back of your head could be some rough weather somewhere in the state late next week.

[Saltydog]

Are we talking potential severe thunderstorm type weather or wintry weather? We got a baseball series to play next weekend.......It's almost been exactly one year to the date that the ice storm hit North MS last year.....

[starkvegasdawg]

Severe thunderstorm type.

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC has now issued a severe threat for next Thursday. They don't often issue these 7 days out.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FLTzPbEX0AAvajs?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Ranchdawg]

I follow Mike?s Weather page on twitter and his web site. Have for years. Best during Hurricane season but he also keeps up other storm events.

[Bodawg]

There's a meteorologist on youtube that goes by RyanHall Yall. State grad who gives a very good synopsis almost daily. He's calling for severe potential too.

[DownwardDawg]

Bump

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC is maintaining the slight risk over almost the entire state. Things looks to be shaping up to be a classic low CAPE/high shear system. There will be wind shear numbers off the charts, but very little instability. This is a somewhat common type set up for winter systems. Storms look to move across the river Thursday morning and exit the state late afternoon. Main threats look to be straight line winds and tornadoes. The latest runs of the euro and NAM3K showing a broken line of discrete to semi-discrete supercells. If that ends up being the case then the tornado threat will be a little higher than if they merge into a line. As of right now I'm not expecting this to be an outbreak or high end event, but there could be several severe thunderstorm warnings and a few tornado warnings. My thinking now is best tornado threat will be east of I-55 when the storms encounter peak afternoon heating to maximize instability. If, big if, instability comes in higher than forecast then this could be a bigger event. Right now I could see our threat level possibly increased to enhanced but certainly nothing higher.

I'm about 95% decided I will be chasing. My storm deprivation syndrome is maxing out so I need to see some dark clouds and lightning strikes. I'm starting to develop Forest Whitaker eye over not seeing any storms.

[starkvegasdawg]

Reading the Jackson NWS forecast discussion and they made mention of some of the short range models like the HRRR slowing the system down. If that happens that pushes the timing of the system moving through during peak heating and also allows time for a better moisture return. This means the severe threat and magnitude would increase from current thinking. I would not be surprised to see an upgrade to an enhanced threat in the next SPC update tonight.

[parabrave]

SPC is maintaining the slight risk over almost the entire state. Things looks to be shaping up to be a classic low CAPE/high shear system. There will be wind shear numbers off the charts, but very little instability. This is a somewhat common type set up for winter systems. Storms look to move across the river Thursday morning and exit the state late afternoon. Main threats look to be straight line winds and tornadoes. The latest runs of the euro and NAM3K showing a broken line of discrete to semi-discrete supercells. If that ends up being the case then the tornado threat will be a little higher than if they merge into a line. As of right now I'm not expecting this to be an outbreak or high end event, but there could be several severe thunderstorm warnings and a few tornado warnings. My thinking now is best tornado threat will be east of I-55 when the storms encounter peak afternoon heating to maximize instability. If, big if, instability comes in higher than forecast then this could be a bigger event. Right now I could see our threat level possibly increased to enhanced but certainly nothing higher.

I'm about 95% decided I will be chasing. My storm deprivation syndrome is maxing out so I need to see some dark clouds and lightning strikes. I'm starting to develop Forest Whitaker eye over not seeing any storms.

Head over to Little Rock. There you can head to Piggieland or Memphis area when the bad shi7 hits either of these places