starkvegasdawg
02-03-2022, 01:34 AM
While the ice and snow is getting all the attention for tomorrow, a severe threat is developing for parts of south and eastern MS into AL. The SPC has highlighted a slight risk for severe storms from McComb up to near Birmingham. Damaging winds and at least a couple of tornadoes look to be possible. This is a conditional threat tomorrow. Wind shear and helicity look to be a n abundance as forecast soundings are showing large curved hodographs. The first question mark is how much instability can the system generate in the warm sector. Forecast CAPE is between 250-1,000. If it hits the upper end then instability no longer becomes a limiting factor. The second question mark is storm mode. There should be a squall line form which will contain the damaging wind threat and perhaps a couple of spin up tornadoes. But if enough instability can form out ahead of it then there's a chance to get some discrete supercells to become surface based. If that happens in the forecast wind fields, they stand a decent chance of producing a tornado. One factor working in the storm system's favor is the storm timing looks to coincide with peak daytime heating of the early to mid afternoon. So keep an eye out if you live in the slight risk area tomorrow afternoon as things may get bumpy.