Path to the NCAA Tournament

[KOdawg1]

We're currently 13-7, 4-3 in the league. 11-7 in conference play should have us safely in. 10-8 would be iffy. Probably would have to win a few in the SECT. 9-9, and we're NIT bound. So we really need to go 7-4 in the last 11 games.

Remaining games with BPI chance to win and opponent's NET:

South Carolina- 84%, NET 97

@ Arkansas- 38%, NET 48

#22 Tennessee- 40%, NET 13

@ 25 LSU- 15%, NET 14

@ Alabama - 28%, NET 22

Mizzou - 94%, NET 157

@ Mizzou - 82%, NET 157

@ South Carolina - 58%, NET 97

@ Vandy - 83%, NET 91

Auburn - 41%, NET 5

@ A&M 47%, NET 65

6 wins with these remaining games and we might get in. 7 and we're in. It's up to Howland to get it done. Not a lot of margin for error.

[msstate7]

We desperately need tolu

[KOdawg1]

We desperately need tolu

They're hoping he'll be back by this weekend. Next week vs. Tennessee at the latest.

[KOdawg1]

So South Carolina x2, Mizzou x2, and Vandy gives us 5 wins. Can't slip up in any of these games.

Then we need 2 out of @Arky, Tenn, @LSU, @Bama, Auburn, and @A&M. Not easy, but doable.

[OLJWales]

I reckon 10-8 would be good enough to make it in other conferences, no? Whutch yall think the hoops conference strength looks like this go 'round?

[KOdawg1]

I reckon 10-8 would be good enough to make it in other conferences, no? Whutch yall think the hoops conference strength looks like this go 'round?

The SEC is really good this year.

10-8 may be good enough, but it'll depend on how it all shakes how with Q1 wins and Q 3-4 losses. I'd rather not leave it to chance.

[OLJWales]

The SEC is really good this year.

10-8 may be good enough, but it'll depend on how it all shakes how with Q1 wins and Q 3-4 losses. I'd rather not leave it to chance.

Was wondering if any other conferences would have a leg up on the SEC.

[klong-dog]

And probably need an sec tourney win on the resume if 10-8

[Commercecomet24]

I would love for us to go 7-4 over the next 11 but I see us going 6-5 at best but more likely 5-6. Tough row to hoe. Hopefully Tolu gets back soon and helps us get those 7 wins.

[Coach34]

10-8 with a win over @Arky, Tenn, @LSU, @Bama, Auburn, and @A&M most likely gets us in. Especially if we win 1 in the SEC Tourney.

It comes down to winning a big game. This team has to pull off a good win to make it happen. Get 2 great shots at home with Tenn and Auburn. Or we have to pull off road win somewhere we shouldnt.

Bares repeating- "Just Win Baby"

[EdwardDrayton]

We desperately need tolu

Desperately. Or the odds of going 7-4 the rest of the way become very long.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Tolu is the key to everything. Need him back this Saturday. Bud Walton is a tough place to win no matter how good/bad Arkansas is and they are playing well right now. Win the next 3 and you give yourself a fighting chance.

[Commercecomet24]

Tolu is the key to everything. Need him back this Saturday. Bud Walton is a tough place to win no matter how good/bad Arkansas is and they are playing well right now. Win the next 3 and you give yourself a fighting chance.

We are a totally different team with Tolu. He's critical if we're gonna make a run.

[sleepy dawg]

I reckon 10-8 would be good enough to make it in other conferences, no? Whutch yall think the hoops conference strength looks like this go 'round?

SEC is 3rd ranked conference based on NET rankings and RPI, which is good for us. Only Big12 and Big10 rank higher.

[msstate7]

Still gotta wonder when tolu returns is he 100%, 80%, 60%... if he isnt the normal pogo stick, well, let's just hope he is

[RougeDawg]

We are a totally different team with Tolu. He's critical if we're gonna make a run.

Brings me back to an annual post about basketball players. Do these guys who are seemingly always out, did they play football in high school? Anthony Davis is a prime example of sitting games unless he is absolutely 100% when him playing at 80-90% would greatly help his team. Tolu at 80-90% would dramatically change our team. Playing football helps athletes truly know if they are injured or simply sore and can play through it until 100%.

I understand that the high school football and basketball seasons overlap, but damn AD sure missed a lot of games for Pelicants with minor hand and finger soreness.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Simple answer, stop losing games. Why even allow ourselves to be placed on the bubble? Until our team starts to fight, and actually wins those fights, making the tourney doesn't matter. Getting smashed by TT pretty much showed us where we stack up. And boys, we are lacking.

[PGHBulldogBG]

We might be able to beat South Carolina, Missouri and Vandy without Tolu, but I don?t see us beating anyone else. I think Tolu playing if he is fully healthy gives us the chance to pull off @ark, UT, @aTm and possibly two of those. @LSU, @Bama and Auburn are just 3 games I worry might be closer to TTU without Tolu and with him probably closer games but still a bit much for us to handle. I think we finish anywhere between 9-9 and 11-7. I say 11-7 if Tolu is back for Ark and UT but 9-9 if he isn?t.

[Johnson85]

I just don't see it. There's no reason for us not to win 6, but there's no reason for us to be in a position where we need to win 6 at this point. With our tendency to just not show up on the road, we pretty much have to win either against UT or Auburn at home. Then we have to avoid screwing the pooch v. USCe, v.Mizzou, @Mizzou or @Vandy. The we'd just need to get a win on the road against USCe or A&M. It seems unrealistic at this point to hope that we start playing consistently and get to 7-4.

[msstate7]

What a difference a week makes? After beating OM soundly and taking Kentucky to OT, most everyone felt good. Then we got trounced by TT, and now most everyone has lost all confidence.

[Tater]

According to this site, we've moved up in favor and can safely move our target to 20 wins and we're in. 19 is bubble.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/mississippi-state-bulldogs/bracketology

(tonight not accounted for as of posting)

So six more wins. A win vs. Ark would go a long way.

[Pancho]

Tolu playing @ Ark?

[msstate7]

According to this site, we've moved up in favor and can safely move our target to 20 wins and we're in. 19 is bubble.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/mississippi-state-bulldogs/bracketology

(tonight not accounted for as of posting)

So six more wins. A win vs. Ark would go a long way.

1 of the next 2 is a reasonable goal, and it would really boost the resume

[PGHBulldogBG]

Does that 20 wins include a first round SEC tournament win? Because if that?s the case I think we can get 20. If not it?s going to be tough and we would probably need to win the 2nd round game which will be a challenge, especially if we are the 7 seed and have to play Auburn or Kentucky

[Johnson85]

What a difference a week makes? After beating OM soundly and taking Kentucky to OT, most everyone felt good. Then we got trounced by TT, and now most everyone has lost all confidence.

Which is wild to me, because not showing up ready to play for TT was what probably should have been expected. We had shown flashes of turning the corner. It was time for another moral victory before crashing or for us to crash. With us having a winnable game following TT, crashing and burning made sense.