Weather dawgs

[CaptainObvious]

Working in Horn Lake this week. How strong is this Winter Storm coming in Wednesday night/Thursday supposed to be?

[starkvegasdawg]

As of right now probably not too substantial precip wise. Looking like a little freezing rain and maybe some sleet. Worst looks to be up north of I-40. All going to depend on how much moisture is left after the cold air starts moving in. If it comes in faster than current thinking then could be looking at a more substantial event.

[parabrave]

GFS has Friday to be a stormy day for the entire state,

[Matt3467]

How accurate is the GFS model? We live in Little Rock and local news have been everywhere on this but GFS is showing over a foot of snow and sleet in our area.

[starkvegasdawg]

How accurate is the GFS model? We live in Little Rock and local news have been everywhere on this but GFS is showing over a foot of snow and sleet in our area.

They all have their good days and bad days. Typically, for the long range models I prefer the euro and then when we get almost to the event I go with the HRRR.

[TNDawg35]

They all have their good days and bad days. Typically, for the long range models I prefer the euro and then when we get almost to the event I go with the HRRR.

I have been watching the models and the 2 I saw showed 1.62 in ice and 1 inch of ice for my area (Just N of Shelby Co) Isn’t that like ice storm crippling ice?

[starkvegasdawg]

I have been watching the models and the 2 I saw showed 1.62 in ice and 1 inch of ice for my area (Just N of Shelby Co) Isn’t that like ice storm crippling ice?

You start seeing power outages at around .75" of ice. When you start getting over an inch you are looking at a crippling storm. 1.5"+ and you're looking at prolonged widespread power outages.

[OLJWales]

Weather.com has a high of 69 and low 22 Wednesday here in Fort Worth. Wintry Precip of an inch predicted from Wednesday night and all day Thru Thursday. I've got a feeling we're gonna get more than 1 inch. Any you gurus got anything on Fort Worth?

[parabrave]

Weather.com has a high of 69 and low 22 Wednesday here in Fort Worth. Wintry Precip of an inch predicted from Wednesday night and all day Thru Thursday. I've got a feeling we're gonna get more than 1 inch. Any you gurus got anything on Fort Worth?

Has the DFW area had their annual paralyzing Ice storm yet? I know they get one every year but usually round late Dec early Jan/

[OLJWales]

Has the DFW area had their annual paralyzing Ice storm yet? I know they get one every year but usually round late Dec early Jan/

This will our first this year. Damn close to anniversary of last year.

[Dawg_Lover]

This will our first this year. Damn close to anniversary of last year.

Oh No, hoping you do not have a repeat this year! WREG, out of Memphis, tonight said my area of Desoto County, MS, could see between .3 & .6 inches Thursday morning, which will be quite enough, thank you very much. And, he said he thought north of I-40 would get the snow. I am just hoping most of the rain is past us before temps drop too much.

[TNDawg35]

As of the models I just looked at, it is showing trending further S. GFS is showing Memphis getting 1.82 inches of ice. NAM is showing 1.32. That’s bad for us W TN people’s…

[DownwardDawg]

As of the models I just looked at, it is showing trending further S. GFS is showing Memphis getting 1.82 inches of ice. NAM is showing 1.32. That’s bad for us W TN people’s…

I'm in West Nashville. Hoping it won't be bad here.

[starkvegasdawg]

As of the models I just looked at, it is showing trending further S. GFS is showing Memphis getting 1.82 inches of ice. NAM is showing 1.32. That’s bad for us W TN people’s…

The southward trend does look to be the case. Latest model runs for Memphis are showing anywhere from .5"-1.9" of ice. The low end of that range will be rather unpleasant. The upper end will be catastrophic. Most are keeping the heavy ice accumulations out of MS but a couple are bringing it into extreme NW MS. Fact is it's impossible or know where that corridor sets up now. Any slight deviation in the storm track will change who gets what. But if I lived in west TN, NE AR, and NW MS I would be preparing for this storm as if I would lose power for 3-5 days and impassable roads for a couple days. Basically anyone NW of a Monticello, AR to Batesville, MS, to Jackson, TN, line if I were guessing. Might not make it that far SE but I would want to be prepared just in case it did.

[starkvegasdawg]

One other thing I'll mention is a potential low end severe threat for central and south MS Thursday. If we can realize a little more instability it would be a classic high shear / low CAPE event. Wind profiles look to be textbook for severe weather but just not sure if the atmosphere will have enough juice to get them going. Just something to keep an eye on mainly for those south of I-20.

[OLJWales]

I'm a 59 yr old snow freak like Vegas is with Naders. I stay glued to Weather.com checking hourly temps and precip %`s. So far I've been right as the predictions have worsened as I was seeing too many temps 25 or less with precip %`s 95-100. Wed rain turning wintry after midnight then a full day and afternoon with a high of 23 with 95-100 % precip. Can't wait to have fun doing donuts in parking lots. Like Vegas, we don't wanna see people hurt but I cant help my childhood love for snow still is there. Cant wait to drive in it.

[TNDawg35]

Ok so maybe Starkvegas dawg can answer this. Watching Memphis news, they are telling us .01-.2. It seems like they are way underplaying this situation. Why does it always seem the news casters always underplay the situation…. All the models are should above 1in and a even 2….

[Matt3467]

There's just so much uncertainty with the models. In Little Rock at this time there's some showing just rain, a dusting to a few inches of snow/sleet/ice, and the GFS (which predicted the big snowstorm we had last year) is showing 20" of snow/sleet total.

[OLJWales]

There's just so much uncertainty with the models. In Little Rock at this time there's some showing just rain, a dusting to a few inches of snow/sleet/ice, and the GFS (which predicted the big snowstorm we had last year) is showing 20" of snow/sleet total.

Showing Just Rain in LR is retarded.

[ScoobaDawg]

I'm a 59 yr old snow freak like Vegas is with Naders. I stay glued to Weather.com checking hourly temps and precip %`s. So far I've been right as the predictions have worsened as I was seeing too many temps 25 or less with precip %`s 95-100. Wed rain turning wintry after midnight then a full day and afternoon with a high of 23 with 95-100 % precip. Can't wait to have fun doing donuts in parking lots. Like Vegas, we don't wanna see people hurt but I cant help my childhood love for snow still is there. Cant wait to drive in it.

Ughhhh i wouldn't advise that as... that little bit of snow (1-3")heading your way is going to have more than a .25" of ice underneath...
and weather.com would be the last source I ever check.

[ScoobaDawg]

There's just so much uncertainty with the models. In Little Rock at this time there's some showing just rain, a dusting to a few inches of snow/sleet/ice, and the GFS (which predicted the big snowstorm we had last year) is showing 20" of snow/sleet total.

That's the problem. The public data doesn't show the breakdown of snow/sleet/freezing rain like the pro version. Saying 20" of snow/sleet is worthless because snow is going to convert in these temperatures at 10:1 vs freezing rain being 1:1.
There won't be 20" of anything in LR...

[OLJWales]

Ughhhh i wouldn't advise that as... that little bit of snow (1-3")heading your way is going to have more than a .25" of ice underneath...
and weather.com would be the last source I ever check.

At least they ain't saying 20" in LR. and im gonna have a blast driving Thursday. Vacant parking lots and shit. Been doing it for decades; no wrecks. No U-Turns; just spinning 180's.

[Matt3467]

That's the problem. The public data doesn't show the breakdown of snow/sleet/freezing rain like the pro version. Saying 20" of snow/sleet is worthless because snow is going to convert in these temperatures at 10:1 vs freezing rain being 1:1.
There won't be 20" of anything in LR...

I don't think it'll all be rain either. Just shows how unpredictable weather is. If I'm remembering correctly the big storm we got here last Feb that dumped 18" was supposed to be more of an ice event.

[ScoobaDawg]

As I was saying... here are some breakdowns from the pro version of the 06 GFS . and no.. I can't provide any other views further east. they arent from me.

http://wxman57.com/images/TXRN2.png

http://wxman57.com/images/TXZR2.png

http://wxman57.com/images/TXIP2.png

http://wxman57.com/images/TXSN2.png

[Matt3467]

As I was saying... here are some breakdowns from the pro version of the 06 GFS . and no.. I can't provide any other views further east. they arent from me.

http://wxman57.com/images/TXRN2.png

http://wxman57.com/images/TXZR2.png

http://wxman57.com/images/TXIP2.png

http://wxman57.com/images/TXSN2.png

Wow! That's quite a difference. I'm pretty worried about that ice total. I've been needing some more fire wood....

[OLJWales]

As I was saying... here are some breakdowns from the pro version of the 06 GFS . and no.. I can't provide any other views further east. they arent from me.

http://wxman57.com/images/TXRN2.png

http://wxman57.com/images/TXZR2.png

http://wxman57.com/images/TXIP2.png

http://wxman57.com/images/TXSN2.png

I prefer weather.com's hourly stuff than model stuff. Based on my experience, I'm predicting 1.75" of snow atop the preceding ice. Can I bet $1.75K V-Cash on that Scooba? I musta woke up on the degenerate side of the bed.

[DownwardDawg]

I'm a 59 yr old snow freak like Vegas is with Naders. I stay glued to Weather.com checking hourly temps and precip %`s. So far I've been right as the predictions have worsened as I was seeing too many temps 25 or less with precip %`s 95-100. Wed rain turning wintry after midnight then a full day and afternoon with a high of 23 with 95-100 % precip. Can't wait to have fun doing donuts in parking lots. Like Vegas, we don't wanna see people hurt but I cant help my childhood love for snow still is there. Cant wait to drive in it.

I'm with you man! It has snowed at least once every week since Christmas here. Some weren't forecast at all and were just little showers but still cool. Last week one day it lightly snowed all day and there was a 0% chance.

[starkvegasdawg]

Ok so maybe Starkvegas dawg can answer this. Watching Memphis news, they are telling us .01-.2. It seems like they are way underplaying this situation. Why does it always seem the news casters always underplay the situation…. All the models are should above 1in and a even 2….

There's more models than I can count and a lot of those models are made up of ensemble models. The euro alone has 50 ensemble models and the gfs 30. Each one is tweaked slightly to try to capture every possibility. It's up to each met to decide which ones are most likely to be accurate. There is also the NWS blend of models which is just what it sounds like. It takes into accounts those showing Armageddon levels of precip and those that say its going to be sunny. It blends those into one map and since it takes all of them into account the results are in the middle. In this case more models are showing very light accumulations instead of a massive ice storm so it's showing lighter totals. And odds are that's what most people will get but there will be some isolated heavy precip bands that will unleash hell on isolated areas. Your area may only get 0.1" of ice and be ok but 5 miles away a band set up and they got 2" of ice and it looks like a war zone.

[Dak Holliday]

I?m driving home from St Louis tomorrow. Probably pulling out about 10. How?s that looking? They canceled tomorrow?s flights earlier today.

[starkvegasdawg]

I?m driving home from St Louis tomorrow. Probably pulling out about 10. How?s that looking? They canceled tomorrow?s flights earlier today.

Going to be right in the middle of it.

[TNDawg35]

They have upgraded us(Tipton co) to an Ice Storm Warning. The grocery store was a madhouse yest…

[Dawg_Lover]

There's more models than I can count and a lot of those models are made up of ensemble models. The euro alone has 50 ensemble models and the gfs 30. Each one is tweaked slightly to try to capture every possibility. It's up to each met to decide which ones are most likely to be accurate. There is also the NWS blend of models which is just what it sounds like. It takes into accounts those showing Armageddon levels of precip and those that say its going to be sunny. It blends those into one map and since it takes all of them into account the results are in the middle. In this case more models are showing very light accumulations instead of a massive ice storm so it's showing lighter totals. And odds are that's what most people will get but there will be some isolated heavy precip bands that will unleash hell on isolated areas. Your area may only get 0.1" of ice and be ok but 5 miles away a band set up and they got 2" of ice and it looks like a war zone.

This post was very informative. At 4am, my weather radio alerted that my county, Desoto, plus Tunica, were now included in the ice storm warning. Still hoping for minimal impact. And, reading your previous post above gave me even more hope. Regardless, I am well prepared.

Meanwhile, I am curious about your opinion regarding the reliability of models from NCAR, versus others, such as NWS? And thanks, in advance.

[starkvegasdawg]

This post was very informative. At 4am, my weather radio alerted that my county, Desoto, plus Tunica, were now included in the ice storm warning. Still hoping for minimal impact. And, reading your previous post above gave me even more hope. Regardless, I am well prepared.

Meanwhile, I am curious about your opinion regarding the reliability of models from NCAR, versus others, such as NWS? And thanks, in advance.

I have had zero interaction with the NCAR models so sadly I can't voice an opinion one way or the other.

[Dawg_Lover]

I have had zero interaction with the NCAR models so sadly I can't voice an opinion one way or the other.

Thanks. Do you have any more current thoughts regarding ice accumulation in the Desoto county area?

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks. Do you have any more current thoughts regarding ice accumulation in the Desoto county area?

I'm thinking 1/2" of ice is going to be a safe bet.

[Dawg_Lover]

I'm thinking 1/2" of ice is going to be a safe bet.


Thank you, SVD. I am always grateful for the time & knowledge you, and the others on ED, selflessly give to keep the rest of us informed.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thank you, SVD. I am always grateful for the time & knowledge you, and the others on ED, selflessly give to keep the rest of us informed.

You're welcome. But I'm far from knowledgeable. I'm just a crazy storm chaser that's tried to learn just enough not to get myself killed while out there. And considering I've dead centered 3 tornadoes while chasing I might need to learn some more.

[Dawg_Lover]

You're welcome. But I'm far from knowledgeable. I'm just a crazy storm chaser that's tried to learn just enough not to get myself killed while out there. And considering I've dead centered 3 tornadoes while chasing I might need to learn some more.

I am sorry, that should not be funny, but .... 😂.

[Commercecomet24]

SVD and all you Weather Dawgs on here provide us valuable information and it's greatly appreciated!

[OLJWales]

STATE Weather Dog threads are very cool.

I guess this Fort Worth Storm's one where cloud temps are warmer than the ground. Raining hard now at 33 with temps dropping about 1 per hour till low 20's. Saying not total snow till 28 or so around midnight. Heavy precip till 7 A.M.

[starkvegasdawg]

STATE Weather Dog threads are very cool.

I guess this Fort Worth Storm's one where cloud temps are warmer than the ground. Raining hard now at 33 with temps dropping about 1 per hour till low 20's. Saying not total snow till 28 or so around midnight. Heavy precip till 7 A.M.

I haven't looked at soundings for there but around Memphis there's a massive warm nose at about 5,000-8,000 feet. Goes from upper 20's at the surface to close to 40 in the warm nose. Then drops back below freezing. It's a classic ice storm set up where a shallow layer of arctic air is undercutting warm air.

[TNDawg35]

Temps already below freezing in my area. Local weathermen starting to show some concern finally instead of playing it off…

[TigerMomofaDawg]

We are Coasties and are completely unfamiliar with icy conditions. That said, our daughter (who is a student at State) is planning to drive to Memphis tomorrow for a SEEK retreat. Some fellow students are planning to ride with her. Do you folks think it would be safe to drive from Starkville to Memphis tomorrow and then back on Sunday, or should she just stay in Starkville? She has paid money to attend the retreat, but lost money is not my concern. Her safety is. My gut is telling me she should probably not go.

Thanks in advance for any information.

[parabrave]

We are Coasties and are completely unfamiliar with icy conditions. That said, our daughter (who is a student at State) is planning to drive to Memphis tomorrow for a SEEK retreat. Some fellow students are planning to ride with her. Do you folks think it would be safe to drive from Starkville to Memphis tomorrow and then back on Sunday, or should she just stay in Starkville? She has paid money to attend the retreat, but lost money is not my concern. Her safety is. My gut is telling me she should probably not go.

Thanks in advance for any information.

Probably not a good idea to go/ Weather will be gone but Icy roads will be around and Temps are forecast to stay below 30. Plus she can go to MDOT page and get an update on road conditions with camera views

[starkvegasdawg]

We are Coasties and are completely unfamiliar with icy conditions. That said, our daughter (who is a student at State) is planning to drive to Memphis tomorrow for a SEEK retreat. Some fellow students are planning to ride with her. Do you folks think it would be safe to drive from Starkville to Memphis tomorrow and then back on Sunday, or should she just stay in Starkville? She has paid money to attend the retreat, but lost money is not my concern. Her safety is. My gut is telling me she should probably not go.

Thanks in advance for any information.

Starting to get reports of icing in trees and hwy 51 between Memphis and hernando has been closed due to trees and limbs on the road. If they're leaving from msu then I'm guessing either going to Tupelo and over or Winona and up. Current forecasts showing most of those travel corridors should remain ice free until you get within 50 miles or so of Memphis. MDOT and the highway patrol will be able to give updates on road conditions in the morning. Biggest concern then will probably be bridges and some secondary roads. Also lots of areas in Memphis may be without power. If it were my child, right now I'd probably be pretty hesitant to let her go...especially with zero experience driving on ice which can be almost impossible. I'd just take a wait and see attitude and see what conditions are like tomorrow morning and decide then. It could be the retreat is cancelled.

[Dawg_Lover]

I live about dead center of Desoto county, and it is getting bad. It is pouring down out there, about 32 or 33 degrees, and ice is forming on the trees. My home is in what was an old pecan grove. There is a 60 to 70 year old pecan tree over each end of my house. They are huge. I?ve not been able to afford to cut them down. Just hoping & praying my roof, along with everyone elses, is spared.

[TigerMomofaDawg]

Thanks for the advice. I definitely appreciate it.

[parabrave]

I live about dead center of Desoto county, and it is getting bad. It is pouring down out there, about 32 or 33 degrees, and ice is forming on the trees. My home is in what was an old pecan grove. There is a 60 to 70 year old pecan tree over each end of my house. They are huge. I?ve not been able to afford to cut them down. Just hoping & praying my roof, along with everyone elses, is spared.

Are they still producing?

[OLJWales]

23 and snowing its ass off in Fort Worth till noon. Temps remaining below freezing till Saturday.

[Dawg_Lover]

Are they still producing?


No, unfortunately not. I have had one really good year, and maybe barely fair years, in the 22 years I have been here. Just badly diseased.

[Dawg_Lover]

Meant to say 2 fair years ....

[parabrave]

I live about dead center of Desoto county, and it is getting bad. It is pouring down out there, about 32 or 33 degrees, and ice is forming on the trees. My home is in what was an old pecan grove. There is a 60 to 70 year old pecan tree over each end of my house. They are huge. I?ve not been able to afford to cut them down. Just hoping & praying my roof, along with everyone elses, is spared.

HWY 51 closed in desoto cty due to fallen Trees blocking the road/

[parabrave]

23 and snowing its ass off in Fort Worth till noon. Temps remaining below freezing till Saturday.

Just saw some Road cameras on 30 in Arlington area, all iceed over.

[Dawg_Lover]

If you are interested in power outage maps, here are two links, for the area.

MLGW - Memphis / Shelby County area
https://outagemap.mlgw.org/OutageSummary.php

Entergy - NW MS power source
https://www.etrviewoutage.com/map?state=MS&_ga=2.162469948.1874856652.1643887912-1562496525.1643887912

[Dawg_Lover]

HWY 51 closed in desoto cty due to fallen Trees blocking the road/

Not surprised at all. Would not want to travel that road, on any bad weather day. It is just two lanes and narrow.

[Dawg_Lover]

Power just blinked off, back on, & off again. Rats. Oh well. Was to be expected.

[OLJWales]

Just saw some Road cameras on 30 in Arlington area, all iceed over.

Ice being covered with powder snow right now. I had to hold a batch a couple minutes to make a snowball. Warming up my Rav 4 so I can do some playing around. Beautiful.

[Dawg_Lover]

Power back on after only 1 hour! Yoo-hoo!! Met the Entergy lineman last week who works my area. Very nice young man named Mark, I think. Maybe he took pity on a little old 👵 lady. White hair 👩*🦳 just may have its advantages after all. No, only kidding, I was just lucky. Reminds me to be thankful for all those still providing all types of needed service no matter the weather conditions.

FYI: Memphis just said they now have 78% without power.