The Thing Everyone Needs to Understand About the Transfer Portal Era

[ShotgunDawg]

Transfers are more valuable than HS recruits because they can't transfer again.

Only sign HS players that have a chance to make your two deep & then try to find transfers with 3-4 years of eligibility left so you can develop players.

That's the new era of roster building. Stinks for HS recruits, but that's the rules

[Fader21]

They are more valuable because most teams have already done prospect reports on these players because of their first time being recruited. They also can call up their buddies at other institutions and get a more "realistic opinion" on the student-athlete than from a HS coach that sometimes might not be 100% truthful.

The real truth is it won't hurt your High 3 star and up recruits. Colleges will still sign these players. The worst people it hurts is your JUCO route players that are fully qualified that might be late developers.

[smootness]

The vast majority of players still don't transfer. HS recruits have plenty of value.

[Johnson85]

The vast majority of players still don't transfer. HS recruits have plenty of value.

I think it's going to be a few years before people figure out what the optimal balance is. And it's going to be different for different types of colleges. I think the blue bloods still need to go heavy on high school recruits with a few spots open to back fill holes with players from other blue bloods that are good but just have a crowded position. Not sure how often this is going to be anything other than QB.

I think schools like Mississippi state are going to need to keep the most spots open for transfers. We will be a desirable landing spot for highly rated recruits that get lost in the shuffle at blue bloods and for bigtime G5 players that want to prove they can play at a higher level. But even then, you can't go too heavy because those transfers may not materialize. As more players realize transferring isn't a panacea, there might be a meaningful drop in quality transfers. I am guessing the right mix for MSU (assuming the start enforcing the 25 scholly limit again soon) will be something like 18 high school recruits and 7 transfers. Really going to be hard to take a lot of chances on JUCO players if they have an option to transfer out, but what JUCOs are available may impact that mix a little.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Transfers are more valuable than HS recruits because they can't transfer again.

Only sign HS players that have a chance to make your two deep & then try to find transfers with 3-4 years of eligibility left so you can develop players.

That's the new era of roster building. Stinks for HS recruits, but that's the rules

I would love to see a study done showing how well these kids do and especially the ones that leave multiple times

[Cooterpoot]

Yeah, I'll pass on those guys that don't play (actually get on the field) at a P5 program. Give me HS guys over them unless we're desperate for depth.

[Dak Holliday]

Yeah, I'll pass on those guys that don't play (actually get on the field) at a P5 program. Give me HS guys over them unless we're desperate for depth.

You will pass on a 4 star that hadn?t gotten in the top 2 at Bama, UGA, OSU, etc but has spent a yr with elite coaches, trainers, practices with 4 yrs left that is secure over a 3star right out of HS that if he turns out to be a gem can transfer to Bama, UGA, OSU, etc? It?s all subjective. There?s definitely upside to the portal that we need to embrace.

[confucius say]

Transfers are more valuable than HS recruits because they can't transfer again.

Only sign HS players that have a chance to make your two deep & then try to find transfers with 3-4 years of eligibility left so you can develop players.

That's the new era of roster building. Stinks for HS recruits, but that's the rules

That's risky considering less than 15% of players enter the portal. You are limiting your available targets.

Also, you are completely dependent on the portal every year. If there is a year without a big portal selection you are screwed bc you have nothing but freshmen and have not developed any HS talent.

I still think the right balance is about 18-20 HS kids and 5-7 portal guys, give or take.

[Johnson85]

Yeah, I'll pass on those guys that don't play (actually get on the field) at a P5 program. Give me HS guys over them unless we're desperate for depth.

I feel like if you have a Junior coming from a Blue blood program that is sitting behind a likely draft pick, that is as good or better roll of the dice than most JUCOs. If they're at a position of need, I think that will normally be a no brainer for us. Even better if they decide with three years of eligibility that they're tired of sitting the bench.

[HoopsDawg]

That's risky considering less than 15% of players enter the portal. You are limiting your available targets.

Also, you are completely dependent on the portal every year. If there is a year without a big portal selection you are screwed bc you have nothing but freshmen and have not developed any HS talent.

I still think the right balance is about 18-20 HS kids and 5-7 portal guys, give or take.

Yeah, 18 and 7 seems about right to me.

[Dak Holliday]

Yeah, 18 and 7 seems about right to me.

I?m inclined to agree with you. That?s a good mix

[Jack Lambert]

The portal can save your ass if you get in a bind.

[KOdawg1]

The portal can save your ass if you get in a bind.

It can also leave you in a mess.

It giveths and takeths away

[thf24]

Reminds me of something I was thinking about the other day along these lines, from the player's perspective - when you decide where you're going to transfer, you'd better make damn sure that's where you want to be for the rest of your undergraduate FBS career, and that you're doing it for the right reasons. If you jump and find yourself in a worse situation, you're not going to have a prayer at getting an offer while having to sit a year next to the several hundred other guys at your position who don't.

[coachnorm]

When perceiving the portal and grasping who is talking to who, take this into account. Players and fellow students communicate on social media. Players are getting together, possibly at parties or Team Viewer, and brainstorming who should go to where ever. Due to social media portal strategies are evolving in many methods.

The reason why I am bringing this to the ED members is I have seen this first hand when my players have shown this type of social media chatter to me personally. High school football players have bragged that they are going to determine future championships by getting together personally. Players upon their own motions are strategizing who they are going to influence to play together with. Parents might even find themselves and discuss matters over a beer or two.

Take notice of the two scenarios that I have introduced and notice that a coach was not mentioned. This type of team building is currently happening in major urban high school football without meaningful input from coaches and boosters. Rural geography can slow this down if there are only one or two football programs in an immediate area. Now a day even rural high school players get phone numbers and email addresses while attending college and NFL camps that they commute to. When players that have played this game in high school football get to college it is just a continuation of past behavior.

College football players from different teams do social media between themselves. If a player has a personal friend unhappy at his current team, there will be networking done to support a friend. To many a college football team is a stopover to the pros and nothing else.

When I was coaching at Southwestern JUCO in 2007 there were players from rival Grossmont JUCO in my residential area. There were six Grossmont players, from the Southeast, crammed into a two bedroom apartment nearby. Whenever I would shop at Costco, I would buy them bulk sausages or something similar and give them something to eat. Sometimes they would get on each other’s nerves and text me if they could stop by to clear their heads. Sometimes they needed to get onto the internet to send in class assignments.

One day Jimmy Pinkney, from Tallahassee, a Grossmont JUCO player texted me and asked if he could bring a new arrival at Grossmont over. Jimmy brought over L.J. Brown from Miami who just finished 4 years in the Navy. L.J. Brown had a conflict with the Grossmont defensive line coach. After Jimmy brought L.J. over, I notified my head coach of my contact. L.J. just enrolled at Grossmont JUCO but had not been formally rostered therefore the Southwestern head coach met with L.J. at his office.

In short Grossmont JUCO players rallied for L.J. Brown which caused a relationship with another coach which caused L.J. to leave Grossmont JUCO and play for its rival Southwestern. BTW L.J. Brown got a scholarship to UTEP. Strangely, both Grossmont and Southwestern football players partied together the evening of the Grossmont vs Southwestern game in 2007? I wonder how many “Portal Parties” are happening, without coaches or boosters, currently and will happen in the future. Also, I wonder how may NIL deals will occur without coaches or boosters involved. Thought I would share something with fellow Elitedoggers. BTW, wasn’t Aaron Rodgers a JUCO guy?

[R2Dawg]

Yeah, I'll pass on those guys that don't play (actually get on the field) at a P5 program. Give me HS guys over them unless we're desperate for depth.

There are some diamonds to find but as a whole I tend to agree. Portal only to meet needs or holes. Kinda like JUCO but maybe to a lesser degree even. We still need to get the best JUCOs IMHO.

[bulldawg28]

The portal can save your ass if you get in a bind.

It saved Ole Miss last year!

[Catfish]

It saved Ole Miss last year!

And it might save them this year.

[ShotgunDawg]

The vast majority of players still don't transfer. HS recruits have plenty of value.

HS recruits can up & leave after 1 semester. It's hard to develop & coach them correctly. You can't really de-recruit them like a coaching staff needs to be able to do

[ShotgunDawg]

I would love to see a study done showing how well these kids do and especially the ones that leave multiple times

Agree. It will be interesting to see where things stand in a few years.

[ShotgunDawg]

That's risky considering less than 15% of players enter the portal. You are limiting your available targets.

Also, you are completely dependent on the portal every year. If there is a year without a big portal selection you are screwed bc you have nothing but freshmen and have not developed any HS talent.

I still think the right balance is about 18-20 HS kids and 5-7 portal guys, give or take.

I agree you should take HS impact guys, & maybe a few developmental guys that fully understand that they're a developmental guy that won't see the field for a few years, but you shouldn't reach. You should save as many scholarships as possible for the portal.

There are always going to be good G5 players looking to move up & we'll have a better idea which of those guys can play after they're in school for a year or two at a G5

[ShotgunDawg]

I feel like if you have a Junior coming from a Blue blood program that is sitting behind a likely draft pick, that is as good or better roll of the dice than most JUCOs. If they're at a position of need, I think that will normally be a no brainer for us. Even better if they decide with three years of eligibility that they're tired of sitting the bench.

Totally agree. Could be a guy with 3 years left to play if they redshirted at the blue blood.

[ShotgunDawg]

Yeah, 18 and 7 seems about right to me.

Maybe, depends on the year, but you don't reach on any of those 18 talent wise

[ShotgunDawg]

We should continue recruiting every 94+ rated HS player in the country so that we have prior relationships with 15% that enter the portal in less than two years

[BuckyIsAB****]

Agree. It will be interesting to see where things stand in a few years.

Burrow and Polk have to be 2 of the biggest successes. Burrow was before it all blew up this big.

I would say the majority of them dont pan out, there is always a reason they left in the first place. Im not against it I think it actually is attempting to create more parity which I am all for. But when you have starters transferring you have a problem. The best example is To?oo at Alabama. That is ridiculous and they just got a DB from LSU

[Dak Holliday]

Well, when you?ve put more people in the first round than you have losses, it?s gonna happen. Saban told folks it better change or else he?s just gonna use it to shop and the talent gap will just get bigger.

[Hot Rock]

I agree to some extend but, not everyone is going to be a transfer player. There will still be more guys that don't transfer than do.

What you can do now is not take those project players. Getting a guy just to get to a number for depth is not going to happen as much. Those guys will go G5 for a year or two and if they develop, they will then transfer to a P5.

18-22 high school & 5-10 transfer guys seems to be the sweet spot for a lot of coaches. I think if you go 15-20 transfer guys you are setting yourself up for disaster at least if you do it multiple years.

The players with 3 years left won't be as common in the future and you can't replace your whole roster every two years. That extra Covid year will be gone.

[ShotgunDawg]

Burrow and Polk have to be 2 of the biggest successes. Burrow was before it all blew up this big.

I would say the majority of them dont pan out, there is always a reason they left in the first place. Im not against it I think it actually is attempting to create more parity which I am all for. But when you have starters transferring you have a problem. The best example is To?oo at Alabama. That is ridiculous and they just got a DB from LSU

Agree with all.

I wish there was a playing time component attached to the free transfer. If you played X% of your teams snaps, you have to sit a year if you transfer

[Todd4State]

I think for MSU an ideal class would be 20 high school players and 5 transfers between JUCO and the portal.

I think the portal is similar to what JUCO kind of used to be although not entirely the same. If you sign 10-15 high school kids a cycle then at some point that will catch up to a team because some of those players won't pan out in the 10-15 member class and then they're in a situation where they have to get more and more transfers or they're going to end up very young at some point. Same thing that happened to Jackie when we loaded up on JUCO's. Going JUCO heavy helped us win big from 1996-2000. But by 2002 our numbers were really messed up and it set us back for awhile.

Similarly, signing players out of the portal isn't without risk. Especially QB's. Those players are leaving for a reason. It isn't just to make more NIL money. To me, it's mostly about playing time and coaches changing than anything. Look at the majority of MSU players that entered the portal. Most were not guys that were expected to play anytime soon if at all.

[smootness]

HS recruits can up & leave after 1 semester. It's hard to develop & coach them correctly. You can't really de-recruit them like a coaching staff needs to be able to do

Yes, but again, the vast majority won't. You have to invest in them like they will stick around and just take your losses on the ones that don't.

[smootness]

Burrow and Polk have to be 2 of the biggest successes. Burrow was before it all blew up this big.

I would say the majority of them dont pan out, there is always a reason they left in the first place. Im not against it I think it actually is attempting to create more parity which I am all for. But when you have starters transferring you have a problem. The best example is To?oo at Alabama. That is ridiculous and they just got a DB from LSU

Justin Fields
Jameson Williams
Baker Mayfield
Jalen Hurts

The list goes on, and you don't even realize them all, guys like Derion Kendrick at UGA.

[Dawgfan77]

I think for MSU an ideal class would be 20 high school players and 5 transfers between JUCO and the portal.

I think the portal is similar to what JUCO kind of used to be although not entirely the same. If you sign 10-15 high school kids a cycle then at some point that will catch up to a team because some of those players won't pan out in the 10-15 member class and then they're in a situation where they have to get more and more transfers or they're going to end up very young at some point. Same thing that happened to Jackie when we loaded up on JUCO's. Going JUCO heavy helped us win big from 1996-2000. But by 2002 our numbers were really messed up and it set us back for awhile.

Similarly, signing players out of the portal isn't without risk. Especially QB's. Those players are leaving for a reason. It isn't just to make more NIL money. To me, it's mostly about playing time and coaches changing than anything. Look at the majority of MSU players that entered the portal. Most were not guys that were expected to play anytime soon if at all.
You can sign as many players out of the portal thst have left your program if those players aren't grad transfers. Sign 15-18 HS kids one or two JUCOs and the rest transfer portal guys

[BuckyIsAB****]

Justin Fields
Jameson Williams
Baker Mayfield
Jalen Hurts

The list goes on, and you don't even realize them all, guys like Derion Kendrick at UGA.

Mayfield and Hurts and Fields were before starters were transferring to start somewhere else

[msstate7]

Delete

[confucius say]

Maybe, depends on the year, but you don't reach on any of those 18 talent wise

We've reached on a lot of guys who played in the nfl. Calhoun, Jenkins, banks, Preston smith, Bmac, Dillon day, beckwith, tyre Phillips, Dak, etc.... bunch of two and low to mid 3 stars.

There are multiple ways to get it done. Portal is certainly one way.

[FISHDAWG]

And it might save them this year.

it just did ... I think 247 is giving them the #1 spot on portal recruiting. They also just picked up the TE from USC (Trigg)

[Hot Rock]

You can sign as many players out of the portal thst have left your program if those players aren't grad transfers. Sign 15-18 HS kids one or two JUCOs and the rest transfer portal guys

That is not true. You can sign up to a certain point but it is capped. I think you get up to 32. Turning your roster completely over every two years would be impossible. 3 year portal guys will not be common.

[Johnson85]

That is not true. You can sign up to a certain point but it is capped. I think you get up to 32. Turning your roster completely over every two years would be impossible. 3 year portal guys will not be common.

I think that 32 is only approved for a temporary basis. I think they bumped it because of a combination of blue bloods were going to be left short handed as a result of a lot of bench warmers transferring out and also realizing a lot of sholarships were going to be left unused (or given to walkons) while there were simultaneously a lot of transfers without scholarships, and they didn't want the PR headache.

I think (hope) they are going to ratchet that down over time. Or they may have separate slots for high school and transfer players so they don't have a lot fewer high school students getting scholarship offers.

[Dawgfan77]

That is not true. You can sign up to a certain point but it is capped. I think you get up to 32. Turning your roster completely over every two years would be impossible. 3 year portal guys will not be common.

We are somewhere in the middle here
https://www.si.com/college/2021/08/20/ncaa-football-signing-limit-change-transfer-portal

[Maroonthirteen]

We are somewhere in the middle here
https://www.si.com/college/2021/08/20/ncaa-football-signing-limit-change-transfer-portal

Appreciate that link. Ill admit I didn't ace differential equations...... however, Ive been doing the math. Aren't teams building themselves up for a one year run and creating a hole in the roster that will sink them for seasons. I mean if your signing class is 20-30% portal, 1 year guys. Don't you have to sign 20-30% of 1 year guys forever or until finally you sign 25 HS guys and have a void in the upper classes.

[Johnson85]

Appreciate that link. Ill admit I didn't ace differential equations...... however, Ive been doing the math. Aren't teams building themselves up for a one year run and creating a hole in the roster that will sink them for seasons. I mean if your signing class is 20-30% portal, 1 year guys. Don't you have to sign 20-30% of 1 year guys forever or until finally you sign 25 HS guys and have a void in the upper classes.

Signing a lot of 1 year guys is a problem, but if you sign 25 guys a year, and redshirt 12 guys, with no attrition, you'd have 112 players. So you can have around 6 or 7 in a class leave if you are signing players with 4 years of eligibility. Signing 4-6 one year players each year would accomplish the same thing for numbers. Of course that ignores that you are going to have natural attrition, presumably at a higher rate than previously because of lax transfer rules. I think you are going to see a lot more transfers with more than 1 year of eligibility moving forward, as people figure out by their RS So year what their role will be and whether they're happy with it. QB's and K's may be an exception. Might see a lot of them transfer as a sophomore or junior, and then if they get passed over again, try to do a grad transfer to a starting position.

[Hot Rock]

If a guy is transferring in his RS sophomore year, most likely he has never played and won't be playing anytime soon. Who is going to want those guys unless they were 4 stars or better out of HS.

A 3 star guy that has never shown anything on tape, might find himself out of football.

[Johnson85]

If a guy is transferring in his RS sophomore year, most likely he has never played and won't be playing anytime soon. Who is going to want those guys unless they were 4 stars or better out of HS.

A 3 star guy that has never shown anything on tape, might find himself out of football.

A team like USM will take a RS So that hasn't played for us for the same reason we would take a RS SO who hasn't played for Bama. Having a need plus thinking they are a better risk than the realistic options they have in high school recruits.

But I do think there's going to have to be a reckoning for a lot of players. Unless midtier P5 teams just start trading players, there are going to be a lot more people looking for playing time than there will be G5 teams with spots available.

You'll have a decent number of players looking to go from Blue blood to midtier P5 teams. A decent number of players looking to leave mid tier P5 teams for playing time (presumably to go to G5 schools). A small number of established G5 players looking to move up to P5. Unless you have lots of players that leave schools like say USCe and get picked up by a school like MSU or Ole Miss and vice versa, there are going to be a lot of players left in the cold or transferring to FCS or DII.

[Hot Rock]

A team like USM will take a RS So that hasn't played for us for the same reason we would take a RS SO who hasn't played for Bama. Having a need plus thinking they are a better risk than the realistic options they have in high school recruits.

But I do think there's going to have to be a reckoning for a lot of players. Unless midtier P5 teams just start trading players, there are going to be a lot more people looking for playing time than there will be G5 teams with spots available.

You'll have a decent number of players looking to go from Blue blood to midtier P5 teams. A decent number of players looking to leave mid tier P5 teams for playing time (presumably to go to G5 schools). A small number of established G5 players looking to move up to P5. Unless you have lots of players that leave schools like say USCe and get picked up by a school like MSU or Ole Miss and vice versa, there are going to be a lot of players left in the cold or transferring to FCS or DII.

My point is this: A 3 or even low 4 star RS soph that has not seen the field for Mississippi State is not going to another SEC school and his P5 offers will be few and far between.

[Johnson85]

My point is this: A 3 or even low 4 star RS soph that has not seen the field for Mississippi State is not going to another SEC school and his P5 offers will be few and far between.

Right. Just like a RS Soph that has not seen the field for Bama is probably not going to UGA or OSU right now (or vice versa).

Very few of these transfers are going to be making lateral moves. They will mostly be moving "down" for playing time. A small number will be moving "up" after a few good years to show that they can play at a higher level. A small number will be moving because of getting passed by or having disputes with coaches or whatever and have the option to make a lateral move because a lateral school just has a need. And you will occasionally have players taking a coaching change as an opportunity to make a lateral move. But this is mostly going to be players trading a spot on a bench at a more prestigious school for playing time at a less prestigious school.

One of the reasons that MSU (and similarly situated schools) is well suited for the portal is that players leaving will likely have to go G5, so leaving won't be attractive to a lot of players, but we will be an attractive landing spot for G5 players looking to move up and prove themselves as well as for players coming from blue bloods looking for playing time.

[IMissJack]

Adapt or die, our program has to adapt.