Keep an eye on late this weekend

[starkvegasdawg]

Models are starting to trend towards an interesting direction. The last few days they've gone from sunny and in the 40's to low 50's to a colder with chances of precipitation. I'll let you put 2 and 2 together. As of right now, only the Euro model has gone fully on board with a wintry weekend, but the others are slowly easing that direction. About 4 of the GFS ensemble members are on board, too. Now, this far out the next run may be sunny and 60 and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. Winter weather is notoriously hard to forecast here. Of the models showing snow this weekend the line looks to roughly be north of a Yazoo City to Macon area with accumulation amounts ranging from 2-6". But again, no way of knowing this far out. We could get more than this, less, or none at all. None at all usually wins out at least 95% of the time it seems.

Trends have been building for a pattern flip bringing down arctic air to the eastern 1/3 of the US. Temps in northwest Canada are running -30 to -40. If the pattern flip holds, pieces of that cold air will start breaking off and heading SE. Depending on how much breaks free and how fast it travels will determine how much it modifies as it heads this way. Regarding this, the models have been wildly inconsistent. They've ranged from "this isn't too bad" to "you won't see your balls again until St. Patrick's day." This looks to be the case through at least the end of the month. So IF these pieces of arctic air break off and can make their way here reasonably intact and IF we can get some moisture in place at the same time then parts of the southeast could have a chance of multiple rounds of wintry weather over the next 2-3 weeks.

[Thick]

Thanks bud!

[Extendedcab]

You know you are teasing me with the talk of wintry weather - I love it! I hope you are not disappointing us!

I enjoyed my 4 years in the greater Boston area where my first winter there (2014/2015) we had 10' of snow over the winter season. I was in heaven!

[starkvegasdawg]

You know you are teasing me with the talk of wintry weather - I love it! I hope you are not disappointing us!

I enjoyed my 4 years in the greater Boston area where my first winter there (2014/2015) we had 10' of snow over the winter season. I was in heaven!

I assure you the sight of snow falling makes me five years old all over again. I could sit and watch it fall all day and night. When it snows at night I'll turn on the patio lights so I can watch it fall. When a forecast of snow busts it's devastating to me. So I'm right there with you hoping this happens. Right now it's a long shot but it's slightly less of a long shot than it was 24 hours ago.

[DownwardDawg]

Nashville????

[starkvegasdawg]

Nashville????

Haven't really looked that far north but I'd keep an eye out, too. Probably more than us here.

[DownwardDawg]

Haven't really looked that far north but I'd keep an eye out, too. Probably more than us here.

Yeah, I see now it looks like at least 3 inches. It's early. That means it'll be a ton like last week.

I'm like you. I love this. Any flakes me me smile. I'm 54 and love it like a kid. It just sucks having to drive in it.

[Commercecomet24]

I assure you the sight of snow falling makes me five years old all over again. I could sit and watch it fall all day and night. When it snows at night I'll turn on the patio lights so I can watch it fall. When a forecast of snow busts it's devastating to me. So I'm right there with you hoping this happens. Right now it's a long shot but it's slightly less of a long shot than it was 24 hours ago.

Same here.

[parabrave]

Better get an early start to the Milk and Bread section.

[CaptainObvious]

Better get an early start to the Milk and Bread section.

Forget about finding bread and milk?

COVID!

[Cooterpoot]

Making my nipples hard!

[parabrave]

Forget about finding bread and milk?

COVID!

You mean Toilet Paper and Lysol.

[DownwardDawg]

This system seems unpredictable so far. Seeing forecasts from freezing rain/light snow to 4-6 inches of snow. Guess it depends where the colder temperatures fall.

[OLJWales]

I love snow but I'd grow tired of clearing my driveway every day throughout an entire winter. And MINUS 35!?? Aw Hell Naw. Don't even wanna think about that.

[starkvegasdawg]

This system seems unpredictable so far. Seeing forecasts from freezing rain/light snow to 4-6 inches of snow. Guess it depends where the colder temperatures fall.

It's the nightmare of predicting winter weather down here. Everything has to set up perfectly for it to happen and it's impossible to know if that will happen until right before it starts. And then you're still not sure a lot of times.

[CaptainObvious]

I also noticed the last few years the upper level lows bringing their own cold air tend to produce a few snows in the Deep South.

Like you said, that absolute Perfect set up with the High over the Midwest in absolutely the perfect place driving the cold air south or southeasterly and that strong Low sliding along the Gulf also pulling the cold air down while throwing the gulf moisture over the top is so rare for us Middle Gulf Coasters, whereas that setup may Miss us and the low tracks across Georgia and South Carolina and combines with another Low in the Ohio/PA region with cold air in place and drops 15-20 inches in NC and Va. valleys.

[TNDawg35]

Weather channel this afternoon was showing extremely heavy stuff over literally my house (Tipton/Shelby line) Any word on that?

[starkvegasdawg]

Weather channel this afternoon was showing extremely heavy stuff over literally my house (Tipton/Shelby line) Any word on that?

The models have been somewhat consistent in developing a band of heavy snow across parts of TN. But the exact location will come down to where the low tracks. A difference of 25-50 miles makes all the difference in the world.

[Barking 13]

Was that your video on yt? NMC&S

[starkvegasdawg]

Was that your video on yt? NMC&S

If you're talking about the one on the winter weather then no. That was done by another guy on our team.

[MetEdDawg]

Right now it looks like the areas of biggest concern will be north central TN, a good portion of Kentucky, and the central and western portions of North Carolina.

If you're planning on being in north central Tennessee or Kentucky around Sunday, good luck. Models are spitting out a foot or more of snow for that area pretty consistently now.

[starkvegasdawg]

Right now it looks like the areas of biggest concern will be north central TN, a good portion of Kentucky, and the central and western portions of North Carolina.

If you're planning on being in north central Tennessee or Kentucky around Sunday, good luck. Models are spitting out a foot or more of snow for that area pretty consistently now.

Overnight model runs have seemed to have really shifted all the snow out of most of MS. Hope there just a one off and not a trend. I was really wanting to see it snow.

[Pancho]

Thx Vegas.

[FISHDAWG]

Right now it looks like the areas of biggest concern will be north central TN, a good portion of Kentucky, and the central and western portions of North Carolina.

If you're planning on being in north central Tennessee or Kentucky around Sunday, good luck. Models are spitting out a foot or more of snow for that area pretty consistently now.

Does that include Cookeville, TN ? .... it's about an hour East of Nashville

[DownwardDawg]

Does that include Cookeville, TN ? .... it's about an hour East of Nashville

I'd say yes.

[starkvegasdawg]

To illustrate how hard forecasting snow is for here a lot of the models have taken most of It out of MS. Then the nam says hold my beer and paints most of east MS in 3-5".

[DownwardDawg]

To illustrate how hard forecasting snow is for here a lot of the models have taken most of It out of MS. Then the nam says hold my beer and paints most of east MS in 3-5".

Yeah. I keep watching forecasts for Nashville all day each day. We gonna get a light dusting or up to 8 inches. Maybe more depending on who you listen to. I can't imagine it worse than last week though.
I really hope Mississippi gets some.

[DesotoDog1967]

What about the Southaven Memphis area?

[Extendedcab]

Me too, but I'm in Madison MS - South Central part of the state. From more recent posts, it sounds like we are out of luck - again! :(

[starkvegasdawg]

The NAM and GFS both trended southward on accumulating snow for Sunday. Areas north of 82 could be looking at 1-3" in accumulation. The Canadian model is bringing in slightly higher amounts but concentrating it more into NW and extreme north MS. And some models are just laughing at those predicting snow. So depending on the model you could be looking anywhere from a cold rain to 6"+.

[TNDawg35]

I have seen everything from 1-3 to 8-12 for Tipton Co. (TN). Any insight for me and if I can call out for inclement weather and go duck hunting instead??

[OLJWales]

From my experience living most of my life down south, the precip and cold air never rendezvous simultaneously. Always Bums me Out.

[OLJWales]

From my experience living most of my life down south, the precip and cold air rarely rendezvous simultaneously. Always Bums me Out. Rain, followed by cold then precip gone.

[starkvegasdawg]

Jackson NWS now saying confident rain will change to snow north of I-20 Saturday night. Still not sure about accumulations due to how dynamic things are. One area could see several inches and a nearby location almost entirely a cold rain with only a brief change over.

[RougeDawg]

Any chances of iced roads Monday around mid day? Looks like it will warm up enough to melt any. Planning on making another hunting weekend and to come back Monday.

[starkvegasdawg]

Any chances of iced roads Monday around mid day? Looks like it will warm up enough to melt any. Planning on making another hunting weekend and to come back Monday.

All going to depend on how much your area receives. If you get several inches that'll cause more cooling than forecast.

[DownwardDawg]

5-8 inches now predicted in Nashville

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest NAM coming in hot for snow for eastern and northern MS. Close to a foot near the TN border and 4+ along the eastern 82 corridor and 1-2" down near meridian.

[DownwardDawg]

Latest NAM coming in hot for snow for eastern and northern MS. Close to a foot near the TN border and 4+ along the eastern 82 corridor and 1-2" down near meridian.

Woot!!!

[DesotoDog1967]

Southaven?

[starkvegasdawg]

Wife has the Covid so I'm having to quarantine so a lot more time to model watch. My favorite model, the HRRR, is just grabbing the early stages of the weekend event. And all I have to say is...

https://www.myconfinedspace.com/wp-content/uploads/tdomf/70948/daff.gif

[starkvegasdawg]

Here is the HRRR for 6:00am Sunday.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJEUUYUXEAYUAS3?format=jpg&name=large

[Extendedcab]

Don't tease me, I can't take it!!

[Heydawg]

Hey SVD, I?m not super good at reading maps like these. What?s you best guess for Jackson on Sunday. Especially Sunday morning? Thanks

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey SVD, I?m not super good at reading maps like these. What?s you best guess for Jackson on Sunday. Especially Sunday morning? Thanks

If this map verifies, or close to it, then Jackson will be waking up to snow falling.

[TNDawg35]

If this map verifies, or close to it, then Jackson will be waking up to snow falling.

So am I gonna have to go to work or not tom night/Sunday night or can I go duck hunting…. HAHA!!! What’s the totals looking like for Tipton Co…

[SaintDawg]

This forecast reminds me alot of December 2017. Most, if not all, forecasts called for a light dusting in Central MS. I woke up that Friday morning to 6 inches in Brandon.

[DownwardDawg]

What's the latest? Some of the forecasts I'm seeing for Nashville now are a little less exciting. Not nearly as much snow as they were saying yesterday. Got the grand baby coming up from Mississippi. I want that blizzard now!!!

[starkvegasdawg]

What's the latest? Some of the forecasts I'm seeing for Nashville now are a little less exciting. Not nearly as much snow as they were saying yesterday. Got the grand baby coming up from Mississippi. I want that blizzard now!!!

I haven't really looked into TN. Been focusing on MS. When the next model runs come in I'll take a look. Some of the models are backing off on the snow for all but extreme north MS...say north of Tupelo. Just an indication that around 30 hours out models still aren't sure what's going to happen.

[starkvegasdawg]

What's the latest? Some of the forecasts I'm seeing for Nashville now are a little less exciting. Not nearly as much snow as they were saying yesterday. Got the grand baby coming up from Mississippi. I want that blizzard now!!!

I would feel safe saying that part of TN will get 2-4" with some isolated areas up to 6". A couple of the models still losing their minds with snow totals but I just have a hard time thinking that happens this far south. Maybe I'm wrong. Hope I am.

[DownwardDawg]

I would feel safe saying that part of TN will get 2-4" with some isolated areas up to 6". A couple of the models still losing their minds with snow totals but I just have a hard time thinking that happens this far south. Maybe I'm wrong. Hope I am.

Thanks man! I'm hoping for 4" or better west of Nashville.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks man! I'm hoping for 4" or better west of Nashville.

That's what she said.

[DownwardDawg]

That's what she said.

Haha!! She can keep hoping!!

[starkvegasdawg]

Models are still doing the hokey pokey with snow accumulations in MS. The NWS doesn't seem to think it amounts to a whole lot once you get south of Grenada. That actually gives me hope we see some decent snows. Back when my dad was alive any time snow was forecast he'd say it's not going to do anything and that it only snows when they don't predict it. 95% of the time heh was absolutely correct. So I'm encouraged by them saying this will be mostly rain for the bulk of MS.

[PGHBulldogBG]

Looking like 12-16 inches for me in southwestern PA. Could be a mini blizzard of 93 around here.

[starkvegasdawg]

12z runs for MS are taking big steaming dump on the snow.

[msstate7]

I've been checking out the weather here (union, ms), and I see lots of snow/rain in our forecast using the highly advanced built-in weather app on my iPhone. The problem I see is it isn't supposed to be 32 degrees. So I guess we just gonna see it fall and then melt, right?

[starkvegasdawg]

I've been checking out the weather here (union, ms), and I see lots of snow/rain in our forecast using the highly advanced built-in weather app on my iPhone. The problem I see is it isn't supposed to be 32 degrees. So I guess we just gonna see it fall and then melt, right?

The low should wrap around enough cold air to allow it to stick to at least elevated surfaces. But that's all dependent on where the low tracks. A northern track and it can't bring it in this far south and we end up with mainly rain or snow melting when it hits.

[RougeDawg]

Back reporting from Becker Bottom this weekend. Hopefully we see some flakes. And nice Bucks. Thanks for the updates.

And how many subscribers are you up to now?

[starkvegasdawg]

Back reporting from Becker Bottom this weekend. Hopefully we see some flakes. And nice Bucks. Thanks for the updates.

And how many subscribers are you up to now?

Sitting at 798 right now.

[RougeDawg]

Sitting at 798 right now.

I?m guessing you?ve done something like this, but have you Tweeted out to local weather stations/people some of your work and links? A few retweet?s or mentions could bump you up quickly. Trying to think of ways to spread beyond this board.

[starkvegasdawg]

I?m guessing you?ve done something like this, but have you Tweeted out to local weather stations/people some of your work and links? A few retweet?s or mentions could bump you up quickly. Trying to think of ways to spread beyond this board.

I've tweeted it out but I don't think the local stations can be seen promoting something like this. Even WTVA that we're affiliated with.

[RougeDawg]

I've tweeted it out but I don't think the local stations can be seen promoting something like this. Even WTVA that we're affiliated with.

Well damn. I don?t know. Tweet to some people with large followings and see what happens. Maybe some independent weather sites or people. Good luck.

[Noxdog]

I've tweeted it out but I don't think the local stations can be seen promoting something like this. Even WTVA that we're affiliated with.

As we head into the evening?

Starkville area?

[starkvegasdawg]

As we head into the evening?

Starkville area?

I'm thinking boom or bust. It either pulls in enough cold air to give us 2-4" or we end up lucky to get a dusting. All going to come down to if the low can pull in enough cold air whirl it is still close enough to have some moisture to work with. Still showing in the mid 40's now so it's got some work to do. Look for any change to snow to happen Sunday morning in the 5-8am timeframe.

[Pancho]

I have a kid heading that way sometime before 12 noon so we'll be paying close attention.

[RocketDawg]

I'm thinking boom or bust. It either pulls in enough cold air to give us 2-4" or we end up lucky to get a dusting. All going to come down to if the low can pull in enough cold air whirl it is still close enough to have some moisture to work with. Still showing in the mid 40's now so it's got some work to do. Look for any change to snow to happen Sunday morning in the 5-8am timeframe.

We have 42 and very light rain at 8 p.m. Forecasters aren't expecting much of anything for us - an inch at most.

It's a lot warmer than in Buffalo. No idea how they play in such conditions, or how fans sit through it.

[parabrave]

Looking like 12-16 inches for me in southwestern PA. Could be a mini blizzard of 93 around here.

Well if you see a weatherman who looks like Bill Murray you're about to get blasted.

[CaptainObvious]

The Jackson metro went from snow possibly starting at 11 PM to now all the way out to 4 AM. By that time the ULL will be pulling out and losing its moisture to work with. Looks like Desoti County and Memphis gets slammed and anyone else gets a dusting to an inch.

The temps dropped timely as expected but the main moisture pull out ahead of the ULL. How much energy is left for the ULL is what we depend on in west and central Miss.

[parabrave]

Checked out the GOEs East upper level Water Vapor satellite and to my untrained eye it looks like the center is around Baton Rouge.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/CONUS/08/20220160416_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-08-1250x750.jpg

[DownwardDawg]

Terrible cold rain here west of Nashville. 37 degrees and raining. Just nasty.

[TNDawg35]

Just a cold rain in Arlington right now. I have been watching models and the GFS is showing around 3-5 for us and the ECMWF is still around 6 inches for us. Every model is different.

[3dawgnight15]

Sleet/freezing rain in Rankin County.

[CaptainObvious]

Since we are Now-Casting.

Light Snow and 31 degrees in Pearl

[bobcat91]

Snow falling in Rankin County. The lawn has a white covering. I'm hoping we get more than a dusting since the thermometer says 31 and it's heavy enough to look like haze

[parabrave]

Its colder in Jackson than memphis/

[CaptainObvious]

Its colder in Jackson than memphis/

Because we have the Upper Level Low with its own Cold Air passing by us down here. It does look like everything from here on out will be light, in some cases too light for Radar Reflectivity though. The heavier bands to the west seem to be tapering off fast instead of rotating through. I suspect a dusting is about all we see here in the metro.

[RocketDawg]

Cantore just said that some place in south-central Mississippi had 7.8" overnight.

Rain changed to snow about an hour ago here but it's melting as soon as it hits the ground. 34 degrees at my house.

[William Tecumsah Sherman]

Unbelievable. I?m West of Canton and got nothing. Literally 20 miles down the road east of Canton got 7 inches!

[sleepy dawg]

I've got nothing on the ground or even on roofs or anything. My Father in law who lives in Camden about 30 minutes away has several inches on the ground.

[PGHBulldogBG]

This storm system is weird. It seems to have dry slots and just isn?t that well organized. Seems to be spotty who is getting rain vs snow vs sleet. Not a true line definition like most storms

[DownwardDawg]

Very light dusting on ground here in Nashville. And it's that wet crap. Just ice mainly. Supposed to snow hard pretty soon and snow until around 3:00 pm. We'll see. This "winter storm" ain't shit compared to the unnamed blizzard we had last week. It looked like Alaska up here last week. Weather forecasts are funny.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just a mix here in Starkville but 20 miles and several inches.

And just to put this out there. Gfs says round 2 next weekend. But we've all seen how much things can change.

[Turfdawg67]

GA is getting steady snow. Sticking some, but it's 36?

[Dawg_Lover]

One of my sons lives in northern Brandon, Rankin County, next to Hwy 471, about a mile south of Fanin, and he had between 6 & 8 inches. I am in Desoto county, the northwestern tip of MS, and I had MAYBE an 1 inch even though much more was predicted. Instead of snowing around midnight, as again predicted, at 2 or 3 AM it was still 37 or 38 degrees & raining.
Someone stated, on here, their Dad?s philosophy was to expect the opposite of whatever the weatherman said. I always heard that, too. I concur.

[starkvegasdawg]

Someone stated, on here, their Dad?s philosophy was to expect the opposite of whatever the weatherman said. I always heard that, too. I concur.

That was me. The places that got a lot of snow it wasn't predicted and the places predicted didn't get much. He just said if they predict snow then almost guaranteed it won't snow. A lot of that was just to get under my skin but a lot of truth in it, too.

[DownwardDawg]

Snowing hard here now. They saying 4" over the next several hours. I just want everything to be covered because I love how it looks.

[Dawg_Lover]

That was me. The places that got a lot of snow it wasn't predicted and the places predicted didn't get much. He just said if they predict snow then almost guaranteed it won't snow. A lot of that was just to get under my skin but a lot of truth in it, too.

My Dad did exactly the same thing just to get a rise out of me, and it usually did. And, I agree with your last statement, too. On an opposite note, here in Desoto county probably about 8 to 10 years ago, when a winter storm front was to come through our general region it was predicted we would maybe get an inch or two. We woke up to 7 inches of snow. That stuck with me because we got 7 inches on March 7th. It was quite a surprise. Snowdrifts were over knee deep.