Today's severe weather threat

[starkvegasdawg]

Is going to be highly conditional. Due to this the SPC has shaved back the enhanced threat to basically north of Highway 82 in MS and Birmingham north in Alabama. They are still maintaining the 10% hatched tornado threat for this area. The big condition is a very strong capping inversion in the mid levels of the atmosphere. The models don't know how to handle it. The trusty HRRR is showing the cap breaking around 1:00 and tornadic supercells developing by 2:00 in eastern MS. It's absolutely worst case scenario. Some of the other models are showing the cap holding and storms holding off until the qlcs moves through tonight. It will have a straight line wind threat and a couple embedded tornadoes. Some of the other models are in between these two solitons. I wish I could say what is going to happen. I usually tend to lean towards the HRRR for day of events, but it's not infallible. Basically this afternoon if you look up at the sky and see cumulus clouds all of a sudden going from little cotton balls to exploding up in height then the cap has broken and get ready. Mjoelner and I will be meeting up around noon and probably staging somewhere around West Point.

As a reminder, if anything develops and i livestream, it will be available today only on our YouTube channel and not behind our Patreon paywall site.

Also, thanks so much again for your support in getting us subscribers. At last look we were at 598. 24 hours ago it was 215.

[RougeDawg]

Good stuff. Thanks for the heads up. Hunting today between Amory and Aberdeen. Praying it?s not the worst case scenario described above. Pretty calm here now.

[MetEdDawg]

Higher resolution models support this thinking too. I'm not sure it's worst case scenario but it could end up being a fairly productive tornado day .

Really is very conditional on the cap breaking which it looks like could happen in the northern 1/3 of MS and AL

[starkvegasdawg]

The 14z hrrr is just flat out scary. No other words for it. If that cap breaks all hell is going to break loose.

[RougeDawg]

Well the humidity does appear to be dropping as the morning has gone on in the stand. Was really sticky and humid until about 8-9 pm last night and been getting better. Hopefully it helps keep things calmer.

[starkvegasdawg]

Moisture is here. Just may not feel as noticeable. Biggest thing is sunshine and temp. If we keep sun and we get the temp up in the upper 70's that could be enough to break the cap.

[RougeDawg]

10-4. Not much sun here. Pretty solid cloud cover. Feels nice.

[starkvegasdawg]

10-4. Not much sun here. Pretty solid cloud cover. Feels nice.

Where are you located if I may ask?

[RougeDawg]

Becker Bottom. About 500-600 yards off of Tombigbee.

Subscribed too.

[CrosscityDawg]

Sunny and 75 in Corinth right now.

[DownwardDawg]

Tornado warning in Kentucky

[starkvegasdawg]

Starting to get some shower development between Vicksburg and Yazoo city. Have to watch and see what those do. Are they just showers or future supercells.

[Saltydog]

Becker Bottom. About 500-600 yards off of Tombigbee.

Subscribed too.

Didn't realize you were a fellow Monroe Countian.......

[donald igwebuike]

Mostly sunny and 75 in Itawamba county. Very uncomfortable.

Vegas what is your YouTube URL, again?

[starkvegasdawg]

Mostly sunny and 75 in Itawamba county. Very uncomfortable.

Vegas what is your YouTube URL, again?

https://youtube.com/c/NorthMississippiStormChasersandSpotters

[RougeDawg]

Well I?m a part time Monroe county resident during deer season. Hunt on some old family farm land. Been coming up in these parts over 35 years.

[parabrave]

A line is starting to form around the ArkLaTex/ Temp on both sides of the front. TXarkana 66 OKC 22. Gonna be a bumpy ride along and north of 20 later today.

[Dawgbite]

Didn't realize you were a fellow Monroe Countian.......
Me too. I live only 3-4 miles from Becker Bottom, just across the river. It's probably a 15 mile drive either way.

[starkvegasdawg]

Chase mode is activated. Currently sitting near Okolona watching radar. Live stream may be going up before too much longer.

[Dawgology]

Just subscribed. My mom calls me every time there is news of local severe weather and asks me what y’all are saying on the forums. Haha

[huffy]

Sun is shining and the thermometer is reading close to 80 degrees in NW Alabama. Beautiful day minus the wind. Hopefully that warm air doesn't spell trouble for later.

[Dawg_Lover]

Damage earlier across Memphis. Not sure, but possibly straight line winds. Large trees down, some on homes, power lines down with some poles snapped in half, even a ground-mount metal basketball goal post bent in half. Last report between 5 & 6 thousand still without power. Some of the damage is in the areas of Perkins, Mendenhall, Walnut Grove & Chickasaw. Not sure of the timing of this wind event.

[MetEdDawg]

So far the cap has held which aligned with the more recent higher resolution models.

There's been some eroding of it in a few places but so far the cap has kept a lid on storm development.

[OLJWales]

Just went from 70 to 47 and wind from zero to 30 in about 10 minutes here in Fort Worth getting down to 24 tonight. Cant believe we flirted with 80 all week long.

[DownwardDawg]

Just went from 70 to 47 and wind from zero to 30 in about 10 minutes here in Fort Worth getting down to 24 tonight. Cant believe we flirted with 80 all week long.

Yeah. Here in Nashville I was fishing yesterday. Snow is predicted for tomorrow.

[parabrave]

Just went from 70 to 47 and wind from zero to 30 in about 10 minutes here in Fort Worth getting down to 24 tonight. Cant believe we flirted with 80 all week long.

Hope they have put de icing on all those Bird killing machines out in west TX.

[RougeDawg]

Hope they have put de icing on all those Bird killing machines out in west TX.

Wouldn?t have mattered if the EPA had allowed the natural gas plants to run at full capacity before the outages. The Texas ERCOT asked for an emergency waiver when they saw the turbines going out and asked the Federal Government for a temporary emergency waiver to juice up their horrible clean burning natural gas plants. EPA rule for Texas says something along the lines of ?if you increase hydrocarbon energy production you also have to increase so called renewable energy by an equal amount.?

They were not allowed to ramp up to keep the grid up and it went down.

And speaking of renewable energy, the process of the earth making oil/nat gas is the original renewable energy. Been going on for millions of years and will continue as long as there is organic matter living on earth, particularly the oceans. Anyone interested should dig into it. We haven?t even tapped into a small portion of what?s been made, let alone the oil and gas continuously being made by the earth. By definition of renewable, that fits it to a T.

[Dawg_Lover]

Wouldn?t have mattered if the EPA had allowed the natural gas plants to run at full capacity before the outages. The Texas ERCOT asked for an emergency waiver when they saw the turbines going out and asked the Federal Government for a temporary emergency waiver to juice up their horrible clean burning natural gas plants. EPA rule for Texas says something along the lines of ?if you increase hydrocarbon energy production you also have to increase so called renewable energy by an equal amount.?

They were not allowed to ramp up to keep the grid up and it went down.

And speaking of renewable energy, the process of the earth making oil/nat gas is the original renewable energy. Been going on for millions of years and will continue as long as there is organic matter living on earth, particularly the oceans. Anyone interested should dig into it. We haven?t even tapped into a small portion of what?s been made, let alone the oil and gas continuously being made by the earth. By definition of renewable, that fits it to a T.


I agree with what you said, but, of course, Al Gore and his pocketbook would not.

[Noxdog]

I agree with what you said, but, of course, Al Gore and his pocketbook would not.

Are we in the clear in North central MS??

Ventusky shows nothing barely coming through.

[DownwardDawg]

Y'all don't get the weather thread locked. Focus.....focus.....

[Dawg_Lover]

Y'all don't get the weather thread locked. Focus.....focus.....

True .... Apologies .... Tornado warning now, for Columbus .... All of you, in the path, prayers for your safety!

[Saltydog]

Well I?m a part time Monroe county resident during deer season. Hunt on some old family farm land. Been coming up in these parts over 35 years.

Gotcha. I live in Amory and work in the Aberdeen area so I'm very familiar with that area. I was thinking, if I'm not mistaken, that you lived in the Philadelphia/Nehshoba County area but I may be wrong.

[starkvegasdawg]

Severe threat starting to wind down. Front is now pushing through the state. And before you ask, I have no idea why things busted. The cap broke so storms should have immediately gone severe but they just didn't. They tried. I'll at least give them that. Did see a couple wall clouds but that was it. But between not seeing any really good storms and my live stream laying a hot steaming corn filled deuce on the mattress, this was a pretty forgettable chase.

[parabrave]

Wouldn?t have mattered if the EPA had allowed the natural gas plants to run at full capacity before the outages. The Texas ERCOT asked for an emergency waiver when they saw the turbines going out and asked the Federal Government for a temporary emergency waiver to juice up their horrible clean burning natural gas plants. EPA rule for Texas says something along the lines of ?if you increase hydrocarbon energy production you also have to increase so called renewable energy by an equal amount.?

They were not allowed to ramp up to keep the grid up and it went down.

And speaking of renewable energy, the process of the earth making oil/nat gas is the original renewable energy. Been going on for millions of years and will continue as long as there is organic matter living on earth, particularly the oceans. Anyone interested should dig into it. We haven?t even tapped into a small portion of what?s been made, let alone the oil and gas continuously being made by the earth. By definition of renewable, that fits it to a T.

Well I was going to add something but then I would be breaking my selfimposed rule of no politics. But you are on the correct track!

[Dawg_Lover]

Severe threat starting to wind down. Front is now pushing through the state. And before you ask, I have no idea why things busted. The cap broke so storms should have immediately gone severe but they just didn't. They tried. I'll at least give them that. Did see a couple wall clouds but that was it. But between not seeing any really good storms and my live stream laying a hot steaming corn filled deuce on the mattress, this was a pretty forgettable chase.


Not a complete bust. You now have 724 subscribers ..... WooHoo! 🙌

[Commercecomet24]

Not a complete bust. You now have 724 subscribers ..... WooHoo! 🙌

Only 276 more to go to get to 1000.

[Dawg_Lover]

Only 276.


??

[Commercecomet24]

??

They only need 276 to get to the 1000 subscribers they need

[RocketDawg]

There was some damage in the Huntsville metro, but not sure how bad. Also not sure if it was tornado or straight line winds, but there was a tornado warning at the time. My neighborhood siren didn't sound, and we were at the center of the warning.

[Dawg_Lover]

They only need 276 to get to the 1000 subscribers they need


I swear I am beginning to worry about myself today. I only read, only 276. Good grief! Sorry Commerce. My Alzheimer?s must be acting up today. 🥴

[Dawg_Lover]

They only need 276 to get to the 1000 subscribers they need


Okay, I see where it was edited. Maybe, there is hope for me after all. whew...

[Commercecomet24]

Okay, I see where it was edited. Maybe, there is hope for me after all. whew...

Lol I didn't complete the post the first time. My bad.

[parabrave]

Dang NWS forecasting light snow in Oxford north.

[RocketDawg]

Dang NWS forecasting light snow in Oxford north.

We have a winter weather advisory for tonight, for an inch or so.

[DownwardDawg]

We have a winter weather advisory for tonight, for an inch or so.

Me too up here in Nashville. Looking at the radar I'd say it's gonna snow pretty hard all evening. Then Thursday is looking like a good bit of snow. I finally live somewhere that actually gets a winter.

[OLJWales]

Me too up here in Nashville. Looking at the radar I'd say it's gonna snow pretty hard all evening. Then Thursday is looking like a good bit of snow. I finally live somewhere that actually gets a winter.

I'm 58 and still play in snow & do donuts in parking lots.

Keep in mind though many times you drive as if you have NO Breaks. Stay Safe.

[DownwardDawg]

I'm 58 and still play in snow & do donuts in parking lots.

Keep in mind though many times you drive as if you have NO Breaks. Stay Safe.

Same here brother. I love snow still at 54!! Unfortunately, I do have to drive in it and I'm most worried about all the other drivers in the road.

[OLJWales]

Same here brother. I love snow still at 54!! Unfortunately, I do have to drive in it and I'm most worried about all the other drivers in the road.

How much experience you have driving on it?

[DownwardDawg]

How much experience you have driving on it?

Not much but some. I've been unfortunate enough to absolutely have to drive during all the snow/icing events in Mississippi, which isn't many. I lived a few years in Atlanta so I got some experience there. I've always had 4 wheel drives and enjoy off-roading so I have tons of experience on slippery surfaces but I understand it's completely different.
Fortunately, I drive an extremely heav vehicle that is full time all wheel drive, even when it's not locked into 4 wheel drive. It has low range and 3 locking differentials but I've been told to leave it in all wheel drive and do not lock the diffs.

[OLJWales]

Not much but some. I've been unfortunate enough to absolutely have to drive during all the snow/icing events in Mississippi, which isn't many. I lived a few years in Atlanta so I got some experience there. I've always had 4 wheel drives and enjoy off-roading so I have tons of experience on slippery surfaces but I understand it's completely different.
Fortunately, I drive an extremely heav vehicle that is full time all wheel drive, even when it's not locked into 4 wheel drive. It has low range and 3 locking differentials but I've been told to leave it in all wheel drive and do not lock the diffs.

Yea you have a great truck it seems and not totally alien to ice. I've always started out hitting the gas slightly to get an idea as to what your dealing with. Traffic complicate as most accidents seem to be rear enders cuz folks not keeping enough distance and
not understanding how much braking performance they've lost.

[DownwardDawg]

Yea you have a great truck it seems and not totally alien to ice. I've always started out hitting the gas slightly to get an idea as to what your dealing with. Traffic complicate as most accidents seem to be rear enders cuz folks not keeping enough distance and
not understanding how much braking performance they've lost.

Yea. If everyone would just slow waaayyy down and pay close attention then things would be much better. But people gonna people. There will be people driving tonight like it's sunny and 70 degrees out. Until they hit a curve or run up on another accident in the road.

[OLJWales]

Before I got better, I learned the hard way '89 or '91 or so in Memphis living right off that Poplar Pike Germantown Exit area. Short Steep downhill drop exiting out of the apartment complex and never felt so out of control. Scared the hell out of me and how my car missed crashing into the fire hydrant I'll never know.

Got to know George Kline while living there. We'd bump into one another on occasion and BS Some. Elvis stories & Shit.

[DownwardDawg]

Before I got better, I learned the hard way '89 or '91 or so in Memphis living right off that Poplar Pike Germantown Exit area. Short Steep downhill drop exiting out of the apartment complex and never felt so out of control. Scared the hell out of me and how my car missed crashing into the fire hydrant I'll never know.

Got to know George Kline while living there. We'd bump into one another on occasion and BS Some. Elvis stories & Shit.
That's awesome man. Several years ago in the snowpocalypse in the Hattiesburg area, I drove an FJ cruiser with lift kit and mud grips. Wife was driving all over in her BMW like nothing. I backed out the garage and proceeded to slide down the driveway into my wife's azaleas. I promptly shifted into 4 wheel drive and crawled back into the garage. That's when I realized that driving was simple. It was stopping that was the problem!!!

[parabrave]

That's awesome man. Several years ago in the snowpocalypse in the Hattiesburg area, I drove an FJ cruiser with lift kit and mud grips. Wife was driving all over in her BMW like nothing. I backed out the garage and proceeded to slide down the driveway into my wife's azaleas. I promptly shifted into 4 wheel drive and crawled back into the garage. That's when I realized that driving was simple. It was stopping that was the problem!!!

I used to live in the upstate of SC. We learned that in Jan/Feb you didn't drive if you didn't need to. The roads remained frozen for those months. Anyone ever drive I40 in the around Asheville will Notice on the downhill slopes turnoffs to nowhere, These are for Tractor trailers who lose control on the Interstates.

[RougeDawg]

Well I was going to add something but then I would be breaking my selfimposed rule of no politics. But you are on the correct track!

Can?t remember who posted the policy on Twitter last year but it was crazy to read. Government literally let people die. The entire outage could have been prevented and the attempt was made and blocked. Crazy world we live in.

[parabrave]

Can?t remember who posted the policy on Twitter last year but it was crazy to read. Government literally let people die. The entire outage could have been prevented and the attempt was made and blocked. Crazy world we live in.

Hey Rouge if you want to start a thread about this matter on the BS Forum I give you my theories, from overheard phone conversations between multi Billionaires.

[RougeDawg]

Thanks for the info Stark.

We had a tornado just south of us yesterday around 5:20. Kept watching radar and saw the cell approaching. Was still in the stand and had my exit plan. Could hear it coming like a slow rolling train. Passed somewhere between moccasin creek and Aberdeen marina. Not sure it touched down. Thought it was just hard rain coming but it didn?t start raining hard until it has passed.

Oh and I got an alert on phone after it had passed as well. Not the first time that has happened. Still have to rely on your own ears.

[OLJWales]

Can?t remember who posted the policy on Twitter last year but it was crazy to read. Government literally let people die. The entire outage could have been prevented and the attempt was made and blocked. Crazy world we live in.

To be honest that post made me google today and I'm not convinced reliance on windmills was the main cause of the 6 days of suffering me and my family went thru. Equipment failure due to prolonged Artic Air combined with being unprepared for the huge spike in natural gas demand and logistics of getting shit where it needed to be. I need maybe to read up more and I'm a drill baby drill guy but not seeing windmills as the main culprit that screwed me HARD.

[Extendedcab]

Light snow in Madison this afternoon, even heard a little thunder! It was 83 yesterday and now in the 30's with light snow all within 24 hours!

[RocketDawg]

To be honest that post made me google today and I'm not convinced reliance on windmills was the main cause of the 6 days of suffering me and my family went thru. Equipment failure due to prolonged Artic Air combined with being unprepared for the huge spike in natural gas demand and logistics of getting shit where it needed to be. I need maybe to read up more and I'm a drill baby drill guy but not seeing windmills as the main culprit that screwed me HARD.

They should've had heaters on the wind turbines. It gets cold in Texas, just about the entire state.